HD DVD / Walmart - A New Angle

[JadedRaverLA]

(Note: My first post here. I have a "strong" feeling that after posting this at AVSForum, my days there are definitely numbered. Hopefully, I'll find a friendlier attitude here.)

Yet another update to the most misreported (or at least mistranslated) story of the year:

As has been reported here (and everywhere else) Engadget got ahold of a press release, apparently from Chinese manufacturer Fuh Yuan, indicating that Walmart had placed an order for 2,000,000 HD DVD players, which was then later retracted due to an odd translation, leading some to think that Walmart was instead ordering Blu-ray players. What remained odd was that no press release was ever issued by Walmart, the HD DVD or Blu-ray promotions groups, or anyone else who would be involved. Fuh Yuan also failed to clarify this "story" and industry "insiders" posting on internet messageboards had no idea what was happening.

A CED Industry Newsletter that was posted in the news section here, is now apparently reporting the following:

Sources we queried who are familiar with HD DVD licensing and Chinese OEMs were flummoxed by the reports. Neither Fuh Yuan nor Great Wall appear on any rosters of DVD and HD DVD licensees. Our search of major English-language newspapers and news services in Taiwan, China and Hong Kong didn't turn up any reports on Fuh Yuan or Great Wall or the purported deal with Wal-Mart. From translations of the Fuh Yuan announcement we've seen, it was part of a ramp-up for an IPO the company will launch in July.

And now Engadget has posted a retraction of the earlier article here

The biggest news to hit the format war in some time hit last week with word that Wal-Mart and China's Great Wall corporation struck a deal to bring inexpensive HD DVD players to market. While this is would be great news for all HD fans, we were left a bit worrisome by the translation dispute between the two camps. Just to make sure we had our facts straight, we updated the post and contacted HD DVD to get the full story. While the HD DVD camp reminded us that they have inexpensive players from China on the way, they weren't able to confirm any "specific reports relating to Wal-Mart". It seems to us that if this were indeed true, that the HD DVD camp would be the first to trumpet its significance to their success in the format war. As much as we all want inexpensive next generation HD disc players, we will just have to wait for something more official before we hold off on our purchases waiting for Wal-Mart.

So, who knows what's going on with this? As much attention as this has gotten, it really doesn't bode well for the integrity of Engadget that they've essentially retracted this story twice: once to say it "might" be Blu-ray players, and now a second time saying the whole deal might not exist.

Could this release have been the optimistic writings of a pre-IPO Chinese company that HOPES to get enough money in an IPO to produce HD DVD players, which they THINK they can make very cheaply, and that they HOPE to sell to Walmart? That's definitely a different story, altogether.

UPDATE: Walmart and Fuh Yuan both discredit the original story!

Well, today was interesting. First, Fuh Yuan posted this correction (in English) on their website:

We are sorry to correct the statement that we have two million HD-DVD players order from Wal-Mart and manufactured by China Great Wall Group. The actuality is that we had not received yet. We are asked to provide the schedule to Wal-Mart and cost to determine the quantity even more than two million, if the cost is good enough and timing is correct. So the capacity is under consideration. Any qualified manufactured base group will be welcome.

And then, PC Mag spoke with Walmart and reported:

Wal-Mart denied rumors that it had placed a substantial order with a Taiwan supplier for ultra-cheap HD DVD players that could swing the format wars in that direction.

A spokesperson for the company said Thursday that reported leaks concerning Taiwan-based consumer electronics manufacturer, Fuh Yuan, partnering with TDK in China to manufacture the $250-299 players, had no merit.

"The article… was full of inaccuracies and we had no participation in it," the spokesman said in an e-mail to PC Magazine. "Most of the facts, including the purchase, were untrue," she added. "Not sure how it originated."

So, it appears that no deal exists -- and Walmart reiterated their "format neutral" stance. That must be a tough pill to swallow for "certain" people.

[LeoneFan]

What do you guys think of this?

http://www.ps3forums.com/showthread.php?t=70022

[JadedRaverLA]

I tried to post the story here--I'm the one who posted it there and at AVS forum, but my posts apparently have to be reviewed first. If it lets me post a reponse at least, here's what I posted at AVS Forum.


Mod: what followed was JadedRaverLA's previous post, (see above) which was waiting to be reviewed

.

[Shin-Ra]

It's the first believable account of the situation I've read.

[LeoneFan]

Sorry Jaded, didn't mean to steal your thunder. I didn't even know you posted here. Maybe the mods can delete my post and make your post the main thread starter.

[GasCat]

Excerpt - "industry "insiders" posting on internet messageboards had no idea what was happening."

That's not what I read. Some stayed quiet but a number of HD-DVD "experts" were trumpeting the announcement.

This is a common tactic by small companies to boost their stock prices but Walmart usually states they are incorrect. Walmart had a chance to correct the story but said nothing. For that reason I now believe that there may be something in the works.

They need to make an official announcement. Their stockholders deserve to know the truth.

[Deciazulado]

Not your fault LeoneFan, his posts were being reviewed
Thread merged with JadedRaverLA posts.


JadedRaverLA thanks for the info

[JadedRaverLA]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

Sorry Jaded, didn't mean to steal your thunder. I didn't even know you posted here. Maybe the mods can delete my post and make your post the main thread starter.

No problem at all. FWIW, it looks like they already did that.

This is the first time I've tried "breaking" the same story in three different places. It's interesting to see the different reactions.

[joeorc]

this was my response to this news on eproductwars.com

joeorc responds on 2007-04-24 17:10:19.0: how do you lower the cost of a blu-ray drive this is how.... There has recently been a rapid increase in blue-violet laser diode demand, for use in devices such as Blu-ray Disc (hereafter BD) players or game consoles. To meet this demand, Sony had already installed front-end wafer process equipment capable of producing 5 million blue-violet laser diodes (BD playback-only equivalent) per month. Sony Shiroishi will strengthen its post-process assembly capacity depending on future demand. 5 million diodes a month..where are these going HD-DVD player's an drives....right gotcha.... the people who keep touting these are "HD DVD drives from walmart" just may be in for a big shock..don't say i did'nt warn you...

joeorc responds on 2007-04-24 19:08:16.0: kind of puts this in perspective: lets see what Walmarts PR has to say about the "CHEAP HD-DVD PLAYERS" Wal-Mart Enters HD Packaged Media in Earnest Author: ERIK GRUENWEDEL egruenwedel@questex.com Posted: April 20, 2007 Melissa OBrien, senior manager of corporate communications for merchandise, said the chain will carry Sonys new Blu-ray player when it is released. Wal-Mart also stocks Sonys PlayStation 3 game console, which includes a Blu-ray drive. well miss O'Brien what new blu-ray player may that be....? the HD-DVD GUY'S ARE JUMPING FOR JOY OVER 2 MILLION.....o_O 5 MILLION BLUE LASER DIODES..GEE I WONDER WHERE THOSE DIODES ARE GOING...? hehehehehe.....
DIODES GOING TO DRUM ROLL PLEASE...BLU-RAY PLAYERS...

joeorc responds on 2007-04-24 19:12:40.0: JUST IN CASE YOU MISSED THAT THAT'S (5 MILLION A MONTH) JUST FOR PLAYERS AN ...SOMETHING LIKE THE PLAYSTATION 3..that sony can produce a month.....( Sony Shiroishi has established industry-leading monthly production capacity of 1.7 million blue-violet laser diodes as of April 2007, and has already made preparations to further reinforce production capacity based on future demand.) (for use in devices such as Blu-ray Disc (hereafter BD) players or game consoles) key word (players) 5 million a month.. an they IE: THE HD-DVD FANBOY'S are jumping for joy OVER .2 million.... ..meh..

an finaly i pose this Q:

THIS CHINESE COMPANY JUST STARTED.PRODUCEING blue laser type drives..which ever...blu-ray /HD-DVD...DOES'NT REALY MATTER....CAN THIS FIRM PRODUCE 1.7 MILLION diodes per month to put into the drives an how many can they produce PER MONTH if they can't. ..LET ALONE (5) MILLION...if it took SONY this long WERE TALKING YEARS to produce 1.7 MILLION a month how long will it take them to get to that point...?

[Dave]

This whole thing is huge FUD from the hddvd headquarters. It will never happen! Just watch!

[dialog_gvf]

Rob Enderle stated that Wal-mart has declared HD DVD the winner, based on this order that may not exist.

So...

(1) Plant some piece of BS that can't be checked easily
(2) Tell people on AVS to trumpet it
(3) Have Rob Enderle assume it to be absolutely true, and write an article based on it and pointing to the AVS buzz.
(4) Have a bunch of other news sources put out articles based on Enderle's

Journalism is truelly dead.

Gary

[JTK]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Rob Enderle stated that Wal-mart has declared HD DVD the winner, based on this order that may not exist.

So...

(1) Plant some piece of BS that can't be checked easily
(2) Tell people on AVS to trumpet it
(3) Have Rob Enderle assume it to be absolutely true, and write an article based on it and pointing to the AVS buzz.
(4) Have a bunch of other news sources put out articles based on Enderle's

Journalism is truelly dead.

Gary

In other words: Same ol' @#$&.

[blublublu]

Why is this a sticky?

[hyperdine]

Even if this were true, one thing the HD-DVD folks seem to be conveniently forgetting, is that Wal-Mart already has HD-DVD players on sale for $349. What difference is fifty bucks going to make on consumer adoption of a brand-X Chinese player?

[marzetta7]

Good post JadedRaverLA. On other forums, I already see that the HD DVD fanboys are trying to spin it and claim that since Wal-mart hasn't publicly denied this, that their silence is deafening,...whatever the hell makes them sleep at night.

[dakota81]

Originally Posted by hyperdine

Even if this were true, one thing the HD-DVD folks seem to be conveniently forgetting, is that Wal-Mart already has HD-DVD players on sale for $349. What difference is fifty bucks going to make on consumer adoption of a brand-X Chinese player?

I assume Toshiba is losing money selling players at that price, and cannot continue manufacturing them this cheap.

[theknub]

Originally Posted by dakota81

I assume Toshiba is losing money selling players at that price, and cannot continue manufacturing them this cheap.

there has been reasonable speculation that Tosh has been selling at a loss of $200 a player when they first came out, let alone now

[RUR]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

So...

(1) Plant some piece of BS that can't be checked easily
(2) Tell people on AVS to trumpet it
(3) Have Rob Enderle assume it to be absolutely true, and write an article based on it and pointing to the AVS buzz.
(4) Have a bunch of other news sources put out articles based on Enderle's

Journalism is truelly dead.

Gary

It's called circular journalism. If you think it's bad now, wait a few years until most of our daily papers have died of neglect and the only source of news available is this sort of irresponsible, re-packaged sound-byte.

If you like mystery, check out Fuh Yuan's website. Can't speak to the chinese side (literally!), but the english side has NO news and little substance of any kind.

Ken

[mikey p]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

(2) Tell people on AVS to trumpet it
(3) Have Rob Enderle assume it to be absolutely true, and write an article based on it and pointing to the AVS buzz.

Journalism is truelly dead.

Gary

Well it is MSAVS, right?

[hyperdine]

Originally Posted by theknub

there has been reasonable speculation that Tosh has been selling at a loss of $200 a player when they first came out, let alone now

That's simply not a business model that anybody can afford to support indefinitely (even if you're in partnership with MS). Selling things at a loss only makes strategic sense if you are actually going to turn a profit some day. Stock holders and Wall Street can only put up with these silly tactics for so long before they start to get antsy.

I'm not just picking on Toshiba, either. Sony is doing the same thing with the PS3. The difference is, it's a sure bet that the PS3 will eventually turn a profit. Contrast that to HD-DVD, which is a HUGE gamble. That's why the "street" is a little forgiving when Sony posts huge losses due to their machine. They know they can recoup the cost tenfold. Toshiba doesn't have the luxury of doing the same thing.