Why I thought BluRay would win

[Damon Payne]

As a software developer who works almost entirely with Microsoft tech these days, I took a lot of flak from friends and co-workers for supporting BluRay. I recently collected my thoughts as to why I initially thought BluRay woudl win the format war, or at the very least was the better standard on paper. Might be a decent read:

http://www.damonpayne.com/PermaLink,...943a80787.aspx

[Blubaru]

Well it most certainly won't fail because at this point Blu-ray can't fail. There is no way HD-DVD can get back in front of Blu-ray.

Good read btw!

[JTK]

Nice read.

The only way BD could outright fail or lose at this point would be repated, continuous, and cataclysmic implosions from the inside.
^^
Never happen.

[Blubaru]

Originally Posted by JTK

Nice read.

The only way BD could outright fail or lose at this point would be repated, continuous, and cataclysmic implosions from the inside.
^^
Never happen.

That's what they said about the Death Star but look what happened(Twice)
^^
Geek

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Blubaru

That's what they said about the Death Star but look what happened(Twice)
^^
Geek

^^

Originally Posted by Darth Vader

I find your lack of faith disturbing...

*points fingers*

[Damon Payne]

I am steadily growing my library of BD titles, but I think its far too early to say that BluRay cannot lose. I see evidence of unexplainable bias all the time:
-In Home Theater magazine, they have a dedicated review section of HD-DVD movies each month. Where is the BluRay disc review section?

-HighDefDigest, Engadget HD and many other news sources continually have intervies with evangelists and post things like "The HD-DVD juggernaut", which means either key media outlets are not seeing the writing on the wall yet or BDA is not doing its marketing and community evangelism very well. personally I think it's the latter.

BD is clearly winning by a tremendous margin right now, but its too early to tell.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

I am steadily growing my library of BD titles, but I think its far too early to say that BluRay cannot lose. I see evidence of unexplainable bias all the time:
-In Home Theater magazine, they have a dedicated review section of HD-DVD movies each month. Where is the BluRay disc review section?

To their credit, they actually had said: "We know the Samsung has a NR chip issue pre firmware so we held off on BD reviews until this was fixed for more accuracy."


Now that other BD players are out, including the PS3, they do need to start getting on the ball.

This last issue also had their editors put the PS3 over quite nicely in their front page commentary blurbs. You could tell they were pleasantly surprised, but hey, that's good!

-HighDefDigest, Engadget HD and many other news sources continually have intervies with evangelists and post things like "The HD-DVD juggernaut", which means either key media outlets are not seeing the writing on the wall yet or BDA is not doing its marketing and community evangelism very well. personally I think it's the latter.

http://www.engadget.com/2006/02/15/s...sidents-discs/

^^ Even they're starting to get the idea, though.

BD is clearly winning by a tremendous margin right now, but its too early to tell.

Fair enough, although I think you'd have to admit: Some truly improbable things would have to happen for BD to lose the growing, current trend/lead it has and one of those things would have to be the loss of at least one, if not more, of the big exclusive studios it has.

Something like Disney supporting both formats, for example.

I just don't think things like that will ever happen, again barring some really crazy and improbable events.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Blubaru

That's what they said about the Death Star but look what happened(Twice)
^^
Geek

ROTFLMAO!!!!

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Damon Payne

BD is clearly winning by a tremendous margin right now, but its too early to tell.

Since NPD has indicated the numbers of standalones are about even, it becomes the PS/3 v. 360 add-on, and that is no contest.

There has to be a massive turnaround in HD DVD fortunes NOW. At the current rate of bleeding (users going neutral or outright switching) it could be dead by the summer.

Japan is gone. Europe could be lost with the PS/3 release.

Unless MS offers a huge subsidy on those Chinese players, there is nothing on the horizon to think HD DVD is going anywhere now. (And I can't see MS shareholders accepting a subsidy for a non-core promotion).

For many, the Spielberg title debacle will be the last straw. In fact, how can they trust the Universal list either? No dates have been given. Only promises.

Gary

[JTK]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Since NPD has indicated the numbers of standalones are about even. It becomes the PS/3 v. 360 add-on, and that is no contest.

There has to be a massive turnaround in HD DVD fortunes NOW. At the current rate of bleeding (users going neutral or outright switching) it could be dead by the summer.

Unless MS offers a huge subsidy on those Chinese players, nothing is on the horizon to think HD DVD is going anywhere now. (And I can't see MS shareholders accepting a subsidy for a non-core promotion).

Gary

And it would have been DOA were it not for MS and should be dead now, quite frankly.

[dobyblue]

If you're going to list Columbia (spelling wrong) and Tri-Star separately then you should also list Buena Vista, Miramax, Hollywood Pictures and Touchstone, United Artists and Touchstone in there as well as Blu-ray exclusive studios.

[Damon Payne]

Originally Posted by dobyblue

If you're going to list Columbia (spelling wrong) and Tri-Star separately then you should also list Buena Vista, Miramax, Hollywood Pictures and Touchstone, United Artists and Touchstone in there as well as Blu-ray exclusive studios.

Heh, I did have the disclaimer that I don't have a studio org chart! Someone should make that, it would be very informative. I'm goign to start a different thread.

[blitz6speed]

Nice article, but there are some mistakes there. To get 1080p for HD-DVD you need to buy a XA2, not XA1, and it costs 999. The max bitrate for video + audio on HD-DVD is 30, not 36. Max bitrate for video + audio on Blu-Ray is 48, not 54. You also didnt list Phillips as another company who makes a Blu-Ray player. And dont forget that about *10* companys make PC Blu-Ray drives/burners. I am sure i could find more, but thats all i spotted as i skimmed through it.

[Damon Payne]

Originally Posted by blitz6speed

Nice article, but there are some mistakes there. To get 1080p for HD-DVD you need to buy a XA2, not XA1, and it costs 999. The max bitrate for video + audio on HD-DVD is 30, not 36. Max bitrate for video + audio on Blu-Ray is 48, not 54. You also didnt list Phillips as another company who makes a Blu-Ray player. And dont forget that about *10* companys make PC Blu-Ray drives/burners. I am sure i could find more, but thats all i spotted as i skimmed through it.

I used the max data transfer rate for video+audio from https://www.blu-ray.com/faq/ since there is a max Video bit rate but not a max Video+audio bit rate specifically listed, what is your source for this information?

XA2 is a typo and I'll fix, and add phillips. If you have studio information see my "studio org chart" thread.

[JohnnyBluRay]

I love the color Blu(e)

[mbslrm]

The only thing that is sorta slowing down BD right now, is the fact that most video rental outlets don't carry BD.

[Banjo]

Originally Posted by mbslrm

The only thing that is sorta slowing down BD right now, is the fact that most video rental outlets don't carry BD.

Funnily enough, when DVD first came out... they were so quick to rent out DVD players to any interested customers.

Why isn't this the case with either HD-DVD and Blu-Ray?

Just found it somewhere puzzling. :-/

[Blue]

Originally Posted by Banjo

Funnily enough, when DVD first came out... they were so quick to rent out DVD players to any interested customers.

Why isn't this the case with either HD-DVD and Blu-Ray?

Just found it somewhere puzzling. :-/

Maybe the assumption is that if you can afford to go out and buy a HD TV you can buy a HD optical media player.

Without a HD TV there is no benifit of Blu-ray. Then the problems of people that think they have a HD TV and don't, not to mention problems with connecting up the player (assuming the TV does not have HDMI).

DVD's were in the interests of the rental stores and for an easy connection to nearly all TV's there was an immense benifit. Connecting a Blu-ray player to a non HDMI TV has plenty of potential problems. The rental stores can't afford to handle problems, they are low service, low profit margin, so only work on bulk throughput. Having somone have to deal with irate customers is the last thing they need - especially when there is no benifit (tape rewinds chewed tape, tapes swapped etc) vs DVD.

[joeorc]

Originally Posted by Blue

Maybe the assumption is that if you can afford to go out and buy a HD TV you can buy a HD optical media player.

Without a HD TV there is no benifit of Blu-ray. Then the problems of people that think they have a HD TV and don't, not to mention problems with connecting up the player (assuming the TV does not have HDMI).

DVD's were in the interests of the rental stores and for an easy connection to nearly all TV's there was an immense benifit. Connecting a Blu-ray player to a non HDMI TV has plenty of potential problems. The rental stores can't afford to handle problems, they are low service, low profit margin, so only work on bulk throughput. Having somone have to deal with irate customers is the last thing they need - especially when there is no benifit (tape rewinds chewed tape, tapes swapped etc) vs DVD.

aah.. you are correct but one thing to consider..

the real key there..see that is what SONY an the BDA know is one of the strength's of Blu-Ray..you don't have to have HD-TV to enjoy the benefits of BLU-RAY because BLU-RAY is not just used for movies..its also used for games..an the entertainment of the GAME an how much fun the game is to play. an that helps sell blu-ray disc's..yes granted HD-TV's help with that enjoyment..but the format does not have to rely on "just movies" an that is the real problem with HD-DVD.

BY DOING WHAT MICROSOFT DID..they pretty much in the consumer's eye's regulated the HD-DVD format to a MOVIE only format an you know TOSHIBA IS NOT HAPPY ABOUT THAT...NO WAY ARE THEY HAPPY ABOUT THAT...

..while BLU-RAY is a multi-use format..an remember before the PC industry started useing DVD disc's for games..the playstation 2 from SONY was already useing the DVD format for other things besides movies.

[boweyang]

Personally, I believe that if we don't support Blu-ray more and spread the word instead of just seeing what happens, we may just see another John Kerry/George Bush Fiasco. As for the Death Star, HA.......... HA HA.......... HA HA HA........... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA, I like this comparison way better than mine. I know that BR (John Kerry (I don't know) , Linux, the Colts, (Please Insert Anything Else Here) is in everyway better that HDDVD (George Bush, MS, the Bears (I like the Chi-town), (Please Insert Anything Else Here)), but without support and just seeing what happens, it won't turn the way we want sometimes.

So I will sit here, watch my Alien vs. Predator, smoke my MaryJ and watch you all buy BR