Study: Ultra High-Definition TV In 5-10 Years (4K and 8K quality)

[HDTV1080P]

In 5-10 years we might have 4K and 8K displays available to purchase. Some 4K projectors are now available for $175,000. Of course a new optical movie format would be needed to take advantage of such a display.
Article link
http://www.tvpredictions.com/ultra110209.htm

[Grand Bob]

It took about 20 years for the current high definition standards to evolve from study to reality; I wouldn't hold my breath for a successor anytime soon.

[HDTV1080P]

Originally Posted by Grand Bob

It took about 20 years for the current high definition standards to evolve from study to reality; I wouldn't hold my breath for a successor anytime soon.

Some people thought HD was coming in the late 80's and then it ended showing up in the late 90's. Your right products can get delayed many years.

[Grand Bob]

Originally Posted by HDTV1080P

Some people thought HD was coming in the late 80's and then it ended showing up in the late 90's. Your right products can get delayed many years.

Yes, I remember while I was in Japan in the 1980's that the Japanese were developing and rudimentally implemented (?) an analog HDTV format called MUSE. There was some discussion that the U.S. would adopt this format, but the decision fortunately was delayed because of the rapid development of digital technology. Among the reasons that I think any future "ultra" HD standard will be slow in coming is that our current standards are the result of a difficult, debate-filled process. Plus, current HD looks very good, even on large screens, and has already exceeded the resolution desire of the mass public. Even if resolution was improved by a factor of a thousand, would there be enough of a substantial improvement in appearance, when BD already looks exceptional on current single-piece TV's that are sized up to 73 inches? I'm thinking that our Blu-ray collections are safe from being improved upon for a long time.

[Kryptonic]

Those resolutions are worthless on the size of televisions in home right now. Unless you literally have a real movie theater, there's no point. Heck, the human eye can't even detect the difference between 720p and 1080p from 10-12 feet. Much less 4k.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by Kryptonic

Heck, the human eye can't even detect the difference between 720p and 1080p from 10-12 feet. Much less 4k.

You could tell the difference on an 80+" screen, but yes you'd really need to be as close as 10~12' away from a 120" screen to see the difference between 2K and 4K.

A new optical disc format is extremely unlikely though, so I think we're good with Blu-ray for a long time to come.

[doctorsteve]

Originally Posted by Kryptonic

Heck, the human eye can't even detect the difference between 720p and 1080p from 10-12 feet. Much less 4k.

Actually, it can.

Your statement is too vague though. Depends on the vertical resolution, depends on the pixel size, depends on the visual ability of the user.

Using 720 feed vs. a 1080 feed on a TV capable of 720 vs. a TV capable of 1080... blah, blah, blah...

The angle subtended by individual elements of a 720 image are smaller than the angle subtended by elements of an image of a 1080 image. (an individual element, regardless of size, is 33% smaller in a 720 image - assuming the pixel size of the TV's are the same, of course) You'd definitely see a difference. For example

You know, I'm going to stop here because 4k ain't happening anytime soon, and I'm just going to get frustrated trying to explain this further, since there would surely be those that just say 'Unt-uh!'

Hate to sound defeatist, but I just don't feel like bashing my head against the wall today. So, for what little it's worth, MHO is yes, you could see the difference, but since it many never get penetration into the marketplace, 4k display discussion feels pretty moot to me right now.

[Blu-Malibu2009]

If people think Blu-ray is a "niche" market, wait till they get a load of this 4k format. 98% of consumers do NOT have a dedicated home theater with a 80-100 inch (or larger) screen. Most of us have large televisions and but are limited by the space in our homes. I have a 46 inch HDTV and I live in a 600 square foot apartment. Most people simply do not have the necessary space to be able to benefit from a 4k format.

I think what needs to be done is further improvement of video compression technology with the likes of AVC and VC-1. 1080p can have phenomenal results already and it will keep getting better if those compression technologies are improved to the point that the quality of a 40 Mbps bitrate in today's encodes becomes the same quality in a 30 Mbps bitrate encode 5 years down the road.

[mtbkr]

how much content do you think we will all be streaming in 5 years from now? people are worried that internet speeds can not keep up with the streaming tech. how long do you think it will take to stream a 4k-8k movie with a 20mbps connection?

[RiseDarthVader]

Well considering a lot of movies still have their DI done in 2K I don't see this becoming accepted by Hollywood with open arms yet.

[gcchifi]

I read in a Sound + Vision article that 4K would fit on a 65 inch screen and 16K on an 88 inch. I am assuming that scalers of those ilk would be available to consumers at the same time for those who have invested in blu-ray components and discs. More K's out of HT afficionados pockets.

[Kirsty_Mc]

What really held up the adoption of HDTV were:-

1. The Broadcasters and the regulators / politicians who fund them.
2. The Cathode Ray Tube.

I personally can see some Ultra HD format arriving in around the 10 year mark, complete with a new format (possibly holographic) to replace Blu-ray. After all it is now accepted that home video standards don't have to be set by broadcasters anymore (1080P/24 is not broadcast), so to a large extend home video is indipendant.

Also the Blu-Ray Disc patents by then will be expiring and the large corporations will be looking for something new to sell to us after Blu-ray 3D etc. The movie studios will be eager to sell us the tripple / quadruple dip titles that we already have on Blu-Ray.

So.. start saving your pennies early adopters for the 8K television of your dreams and the Holo-Disc / Blu-Ray combi player.




... and the 16 Channel amplifier to play the new audio formats

[42041]

The reality is that 90% of viewers don't even need 1080p, because they sit too far back from too small a display and find it uncomfortable sitting closer. I'd much rather have lossless video be the next home video frontier.

[[1080-p]]

Originally Posted by 42041

The reality is that 90% of viewers don't even need 1080p, because they sit too far back from too small a display and find it uncomfortable sitting closer. I'd much rather have lossless video be the next home video frontier.

yeah sit to close a person sees pixellation
thats why i sit max distance from the screen
http://www.cnet.com/hdtv-viewing-distance/

[[1080-p]]

what about this video http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/24...ets-ship-date/

[john_1958]

http://www.techwatch.co.uk/2009/11/10/ultra-hdtv-getting-closer/
http://www.hd-report.com/2009/11/03/ultra-hdtv-not-around-the-corner-but-certainly-on-the-way/

wonder if california will let people buy it?

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by [1080-p]

what about this video http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/10/24...ets-ship-date/

It's 1080p.

[john_1958]

ultra-hd www.gizmag.com epson-2160p-lcd-projector-panel 13333

epson ultra-hd 2160p projector should look great wonder just when it come to market 5-10 years from now

[HD Man]

From an article in today's cable television trade publication, Multichannel News

Now that high-definition sets are in a majority of American homes, some analysts and companies are already looking ahead to the next generation of high-resolution video -- ultra HD.

Samsung Ultra HD set
The so-called ultra HD formats are expected to provide four to 16 times the resolution of existing high-def displays. A recent study by In-Stat, sister company to Multichannel News, predicts that the mass adoption of these sets will be a lengthy process stretching into the 2020s, but that about 40% of North American homes will have ultra HD sets by 2025. By then, about 20 million ultra HD sets will be shipped in North America.
In-Stat is also predicting that the penetration of ultra HD sets in Europe will approach 5% by 2021 and increase to about 28.2% by 2025 and that the Japanese market will be an early adopter of the technology in Asia.
Michelle Abraham, principal analyst at In-Stat and the author of the new study, The Market Opportunity for Ultra-High Definition Video, expects it will take five to 10 years before the displays reach even 5% of all homes and that the broadcasters won't begin offering some ultra-HD content until the 2017 to 2022 period.
"If you remember that [the Japanese public broadcaster] NHK began testing ultra-high definition about 10 years ago, it could be 25 years before we see ultra-HD widely available," Abraham said.
Nonetheless, companies are already thinking about the next generation of high-definition video and that interest prompted In-Stat to take a close look at the technology, Abraham said. A number of consumer-electronics manufacturers are already exploring the higher formats, and theatrical film makers are already producing 4K content for digital cinemas.
Ultra-high definition refers to the 4K resolution of 3840 by 2160 pixels, which offers four times the resolution of the current 1080p high-def displays, and 8K resolution, which has 7680 by 4320 pixels, or about 16 times the resolution of today's HD sets.
While the adoption process is likely to be lengthy and require most of the existing television production and distribution infrastructure to be almost entirely rebuilt, several factors are likely to push consumer adoption in the coming decades, the report said.
For starters, digital cinemas are already exposing consumers to higher resolution 4K content and creating an infrastructure for 4K and 8K content, according to Abraham.
"The studios are already taking films and scanning films at 4K resolution and there are cameras allowing them to produce using digital techniques in 4K resolution," she explained. Early ultra HD sets will likely to be marketed to those who want to replicate the digital cinema experience in the home.
At the same time, consumer electronics manufacturers continue to look for new features that allow them to maintain better margins on their sets.

[Grand Bob]

Originally Posted by HD Man

From an article in today's cable television trade publication, Multichannel News

Now that high-definition sets are in a majority of American homes, some analysts and companies are already looking ahead to the next generation of high-resolution video -- ultra HD.

I think the authors of this article are being overly optimistic. It took a long time for the current HD standard to be implemented, and it is beyond the desire of much of the public. A similar situation existed when high definition audio came of age in the 80's. It was beyond the needs of most people, and audio quality has largely stagnated or even reversed since then (observe the waning interest in high-def audio publications since the late 80's), with most people satisfied with MP3 quality. And so it is with video; videophiles have "won" with the implementation of HDTV and Blu-ray. There is probably not enough of a critical mass of people (or money or debate time) to push an even higher "ultra HD" standard onto the scene in the foreseeable future. I think most of the members of this forum (including myself) would like to see it happen, but I'm not holding my breath.