Predictions - Blu-ray wins war late January 2010 - Blu-ray Forum

sphdle1 · 10-18-2007, 11:12 PM

Anyone have a prediction on this war?

My prediction is based on the timing of Paramount getting out of their pay off deal, and starting to release BDs like mad, in a year and a half's time. By then I think the ratio will be over 3:1 in favor of Blu, at least in North America, but close to 10:1 in Europe and other moreso in Japan.
After the Christmas season of 2009, the ratio will go past 4:1, Universal will start making both, and by late January, all other studios will go exclusively BD, as the market share of high definition will have increased 10 fold from what it is now, so there will be more money at stake for studios in terms of Profit & Loss.

Am I way off, or just slightly? What's your prediction on the ending of the war?

SNAP · 10-18-2007, 11:16 PM

I think it's done by mid 2009 based on what the sales numbers are now. If Toshiba is losing now they'll stop throwing $$$ at it and dump it fast.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sphdle1

Anyone have a prediction on this war?

My prediction is based on the timing of Paramount getting out of their pay off deal, and starting to release BDs like mad, in a year and a half's time. By then I think the ratio will be over 3:1 in favor of Blu, at least in North America, but close to 10:1 in Europe and other moreso in Japan.
After the Christmas season of 2009, the ratio will go past 4:1, Universal will start making both, and by late January, all other studios will go exclusively BD, as the market share of high definition will have increased 10 fold from what it is now, so there will be more money at stake for studios in terms of Profit & Loss.

Am I way off, or just slightly? What's your prediction on the ending of the war?

HK-48 · 10-18-2007, 11:18 PM

I think it will be a bit eariler than that because Paramount's deal only lasts the next two Holiday Seasons or 18 months (Since Day One in August) so Paramount will go neutral again or Blu-Ray exclusive in Early 2009. And I bet by then Warner will have gone Blu-Ray exclusive. Harry Potter will help us hopefully.

nails · 10-19-2007, 12:09 AM

I don't know about you, but I'm going to make sure all my local friends and co-workers know EXACTLY how to import a blu-ray disk from Japan. There will be no wait for HD-DVD only movies

ESUNintel · 10-19-2007, 12:17 AM

I have a feeling that Blu-ray will win the format war.
...so I think it WILL win, just not sure when.

My guess will be that after this holiday season, Blu will gain more support and HD-DVD will start going downhill (not like they haven't been). I would assume that by late 2008 it will be the format of choice, and I wouldn't be surprised if by then (or when ever Vista SP2 comes out), it will even be supported by Microsoft in Windows Media Center.

...no real facts on that, just what I think

monkyman · 10-19-2007, 12:21 AM

I think it is going to be up to retailers. Blockbuster has made their decision, as has Mijer, Target is swaying to Blu. If BB, CC or even Walmart go BD exclusive it won't leave consumers much choice.

sphdle1 · 10-19-2007, 12:23 AM

Good to see that the porn industry is not going to decide it this time, and that us the consumer gets to decide. Power to the people!

nails · 10-19-2007, 12:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by monkyman

I think it is going to be up to retailers. Blockbuster has made their decision, as has Mijer, Target is swaying to Blu. If BB, CC or even Walmart go BD exclusive it won't leave consumers much choice.

Most best buy stores already have blu-ray faced with 6 sections, and HD-DVD wrapped around the back.. I'm sure this was paid for by sony, but these are still important key steps in winning a war. I think HD-DVD is going to be around a bit longer mostly because of transformers. If transformers released on both then this would go faster. Also all of the HD-DVD fanboys who are foaming at the mouth and posting youtubes on how "(swear word)(swear word)(swear word) awsome" it is (because swear words are what makes a format great). They will waver poor helpless consumers into choosing the wrong format.

SNAP · 10-19-2007, 12:27 AM

What's the allure w/Transformers Nails??.....Was it that good a movie??

Quote:

Originally Posted by nails

Most best buy stores already have blu-ray faced with 6 sections, and HD-DVD wrapped around the back.. I'm sure this was paid for by sony, but these are still important key steps in winning a war. I think HD-DVD is going to be around a bit longer mostly because of transformers. If transformers released on both then this would go faster. Also all of the HD-DVD fanboys who are foaming at the mouth and posting youtubes on how "(swear word)(swear word)(swear word) awsome" it is (because swear words are what makes a format great). They will waver poor helpless consumers into choosing the wrong format.

nails · 10-19-2007, 12:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SNAP

What's the allure w/Transformers Nails??.....Was it that good a movie??

Box office wise it didn't beat any of the Spiderman movies, however cult and general appeal wise it is a fun movie. I can live with it on DVD till the blu-ray releases overseas in December.

Proteus · 10-19-2007, 12:29 AM

I think it will all be over much sooner than many people think.

In fact, I think we'll see things picking up pace a lot after this holiday season. This will undoubtedly be the HighDef Holiday From Hell. Things should wrap up quickly in the format war after it as many retailers (and at least one studio) should begin making decisions on a preferred format.

Retail, to be frank, just can not handle the shelf space needed for two formats given the amount of releases coming out now. Decisions will be made and the war will end very soon.

monkyman · 10-19-2007, 12:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Proteus

Retail, to be frank, just can not handle the shelf space needed for two formats given the amount of releases coming out now. Decisions will be made and the war will end very soon.

This is why I believe BD is going to be releaseing many, many movies in the next couple of months. If they control 70% or more of shelf space and sell better, it will be a no-brainer which format to drop.

ADPNIGHTMARE · 10-19-2007, 12:45 AM

hopefully it wont be that long!

But after xmas I see hd-dvd free falling. My guess this time next year it will be all but done and companies like paramount are problem just going to stop making hd-dvd discs because retailers won't carry them anymore and just release all their films on blu when their contract is over.

Hassoon · 10-19-2007, 02:50 AM

I would really, REALLY hope this whole thing is over by next January at the latest.

/Begin best case scenario

Wishful thinking, but if Warner were to base its decisions on Q4 sales, and the Blu-side gets the lion's share of sales, then I really think that that should be reason enough for them to pull the plug on HD-DVD.

If that happens, Paramount and Universal will undoubtedly be forced to re-consider their positions, and this will all be a thing of the past.

/End best case scenario

Then everyone can rest, have peace of mind, and bask in the glory of all things Blu

.

dobyblue · 10-19-2007, 02:51 AM

CES 2009 at the latest.

HK-48 · 10-19-2007, 02:52 AM

Yeah, if Harry Potter is another 300 than Warner is really going to have to side with Blu-Ray. Especially if Sony is waving money in their face. That move would probably put a TON of pressure on Universal to go neutral. Paramount would be screwed if Warner went Blu-Ray exclusive and Universal went neutral.

New2Blu · 10-19-2007, 03:03 AM

Harry Potter will be bigger than 300 the audience is so much bigger. Hopefully the enormus sales of HP will leave Warner no choice but to be Blu Exclusive.

richard lichtenfelt · 10-19-2007, 03:04 AM

I don't believe that the Paramount situation is as much of a factor as most people are making it out to be. They have been making hd dvds all along. It wasn't like an exclusive studio changed sides. Essentially they get two movies that we don't that are expected to sell well. One of those is Shrek, who would pick Shrek over Disney?
Paramounts best titles, the Spielberg directed movies, aren't part of the exclusivity deal.
Did anyone see the last episode of Southpark aired last night. They make fun of our imaginations being stolen by Michael Bay and M. Night Shyamalan.
Blu-ray has almost twice as many new titles coming during the holiday season. The last time I counted which was about a week ago, blu-ray had 120 to hd dvds 65 titles to be released by years end.

sphdle1 · 10-19-2007, 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HK-48

Yeah, if Harry Potter is another 300 than Warner is really going to have to side with Blu-Ray. Especially if Sony is waving money in their face. That move would probably put a TON of pressure on Universal to go neutral. Paramount would be screwed if Warner went Blu-Ray exclusive and Universal went neutral.

I don't think Sony will wave money at anyone, because of the whole EU investigation. We should all hope that doesn't go the wrong way and have the EU force studios to be neutral. That would just prolong the war, though BD will still win.

I am changing my prediction based on what I'm reading on this thread to Late January, 2009. I am more optomistic now, and I'm going to make my best guess that the EU will not do anything drastic, other than maybe forcing Paramount to not take the bribe from Toshiba. That would be the final blow for HD DVD (I'd have to change my prediction to 2008 if that happened...)

BadAss · 10-19-2007, 11:54 AM

I think it's a question of how long HD-DVD can survive. If WB goes Blu-ray exclusive the whole war is over. With WB, FOX, Sony, Disney, BV, LG blu-ray has the support to turn sales 80:20 every week. There will be no reason for retailers to to support two formats for 20% and with Universal and Paramount losing 80% of the market they'll be forced to climb down.

So I'll give it till CES 2008 at the earliest and March 2008 at the latest.

At the moment WB don't have any titles announced past Jan 8th so that could be their deadline, keep an eye it.

10-18-2007, 11:12 PM	#1
sphdle1 Active Member Member since:Oct 2007 Location:Nova Scotia, Canada	Predictions - Blu-ray wins war late January 2010 Anyone have a prediction on this war? My prediction is based on the timing of Paramount getting out of their pay off deal, and starting to release BDs like mad, in a year and a half's time. By then I think the ratio will be over 3:1 in favor of Blu, at least in North America, but close to 10:1 in Europe and other moreso in Japan. After the Christmas season of 2009, the ratio will go past 4:1, Universal will start making both, and by late January, all other studios will go exclusively BD, as the market share of high definition will have increased 10 fold from what it is now, so there will be more money at stake for studios in terms of Profit & Loss. Am I way off, or just slightly? What's your prediction on the ending of the war?

10-19-2007, 12:17 AM	#5
ESUNintel Senior Member Member since:Aug 2007 Location:Colorado	By 2009 it will be the major format I have a feeling that Blu-ray will win the format war. ...so I think it WILL win, just not sure when. My guess will be that after this holiday season, Blu will gain more support and HD-DVD will start going downhill (not like they haven't been). I would assume that by late 2008 it will be the format of choice, and I wouldn't be surprised if by then (or when ever Vista SP2 comes out), it will even be supported by Microsoft in Windows Media Center. ...no real facts on that, just what I think

10-19-2007, 03:04 AM	#18
richard lichtenfelt Power Member Member since:Jul 2007 Location:I'm not drunk, I'm just tired cause I been up all night drinking. Blu-ray reviews:3	I don't believe that the Paramount situation is as much of a factor as most people are making it out to be. They have been making hd dvds all along. It wasn't like an exclusive studio changed sides. Essentially they get two movies that we don't that are expected to sell well. One of those is Shrek, who would pick Shrek over Disney? Paramounts best titles, the Spielberg directed movies, aren't part of the exclusivity deal. Did anyone see the last episode of Southpark aired last night. They make fun of our imaginations being stolen by Michael Bay and M. Night Shyamalan. Blu-ray has almost twice as many new titles coming during the holiday season. The last time I counted which was about a week ago, blu-ray had 120 to hd dvds 65 titles to be released by years end. Last edited by richard lichtenfelt; 10-19-2007 at 11:07 PM.

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10-18-2007, 11:18 PM	#3
HK-48 Active Member Member since:Aug 2007	I think it will be a bit eariler than that because Paramount's deal only lasts the next two Holiday Seasons or 18 months (Since Day One in August) so Paramount will go neutral again or Blu-Ray exclusive in Early 2009. And I bet by then Warner will have gone Blu-Ray exclusive. Harry Potter will help us hopefully.

10-19-2007, 12:09 AM	#4
nails Active Member Member since:Aug 2007	I don't know about you, but I'm going to make sure all my local friends and co-workers know EXACTLY how to import a blu-ray disk from Japan. There will be no wait for HD-DVD only movies

10-19-2007, 12:21 AM	#6
monkyman Special Member Member since:Jun 2007	I think it is going to be up to retailers. Blockbuster has made their decision, as has Mijer, Target is swaying to Blu. If BB, CC or even Walmart go BD exclusive it won't leave consumers much choice.

10-19-2007, 12:23 AM	#7
sphdle1 Active Member Member since:Oct 2007 Location:Nova Scotia, Canada	Good to see that the porn industry is not going to decide it this time, and that us the consumer gets to decide. Power to the people!

10-19-2007, 12:29 AM	#11
Proteus Power Member Member since:Apr 2007 Location:SoCal PSN:CaptBurn	I think it will all be over much sooner than many people think. In fact, I think we'll see things picking up pace a lot after this holiday season. This will undoubtedly be the HighDef Holiday From Hell. Things should wrap up quickly in the format war after it as many retailers (and at least one studio) should begin making decisions on a preferred format. Retail, to be frank, just can not handle the shelf space needed for two formats given the amount of releases coming out now. Decisions will be made and the war will end very soon.

10-19-2007, 12:45 AM	#13
ADPNIGHTMARE Active Member Member since:Jul 2007 Location:FLA	hopefully it wont be that long! But after xmas I see hd-dvd free falling. My guess this time next year it will be all but done and companies like paramount are problem just going to stop making hd-dvd discs because retailers won't carry them anymore and just release all their films on blu when their contract is over.

10-19-2007, 02:50 AM	#14
Hassoon Active Member Member since:Sep 2007	I would really, REALLY hope this whole thing is over by next January at the latest. /Begin best case scenario Wishful thinking, but if Warner were to base its decisions on Q4 sales, and the Blu-side gets the lion's share of sales, then I really think that that should be reason enough for them to pull the plug on HD-DVD. If that happens, Paramount and Universal will undoubtedly be forced to re-consider their positions, and this will all be a thing of the past. /End best case scenario Then everyone can rest, have peace of mind, and bask in the glory of all things Blu .

10-19-2007, 02:51 AM	#15
dobyblue Super Moderator Top contributor Member since:Jul 2006 Location:Ontario, Canada Home Theater Gallery:71 4K collection:55 Blu-ray collection:655 Blu-ray reviews: 15	CES 2009 at the latest.

10-19-2007, 02:52 AM	#16
HK-48 Active Member Member since:Aug 2007	Yeah, if Harry Potter is another 300 than Warner is really going to have to side with Blu-Ray. Especially if Sony is waving money in their face. That move would probably put a TON of pressure on Universal to go neutral. Paramount would be screwed if Warner went Blu-Ray exclusive and Universal went neutral.

10-19-2007, 03:03 AM	#17
New2Blu Junior Member Member since:Aug 2007	Harry Potter will be bigger than 300 the audience is so much bigger. Hopefully the enormus sales of HP will leave Warner no choice but to be Blu Exclusive.

10-19-2007, 11:54 AM	#20
BadAss Senior Member Member since:Feb 2007 Location:England 4K collection:63 Blu-ray collection:63	I think it's a question of how long HD-DVD can survive. If WB goes Blu-ray exclusive the whole war is over. With WB, FOX, Sony, Disney, BV, LG blu-ray has the support to turn sales 80:20 every week. There will be no reason for retailers to to support two formats for 20% and with Universal and Paramount losing 80% of the market they'll be forced to climb down. So I'll give it till CES 2008 at the earliest and March 2008 at the latest. At the moment WB don't have any titles announced past Jan 8th so that could be their deadline, keep an eye it.

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