Okay so if BD does win....

[bone crusher]

Okay lets assume that Blu-ray wins the format war. How long before BD starts to catch standard dvd in terms of shelf space/sales? How long before regular dvds are phased out? Could regular dvd still be aroud and be as popular for another 5-10 years?

[jamclaur]

Originally Posted by bone crusher

Okay lets assume that Blu-ray wins the format war. How long before BD starts to catch standard dvd in terms of shelf space/sales? How long before regular dvds are phased out? Could regular dvd still be aroud and be as popular for another 5-10 years?

5 maybe, 10 less likely, 15 they will be done.

[WickyWoo]

DVD is going to be a force for at least 10 years. Blu is only going to become dominant through forced assimilation as they gradually stop making DVD players and move to Blu only.

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

DVD is going to be a force for at least 10 years. Blu is only going to become dominant through forced assimilation as they gradually stop making DVD players and move to Blu only.

I agree. DVD is still very strong and will continue to be strong for a very long time.

I don't think sales of "hi-def on disc" will ever come close to sales of DVD. Hi-def downloads and the like will, eventually, take a large chunk of the hi-def market. I also think that most people with DVD collections will be very hesitant toward upgrading to hi-def versions of films they already own on SD DVD.

DVD was the biggest home video money-maker for hollywood and I really don't think any one physical/disc format will come close to matching DVDs numbers (and profits). If Blu-ray disc sales get anywhere near 30% of DVD sales (during their peak years) I will be very surprised (in a good way).

Edit: The films that will sell the best on Blu-ray are those that WILL NOT be released on DVD. But, that is a long way off.

[so n so]

DVD here to stay. Why? $.

I've owned HD DVD for about 3 weeks and just bought a PS3 yesterday.

Blu is winning now but from all the reading I am doing, HD DVD has A LOT of momemtum!!!

I'm going to mainly buy Blu for now. Problem with Blu is price! I have the money and you may have the money but most people I know don't. Big difference between $200 & $400! HD DVD might move a lot of units, but we'll see. if warner goes HD DVD exclusive, Blu won't win.

I'm being really objective, for now I am going to buy Blu but will hold onto my HD DVD because I don't think the war is over.

[SlapnutsGT]

What ever format wins, the HD format will catch on sooner, every year the price for HD equipment drops nearly 40% and this christmas will be no different. Also, all analog signals are getting shut off in the US in april '08 so when people go to buy new TVs im willing to bet alot will drop a few extra to pick up at least a 720p set, which even now some aren't that much more then some decent sized CRTs on the market. DVD will still be sold for a while yes, but it will lose out to the next format. You can still buy some things on VHS believe it or not. So imma so 4-5 yrs after clear winner is picked.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by Slapper

Hi-def downloads and the like will, eventually, take a large chunk of the hi-def market.

You've been duped by Microsoft. The bandwidth and storage space to even contemplate hi-def downloads is a decade away minimum. Even with 160 Gig hard drives as a standard, that's only enough to download 3 movies with uncompressed sound.

I also think that most people with DVD collections will be very hesitant toward upgrading to hi-def versions of films they already own on SD DVD.

People said the same thing about VHS. Just like DVD caught on because it's very clearly better than VHS, the same thing will happen to Blu-Ray, *if* HDTVs finally take off. Which brings us to the bigger problem in this case...HDTVs aren't as cheap as they need to be to be in all homes everywhere.

[jamclaur]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

You've been duped by Microsoft. The bandwidth and storage space to even contemplate hi-def downloads is a decade away minimum. Even with 160 Gig hard drives as a standard, that's only enough to download 3 movies with uncompressed sound.


People said the same thing about VHS. Just like DVD caught on because it's very clearly better than VHS, the same thing will happen to Blu-Ray, *if* HDTVs finally take off. Which brings us to the bigger problem in this case...HDTVs aren't as cheap as they need to be to be in all homes everywhere.

This guy knows his ish.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by so n so

Big difference between $200 & $400!

Sigh. If you can afford the TV and sound equipment to actually make High-Definition discs worth it, then there is no difference between 200$ and 400$.

This is not low end tech, designed for the masses. Not yet.

If Warner goes HD, Blu-Ray will still win. Studio support is not the key to a format war. The key to a format war is the number of people creating the players and the popularity of such. The PS3 alone will outsell all HD-DVD players combined until HD-DVD wins the war, which they can not do unless they find a way to outsell the PS3.

I'm so glad you decided to post the standard HD-DVD spiel though as your first post.

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

You've been duped by Microsoft. The bandwidth and storage space to even contemplate hi-def downloads is a decade away minimum. Even with 160 Gig hard drives as a standard, that's only enough to download 3 movies with uncompressed sound.

I did NOT say HIGH QUALITY hi-def downloads. I'm talking broadcast quality hi-def downloads. Storage and bandwidth will not be as big of an issue for broadcast quality hi-def downloads within the next 2-4 years.

Originally Posted by Terjyn

People said the same thing about VHS. Just like DVD caught on because it's very clearly better than VHS, the same thing will happen to Blu-Ray, *if* HDTVs finally take off. Which brings us to the bigger problem in this case...HDTVs aren't as cheap as they need to be to be in all homes everywhere.

VHS tapes wear out. DVDs do not. Comparing the two is...not logical. "Why replace a "perfectly fine" DVD that looks great every time I play it?"

Agree HDTVs need to, and will, come down in price which will increase hi-def disc sales.

Blu-ray will never achieve the success of DVD. If I'm wrong I'll eat my hat.

Anyone else think Blu-ray will outperform DVD? Chime in.

[Smallville206]

I agree with you Slapper. I think even as the average consumers begans accepting and buying HD discs I still don't see them taking any great interest in upgrading their existing dvds which to the majority look and sound just find. It is a very small percentage of the population that strive to have the best when it comes to audio and sound.
Downloaded music and movies is huge and even with the obvious decrease in the level of quality people are happy. I know tons of people who won't even spring $10 for a dvd because they would rather just download it and copy to disc let alone pay even more for HD media.
Even the people that are impressed with my setup and the look of my Blu ray movies on the screen are in no rush to go out and dive into Blu ray themselves. I jumped aboard Blu ray a couple of months into the new year and my collection stands at 75. Among friends and acquaintances I am still the only one who has embraced HD, no one else seems to really care to be honest.

[joeorc]

Originally Posted by bone crusher

Okay lets assume that Blu-ray wins the format war. How long before BD starts to catch standard dvd in terms of shelf space/sales? How long before regular dvds are phased out? Could regular dvd still be aroud and be as popular for another 5-10 years?

yup..why..because look at CD and how long CD has lasted...DVD will still be popular...

[richteer]

Originally Posted by Slapper

Blu-ray will never achieve the success of DVD. If I'm wrong I'll eat my hat.

Anyone else think Blu-ray will outperform DVD? Chime in.

I do ... eventually.

[joeorc]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

You've been duped by Microsoft. The bandwidth and storage space to even contemplate hi-def downloads is a decade away minimum. Even with 160 Gig hard drives as a standard, that's only enough to download 3 movies with uncompressed sound.


People said the same thing about VHS. Just like DVD caught on because it's very clearly better than VHS, the same thing will happen to Blu-Ray, *if* HDTVs finally take off. Which brings us to the bigger problem in this case...HDTVs aren't as cheap as they need to be to be in all homes everywhere.

the same CE COMPANIES THAT MAKE Blu-Ray optical drive and the same companies that make HD DVD optical drives are reduceing the price on HDTV's
now they may not be the 1080p to be reduced to bottom priceing.
but the 720p HDTV's are...

[Manco]

Originally Posted by so n so

Blu is winning now but from all the reading I am doing, HD DVD has A LOT of momemtum!!!

Please provide hard data to backup this claim.

The Venturer HD-DVD player that even WalMart won't stock. A triple-layer disk that does not run on existing HD-DVD hardware. A crippled attempt at paying off a studio which has all the major Hollywood director's up in arms.

I don't see it that way at all. I see a sinking ship and the last ditch efforts to pull off a miracle.

[bootman]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

You've been duped by Microsoft. The bandwidth and storage space to even contemplate hi-def downloads is a decade away minimum. Even with 160 Gig hard drives as a standard, that's only enough to download 3 movies with uncompressed sound.

Docsis 3.0 will be wide spread by 2009 and the standard size for HD is 500G now. By 2009 it will be over 1T.

This isn't M$ B$.

Plus who needs to actually store the movies when cable companies want you to stream it.

[tron3]

Originally Posted by so n so

...

Blu is winning now but from all the reading I am doing, HD DVD has A LOT of momemtum!!!

I'm going to mainly buy Blu for now. Problem with Blu is price! I have the money and you may have the money but most people I know don't. Big difference between $200 & $400! HD DVD might move a lot of units, but we'll see. if warner goes HD DVD exclusive, Blu won't win.

...

Your arguement has been made many times. Fact 1. Warner announced they are staying with both sides for now. They are feeling out the market through Q4 '07. Also admitted to talking to both sides.

We are all praying and begging Warner to go blu exclusive. But none of that will make it happen. Only sales count. The HD-DVD market has to dry up. We all rather they stay neutral than go the route of Paramount.

While price has been an issue, PS3 seems to have been the savior of the format as blu-ray movies out sells roughly 2:1. The recent cuts in price has caused blu-ray players to edge over HD-DVD in sales - and climbing..

The triple layer 51GB HD-DVD undoes the price advantage they tout. As it turns out, many movies we already buy, like 300, are made on a dual-layer 50GB BD. So, HD-DVD has no advantage without going quad-layer. Again, it kills the cost savings and increases play back issues. It's a broken promise before it even gets off the ground. If BD counters with a triple layer or quad layer disc then it is "game over". For HD-DVD to catch up in capacity, their new nick name becomes H-THICK DVD.

[joeorc]

Originally Posted by richteer

I do ... eventually.

i also agree though it will take some time that is for sure..it will happen due to the fact just like CD, AND JUST LIKE DVD blu-ray is being used as a standard for many thing's like hand camcorder recording. it will have a boost once HDTV's priceing make it to the mainstream when a majority of the PEOPLE have them on a region by region basis.

THE US is switching to HD standard for TV by 2009. so its going to still take some time but that's what the CE companies are counting on. makeing sure a HD OPTICAL format does make the transition from DVD and replace it, and it will.

[Kristin Simard]

Originally Posted by Slapper

Blu-ray will never achieve the success of DVD. If I'm wrong I'll eat my hat.

How would you like your hat cooked? Baked, poached, steamed, fried, grilled, broiled? Or Raw?

I think once the format war is decided, prices on everything will drop cuz more people will be picking up the technology. How expensive were VHS tapes originally? $89. DVD players used to be $400.

Well, I'm optimistic.

[joeorc]

Originally Posted by bootman

Docsis 3.0 will be wide spread by 2009 and the standard size for HD is 500G now. By 2009 it will be over 1T.

This isn't M$ B$.

Plus who needs to actually store the movies when cable companies want you to stream it.

but that does nothing for the vast majority of people and family's liveing out in places where there is no high data transfer means for content delivery. hell right now there are places outside of major US city's with no broad band access.let alone FIBROS.


its still a way off for viable digital downloads for HD CONTENT TO BE THE NORM FOR THE Majority