In-Stat: Downloads actually stimulate BD sales, sell less than 1/2 of BD by 2012

[JBlacklow]

I figured I'd post this so the folks who wanted to could be ready when the usual crew breaks out their crazy pills and start lying about the numbers (see my comments below):

Global online video revenue, including DVD rental, is projected to top $4.5 billion by 2012, up 275% from $1.2 billion this year, according to a new report.

In-Stat, a Scottsdale, Ariz.-based media research company, said online DVD rental pioneer Netflix’s hybrid packaged media/streaming business model would lead online video growth in the near term, followed by ad-supported new and repurposed content from television networks.

The report said 90% of U.S. households would be broadband-enabled by 2012, with 94% of those households watching online video. Increased connectivity to portable media devices and growth of in-home networks would contribute to digital entertainment penetration.

Indeed, the report found that 39% of adult respondents intend to purchase or rent DVDs via the Internet by 2012, while more than 54% said they prefer packaged media when buying movies or TV shows.

In-Stat analyst Gerry Kaufhold said younger respondents who regularly view entertainment online nonetheless favored owning packaged media due to the format’s associated artwork and extra content, such as special features.

“That bodes well for Blu-ray,” Kaufhold said.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/new...ticle_id=13325

I'm guessing this will be mikemorel's new article on HDD and/or AVS, with the packaged media parts cut out, but he'll last less than a page before being mocked mercilessly. You see, according to previous reports, the global income from downloads is expected to be $4.5 billion in 2012, while the US income from Blu-ray is expected to be $9.5 billion in 2012.

[CptGreedle]

I have said it before, and I'll say it again...
Digital Downloads and Blu-ray can both coexist perfectly fine. They each cater to different needs and can even boost each other if approached correctly.
Digital downloads will not be replacing optical disc media, at least not any time soon. Blu-ray is here to stay, and this nice little article is another fact that support this.

[dialog_gvf]

^^^ Agreed.

What we are fighting are download vested interests that want to stop Blu so they can have the market for themselves, and the zealots who are desperate to prompt anything not Blu (hence SRT, downloads, Chinese HD DVD, and all the other silly stuff).

Gary

[JadedRaverLA]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

What we are fighting are download vested interests that want to stop Blu so they can have the market for themselves, and the zealots who are desperate to prompt anything not Blu (hence SRT, downloads, Chinese HD DVD, and all the other silly stuff).

Gary

Honestly, I think those still "fighting" are fighting as much just to fight as anything. None of the "vested download interests" is really pursuing an ownership model in a major way to challenge Blu-ray in that realm -- the rental model is far more profitable for them... and they don't have to worry about keeping users files up to date with their latest DRM implementation, etc. Similarly, anyone talking about CH-DVD (or whatever the name is this week) had better live in China. Why the hell is the topic even remotely relavent to the rest of the world? The Chinese government has tried to create their own proprietary videodisc formats before... and, aside from pirates, no one has cared or bought into those formats.

I think its time to give it up (and that applies to both sides)... Blu-ray won. There's no more "battle"... the future is here, and its Blu-ray, and nothing either here or on the horizon is actually looking to challenge that.

[atomik kinder]

Indeed, the report found that 39% of adult respondents intend to purchase or rent DVDs via the Internet by 2012, while more than 54% said they prefer packaged media when buying movies or TV shows.


I find this quote misleading and perhaps confusing. I rent and purchase all of my DVDs (well BDs too) online. If they say DVD isn't it a given that it is a physical media and not a download? I rent my movies from Netflix and buy them from Amazon. Almost 100% of what I buy and rent comes from the internet but is not a download in any way.

[JBlacklow]

HD Digital Titles May Be Delayed by More Than Bandwidth:

That flood of demand for high-definition digital titles may be a little farther off than some studios and content providers had hoped.

Movie-download service Vudu said this week that it will let customers renew high-definition movie titles for $1.99. The company, which offers standard-definition renewals for 99 cents, charges $3.99 to $5.99 for first-time rentals of HD titles.

“In this age of $4-a-gallon gas and ‘staycations,’ we felt that Vudu customers deserved a break,” said Patrick Cosson, the company’s vice president of marketing. Of Vudu’s 6,500 titles, about 200 are available in HD.

With studios such as Lionsgate forecasting U.S. consumers will spend about $1.5 billion on digital downloads and streaming this year, and Blu-ray revenue expected to account for about 4% of the $25 billion home entertainment market, digital delivery of HD films may jump from a negligible number to more than $60 million this year.

Already, Blu-ray revenue has jumped fourfold to more than $200 million this year, despite home entertainment spending being nearly flat at about $10.1 billion, according to data compiled by Video Business and Rentrak.

Meanwhile, Lionsgate said in an earnings call this week that revenue from digital delivery would more than double to about $3.5 billion within the next five years while the continued rise in high-definition TV sales suggests that HD titles will account for a progressively larger share of that total.

Still, the promotion by Vudu, which doesn’t disclose sales or rental figures, suggests that between bandwidth limitations that lengthen the time it takes to download or stream HD titles, the disparate components used to bring digital titles directly to televisions and the general cutback in consumer spending, it may yet be a while before digital delivery of HD titles becomes the norm.

[cakefoo]

Originally Posted by atomik kinder

Indeed, the report found that 39% of adult respondents intend to purchase or rent DVDs via the Internet by 2012, while more than 54% said they prefer packaged media when buying movies or TV shows.


I find this quote misleading and perhaps confusing. I rent and purchase all of my DVDs (well BDs too) online. If they say DVD isn't it a given that it is a physical media and not a download? I rent my movies from Netflix and buy them from Amazon. Almost 100% of what I buy and rent comes from the internet but is not a download in any way.

That's a pretty good point. That $4.5 billion figure isn't just downloads- Netflix alone is going to make up a massive chunk of that- their revenue totaled $1.2 billion in 2007, up from $996 million the previous year and growing.

Just think: some of that online revenue mikemorel is going to credit to DD's is going to be Blu-ray rentals

[Blu Titan]

Q4 of this year will mark the beginning of Blu-ray mass adoption. The CE electronic manufacturers will be looking to make their mark, and the beginning price point for the players will be much lower than last year.

[TheTenth]

"to purchase or rent" : this phrase is the most important as we don't know if 90% would use it to keep the movie or 90% would just rent, which makes the article flawed : if 90% rent movie to buy it on Blu-ray later it's good for shops (online or physical) if 90% buy the movie by download, Blu-ray and retailers lose.

[tron3]

Originally Posted by CptGreedle

I have said it before, and I'll say it again...
Digital Downloads and Blu-ray can both coexist perfectly fine. They each cater to different needs and can even boost each other if approached correctly.
Digital downloads will not be replacing optical disc media, at least not any time soon. Blu-ray is here to stay, and this nice little article is another fact that support this.

+1. Great minds think alike.