GfK predict Blu-ray Disc sales to reach $2.9bn in 2009!

[Maximus]

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/hig...-dollars-14428

Sales of Blu-ray titles are projected to increase 150% to $2.9 billion this year from $1.1 billion in 2008, according to research firm Media Control GfK International. That’s nearly twice the $1.5 billion generated by digital last year, which included VOD and broadband.

Blu-ray is projected to reach 11% of packaged-media penetration by the end of the year, up from 4% in 2008, according the Media Control.

BD pricing dropped 14% in 2008 to an average retail price of $28.93, which still represented a $13.19 premium on standard DVDs, according to Media Control.

This number should be quite useful for all of you number people!

[Blaumann]

There are several estimates about the 2008 US Blu-ray sales, e.g. the 750 mil. US$ estimate from DEG for sellthrough and rental combined in the US. This is the highest one i've seen so far. Is there any way to determine, if this numbers ($1.1 billion) is rather accurate and for the US only?

[Maximus]

Worldwide figures.

[Blaumann]

Ahh that makes sense, thanks!

[Grubert]

Another prediction, with a pretty graph:

Packaged media to remain flat through 2012
Futuresource: Digital, mobile will lift home entertainment

JAN. 30 | Despite the prevailing belief among studios that Blu-ray Disc will offset declines in standard DVD enough to return home entertainment to growth in 2010, Futuresource offers a more sobering outlook.

The research concern believes packaged media—DVD and Blu-ray—will remain a flat business at least through 2012, with the home entertainment industry’s growth fueled solely by online and mobile distribution.

Futuresource agrees with studio estimates that Blu-ray will triple its revenue in 2009. But the format’s pace still will be just fast enough to counter standard DVD’s slide, creating a flat packaged media business between 2009 and 2012.

The industry won’t again reach its peak revenue—achieved in 2006—until 2012, when mobile and online digital revenue will account for 15% of total home entertainment spending, Futuresource predicts. At that time, home entertainment will encompass $20 billion in packaged media and $3.5 billion in digital revenue.

In a spot check of studios, Warner Home Video confirmed it believes that DVD and Blu-ray revenue will return home entertainment to growth by 2010. Other studios didn’t respond by deadline.

Analysts at Futuresource note that one obstacle keeping Blu-ray from an even steeper climb is the fact that it doesn’t represent as dramatic of an upgrade from DVD as DVD did from VHS.

“We are projecting strong Blu-ray growth, but it’s not enough to stem DVD,” said Mai Hoang, Futuresource senior market analyst. “In reality, not all consumers will be completely replacing all video titles with Blu-ray. The format transition is a harder sell than it was when going from VHS to DVD.”

Another factor curbing spending is software pricing, especially in catalog.

Catalog titles often carry a 200% to 400% price tag premium over their steeply discounted standard DVD counterparts. Relatively stronger Blu-ray new releases generally carry a 25% to 50% premium over standard DVD versions, according to Futuresource.

“We see new release pricing as fairly reasonable,” said Hoang. “But with 200% to 400% premium on catalog, these titles have been struggling to move significant volume.”

However, fast declining hardware prices are expected to significantly strengthen Blu-ray’s installation base by 2012. Futuresource reports that by then, 62 million Blu-ray stand-alone players will be in homes, as well as 25 million Blu-ray-capable PlayStation 3 consoles. Following $250 average Blu-ray set-top pricing in 2008, tags should be further shaved to $199 in 2009 and $77 in 2012.

Futuresource doesn’t expect the current recession to notably curb the format’s progress. And eventually, software pricing will likely fall to ramp up demand.

“We don’t see the economy having a significantly negative impact,” Hoang said. “There will be an element there, but it won’t be significant. Software prices are going to decline and that will aid in the format moving.”

Compared to Blu-ray, digital adoption will be a much more gradual process, according to Futuresource. Consumers will begin to embrace it more as known brands expand their digital offerings. For example, Netflix and Amazon have recently begun offering streams and downloads on top of their traditional online DVD mail-order businesses.

“Amazon.com and Netflix have an existing relationship with customers and can target them with value-added video service,” said Hoang. “LG and Samsung Blu-ray players [now offering Netflix service] will also drive online going forward.”

Additionally, studios such as Warner and 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment are bowing more titles for video-on-demand at the same time as the DVD releases, contributing further to consumer digital acceptance.

Quickening broadband speeds within the next several years also should boost consumer digital sales, according to Futuresource.

Video Business

Interesting forecasts. However (as usual with Susanne Ault), there's an obvious anti-BD slant. BD is going to grow a lot more than digital, but digital is saving home video from stagnation?

[Clark Kent]

I think analysts are being too conservative in their projections for dvd's decline. The marketplace has changed and the pace of change is faster than ever. Once enough consumers realize the format is a dead duck with no future they will drop it faster than a hot iron.

[tacomaprime]

If all the movies coming out this summer come out on blu by the end of the year, I will definitely be helping out that number.

[Anthony P]

150% increase sounds small

[VHS4Ever]

Great news for Blu-ray.