Should the consumer win?

[mystiksuicide]

Here is my take on the whole situation. Warner and the rest of the studios know that there will be no mass adaptation of the next generation dvd player while 2 formats exist.

If Warner where to go hd dvd exclusive that would pretty much dived the studios 50/50. Advantage no one

If Warner where to stay neutral that would leave the status quo as it stands until at least Jan 2009 with blu increasing it's lead but not enough for mass adaptation. Advantage Blu-Ray ever so slightly but not enough

If Warner where to go blu that would give the BDA over 70% of the market and the remaining non blu studios will have to take a good hard look at the format war. Universal would either go neutral or blu in 2008. Many have speculated about Paramount contract having an "out clause" should the numbers fall below a certain percentage but as it stands Jan 2009. Advantage the consumer

[Beta-guy]

I think Paramount will live out thier contract but weinstein and Uni could move over in 2008 just a hunch tho

[Ispoke]

Good prognosis mystik. My only concern would be if Warner stay neutral, it gives time for the red side to re-group and therefore the outcome becomes even less predictable.

[samsung hd]

Dud Sucks ...

[KenThompson]

You mean Toshiba sucks.

[Tulsa]

We really don't know the specifics of the Paramount deal, were they paid total up front or is it incentive based and payed out over time? If they were paid up front and have a clause to exit the contract I'm sure it would also call for a prorated repayment of monies received. No one likes to give it back once they have it in their hands.

If they were paid up front, I think they stay the duration of their agreement, if it's incentive based and Warner were to go exclusive, they would be in a much better position to re-evaluate their marketing position.

[T-Wrecks]

but I feel the HD-DVD side is offering HUGE amounts of money for Warner to either stay neutral or go red.

So now Warner is looking to 4th Q sales numbers to see if taking the deal for short term big money is better than refusing the deal for long-term big money by going Blu.

Hopefully the consumer has at least SOME influence, but hope is often for fools.

[tru2blu707]

ok...so if warner joins blu along with weinstein and uni in 08....how much pull does transformer have in winning this war....

[MOONPHASE]

warner on blu side will pratically end the format war especially if they released The Matrix on Blu-Ray with better sound then the dud version plus great picture quality for an affordable price

[JohnGalt]

Everyone here seems to assume that Warner will either back HD DVD, Blu-ray, or both but what about "none of the above"? Don't forget that Warner is first and foremost a media company and that they might well conclude that online delivery is preferable to either of the next-gen optical formats and attempt to set up their own proprietary online delivery service for their catalog. I despise AOL but it is a very strong brand name that is currently faltering, an online movie delivery service might be as good a use as any for it going forward.

Despite the insinuations that have been put forward I doubt 4th quarter player or disc sales are going to be the primary driving factor for Warner. More likely they're weighing whether or not they really want to support a next-gen disc format at all or whether there is a more profitable way to distribute their wares.

[MOONPHASE]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt

Everyone here seems to assume that Warner will either back HD DVD, Blu-ray, or both but what about "none of the above"? Don't forget that Warner is first and foremost a media company and that they might well conclude that online delivery is preferable to either of the next-gen optical formats and attempt to set up their own proprietary online delivery service for their catalog. I despise AOL but it is a very strong brand name that is currently faltering, an online movie delivery service might be as good a use as any for it going forward.

Despite the insinuations that have been put forward I doubt 4th quarter player or disc sales are going to be the primary driving factor for Warner. More likely they're weighing whether or not they really want to support a next-gen disc format at all or whether there is a more profitable way to distribute their wares.

if that happened then blu will still have its victory unless hd-dud can survive on universal and paramount

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by MOONPHASE

warner on blu side will pratically end the format war especially if they released The Matrix on Blu-Ray with better sound then the dud version plus great picture quality for an affordable price

Announcing LOTR exclusively on Blu-ray would hurt even more IMO. I am assuming Warner and New Line move together because nothing else makes sense for their parent company (Time Warner).

As far as Japan goes I think Time Warner's only options are to move to Blu-ray and watch it take off over time, stay exclusive and watch Blu-ray take off over time (but at a slower pace), or poison the water in Japan for all studios (including their own) as far as HD on discs go, by going HD DVD exclusive. I really don't think Time Warner has nearly enough power to push HD DVD to a win in Japan with how far behind they are there and with HD DVD's disadvantages there (where they prefer recorders). In the rest of the world they might be able to help HD DVD to a win after a hard fought battle, but I just don't see it in Japan and wonder if Time Warner would really be willing to hurt themselves there like that. Even if it is only 10-15% of the market (I'm not sure how much it is), that is still too much to not consider.

--Darin

[MOONPHASE]

Originally Posted by darinp2

Announcing LOTR exclusively on Blu-ray would hurt even more IMO. I am assuming Warner and New Line move together because nothing else makes sense for their parent company (Time Warner).

As far as Japan goes I think Time Warner's only options are to move to Blu-ray and watch it take off over time, stay exclusive and watch Blu-ray take off over time (but at a slower pace), or poison the water in Japan for all studios (including their own) as far as HD on discs go, by going HD DVD exclusive. I really don't think Time Warner has nearly enough power to push HD DVD to a win in Japan with how far behind they are there and with HD DVD's disadvantages there (where they prefer recorders). In the rest of the world they might be able to help HD DVD to a win after a hard fought battle, but I just don't see it in Japan and wonder if Time Warner would really be willing to hurt themselves there like that. Even if it is only 10-15% of the market (I'm not sure how much it is), that is still too much to not consider.

--Darin

what about america?

[mystiksuicide]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt

Everyone here seems to assume that Warner will either back HD DVD, Blu-ray, or both but what about "none of the above"? Don't forget that Warner is first and foremost a media company and that they might well conclude that online delivery is preferable to either of the next-gen optical formats and attempt to set up their own proprietary online delivery service for their catalog. I despise AOL but it is a very strong brand name that is currently faltering, an online movie delivery service might be as good a use as any for it going forward.

Despite the insinuations that have been put forward I doubt 4th quarter player or disc sales are going to be the primary driving factor for Warner. More likely they're weighing whether or not they really want to support a next-gen disc format at all or whether there is a more profitable way to distribute their wares.

Sorry but we are talking 2008 not 2018. Warner knows that the hardware for that still isn't viable for the average joe so you can forget that right off the bat.

There are many consumer that still are not computer savy to begoin with that want a hard formated disk.

[cleric]

If by "win" you mean have one format I assume?

I think if warner plays it well and we would hope they would all they need to do in my opinion is pick the format they like for whatever reason (and they are probably going to be different than mine and yours) and just put all their top titles out on the decide format and try to throw a knockout punch. I think the chances would be pretty good.

[Alan Gordon]

Originally Posted by darinp2

I am assuming Warner and New Line move together because nothing else makes sense for their parent company (Time Warner).

I've said it before, I'll say it again. I think "New Line Cinema" will be a big part of the equation given their stance on "Region Coding". If WBHV/NLHV were to go HD DVD exclusive, what would New Line Home Video do?

Option #1: Would New Line Home Video hold all their Day & Date titles for months until their foreign partners are done with their theatrical window? Should HD DVD actually take off as a format, I can't see New Line holding back big titles for months.

Option #2: Would New Line release titles for rental (for months) until the foreign theatrical windows are closed... and then release it sell-through?

Option #3: Would Warner Bros. take control of foreign distribution for New Line Cinema films... thereby balancing out the importing issue. Would foreign theater owners hold it against WB by showing their films on less screens, or simply boycotting them all together?

Option #4: Would New Line Home Video simply release their titles Day & Date and to heck with their foreign partners? Surely not... as I would think that the money lost could certainly add up over time to the point where HD DVD's offer couldn't match the money lost over angering their distribution partners.

~Alan

[JohnGalt]

Originally Posted by mystiksuicide

Sorry but we are talking 2008 not 2018. Warner knows that the hardware for that still isn't viable for the average joe so you can forget that right off the bat.

There are many consumer that still are not computer savy to begoin with that want a hard formated disk.

The CE side of the technology could literally be ready in a matter of months if there were a serious push to develop it. Nothing more than an industrial PC coupled with an open software architecture that allows vendors to push their own virtual machines onto the box is necessary. That's essentially a software-only solution and while not quite trivial the only real challenges to its implementation would be from those seeking to carve out a piece of the IP pie.

The real technological problem lies in the lack of available bandwidth for delivery but with consumers abandoning higher quality audio formats in droves in favor of lower quality online delivery there will be a great deal of pressure to factor this "likely" consumer preference into any decisions. You'll never lose money by underestimating the lack of insight of marketing departments. Heck, I watched a multi-billion dollar corporate bankruptcy from the inside that flowed directly from the marketing department's decision to spend 95% of their time pursuing glamor markets while all but ignoring viable but less glamorous meat-and-potatoes markets that would have built a nice foundation for the business.

The killer point regarding online delivery is that each delivery would have a shelf-life since it's virtually a lock that duplication will not be allowed. Thus, once the consumer's HDD is full, they'll have to dump old content in order to secure new which guarantees multiple deliveries of some titles over time. Those sorts of recurring revenue streams are *very* attractive to businesses. But that's all moot if the consumer decides they want a next-gen optical format which remains to be seen at this point.

[Living Near Shamu]

Originally Posted by mystiksuicide

Here is my take on the whole situation. Warner and the rest of the studios know that there will be no mass adaptation of the next generation dvd player while 2 formats exist.

If Warner where to go hd dvd exclusive that would pretty much dived the studios 50/50. Advantage no one

If Warner where to stay neutral that would leave the status quo as it stands until at least Jan 2009 with blu increasing it's lead but not enough for mass adaptation. Advantage Blu-Ray ever so slightly but not enough

If Warner where to go blu that would give the BDA over 70% of the market and the remaining non blu studios will have to take a good hard look at the format war. Universal would either go neutral or blu in 2008. Many have speculated about Paramount contract having an "out clause" should the numbers fall below a certain percentage but as it stands Jan 2009. Advantage the consumer

This is the same article that was posted on the dud forum, lol

[JTK]

The consumer is increasingly choosing Blu, so yeah, ultimately they're going to win the sooner this stupid format war gets shut down.

Warner can be the heroes that save the day, so to speak, if the rumors come true and they go all Blu.

[jsteinhauer]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt

Those sorts of recurring revenue streams are *very* attractive to businesses. But that's all moot if the consumer decides they want a next-gen optical format which remains to be seen at this point.

I completely agree. There is a lot of denial about the fact that revenues and profits are the driving factor behind the format that "wins". Quality means little. Network television, fast food, US airline companies, insurance companies, etc. are all evidence.