High def war poll results over at IMDb

[J_UNTITLED]

A disturbing trend in results has risen over at IMDb(Internet Movie Database) on their latest poll. They've asked users what they think Paramount/DreamWorks dropping Blu-ray support and going for HD-DVD only and the results are highest (a whopping 1669 users so far) for this option...


"have neither system and this makes want to enter HD media even less. I'll stick with DVD for the time being."


The second highest-ranking result went to this option (295 users thus far)...


"I have no opinion."


Rounding out the top three comes this painfully ironic result (with 278 users)...


"What is HD-DVD and Blu-ray?"

[Sushisake]

I am blu-ray all the way, but it is very unnerving to talk to friends about blu-ray and all that has been going on and being told that they either have not made a choice or are waiting for the clear winner to emerge before spending their money. The best thing we can all do is call freinds, family, etc and sing the praises of blu-ray - so as to continuously educate and win more and more support. Someone is missing out on what marketing is all about and leaving the majority of the public up for grabs by the vultures in suits over at Microsoft.

[Icemage]

Not good for HDM in general.

Silver lining though: Time is HD DVD's enemy. Blu-ray's 1.1 and 2.0 Profile specs will close the interactivity gap, and time will see Blu-ray hardware coming down to match HD DVD. It will also see replication costs for Blu-ray coming down much faster, since Blu-ray presses way more discs than HD DVD, courtesy of the PlayStation 3. Should Blu-ray hardware make it into the same ballpark as HD DVD, HD DVD has zero chance to win IMO.

[J_UNTITLED]

I just unfortunately feel there's a solid chance people will bypass high defintion discs entirely and just stick with ole' DVD until something vastly different arrives.

[whippersnapper]

Originally Posted by Sushisake

........... The best thing we can all do is call freinds, family, etc and sing the praises of blu-ray - so as to continuously educate and win more and more support...

And invite them to your house and include watching a good Blu-ray movie. That really helps make believers of them.

[Icemage]

Originally Posted by J_UNTITLED

I just unfortunately feel there's a solid chance people will bypass high defintion discs entirely and just stick with ole' DVD until something vastly different arrives.

Well, here's the timeline:

Now -> DVD
...
<something>
...
10 years from now -> video on demand

That <something> is what Blu-ray is trying to be. DVD sales are falling flat because the studios have been over-eager to release and re-release and re-re-release the same content over and over. Piracy is cutting into DVD sales, double/triple/worse dipping is cutting into sales, and even DVD hardware is taking a dive in sales because pretty much everyone that wants one... has one.

In theory, DVD could persist for 10 more years unmolested, but for two things:

(1) Analog signal blackout in the USA in 2009
(2) Display hardware (HDTVs) all shifting to HD resolution, which makes even upscaling questionable.

If Blu-ray hardware can get down to sub-$100 levels in, say, three or four years, and the software can hit sub-$20 levels in the same timeframe, the circle becomes complete and it should make it to mass market.

Incidentally, HD DVD's strategy is trying for an end run around this by drastically dropping hardware pricing. What the red camp doesn't want to acknowledge is that mass market won't happen while discs are still priced in the $35-$40 MSRP range, so the cheapest hardware pricing in the world won't matter since not many can afford the discs to play on said hardware.

[J_UNTITLED]

Originally Posted by Icemage

Well, here's the timeline:

Now -> DVD
...
<something>
...
10 years from now -> video on demand

I'm sorry, but if video-on-demand really will be the so-called "revolution" in the future it will not be for me. I like to have something physical/tangible to own and hold on to versus just watching something streaming on the web.

[Icemage]

Originally Posted by J_UNTITLED

I'm sorry, but if video-on-demand really will be the so-called "revolution" in the future it will not be for me. I like to have something physical/tangible to own and hold on to versus just watching something streaming on the web.

I agree, but that's still the direction things are headed. Physical media will still be around, however, since not everyone will have the connectivity to make use of VOD (nor the desire, as in your case).

[J_UNTITLED]

Originally Posted by Icemage

I agree, but that's still the direction things are headed. Physical media will still be around, however, since not everyone will have the connectivity to make use of VOD (nor the desire, as in your case).

Plus, I just don't see how something streamed or broadcasted like that will have the same amount of reliable quality (or just quality, period) that something in-the-flesh so to speak can offer.

[Icemage]

Originally Posted by J_UNTITLED

Plus, I just don't see how something streamed or broadcasted like that will have the same amount of reliable quality (or just quality, period) that something in-the-flesh so to speak can offer.

It won't, naturally.

That hasn't stopped the proliferation of MP3s over DVD-A/SACD, however.

[blujacket]

I don't put much stock in polls. In the last week I've seen Spiderman Blu-ray demos at Sams club. I believe the word is spreading.

[blujacket]

I also don't think downloads will be ready for awhile. ISP'S just don't have the bandwidth to deliver the goods yet. IMO

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by Icemage

It won't, naturally.

That hasn't stopped the proliferation of MP3s over DVD-A/SACD, however.

MP3 is winning not because of the quality, it's winning because it's easily portable. How many MP3 portable players are on the market?

DVD-A and SACD will never enter the portable (consumer convenient) market because the files are simply too large. Even if they did make a portable that would hold a few songs you probably could not tell the difference in quality if listening to the music with headphones as your walking down the street. MP3 and DVD-A/SACD are not catering to the same consumer. DVD-A and SACD are formats for audiophiles only.

However, the hi-def market is not just for high-end consumers and will be the standard come 2009. There are millions of HDTV's in people's homes right now and there are only 2 options for hi-def on disc. Yeah, people could continue using DVD upscaled and the majority probably will until prices on the software come down closer to DVD software prices.

I'll go on record as saying that mid/hi-def downloads will not gain any more ground than regular Pay-Per-View. In order to maintain a collection you would have to have a lot of hard drives. A 1 TB drive could only hold about 25 hi-def (1080p) movies and maybe 50 mid-def (720p) movies. Having multiple hard-drives defeats the convenience of the format. Until they start making hard-drives that are easily portable and in the 500-1000 TB range I just don't see mid/hi-def downloads as a successor to DVD.

But, to say that DVD-A and SACD losing over MP3 is mirroring that HD-DVD and Blu-ray will lose to mid/hi-def download is a bad analogy because MP3 and DVD-A/SACD are completely different beasts. If anything HD-DVD/Blu-ray would be considered the "MP3" in your scenario because it's easily portable. Would you rather take a Blu-ray disc to a friends house to watch Independence Day or would you rather take your hard drive?

[The Guardian]

I think they're expecting Flash memory to eventually replace the type of hard drives we use now for most applications.... So you could have one large central "drive" storing all of your movies and when you want to take one to a friend's you move that one movie onto a keychain thing. Or something.

Of course the studios and MPAA and all them will have to have a go at copy protection/DRM on all that first heh.

[Li'l Nicky]

Originally Posted by Slapper

MP3 is winning not because of the quality, it's winning because it's easily portable. How many MP3 portable players are on the market?

DVD-A and SACD will never enter the portable (consumer convenient) market because the files are simply too large. Even if they did make a portable that would hold a few songs you probably could not tell the difference in quality if listening to the music with headphones as your walking down the street. MP3 and DVD-A/SACD are not catering to the same consumer. DVD-A and SACD are formats for audiophiles only.

However, the hi-def market is not just for high-end consumers and will be the standard come 2009. There are millions of HDTV's in people's homes right now and there are only 2 options for hi-def on disc. Yeah, people could continue using DVD upscaled and the majority probably will until prices on the software come down closer to DVD software prices.

I'll go on record as saying that mid/hi-def downloads will not gain any more ground than regular Pay-Per-View. In order to maintain a collection you would have to have a lot of hard drives. A 1 TB drive could only hold about 25 hi-def (1080p) movies and maybe 50 mid-def (720p) movies. Having multiple hard-drives defeats the convenience of the format. Until they start making hard-drives that are easily portable and in the 500-1000 TB range I just don't see mid/hi-def downloads as a successor to DVD.

But, to say that DVD-A and SACD losing over MP3 is mirroring that HD-DVD and Blu-ray will lose to mid/hi-def download is a bad analogy because MP3 and DVD-A/SACD are completely different beasts. If anything HD-DVD/Blu-ray would be considered the "MP3" in your scenario because it's easily portable. Would you rather take a Blu-ray disc to a friends house to watch Independence Day or would you rather take your hard drive?

Don't forget that your hard drive will inevitably die and that will be very inconvenient to say the least. I prefer discs with the cover art and everything. When I fork out money for something, it's nice to see and feel something tangible..and to have that feeling of ownership.

[BluFox]

I always thought that if people are staying away from HDM, because of the war, then Blu-ray is still in prime position. The simply reason is by default we are selling PS3 to gamers anyway. Just a little bit of advertizing is needed for gamers to try BD and the word spreads from there.

As Sony drops the price further, as gaming content increases, PS3 sales can really take off.

However, BD can't loose more content, I know the content share is still with us, but losing anymore will really hit BDs confidence.

EDIT: I think we are years and years off until a mass market viable and realiable download movie service comes to threaten optical media.

[mikesoba]

Originally Posted by Li'l Nicky

Don't forget that your hard drive will inevitably die and that will be very inconvenient to say the least. I prefer discs with the cover art and everything. When I fork out money for something, it's nice to see and feel something tangible..and to have that feeling of ownership.

You assume that you will own and keep the movie that is downloaded. I believe this is the wrong assumption. There will be a concerted effort to limit the number of viewings or the time frame in which you can view titles. If HD fails (and it will if this war does not end soon, as the survey implies), there will be an end to movie ownership. And in steps MS.

[red_5ive]

This imdb poll doesn't surprise me. Generally, these are the answers I've gotten from people when bringing up the subject. Even the majority of techies at my work can care less for it. But - I will continue to keep pushing blu!

[Rheologuy]

The more I think about this and sort out my feelings, the more I think/feel that even without Paramount's shift, this "war" is and will be for some time more of a tempest in a teapot, without a clear winner. We care, but does anyone else? Reasons are (a) the HD market is still a very tiny fraction of total number of DVD's sold, and (b) that won't change until price of hardware and software is virtually competitive with SD DVD (and Joe Blow begins to understand HD). The majority of people are too cheap and unmotivated yet to spend what it takes for the thrill of HD. They don't see it. I.e., those of us who are fussing and fuming over it all are too far ahead of the curve (that's OK--makes me feel smart. I'm an early adopter! Read something here that said, "no, we're early-early adopters".). Think it will take a lot longer to catch up with us. That's the reason HDM releases have been so slow, isn't it? That's why it feels to us like they're not really trying. Had the studios thought otherwise, we'd be flooded with HD movies-- but the market isn't there yet, and I think it'll take disappointingly long to develop without some drastic price cuts (and more consumer education efforts like Disney's). Hope I'm wrong, though.

(copied from another thread where nobody's seen it.)

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by J_UNTITLED

A disturbing trend in results has risen over at IMDb(Internet Movie Database) on their latest poll. They've asked users what they think Paramount/DreamWorks dropping Blu-ray support and going for HD-DVD only and the results are highest (a whopping 1669 users so far) for this option...

"have neither system and this makes want to enter HD media even less. I'll stick with DVD for the time being."

The second highest-ranking result went to this option (295 users thus far)...

"I have no opinion."

Rounding out the top three comes this painfully ironic result (with 278 users)...

"What is HD-DVD and Blu-ray?"

Perhaps all the studios need take a good long look at those results.

Oddly enough, it is encouraging, since it confirms the opinion that Paramount's move confuses the situation rather than being some big victory for HD DVD.

Almost everyone I talk to is absolutely happy with DVD, and can't see why they'd want HDM.

Full studio support is the foundation of HDM adoption. Graffeo and his cheap hardware first concept is a plain idiot.

Gary