Microsoft: "Downloads will overtake discs in 12-18 months" - Blu-ray Forum

scoobiesnackarff · 03-14-2008, 03:23 PM

http://www.maxconsole.net/?mode=news&newsid=26082

"That's the future direction, and I think that's going to be the case in the next 12-18 months," he predicted. "I think we're going to be talking much more about that than anything else. Do I think that this Christmas will somehow be defined by DVD playback? I genuinely don't think that will be the case. I do not think that [the demise of HD DVD] will have any material impact on our console velocity. And I think other factors, specifically our architecture around downloads, is far more advantageous and important for the future."

He added: "We are best placed to offer that, we already offer that, our online pedigree is such that we will offer the best and most seamless experience."
_______________________________________________
I guess Micro didn't get the memo that Walmart gave up on downloads, Amazon's service isn't doing well, Apple hasn't done what it expected and oh yea, that little factoid about broadband not being to where it needs to be and the fact that people enjoy having a hard copy of their movies. So yea, I suppose downloads will defeat discs in a year and half just like HDDVD was going to defeat Blu.
Alan

ryoohki · 03-14-2008, 03:24 PM

Humm i know.. what.. 100 people here at work and family and friend... and there's about 0% of them that are equipped for Download.... some of them never got internet and don't plan to..

Slapper · 03-14-2008, 03:25 PM

"Blah blah blah..."

12-18 months my ass.

Razzy · 03-14-2008, 03:27 PM

If M$ says it's so than it be so dammit!

IMind · 03-14-2008, 03:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scoobiesnackarff

http://www.maxconsole.net/?mode=news&newsid=26082

"That's the future direction, and I think that's going to be the case in the next 12-18 months," he predicted. ... blah... blah.... blah

Someone wake me when music downloads overtake CD sales... then a year or five from that I'll start to worry about SD downloads.... let alone HD downloads.

Krandor · 03-14-2008, 03:28 PM

Still don't think it will happen that soon. Too many issues right now such as bandwidth limits on people, no portability for downloads (some are very tied to certain hardware), horrible DRM schemes (24 hours to watch a movie? - people like no late fee places for a reason), and it is not that easy some people to get them to their TV.

Downloads may work for rentals, but have serious problems if you want to "buy" a product.

For downloads to be successful there needs to be ONE standard that can be played accross multiple hardware devices and rental terms that are similar to Blockbuster or Netflix. And cable companies will need to increase their infrastructure to handle the amount of extra bandwidth.

We are a long way from "downloads for the masses".

JaylisJayP · 03-14-2008, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scoobiesnackarff

http://www.maxconsole.net/?mode=news&newsid=26082

"Do I think that this Christmas will somehow be defined by DVD playback? I genuinely don't think that will be the case."

100% percent wrong. DVDs will remain the gift to give and the stocking stuffer of choice for at least another 2 years. There's too many people who shop at Wal-Mart for this to just "go away" within 12 months.

DetroitSportsFan · 03-14-2008, 03:34 PM

More FUD.

blu-rayfan101 · 03-14-2008, 03:36 PM

Like CD sales are still doing well! And how long have people had the option to download music?, along time! For DVD and Blu-ray to just disappear is insane.

Krandor · 03-14-2008, 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JaylisJayP

100% percent wrong. DVDs will remain the gift to give and the stocking stuffer of choice for at least another 2 years. There's too many people who shop at Wal-Mart for this to just "go away" within 12 months.

It isn't quite as easy to wrap a download and even if you give a "download card" or something, it isn't quite the same as getting a physical disk and then you have the following potential scenarios

1. Kid unwraps brand new download card and is so excited and wants to see the movie now. Mom has to tell him he can't watch his new present for another 2-3 hours since it has to download.

2. College kid is home for the holidays. Gets a brand new download card for Xbox marketplace. Of course his parents don't have an Xbox so he can't watch his present until he gets back to college

3. College kid home for the holidays. Gets his download card from a service his parents do have. However, it is DRM restricted so it can only every be played on the one player it is downloaded to so again he still can't watch it during the holidays since he needs it locked to his player and not is parents.

All of those make great gift giving scenarios. :-)

JAGUAR1977 · 03-14-2008, 03:41 PM

Let's see, how many family and friends download music, nevermind films.......................er, that would be one, illegaly of courrse, who pays for downloads?

CptGreedle · 03-14-2008, 03:57 PM

Just more BS and FUD.
They can't just give up and accept defeat can they?
Downloads my @$$, these things will not catch on for a few more YEARS! The infrastructure is NOT THERE to support them! The internet was NOT DESIGNED to handle movie streaming and downloading!
Besides, the time it takes to download, the technical requirements, the "geeky" nature of it, the tech savvy nature of it, the lack of computer/internet-to-TV/HDTV hookups.... all these things are screaming that downloads are not close to being ready for main stream!
Blu-ray will be around for a long time even if downloads start to take off (which they won't).
Just more hype and lies.

keene6132 · 03-14-2008, 03:58 PM

Most people prefer packaged media when purchasing to own...PERIOD...end of story!!!!

DefTechPioElite · 03-14-2008, 04:05 PM

Sorry, wrong. America is NOT ready for mainstream downloading within a year and a half. I'm not saying it will never happen, but not in that time frame. I love my packaged media with my physical discs.

I can see soccer mom now.... movie downloading...."network error".....kids screaming....."MOM WHERE IS THE MOVIE!!?!?!?!?!"...... mom says...."**** it! I'm going to Wal-Mart to just buy the BD or DVD"

Extreme.

SpaceDog · 03-14-2008, 04:17 PM

FUD for sure, but it does definitely illuminate the real reason they were so interested in HD-DVD. They should be named in the class action that someone's trying to develop on that one.

atomik kinder · 03-14-2008, 04:20 PM

Can't wait to buy one of them Microsoft Movie Download Machines. Will that be equipt with a RROD too?

One of the things that I keep thinking about is, that if you buy a machine from one company, are you locked into buying all of your movies from them? you won't be able to purchase movies from any other service? What if your hard drive dies? I can see all kinds of customer service issues coming from this. What if your service doesn't have the movie you want and another does? (is this going to be another Blu-ray VS HD DVD issue?)

Nerdkiller likes BD · 03-14-2008, 04:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slapper

"Blah blah blah..."

12-18 months my ass.

You took the words right out of my mouth.

bjoneill74 · 03-14-2008, 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefTechPioElite

I can see soccer mom now.... movie downloading...."network error".....kids screaming....."MOM WHERE IS THE MOVIE!!?!?!?!?!"...... mom says...."**** it! I'm going to Wal-Mart to just buy the BD or DVD"

Extreme.

It'd be even better when the kids are 5 minutes in and the connection drops..

There's no way a movie will download in an instant.
DVD's already hold a few GB of info.. Blu-Ray up to 50GB..

I dunno about you people.. but most folks (cable/DSL) don't have connections above 6mbps download speeds.. if that...
Fios is up to 30mbps?? that's better.. but you're assuming that the sites that serve you are up to that task.. not likely.
Then there's the reliability of home/consumer connections..

Memnoch71 · 03-14-2008, 04:21 PM

It's a Pipe dream that M$ is trying to sell to the studios. Get all of the Profits of DVD, with little to none of the Manufacturing costs! Just pay us to put it online to sell it for you! The studios are lured to it by the promise of high profit margins exceeding those of DVD sales, but the problem is getting the public to accept it. Well, that and the limitations due to hardware and infrastructure specifications that are no where near where they need to be for this to become a reality. However that's never stopped M$ before from trying to ram an inferior product down the Public's throat! Just look at Vista!

Krandor · 03-14-2008, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefTechPioElite

Sorry, wrong. America is NOT ready for mainstream downloading within a year and a half. I'm not saying it will never happen, but not in that time frame. I love my packaged media with my physical discs.

I can see soccer mom now.... movie downloading...."network error".....kids screaming....."MOM WHERE IS THE MOVIE!!?!?!?!?!"...... mom says...."**** it! I'm going to Wal-Mart to just buy the BD or DVD"

And you can't loan a download to a friend which lots of people like to do.

03-14-2008, 03:23 PM	#1
scoobiesnackarff Member Member since:Aug 2007	Microsoft: "Downloads will overtake discs in 12-18 months" http://www.maxconsole.net/?mode=news&newsid=26082 "That's the future direction, and I think that's going to be the case in the next 12-18 months," he predicted. "I think we're going to be talking much more about that than anything else. Do I think that this Christmas will somehow be defined by DVD playback? I genuinely don't think that will be the case. I do not think that [the demise of HD DVD] will have any material impact on our console velocity. And I think other factors, specifically our architecture around downloads, is far more advantageous and important for the future." He added: "We are best placed to offer that, we already offer that, our online pedigree is such that we will offer the best and most seamless experience." _______________________________________________ I guess Micro didn't get the memo that Walmart gave up on downloads, Amazon's service isn't doing well, Apple hasn't done what it expected and oh yea, that little factoid about broadband not being to where it needs to be and the fact that people enjoy having a hard copy of their movies. So yea, I suppose downloads will defeat discs in a year and half just like HDDVD was going to defeat Blu. Alan Last edited by scoobiesnackarff; 03-14-2008 at 03:32 PM.

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03-14-2008, 03:24 PM	#2
ryoohki Blu-ray Samurai Member since:May 2007 Home Theater Gallery:6 Blu-ray collection:6 Blu-ray reviews:8 Trading Score:5	Humm i know.. what.. 100 people here at work and family and friend... and there's about 0% of them that are equipped for Download.... some of them never got internet and don't plan to..

03-14-2008, 03:25 PM	#3
Slapper Special Member Member since:Aug 2007 Location:I live in a pineapple under the sea... Blu-ray collection:277	"Blah blah blah..." 12-18 months my ass.

03-14-2008, 03:27 PM	#4
Razzy Special Member Member since:Apr 2007 Location:Canada Blu-ray collection:179 Blu-ray reviews:2	If M$ says it's so than it be so dammit!

03-14-2008, 03:28 PM	#6
Krandor Active Member Member since:Feb 2008 Blu-ray collection:6	Still don't think it will happen that soon. Too many issues right now such as bandwidth limits on people, no portability for downloads (some are very tied to certain hardware), horrible DRM schemes (24 hours to watch a movie? - people like no late fee places for a reason), and it is not that easy some people to get them to their TV. Downloads may work for rentals, but have serious problems if you want to "buy" a product. For downloads to be successful there needs to be ONE standard that can be played accross multiple hardware devices and rental terms that are similar to Blockbuster or Netflix. And cable companies will need to increase their infrastructure to handle the amount of extra bandwidth. We are a long way from "downloads for the masses".

03-14-2008, 03:34 PM	#8
DetroitSportsFan Hot Deals Moderator Top contributor Member since:Aug 2007 Location:Michigan 4K collection:439 Blu-ray collection:2226 Trading Score:93	More FUD.

03-14-2008, 03:36 PM	#9
blu-rayfan101 Expert Member Member since:Aug 2007 Location:The Universe.	Like CD sales are still doing well! And how long have people had the option to download music?, along time! For DVD and Blu-ray to just disappear is insane.

03-14-2008, 03:41 PM	#11
JAGUAR1977 Special Member Member since:Aug 2007 Blu-ray reviews:1	Let's see, how many family and friends download music, nevermind films.......................er, that would be one, illegaly of courrse, who pays for downloads?

03-14-2008, 03:57 PM	#12
CptGreedle Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Sworn super-hero now services Atlanta (and suburbs). Blu-ray collection:128 Blu-ray reviews:5	Just more BS and FUD. They can't just give up and accept defeat can they? Downloads my @$$, these things will not catch on for a few more YEARS! The infrastructure is NOT THERE to support them! The internet was NOT DESIGNED to handle movie streaming and downloading! Besides, the time it takes to download, the technical requirements, the "geeky" nature of it, the tech savvy nature of it, the lack of computer/internet-to-TV/HDTV hookups.... all these things are screaming that downloads are not close to being ready for main stream! Blu-ray will be around for a long time even if downloads start to take off (which they won't). Just more hype and lies.

03-14-2008, 03:58 PM	#13
keene6132 Member Member since:Jul 2007 Location:Macon, GA Blu-ray collection:77 Blu-ray reviews:23	Most people prefer packaged media when purchasing to own...PERIOD...end of story!!!!

03-14-2008, 04:05 PM	#14
DefTechPioElite Expert Member Member since:Oct 2007 Location:Baltimore, MD Home Theater Gallery:23 Blu-ray collection:108 Blu-ray reviews:1	Sorry, wrong. America is NOT ready for mainstream downloading within a year and a half. I'm not saying it will never happen, but not in that time frame. I love my packaged media with my physical discs. I can see soccer mom now.... movie downloading...."network error".....kids screaming....."MOM WHERE IS THE MOVIE!!?!?!?!?!"...... mom says...."**** it! I'm going to Wal-Mart to just buy the BD or DVD" Extreme.

03-14-2008, 04:17 PM	#15
SpaceDog Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Jun 2007 Location:Raleigh, NC Blu-ray collection:116	FUD for sure, but it does definitely illuminate the real reason they were so interested in HD-DVD. They should be named in the class action that someone's trying to develop on that one.

03-14-2008, 04:20 PM	#16
atomik kinder Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Jun 2007 Location:Omaha NE 4K collection:- Blu-ray collection:- DVD collection:-	Can't wait to buy one of them Microsoft Movie Download Machines. Will that be equipt with a RROD too? One of the things that I keep thinking about is, that if you buy a machine from one company, are you locked into buying all of your movies from them? you won't be able to purchase movies from any other service? What if your hard drive dies? I can see all kinds of customer service issues coming from this. What if your service doesn't have the movie you want and another does? (is this going to be another Blu-ray VS HD DVD issue?)

03-14-2008, 04:21 PM	#19
Memnoch71 Senior Member Member since:Nov 2007 Location:Somewhere between here and there 4K collection:34 Blu-ray collection:252	It's a Pipe dream that M$ is trying to sell to the studios. Get all of the Profits of DVD, with little to none of the Manufacturing costs! Just pay us to put it online to sell it for you! The studios are lured to it by the promise of high profit margins exceeding those of DVD sales, but the problem is getting the public to accept it. Well, that and the limitations due to hardware and infrastructure specifications that are no where near where they need to be for this to become a reality. However that's never stopped M$ before from trying to ram an inferior product down the Public's throat! Just look at Vista!

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