Will Blu ray end up like Laser Disc?

[Foaley77]

What do you think?
Reason why is in Australia Laser disc was not very popular I didn't know anyone who had one and you couldn't buy any movies (I think) in Australia. another reason is average people can't tell the difference between SD and HD and people would be happy enough with DVD. I can see why dvd took off so quick better picture ,skip extra's etc but dvd to Blu ray does not seem that much of a gain to the average person in Australia anyway.

I hope i'm wrong because HD looks great


cheers

[zombie]

Well you're right that many people don't see a big enough difference in SD to HD to take much of an interest but I don't think that BD will become nothing more than a niche product like LD was. I suspect it'll simply take a lot longer for BD to catch on than DVD did. The main reason is because of the lack of homes with HDTVs. In the USA, it's estimated that only about 10% of households have HDTVs. To make matters worse, I've read that a large chunk of those same people haven't even bought the set top boxes needed to convert the HD signals so several people are watching SD stretched on their HDTVs. :shock:

[erdega79]

blu ray is supposed to drive hdtv adoption. until now there was little reason to upgrade. People who have seen it have said that it's a bigger jump than vhs to dvd. I don't see it failing anyhow, it has too much going for it including all the major CE companies except a couple

[phloyd]

Something I saw at NAB was interesting in that they were pushing the extra cool menus and Java games and stuff like that so that BD isn't just about HD, it is about a new level of disc interaction.

Still, there is a good chance IMHO that this will be a slow introduction and it will be a long time before it is mainstream.

Cheers!

[erdega79]

yes, it will be fighting plain old dvd and most people are cool with it. I mean, many people watch vhs and listen to vynil today. It won't change overnight and it's for good.

[Mandingo Warrior]

Originally Posted by n2blu

Well you're right that many people don't see a big enough difference in SD to HD to take much of an interest but I don't think that BD will become nothing more than a niche product like LD was. I suspect it'll simply take a lot longer for BD to catch on than DVD did. The main reason is because of the lack of homes with HDTVs. In the USA, it's estimated that only about 10% of households have HDTVs. To make matters worse, I've read that a large chunk of those same people haven't even bought the set top boxes needed to convert the HD signals so several people are watching SD stretched on their HDTVs. :shock:

I read recently that Congress is trying to convert all televsion broadcast network (as well as cable) into only HD signals. Pretty much they want to sell the frequencies of current TV signals to Cell phone companies and WiFi so they can create revenue from themselves... they actually were supposed to pass the bill by 2006 but the cable/network groups have lobbied and said it is not possible till about 2009. Which is true considering most people do not even have HD TV's and as you mentioned many don't have the HD converter.

Personally, i think that as time goes people will have to keep up with technology. Just think that about 30-40 years ago (In India at least) Black and white TV was the norm... and color TV were way too expensive. Now everyone owns at least 1 color tv and vcd/dvd player.

Also, it was not long ago that an average 19" LCD TV would cost a person well over a couple grand, and a plasma... forget about it. Now you can buy a 24" HDTV ready LCD TV monitor through Dell for under $800. Considering the free market society we live in, competition is going to drive prices lower and lower especially on technology goods! It is just a matter of time.

[zombie]

Originally Posted by Mandingo Warrior

Pretty much they want to sell the frequencies of current TV signals to Cell phone companies and WiFi so they can create revenue from themselves

Interesting, I had not heard that. I have heard that there's plans to merge cell phones with mp3 players though.

[thunderhawk]

Yes, the 4th generation of mobile phones as they name it, will be the ultimate entertainment device ever. (They say)
So.. You can imagine a mobile phone + mp3 player + TV + megapixel digital camera in a compact device.

I think it'll be great There are already multiple models of mobile phone with 2 megapixel camera. (not that recommended for prints, but nice to view on your new HDTV(!) )

...And about WiFi, on 3GSM there was a new technology called WiMAX... A lot faster than WiFi and way more 'global'. So you can expect Internet Connection offers from your ISP 'on air'...

[bikky]

the reason laser disc never took off is probably it was very specific, u had to have a LD at home, and disks were expensive.

DVD came out at the right technological time, computers very popular, could watch dvd anywhere on laptops/pc's and sitting room.

also the storage area was great for computer users.

BD's will be exactly the same. How many of you can fit all the MP3's on your pc's on to 1 DVD, even a DL DVD?

But most of you will be able to fit them all onto one BD, even single layer in some cases. i got over 20 gb's of my cd's on my pc *all legit too* and 5 of that on my laptop, but i got less than 23 gig, meaning 1 BD will be great.

Plus you'll get 4 - 5 dvd quality movies per BD(note i'm talking single layer BD), and 25 CD quality rips to a single layer BD, which to laptop users means, carry laptop, and 1 disk when you go away on business/hols/camping whatever, and you get a whole week's worth of movies (not to mention the naughty vids you got hidden in the folder password protected so parents dont see it)

BD's will take off, the companies are probably "quibbling" over standardisation, if they all agree it stops the IEEE body having to step in and ratify a single type, and before they're ready too, if IEEE step in at this stage it could be worse for us, the consumer.

Mind i do wish they'd hurry up, I need to free up disk space badly. and DL BD will be perfect.

and as for slow introductions....

when i started with pc's 40Mb was huge and would last years. then suddenly 200mb is the norm, and in the blink of an eye, 1gb is small, quickly followed by 4gb then 10-20-40 almost skipping 80 to the 100-120-150 marks, now we're all looking at standard 300gb, when 2 years ago we were looking at 80gb. cpu's reaching the 5ghz mark when not so long ago, amd and intel rushed to release the 1ghz. graphics cards, when matrox released the super dooper millenium with 4mb ram, now gfx cards are more powerful than most 3year old pc's.

its an expenential curve me boi's slow to start, then everyone wants one, and manufacturing costs come down due to quantity, meaning more people can afford them.

[Blue]

Laserdisc’s in Australia were horrifically expensive on a reasonable wage you could purchase about 3 a week if you were to spend ALL your wage on Laserdisc’s. They were about $80 over 10 years ago. Although Laserdisc’s had a fantastic audio advantage over video cassette decoders did not become readily available until DVD had well and truly taken off, so there was no big difference between tape and disc.

I totally disagree about the quality of HD. On a 70cm screen (approx 30”) there is little difference, however once a larger size there is quite a big difference one the screen gets larger, especially with video projectors. However most of the screens advertised in Australia as HD are NOT high definition, they will down convert but a 800 x 540 display is not high definition. I take great delight in walking through JB (DVD / Stereo supermarket chain) listening to the highly educated (not) sales force saying anything to make a sale.

Laserdisc’s were also only useful for Video and only playable. Blu Ray will provide an incredible backup for computers as well as the video and most probably audio as well.

[Gorkab]

Originally Posted by Blue

I take great delight in walking through JB (DVD / Stereo supermarket chain) listening to the highly educated (not) sales force saying anything to make a sale.

Sadly, there is the same thing everywhere... Sales force always try to sell anything when we are in a non-specialised shop... One told me that the so called norm "HD Ready" was in fact two tuners inside the TV to receive HDTV in Europe, although there is NO accessible HDTV in Europe, they already have a norm ! Truly, that was excellent... :twisted:

[georgir]

Mandingo Warrior, the bill is to convert analog broadcasts to digital. not necesarily high-definition, though its a step. it wont rule out analog broadcasts though - every provider must have a digital version, but doesnt have to cut out the analog one.

im writing this on memory though, and i've not slept in quite a while, so there.

[Rob]

Originally Posted by n2blu

Interesting, I had not heard that. I have heard that there's plans to merge cell phones with mp3 players though.

The Uk Govt. made a £20 billion windfall doing something very similar. Selling off frequencies or whatever to the phone industry.

[Shadowself]

The auctions of spectrum in the U.S. have been around for quite a while. The earliest I heard of them was in the mid 90s.

They really became important when the FCC auctioned off a couple of satellite slots (and the associated spectrum) for two Direct Broadcast Satellites. One slot alone went for over USD$800 million.

After the auction was over the U.S. Congress suddenly realized that the FCC could be a revenue source, and the U.S. Congress has pushed the FCC to auction off spectrum whenever it was reasonable (and sometimes when it wasn't so reasonable). Thus the push to free up the analog spectrum and aucton off as much as possible.

Another issue being pushed with the freeing up of the analog spectrum is it can be used for emergency response and disaster relief organizations. Since the September 11 event it has become clear that these organizations do not have enough shared spectrum to effectively do their jobs.

All the media producers (TV stations, networks, etc.) and media tranporters (cable, satellite, etc.) are pushing to have the mandatory switch over date in the U.S. as far into the future as possible. This allows them to use both SD and HD concurrently. They don't have to risk anything. The wireless broadcasters get to use both the SD (analog) and HD (digital) frequencies concurrently until they are forced to abandon the analog frequencies.

The U.S. Congress several years ago had supported an FCC ruling that the switch over was mandatory as of 1 January 2007. (There was a loophole which allowed the continued use of the analog frequencies until a certain percentage of the U.S. households had HD (digital) capable sets or converters. I don't recall the percentage at the moment.) The U.S. Congress is currently considering a bill which will place the mandatory switch over as 1 January 2009 without the loophole.

There have been members within the U.S. Congress (Senator John McCain being the most vocal) who are pushing for the swith over to remain per the original FCC ruling or maybe even removing the loophole and making the switch simply mandatory on 1 January 2007 (with federal financial aid to help people buy converters if they cannot afford them). This group of members of congress claim the reason is based upon the emergency response issue, but there are probably other reasons too which are not openly discussed. However, this faction appears to be losing the battle. So the mandatory switch over of 1 January 2009 in the U.S. seems very likely.

Then the analog spectra will be auctioned off -- most likely for several billion dollars.