Timewarp 1996: why DVD will fail

[Grubert]

A member of HDD posted this, which somehow I had never read. I thought it was pretty funny:


Some gems:

"Consumers will look at DVD and see that it doesn't record."

"DVD movies are supposed to have features such as multiple aspect ratios, and different languages and ratings and subtitles. There is really no true hope that any of these features will come to pass on general releases."

"I seriously doubt that most stores will offer DVD for rent for longer than 2 months after the launch."

"DVD is just barely capable of LD quality resolution."

"It is correct to ask whether or not the companies can make discs to the exacting standards required by DVD in the large quantities and speeds required by the mass market."

"I think DVD is going to destroy the market. Why? Companies are looking to DVD as the Great Hope. They are putting all their resources into it, putting all their eggs into one basket, so to speak. When it ultimately fails, they will lose hundreds of millions of dollars."

And the closing paragraph has been used verbatim (with only a format name change) recently:

"DVD is just a bad idea. It is being forced upon a uncaring and unwanted public and is an inferior product that simply isn't needed or desired. DVD exists only for one reason. Greed. Motion picture studios are always looking for a way to sell the same stuff over and over again and they think DVD is the answer. Electronics giants are always looking for the hot new gadget that will make consumers junk their existing products and they feel that DVD is the answer. Its not. Actually, it is an answer to a non existent question. A question that has never been and never will be asked."

[Maximus]

That's brilliant...

Hopefully in 10 years time we will be able to look back at the crap spread about Blu-ray and have good laugh.

[Spankey]

I've been saying all along that the HD-DVD people were using recycled arguments.

The main difference this time around was that it was supposed "HT Enthusiasts" and HT publications making them.

[tron3]

If you replace DVD with HD DVD at least he is right about them losing hundreds of millions of dollars.

[dialog_gvf]

DVD was inferior to what? Laserdisc?

There is some argument there with respect to audio (DTS was always 1.44Mbps, versus DVD being generally half-rate). But, the video improvement blew away that issue for the general consumer.

I was a huge Laserdisc fan. And I switched almost immediately. I had no doubts at all that DVD was going to become dominant, for the exact same reasons people went from LP to CD:

Convenience, portability, durability, and quality

This time (currently), there is only quality (edit: and durability) to drive the adoption, so it will be slower than with VHS --> DVD. But, ultimately something will be invented for Blu-ray + BD-Live + ??? that will make it so compelling to the masses that it will trigger mass adoption.

Perhaps it will be 3D.

Gary

[Blu Haze]

DVD 4 Life

[Musashi]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Convenience, portability, durability, and quality

This time (currently), there is only quality to drive the adoption,

And durability. Don't forget, Blu-ray is hard-coated.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Musashi

And durability. Don't forget, Blu-ray is hard-coated.

Oops. You're absolutely right. Let me update that.

That is perhaps more significant than between VHS and DVD. Although it will only affect those who have had troubles. For parents, I expect it to be a big deal.

It's very significant for rentailers, too.

Gary

[dobyblue]

Great find, that's hilarious.

There is no doubt in my mind at all that Blu-ray will see mass market adoption within the next 2 years and will have a title move 1,000,000 discs within the next 12 months.

[JTK]

Truly incredible. Great find, Grubert!