Black Friday and Blu-ray: Do or Die?

[J_UNTITLED]

From Variety...

"... This year, however, stakes are even higher given the uncertainty surrounding Blu-ray: Execs are hoping that low player prices will drive purchases and help the high-def format take off at last.

The big question is whether these prices will entice converts in a roiling retail climate. Blu-ray player prices will certainly reach new lows on Black Friday: Wal-Mart will be selling a Magnavox Blu-ray player below $130, while rival mass merchant K-Mart is selling a Sony Blu-ray machine for $179. Mass merchants have also steeply discounted Blu-ray discs to entice shoppers during the official kickoff to the holiday gift-buying frenzy.

The importance of Blu-ray cannot be overstated. Studios need the format to offset sales declines in the aging DVD format. Homevid declines are pinching studios that have come to rely on the coin to cover production and marketing costs of their theatrical releases. Digital sales, while also growing, are even smaller than Blu-ray sales at this point, and considered unlikely to substantially eat into disc sales for a few years.

Because standard DVD sales dwarf those for Blu-ray, strong sales in that format are even more crucial on a title-by-title basis during the holiday period. To boost DVD sales, studios have ramped up their promotions.

Paramount, for example, took the unusual step of placing a $5 coupon for "Kung Fu Panda" purchases in full-page ads in the New York Times and Los Angeles Times late last week. The promotion is all the more notable because the studio had already bundled "Kung Fu Panda" with the separate "Secrets of the Furious Five" disc to boost sales.

Massive retail pushes also are expected for "The Dark Knight" when it arrives on disc Dec. 9, and studios have churned out lavish gift sets by the scores, even for recent movies such as "300" and "I Am Legend."

However, despite all these promotional efforts, home entertainment execs do not expect holiday sales to make up for soft sales earlier in the year. The Digital Entertainment Group recently projected a 3%-4% decline in overall homevid sales worldwide this year and a 6% drop in DVD sales. The homevid biz, which posted its first substantial spending decline last year, had hoped for a turnaround by the end of this year but now projects that a return to growth is at least a year away (Daily Variety, Nov. 17)."

[andyman1970]

Interesting. Guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

[TheForce8686]

I've heard Due or Die for Holiday 2007, after the death of HD-DVD, for Iron Man, for Transformers, For Holiday 2008, etc.

Is it ever gonna end?

[bhampton]

No... it will always be do or die.

It's natural.

=Brian

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by bhampton

No... it will always be do or die.

It's natural.

=Brian

It will be DO!

[xtop]

if its so do or die, where are the good sales?

give me a break

[benricci]

Do or die? The format's barely 2 years old and gaining market share every day. Do these people really think that if sales aren't spectacular this holiday season that all the studios will close up shop on their hi-def output?

Give me a break...

[dialog_gvf]

The importance of Blu-ray cannot be overstated. Studios need the format to offset sales declines in the aging DVD format. Homevid declines are pinching studios that have come to rely on the coin to cover production and marketing costs of their theatrical releases. Digital sales, while also growing, are even smaller than Blu-ray sales at this point, and considered unlikely to substantially eat into disc sales for a few years.

I'm not sure how this translates to a do or die situation.

It's not logical to think that the studios are both desperate that Blu-ray catches on, and would be willing to abandon the push for some other pie in the sky concept if it doesn't generate adoption rates that are excessive to the normal adoption curve.

Blu-ray is at or even ahead of DVD at the same point after launch. And DVD didn't have a bunch of pundits going around saying how VHS was good enough, or nobody can see the difference, or that downloads were taking over next week.

Certainly there is major pain possible for the studios. The HDM war and the continuing attempts to suppress Blu-ray adoption probably has it behind where it could have been, and thus the studios revenues are lower than they could have been.

But, Universal, Paramount and Warner caused some of that pain themselves.

Gary

[LifeOfAPirate13]

And what are these studios doing when movies like Batman are grossing a Billion dollars worldwide? My guess would be wiping their @$$ with it I guess, I mean are they going to keep crying because economically the USA is in a rough spot this year and their sales are at a 4% decrease. You also gotta love how they dont really mention how much blu-ray has gained but only how home vid and DVD sales are down. With the amount of blu-rays people have bought on this website alone how can they be crying about money? They are just greedy and they wont stop making blu's IF THEY ARE SMART

[MountainBlu]

This is not "Do or Die". That war has already been fought and won.

Seems like every week the media report of a new threat to Blu-ray. What will it be next week? "Hasbro unveiling a new "Viewmaster 5000?!"

"Oh no, its the end of Blus!"

The media like to blow stuff out of proportion whenever it is a slow news day.

[benricci]

"Do or die" implies some sort of extreme consequence (like studios abandoning the format and dismissing it as an outright failure) if blu-ray doesn't do phenomenally well this holiday season.

That's just not the case. This is more of a "do or keep doing" situation.

[FendersRule]

Originally Posted by benricci

Do or die? The format's barely 2 years old and gaining market share every day. Do these people really think that if sales aren't spectacular this holiday season that all the studios will close up shop on their hi-def output?

Give me a break...

This. This post.

[Anthony P]

I'm not sure how this translates to a do or die situation.

my guess it is like this

Guy at studio: DVD sales are dropping and it is important that BD keeps increasing so that we end up with status quo

inside HD DVD fan boys head box 1: DVD sales are dropping... it is important that BD... increases...

HD DVD tries to remeber what was said: sales are dropping, BD is not growing fast enough

HD DVD fanboy rwrites: BD do or die.

[Beast]

Originally Posted by bhampton

No... it will always be do or die.

It's natural.

=Brian

Indeed.

It's almost like they simply change the date and a few of the facts on most of these stories.

[Trip]

It looks like some great deals on players. The Sony 350 for $179 is a steal, but I would stay away from the no name players.

Software is a disappointment so far. I was hoping that there would be more quality titles to be had for less than $15. So far all I have seen in that range are the same ones that have been around all year.

Sleeping Beauty at $18.95 is a buyer for me.

[jk1138]

When the majority of B&M stores are selling newer titles for $30, then I have no doubt they will not sell. I passed at all the stores for Fred Claus because the cheapest I could find was Wal-Mart at $29.97, sorry that is a HUGE no sale for me, I will not spend more than $25 on any single movie BD, not going to happen. In most cases I will not spend more than $20. So when store are selling them for $30 I shake my head, and get them used one eBay/Amazon for far less than $20. I got Speed Racer for the kids for $12.49 shipped on Amazon, the cheapest I could find in in a B&M store was $25. I do not berate them for selling to make a profit, but $30 is just WAY too much.

[STARSCREAM]

Weak. I'm so sick of hearing this crap. Blu-ray ain't going anywhere. Like others have said as well, slow sales are their own fault for having movies priced at $30 and above.