Sony Pictures CEO Says DVD Tough to Replace

[blu2]

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/son...-replace-15453

Despite a decline in DVD sellthough — offset by growing Blu-ray Disc sales — through the first quarter in 2009, Sony Pictures Entertainment co-chairman and CEO Michael Lynton says he is optimistic technology will produce a successor that isn’t necessarily Blu-ray or electronic.

Hmmmm. Neither optical or electronic would be quite a feat.

[Blu-Dog]

Originally Posted by blu2

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/son...-replace-15453



Hmmmm. Neither optical or electronic would be quite a feat.

Outdoor stage plays, maybe?

From reading the article, it appears that he's dreaming about double-dipping everyone's current DVD library, a fool's errand if there ever was one.

Oh, well.

[Dynamo of Eternia]

Originally Posted by Blu-Dog

Outdoor stage plays, maybe?

From reading the article, it appears that he's dreaming about double-dipping everyone's current DVD library, a fool's errand if there ever was one.

Oh, well.

I agree.

The real problem that studios will have to face sooner or later is that there will come a point where they won't be able to rely as much on making money from their catalog titles as they have in the past.


While Blu-Ray is (IMO) a really big leap over DVD in terms of PQ and AQ, it still isn't as big of a leap as VHS to DVD was in terms of functionality.

With VHS you typically didn't have bonus features, and you'd have to fast forward or rewind through the entire tape to get to a certain point in the movie if you wanted to.

DVD gave people the ability to randomly access the different parts of the movie and many bonus features without having to shift through everything else just to get there.

While Blu-Ray has added some additional functionality (i.e. BD Live and being able to access the menus for the extras while watching the movie), it's still not as big of a leap.


But that isn't even the biggest issue.

Even IF Blu-Ray were to become a mega-hit format in which everyone were to go out and rebuy all of their DVDs for the additional PQ, AQ, etc, I think that once Blu-Ray has saturated the market, its going to be really hard to convince people to upgrade again.


The picture quality of Blu-Ray (when working with a proper transfer of a movie), almost looks like being there. Now, I'm not saying there's no more room for improvement in the picture with a future format, but I doubt it can get THAT much better. At least not without having a super-huge TV to watch it on to make the extra resolution worth while (and so huge that most people would never end up owning one anyway due to both the really high price and a lack of a place to put it).

And even if I am wrong, and there is a lot of room for improvement on average-sized HDTV sets, the point is that sooner or later we will pretty much max-out how good the PQ and AQ can get, at which point there will be little reason to rebuy movies in a future format that you already have in that format, regardless of whether we are talking about a physical format or some form of downloads.


And as the article points out, there will be problems with getting people to buy downloads compared to physical media.

As it states, people have often bought and rented DVDs that they didn't actually end up watching. I know that with my large collection of DVDs and Blu-Rays (about 1,000 DVDs and just shy of 100 Blu-Rays), this has happened to me, esspecially when many TV show season sets come out around the same time as each other that I want to add to my collection. But I know that I have the physical media and can watch it whenever I want.



With downloads (particularly rental-style downloads), people will not pay for them until they are ready to watch them.

And actually, the ready to watch them rule may even apply for download 'purchases'.

Currently, I have pretty much all of the Blu-Rays and DVDs that I want that are coming out in the next month preordered (mostly through wherehouse.com thanks to their recent 20% off promotion). I can't say that I would ever consider doing the same with a download purchase (assuming those were even preorderable). And odds are I wouldn't even purchase a lot of them on the day of release.

Instead, I would likely buy them when I am ready to watch them. Mainly because downloads worry me in terms of DRM and the possibility of the hard drive in the storage device crashing somehow. I would be much more selective on what I purchase in that scenario, since my entire collection could potentially go away if something goes wrong.

And even if we do somehow get DRM-free downloads that I can easily back up and transfer as needed that are higher in PQ and AQ than any previous physical format, it would still be something I buy once and don't buy again if we are pretty much maxed out on how good the PQ and AQ can get.

And I would still hang onto any existing physical format movies that I have as long as they (and the machines that are needed to watch them) continue to work.


The bottom line is that the studios experienced this huge surge in catalog title revenue during the height of DVD's success, and they are now scrambling to replicate that and keep it going indefinately at that same level. But the reality is that no matter what they do, sooner or later, the amount of money they make from catalog releases is going to dwindle down to a much lower amount.

Sure, there will always be at least some money coming in from catalog releases, but it's just completely unrealistic to expect people to keep rebuying the same things over and over again, esspecially once the quality inevitably maxed out.

The stuido are going to have to put more effort into making quality new content to sell to people to stay in business. Sooner or later they will have to realize that they can't keep selling us "the same old Malibu Stacey with a new hat!", esspecially once we get to the point where the 'new hat' isn't to new anymore.

[Clark Kent]

I agree with the responses. The studios are stupid if they really think they will be able to sell all their catalog titles over again at the same rate on Blu-ray.

[Y3k Bug]

Lynton said DVD has been a “gold mine” to Hollywood that average consumers coveted more than they actually consumed. He said typical consumers would regularly purchase and rent multiple titles on DVD that they didn’t necessarily watch.

Really?! I only knew 1 person who bought dvds just to have them. Everyone else I knew/know only bought/rented what they wanted to actually see, and THAT was the a-typical behavior? I'm not so sure I buy that.

[Dynamo of Eternia]

Originally Posted by Y3k Bug

Really?! I only knew 1 person who bought dvds just to have them. Everyone else I knew/know only bought/rented what they wanted to actually see, and THAT was the a-typical behavior? I'm not so sure I buy that.

I think you are missing the point.

People didn't buy (or especially rent) DVDs "just to have them" with no intention of watching them.

What happened a lot is that people might buy or rent several DVDs, and have ones that they just don't get around to watching. They bought/rented them with the full intention of watching, but for one reason or another just never got around to it.

I actually have quite a few DVDs (and even a few Blu-Rays) that I have yet to watch. I do plan to get around to it sooner or later.

The point is that people would buy them to have access to them to watch whenever they would want to, regardless of how long it may take them to get around to it (and in some cases, possibly resulting in them forgetting about them).


But with downloads, people aren't going to be very likely to pay to download something until they are actually ready to sit down and watch it.

With DVDs, you are getting a physical product. With downloads, you are getting intangible data, and for most people, they don't really feel like they actually 'have' something when they aren't watching it in the same way that they do with DVDs or Blu-Rays.

[cregster]

I don't know, but I hear a lot of people here listing various BD they got to replace DVD they had. I've done it.

But, I must also say that the upscaling from my panny BD makes DVD look pretty good. Sound is not the same, but the look is really not bad. Kind of like a not-as-well-made BD

[ckent22]

Originally Posted by Dynamo of Eternia

I agree.

The real problem that studios will have to face sooner or later is that there will come a point where they won't be able to rely as much on making money from their catalog titles as they have in the past.


While Blu-Ray is (IMO) a really big leap over DVD in terms of PQ and AQ, it still isn't as big of a leap as VHS to DVD was in terms of functionality.

With VHS you typically didn't have bonus features, and you'd have to fast forward or rewind through the entire tape to get to a certain point in the movie if you wanted to.

DVD gave people the ability to randomly access the different parts of the movie and many bonus features without having to shift through everything else just to get there.

While Blu-Ray has added some additional functionality (i.e. BD Live and being able to access the menus for the extras while watching the movie), it's still not as big of a leap.


But that isn't even the biggest issue.

Even IF Blu-Ray were to become a mega-hit format in which everyone were to go out and rebuy all of their DVDs for the additional PQ, AQ, etc, I think that once Blu-Ray has saturated the market, its going to be really hard to convince people to upgrade again.


The picture quality of Blu-Ray (when working with a proper transfer of a movie), almost looks like being there. Now, I'm not saying there's no more room for improvement in the picture with a future format, but I doubt it can get THAT much better. At least not without having a super-huge TV to watch it on to make the extra resolution worth while (and so huge that most people would never end up owning one anyway due to both the really high price and a lack of a place to put it).

And even if I am wrong, and there is a lot of room for improvement on average-sized HDTV sets, the point is that sooner or later we will pretty much max-out how good the PQ and AQ can get, at which point there will be little reason to rebuy movies in a future format that you already have in that format, regardless of whether we are talking about a physical format or some form of downloads.


And as the article points out, there will be problems with getting people to buy downloads compared to physical media.

As it states, people have often bought and rented DVDs that they didn't actually end up watching. I know that with my large collection of DVDs and Blu-Rays (about 1,000 DVDs and just shy of 100 Blu-Rays), this has happened to me, esspecially when many TV show season sets come out around the same time as each other that I want to add to my collection. But I know that I have the physical media and can watch it whenever I want.



With downloads (particularly rental-style downloads), people will not pay for them until they are ready to watch them.

And actually, the ready to watch them rule may even apply for download 'purchases'.

Currently, I have pretty much all of the Blu-Rays and DVDs that I want that are coming out in the next month preordered (mostly through wherehouse.com thanks to their recent 20% off promotion). I can't say that I would ever consider doing the same with a download purchase (assuming those were even preorderable). And odds are I wouldn't even purchase a lot of them on the day of release.

Instead, I would likely buy them when I am ready to watch them. Mainly because downloads worry me in terms of DRM and the possibility of the hard drive in the storage device crashing somehow. I would be much more selective on what I purchase in that scenario, since my entire collection could potentially go away if something goes wrong.

And even if we do somehow get DRM-free downloads that I can easily back up and transfer as needed that are higher in PQ and AQ than any previous physical format, it would still be something I buy once and don't buy again if we are pretty much maxed out on how good the PQ and AQ can get.

And I would still hang onto any existing physical format movies that I have as long as they (and the machines that are needed to watch them) continue to work.


The bottom line is that the studios experienced this huge surge in catalog title revenue during the height of DVD's success, and they are now scrambling to replicate that and keep it going indefinately at that same level. But the reality is that no matter what they do, sooner or later, the amount of money they make from catalog releases is going to dwindle down to a much lower amount.

Sure, there will always be at least some money coming in from catalog releases, but it's just completely unrealistic to expect people to keep rebuying the same things over and over again, esspecially once the quality inevitably maxed out.

The stuido are going to have to put more effort into making quality new content to sell to people to stay in business. Sooner or later they will have to realize that they can't keep selling us "the same old Malibu Stacey with a new hat!", esspecially once we get to the point where the 'new hat' isn't to new anymore.

I agree with a lot of what you say. This isn't the first time that I've heard someone high up in a studio say essentially that Blu-ray is a transitioning type piece. Now, I understand that's not exactly what he's saying, but essentially it is if something bigger comes a long.

Without rehashing previous threads, I think something digital based on something different than optical media will take over. My guess it will be downloads, but at the same time, it could be completely different.

The one point, I would suggest in your analysis is that some people download music when it comes out even if they don't listen to it immediately. The same might happen if downloading becomes the popular format.

[Mr. Joshua]

Oh the poor actor may have to take a 15% to 25% pay cut and lose some of their perks. Ah, poor baby...

[skygreenleopard]

Originally Posted by Dynamo of Eternia

I agree.

The real problem that studios will have to face sooner or later is that there will come a point where they won't be able to rely as much on making money from their catalog titles as they have in the past.


While Blu-Ray is (IMO) a really big leap over DVD in terms of PQ and AQ, it still isn't as big of a leap as VHS to DVD was in terms of functionality.

With VHS you typically didn't have bonus features, and you'd have to fast forward or rewind through the entire tape to get to a certain point in the movie if you wanted to.

DVD gave people the ability to randomly access the different parts of the movie and many bonus features without having to shift through everything else just to get there.

While Blu-Ray has added some additional functionality (i.e. BD Live and being able to access the menus for the extras while watching the movie), it's still not as big of a leap.


But that isn't even the biggest issue.

Even IF Blu-Ray were to become a mega-hit format in which everyone were to go out and rebuy all of their DVDs for the additional PQ, AQ, etc, I think that once Blu-Ray has saturated the market, its going to be really hard to convince people to upgrade again.


The picture quality of Blu-Ray (when working with a proper transfer of a movie), almost looks like being there. Now, I'm not saying there's no more room for improvement in the picture with a future format, but I doubt it can get THAT much better. At least not without having a super-huge TV to watch it on to make the extra resolution worth while (and so huge that most people would never end up owning one anyway due to both the really high price and a lack of a place to put it).

And even if I am wrong, and there is a lot of room for improvement on average-sized HDTV sets, the point is that sooner or later we will pretty much max-out how good the PQ and AQ can get, at which point there will be little reason to rebuy movies in a future format that you already have in that format, regardless of whether we are talking about a physical format or some form of downloads.


And as the article points out, there will be problems with getting people to buy downloads compared to physical media.

As it states, people have often bought and rented DVDs that they didn't actually end up watching. I know that with my large collection of DVDs and Blu-Rays (about 1,000 DVDs and just shy of 100 Blu-Rays), this has happened to me, esspecially when many TV show season sets come out around the same time as each other that I want to add to my collection. But I know that I have the physical media and can watch it whenever I want.



With downloads (particularly rental-style downloads), people will not pay for them until they are ready to watch them.

And actually, the ready to watch them rule may even apply for download 'purchases'.

Currently, I have pretty much all of the Blu-Rays and DVDs that I want that are coming out in the next month preordered (mostly through wherehouse.com thanks to their recent 20% off promotion). I can't say that I would ever consider doing the same with a download purchase (assuming those were even preorderable). And odds are I wouldn't even purchase a lot of them on the day of release.

Instead, I would likely buy them when I am ready to watch them. Mainly because downloads worry me in terms of DRM and the possibility of the hard drive in the storage device crashing somehow. I would be much more selective on what I purchase in that scenario, since my entire collection could potentially go away if something goes wrong.

And even if we do somehow get DRM-free downloads that I can easily back up and transfer as needed that are higher in PQ and AQ than any previous physical format, it would still be something I buy once and don't buy again if we are pretty much maxed out on how good the PQ and AQ can get.

And I would still hang onto any existing physical format movies that I have as long as they (and the machines that are needed to watch them) continue to work.


The bottom line is that the studios experienced this huge surge in catalog title revenue during the height of DVD's success, and they are now scrambling to replicate that and keep it going indefinately at that same level. But the reality is that no matter what they do, sooner or later, the amount of money they make from catalog releases is going to dwindle down to a much lower amount.

Sure, there will always be at least some money coming in from catalog releases, but it's just completely unrealistic to expect people to keep rebuying the same things over and over again, esspecially once the quality inevitably maxed out.

The stuido are going to have to put more effort into making quality new content to sell to people to stay in business. Sooner or later they will have to realize that they can't keep selling us "the same old Malibu Stacey with a new hat!", esspecially once we get to the point where the 'new hat' isn't to new anymore.

I agree with a lot of this too. After BD, I'm not sure what the next "great leap" in tech is going to be without forcing consumers to either 1) upgrade to even more expensive TVs than the crazy flat screens that we Americans are buying instead of saving up for retirement, or 2) go though a whole different technology route (VR, 3D, glasses, blah blah). Same with audio - once you're achieving almost pristine audio fidelity and 7 channels, who needs more? At least this might secure BD's place in the market long enough to let us buy up decent libraries without having to switch to some new media in 10 years.

I do realize new and better optical storage technologies are being developed right now, but beyond 1080p, what's the use (at least for AV purposes)?