Ten Reasons Why DISC won't die

[bhuyanp]

Ten Reasons why HD downloads won't be adopted by the masses

1. Consumers aren't ready for it. Look at it this way: next year is the conversion to digital television, and the industry and the government are printing out 35 million coupons for the people who still use rabbit ears or a rooftop antenna to get their TV signals. How many consumers, other than the leading edge, are going to have the type of hardware and software that will allow them to rely solely on streaming video?

2. Sites aren't ready for it. Even now, when there's big events like Cyber Monday, Web sites can't handle it, and that's just for shopping. How much of a load is streaming video going to be? A good test will be to see what happens with the Summer Olympics this year. NBC and Microsoft announced plans to stream 3000 hours of coverage for every sport. www.nbcolympics.com has streaming video with good performance now, but let's see what happens during the gymnastics finals.

3. Infrastructure isn't ready for it. How many consumers have enough bandwidth to support it? How many consumers even have access to that much bandwidth? According to the National Association of State CIOs, you need 12 Mbps to even start getting IPTV, and what you really need is 24 Mbps to 100 Mbps. I have the fastest consumer Internet service possible in my area, and it clocks at 214 Kb. I downloaded the Microsoft Silverlight software that will be used for the Olympics, and tried to check out the CES coverage on Microsoft's site, and it paused every few seconds.

4. Providers aren't ready for it. Comcast has already taken heat for what's called bandwidth throttling, or cutting consumers off when they download "too much" data (and the "too much" isn't defined), but surely many other providers are doing it as well. How quickly are they going to be able to handle it when everyone is doing it?

5. With all the talk of on-demand video, do we really believe that we will be able to see any video at any time? I happen to be fond of the Icelandic film director Hrafn Gunnlaugsson; am I going to be able to find his more recent movies?

6. How's the pricing going to work? Wal-Mart (which, incidentally, discontinued its movie download service) charged $12.88 to $19.88 for a movie and $1.96 for a TV episode. If my daughter wants to watch Rudolph, the Red-Nosed Reindeer five times in a row (in July - and am I going to be able to download it in July?), how much is that going to cost me? Am I really going to pay $10 for every night when I flop in front of the tube after dinner and manage to stay up for Jay Leno?

7. There are some movies, that, ahem, we'd just as soon people not know that we like to watch and that we might like to have on disc so we can hide them. Yes, it's true that such content is available and popular on the Internet now but if all the video coverage is coming from the same provider, how does one maintain one's discretion?

8. Owning a disc is just simpler. There's plenty of Disney channels, but every parent I know has a rack full of Disney videos anyway, which they pass around among themselves, send with their kids to overnights, etc.

9. Let's say that there's a way for consumers to keep the content they get through streaming media. How are they going to manage it? Everyone I know with a TiVo has it full of stuff they never get around to watching and then it fills up and they can't record any more. What happens if a power failure or disk problem zaps the library?

10. Megatrends author John Naisbitt postulated the concept of "high tech, high touch," which stated that with increasing technology, people feel the need to increase the human response. They want something tangible they can hold and touch. People still buy vinyl records, for heaven's sake. Heck, they still buy books.

http://www.betanews.com/article/Anal...die/1199853352

[Grisle]

I wonder to myself why people believe that HD downloads will be poised to take over as the format of choice. Sure it's convenient with On Demand or on Tivo, but like you've said there are too many things making it impossible to safely keep a large library and not be concerned about space or hard drive failure. I loved my Ipod because it allowed me to take my music anywhere, but I still loved to collect cds and I always will.

[bhampton]

1) Because I'll keep buying them
2) Because they are fun
3) Shiny is neat.
4) Once you experience loss of data from a Hard Drive,... Hard Drives don't seem like the best place to have unbacked up data.
5) More and more people every day decide that Microsoft already has enough of their money.

[sardaukar1977]

I think that someday, in the far future, say, 20 years or so, it will be practical to have digital downloads, but not at the current moment.

I still believe that despite the fact that the Digital downloads will probably be as good as physical media movies, someday, there will still be a demand for the physical media, I mean having the movie on a hard drive, just isn't the same as actually having the disc, to put in a collection.

I mean books are still around, even though they could all be saved to computers. People still like to pick up book from time to time.

CD's tapes and LP's are still around, hell even 8 tracks are still in demand by some people. Itunes didn't eliminate that.

[AikonEnt]

It will only ever work when all downloads are free. When I buy a disc it still has value (should I wish to I could sell it). If I buy a download it immediately becomes worthless, why would I want to pay for something that has no value as soon as I get it? I want discs to own and I will always want discs to own.

[plee]

It's also about "ownership" and people feel like that have to own it,touch it, etc... If it's just a file there is no real thing you can hold and see, until this changes, I don't think we'll every see then end of physical media.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by sardaukar1977

CD's tapes and LP's are still around, hell even 8 tracks are still in demand by some people. Itunes didn't eliminate that.

A better indicator is iTunes vs CD. After five years of digital audio players CD still has around 75% market share (of music people actually pay for). I wish I had a link for this.

[bhuyanp]

Originally Posted by bhampton

5) More and more people every day decide that Microsoft already has enough of their money.

What does that mean in this context?

[hc666]

Discs will never die just because!

Can you imagine, having all your purchased movies on some box with a hard drive and then having a failure or a fire? Lose everything! How would insurance replace your 'data'?

At least with discs everything is physical and be proved as bought in the event of a fire or whatever.

[Seabass]

The people pimping digital downloads (The ones that want Blu-ray to die out of spite) have no coherent defense for the psychological impact optical media brings.

Their spin on this is not only obnoxious but arrogant as well. You can bring facts on a physical level (The tech will progress) but color me surprised that all these FUDsters can look into every human being's psyche and deternine they will give up optical media outright.

All ten of these reasons are just the tip of the iceberg. Unless an Act of Congress passes which states any kind of "hard" disk or card is outlawed people will always desire something not only to play at their convenience but having the satisfaction of the feeling of ownership (Even if they "technically" don't).

[GeorgeCaplan]

With all due respect to OP, the title should have been something like - 10 reasons why HD downloads won't be adopted by the masses
But otherwise I tend to agree with you

However I could see an alternative to HD Discs.
Some variation on flash cards
Today you can get 8GB, which could easily carry the same content as a double sided DVD
2~3 years should be >64GB

Obviously price point would have to drop too, which would take a little longer. Also the cards would be mostly read only which would bring the price down.

But advantages would be
-Much more damage resistant than a disc
-Players would have no moving parts - quiet operation, smaller, less power hungry
-Smaller, easy to store in the house
-Possible to have personalised content.

OK it might not happen, but it could do
I would be very tempted.

[Firestreak]

I think we'll be buying movies and then burning them. Maybe we'll have a box with an ethernet port on top of our TV, and we can order "Rocky 7" and pay $4 to watch it a few days. Then we can pay an additional $5 and have it burned onto a blu-ray disc. In this respect the blu-ray media is still alive and kicking, it's just the retailers who are cut out of the equation.

[bhampton]

Bhuyanp,

I keep reading the "downloads will be the future" notion comes form Microsoft. I assume they have figured out how to set it up so that it puts more money in their pockets.

-Brian

[tron3]

Good thread. As I have said, people want a sense of ownership. Like many here, I want the disc, the blu case, and the artwork.

With d/l technology all I get is some sort of box. My PC is a box too, but I don't get enjoyment seeing it sit on the floor next to my desk. I do get enjoyment from the content. With DVD, and now blu-ray, I have the satisfaction of seeing it on my shelf, not in some pointless directory listing.

[clownface]

All of those reasons are true but number 11 should be storage capacity and failure. Every home will need a minumum of 1 terabyte for downloaded HD movies and no matter what from time to time hard drives just die...period.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by Teazle

A better indicator is iTunes vs CD. After five years of digital audio players CD still has around 75% market share (of music people actually pay for). I wish I had a link for this.

And as I said in a different thread, movies will be far more resistant to download than music. Your point is a good one and I am just adding to it. iTunes downloads are overwhelmingly people picking up hot singles rather than entire albums. iTunes gives people the chance to avoid paying for content they don't want... i.e. the filler on most pop CDs. Movies will not have that same phenomenon. Also people who purchase movies do so because they want to keep and collect that content. meanwhile downloading sinlges for $0.99 is largely a disposable event.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by bhuyanp

What does that mean in this context?

MicroSoft intends to be the primary force behind downloadle video.

[Talamar]

Excellent post. I agree with many that proponents of downloads are not taking into account hard drive failure. Every hard drive fails, and if all your movies are on it you just lost everything. What are the odds of all your DVD's failing at the same time? It would have to occur due to theft, fire, or another natural disaster; and if that happens you have bigger problems than losing your movie collection. Add the fact that the vast majority of people do not perform regular backups, digital downloads are a risky way to permanently store your movie collection.

Oh, and I just got a new vinyl for Christmas

[bhuyanp]

Originally Posted by bhampton

Bhuyanp,

I keep reading the "downloads will be the future" notion comes form Microsoft. I assume they have figured out how to set it up so that it puts more money in their pockets.

-Brian

If you are ill informed then you will follow M$.

If you are well informed then you won't.

What are you?

[bhuyanp]

Originally Posted by GeorgeCaplan

With all due respect to OP, the title should have been something like - 10 reasons why HD downloads won't be adopted by the masses
But otherwise I tend to agree with you

However I could see an alternative to HD Discs.
Some variation on flash cards
Today you can get 8GB, which could easily carry the same content as a double sided DVD
2~3 years should be >64GB

Obviously price point would have to drop too, which would take a little longer. Also the cards would be mostly read only which would bring the price down.

But advantages would be
-Much more damage resistant than a disc
-Players would have no moving parts - quiet operation, smaller, less power hungry
-Smaller, easy to store in the house
-Possible to have personalised content.

OK it might not happen, but it could do
I would be very tempted.

I agree. It is digital distribution vs. physical media. I will update the title accordingly. Appreciate the correction.