Is the end in sight?

[mystiksuicide]

I asked this last night, but I thought it deserved a thread.

I usually bash HD DVD's in every post by calling them DUD's. But now I am asking this in all seriousness. Are we witnessing the slow death of HD DVD?

I ask because of three reasons.

1) The number of movies sold (what really matters in all this) continues to lean HEAVILY in blu's favor week after week.

2) Toshiba holds a warehouse clearance of old inferior machines AKA "Fire Sale" and sell 90,000 units. PS3 comes out and from what I have read sells 40,000 the first day.

3) It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that HD DVD continues to lose money and from what trends seem there is no light at the end of the tunnel.

I know I am not some marketing genius but from a layman's point of view it seems like the end has already started.

[T-Town Oil]

ive got that song by the doors "the end" playing right now....pretty freakin wild man...

[sj001]

The end has been in sight for a long time now, the Paramount deal just prolonged their death. But obviously Paramount and the firesale, and anything else they have thrown BD's way have not helped. Slowly and steadily they will decline...

[Go Blu]

One thing is for sure...All 170 companies that make up the BDA are not going to cave in anytime soon. There is way too much invested there and at the moment everything is in Blu's favor.

I think the end is near AGAIN.....but

On the other hand Toshiba has WAY too much invested to just pack it in anytime soon. I wouldn't put it past the DUD camp to have many more dirty tricks up its sleeve to prolong it's survival as long as it can.

I also think that this bitter rivalry will create a "If I can't win then no one will attitude." If that's the case then who knows what they will try and do. We already know they will bribe, spin propaganda and outright lie.

[Magic]

I was trying to school a coworker on the benefits of Blu the other day and when I started to explain the differences between Blu and HD-DVD she said, "I thought HD-DVD was not as good and they were going to stop making it." And she really didn't have much knowledge on Hi-Def media at that time.

I think this little story helps to illustrate your point Mystik....to the "everyman" it seems obvious that Blu is the better format and has taken an insurmountable lead.

[glenn22]

While I wouldn't call it over just yet, I'd say that by the new year we'll probably be able to call it over.

[JTK]

I think we have to wait until CES 2008 before we can really seriously talk about any "beginnings of the end" and seeing it.

[GregBlu5]

And, we're seeing the ol' reliable indicator--Shelf Space--in retail outlets going Blu's way in more and more individual stores and retail franchises. Stores give more space to stuff that *sells* the most.

-Greg

[Spankey]

I used to think that HD-DVD had an edge with name recognition. As the last year and last quarter have unfolded, I think having the DVD moniker is a disadvantage. DVD just sounds like old technology now. Blu-ray is new, the thing to have, etc. The Pixar commercials have been awesome. They really make the format seem new and exciting with endless possibilities.

HD-DVD is just a giant step backward in technology. Why any serious HT enthusiast champions the format is beyond me still.

[HDJK]

I think this could be about right.

[Sonny]

The sooner its over the better, Red is in the hole big time lol & there just getting deeper & deeper every day , & then one day they will be gone !

[mystiksuicide]

Originally Posted by Go Blu

One thing is for sure...All 170 companies that make up the BDA are not going to cave in anytime soon. There is way too much invested there and at the moment everything is in Blu's favor.

I think the end is near AGAIN.....but

On the other hand Toshiba has WAY too much invested to just pack it in anytime soon. I wouldn't put it past the DUD camp to have many more dirty tricks up its sleeve to prolong it's survival as long as it can.

I also think that this bitter rivalry will create a "If I can't win then no one will attitude." If that's the case then who knows what they will try and do. We already know they will bribe, spin propaganda and outright lie.

I do agree that they won't go down quietly but there comes a time when you have to look at your shareholders and explain this insanity.

Speaking of shareholders Apple stocks are going through the roof. At last nights closing bell apple was up 16.20 for the day

[Manco]

Taking a very honest look at the state of affairs... I don't see Universal or Warner Bros changing positions until late 2008 or early 2009.

I think they are entrenched and the status quo will remain for the next 12 months. After another year of BD consistently outperforming HD in raw software sales, they will be forced to switch by next year end to resolve the ailing Home Enterainment industry on DVD. By then, mandates will come down from Corp to reinvigorate DVD sales using the extra capacity on BD to supply extras and upsells.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by T-Town Oil

ive got that song by the doors "the end" playing right now....pretty freakin wild man...

Is it from the new DVD-Audio set?

*drools*

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by Manco

Taking a very honest look at the state of affairs... I don't see Universal or Warner Bros changing positions until late 2008 or early 2009.

I think Warner would like to see this end sooner rather than later. I would be surprised if they're still neutral by the end of July.

Universal for sure may take longer, but there's always the Spielberg factor.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by JTK

I think we have to wait until CES 2008 before we can really seriously talk about any "beginnings of the end" and seeing it.

Agreed - I think we're all going to be pretty impressed with Blu's showing at CES 2008.

[Imakida]

Originally Posted by mystiksuicide

But now I am asking this in all seriousness. Are we witnessing the slow death of HD DVD?

I agree with you and I think we are really witnessing the slow death of HD DVD. But like someone else said, the end is not soon and not only Toshiba wil try to extend the war, but also the people who made the wrong choice (HD DVD). The more we are gaining momentum, the more HD DVD side will try to counter-attack. In my point of view, the best way to win is to be honest with the consumer and gaining terrain slowly.

The fact is, there is not much difference between blu-ray and HD DVD. It's not the best format that will win, but the one with the best strategies. I really think the blu-ray has the best strategy and that's why I'm in (and because I have a PS3 , which is part of the strategy!).

[maximiza]

I don't know, if Microfat throws in anouther Billion dollars they could extend the war for anouther year or 2. Depends how Hd-DVD wants to die.

[oXweebleXo]

im sure they know its over and they just want to get rid of what they have left so that they are stuck with useless equipment. and what better way than taking a few dollar loss than not taking a complete loss. thus these sales. they know when they do loose they arent sitting on the units. consumers are.

[OokieSpookie]

It is blu's game to lose right now.
Blu has a few things that it has to focus on to put the nail in the coffin.

1) It needs to work on changing the blu = ps3 perception, the new commercials are doing that and the 399-379 and lower players will do that also. ( I know Sony may try to resist a little but it needs to be done for the format.

2) Blu needs to stop messing around with 1.1s and 1.0s and which player can play which version. Final version 1.1 should fix that though I would not want to be one of the early stand alone adopters.

3) Keep Stringer from talking again for a while. Perception is everything and even though we and others know what he meant the fact that the press ran with it and put a negative slant on it does matter to companies.
They need to have a strong presence at the high def media show in December and also at CES they need to close the door.