A great talk about the FACTS of the war.

[Irishwiseguy2006]

I dont know if this has already been posted, but its a great article on the CRAP the M$ is trying to spread and the actual truths. Its long but a great read!

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2007/0...vs-hd-dvd-war/

[johnnymech]

Another interesting fact that I didn't see in the article is that the people responsible for DivX compression said there was no need to move to a different kind of hi-def player. They said that DivX could deliver hi-def content using existing DVDs. You would simply need a DVD player that could play the format.

Makes no difference today since Sony and Toshiba moved ahead with their plans.

[tron3]

The article may be dated 8/27/07, but still helped fill a lot of informational holes. Didn't take sides either. Remarkable.

[SamInNorthCakalakey]

Oh, he is biased, just against M$. Seems like an Apple guy (not that there's anything wrong with that).

[181]

good read. how reliable is this?

[DaViD Boulet]

nice article. Though some spots weren't 100% on the mark:

At the same time, a group lead by Toshiba including Pioneer and JVC introduced the SuperDensity Disc. For a year and a half, the two formats tried without much luck to find interest among consumers. In 1995, the groups united to form the DVD Consortium, later called the DVD Forum. That cooperation helped the single new DVD format to rapidly gain adoption.

That *hardly* characterizes the historical context under which Toshiba and Sony united to form DVD. The fact is that the two camps were at odds and refused to merge until the Computer and film industry DEMANDED a single format. Wanting to capitalize on the production volume of compter drives and studio support for software, the two camps merged.

Note: Sony's format was dual-layer, and Toshiba's format, to save $$, was dual-side (flipper).

Funny because Toshiba has consistently backed a "backwards thinking " format-position even from the days of DVD when they wanted to keep replication costs to a minimum and have people flip DVDs during a movie rather than develop a dual-layer technology for continuous-8GB play.

[al0137]

Interesting article - pretty even-headed overall. However, I'm currently enbroiled in a pretty hard fight with a good (but misguided) friend over the HD-DVD vs. Blu. It doesn't matter what hard evidence I throw at him (technical superiority, hardware/software sales, industry domination, Sony excellence, etc..), he still doesn't seem to get it.

I wanted to include a breakdown of his "opinion" on what's going to happen in this war for you to see - and give me some help over here to combat this illogic in the face of our 'blu-ray world'.

Here it is:

It is an indication of market potential; and the HD DVD market is poised to explode. Here is a speculative scenario that I present to you:

#1 Xmas 2007 $99 - $199 HD DVD players give way to HD DVD playback being added as a feature to "regular" DVD players at Xmas 2008 and beyond. DVD players without HD DVD playback begin to be phased out due to it not being cost-prohibitive to add HD DVD playback. This coincides with the majority of Blu-ray players (Sony excluded) becoming combo players at a $500.00 or lower price point. CE companies love to plaster logos all over their boxes. The HD DVD logo will look really good right next to the Blu-ray 2.0 logo..

#2 Major block-buster movies begin to be released ONLY as combos or Twin discs (HD DVD and standard DVD on the same side) for a slight premium over standard DVD costs. Perhaps bare-bones only editions of the standard DVD will still exist at the old price point. This would permanently swing the weekly sales in HD DVD's favor. A trailer would of course run at the beginning of the standard DVD version of the movie extorting the value of the HD DVD version that you already own on the same disc. Having seen this on his copy of the latest Tim Allen flick, Joe Six Pack (who just got an HDTV for nascar) figures he'll mosey on down to Walmart to pick up one of those $50 players with an HD DVD logo on the box.

#3 Early 2009: Blu-ray may still hold a slim edge in player sales due to the PS3, but (the magical) attachment rates tell the true story. The vast majority of software is being sold on the HD DVD side due to the HD DVD market multiplying many times over due to #1 and #2.

#4 All Blu-exclusive studios (except possibly Sony and Fox) go neutral by 2nd half of 2009. HD DVD is more profitable because of the lower cost to produce titles and the cheaper replication. Something little considered by internet bloggers is that HD DVD will scale nicely with the market no matter how large it grows. Blu-ray simply could not support a market as large as standard DVD because they can't produce them fast enough.

#5 HD DVD permanently becomes the preferred format of choice for consumers (due to #1 and #2) and for most studios as well (due to all points listed) by the end of 2009.

#6 Blu-ray limps along as a movie format in 2010.

#7 2011: All studios (including Sony) release on HD DVD. All but Sony release exclusively on HD DVD. Sony is the only remaining studio releasing movies on Blu-ray.

#8 2011 - 2020: The HD DVD era.

So.. given this article and the other facts about blu I already have.. how should I reply to him so he'll finally see the blu-light!

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by al0137

Interesting article - pretty even-headed overall. However, I'm currently enbroiled in a pretty hard fight with a good (but misguided) friend over the HD-DVD vs. Blu. It doesn't matter what hard evidence I throw at him (technical superiority, hardware/software sales, industry domination, Sony excellence, etc..), he still doesn't seem to get it.

I wanted to include a breakdown of his "opinion" on what's going to happen in this war for you to see - and give me some help over here to combat this illogic in the face of our 'blu-ray world'.

Here it is:

It is an indication of market potential; and the HD DVD market is poised to explode. Here is a speculative scenario that I present to you:

#1 Xmas 2007 $99 - $199 HD DVD players give way to HD DVD playback being added as a feature to "regular" DVD players at Xmas 2008 and beyond. DVD players without HD DVD playback begin to be phased out due to it not being cost-prohibitive to add HD DVD playback. This coincides with the majority of Blu-ray players (Sony excluded) becoming combo players at a $500.00 or lower price point. CE companies love to plaster logos all over their boxes. The HD DVD logo will look really good right next to the Blu-ray 2.0 logo..

#2 Major block-buster movies begin to be released ONLY as combos or Twin discs (HD DVD and standard DVD on the same side) for a slight premium over standard DVD costs. Perhaps bare-bones only editions of the standard DVD will still exist at the old price point. This would permanently swing the weekly sales in HD DVD's favor. A trailer would of course run at the beginning of the standard DVD version of the movie extorting the value of the HD DVD version that you already own on the same disc. Having seen this on his copy of the latest Tim Allen flick, Joe Six Pack (who just got an HDTV for nascar) figures he'll mosey on down to Walmart to pick up one of those $50 players with an HD DVD logo on the box.

#3 Early 2009: Blu-ray may still hold a slim edge in player sales due to the PS3, but (the magical) attachment rates tell the true story. The vast majority of software is being sold on the HD DVD side due to the HD DVD market multiplying many times over due to #1 and #2.

#4 All Blu-exclusive studios (except possibly Sony and Fox) go neutral by 2nd half of 2009. HD DVD is more profitable because of the lower cost to produce titles and the cheaper replication. Something little considered by internet bloggers is that HD DVD will scale nicely with the market no matter how large it grows. Blu-ray simply could not support a market as large as standard DVD because they can't produce them fast enough.

#5 HD DVD permanently becomes the preferred format of choice for consumers (due to #1 and #2) and for most studios as well (due to all points listed) by the end of 2009.

#6 Blu-ray limps along as a movie format in 2010.

#7 2011: All studios (including Sony) release on HD DVD. All but Sony release exclusively on HD DVD. Sony is the only remaining studio releasing movies on Blu-ray.

#8 2011 - 2020: The HD DVD era.

So.. given this article and the other facts about blu I already have.. how should I reply to him so he'll finally see the blu-light!

I'd love to see his rationale at how all major CE companies are goin dual format.
We already know the Sammy is a one off, the LG has sold only 12,000 players so they can't continue dual format much longer, meanwhile Sharp, Sony, Pioneer, Philips, Panasonic, Denon, Loewe, Marantz, Funai and JVC have aall shown prototypes of their standalone Blu-ray players.

We already know from insiders that Universal and Warner are NOT interested in moving away from a DVD only release. Only an extremely feeble minded person would think they would want to press trhe consumer like that when Sony, Disney, Fox and Lions Gate are not.

The guy is a dreamer - we have been waiting for this "HD DVD explosion" all year and still squat. Absolutely squat.

IN 2 days it will have been 27 years since the great John Lennon was shot. I suggest your buddy rent a copy of "Imagine"

[GeorgeCaplan]

There is a lot of speculation that Microsoft is pushing HD-DVD to create consumer confusion on HD Disc content, so that HD Downloads take over.

But I think this article is much closer to the truth behind Microsoft's motives. Microsoft wants Windows everywhere not just the PC. They also want to receive royalties rather than pay them, which explains the push of WMV>>VC1, and Hdi.

The codec "War" between AVC and WMV/VC1 is something MS wants desperately to win, because you are then looked into the MS world. AVC is a real threat to them.

It is a shame that VC1 got added to the Blu-ray specs, if I remember correctly, simply to appease MS.

[Frode]

Heh I wouldn't call it even-handed. It's very much slanted and not balanced. It is however an interesting way of looking at the problem and in a way that most people probably haven't thought of, and I like to post it now and then just for that.

[DaViD Boulet]

There's nothing wrong with a studio using VC-1 if that's what they want to use. It's a good thing that BD has it as an option, because without VC-1 on BD Warner wouldn't have supported the format and Microsoft would be fighting even *harder* to try to destroy it.

[Shadowself]

[QUOTE=al0137;393960]
<snip>

Originally Posted by al0137

It is an indication of market potential; and the HD DVD market is poised to explode. Here is a speculative scenario that I present to you:

Here's one way to respond. I'm sure others in this forum will have additional, possibly even better, responses.

Originally Posted by al0137

#1 Xmas 2007 $99 - $199 HD DVD players give way to HD DVD playback being added as a feature to "regular" DVD players at Xmas 2008 and beyond. DVD players without HD DVD playback begin to be phased out due to it not being cost-prohibitive to add HD DVD playback.

This just never happens. Manufacturers do no dot add more costly technology to low end devices. High end devices eventually migrate to the low end. Currently all shipping HD DVD and BD players can play DVDs. It is just as costly to create a DVD player than can play HD DVDs as it is to create a HD DVD player in the first place.

Second, the $99 players were sold at such a loss that it was ILLEGAL to sell them that way in certain states due to anti-dumping laws. Toshiba will be very lucky if they legitimately and routinely can sell $99 players everywhere in the U.S. by Christmas 2008.

Originally Posted by al0137

This coincides with the majority of Blu-ray players (Sony excluded) becoming combo players at a $500.00 or lower price point. CE companies love to plaster logos all over their boxes. The HD DVD logo will look really good right next to the Blu-ray 2.0 logo..

I assume you mean players that play DVD, HD DVD and BD when you say "combo players". These "combo players" will always be more expensive than the typical low end to mid range exclusive players simply due to two things: the optics are different between HD DVD and BD (raising costs) and royalties have to be paid to both groups. Due to these two things (and other miscellaneous costs associated with "combo players") the majority of CE vendors will most definitely not have $500 or less "combo players" a year from now.

Oh, and logos have nothing to do with it. They can cover the entire box with logos now if they really want to do so.

Originally Posted by al0137

#2 Major block-buster movies begin to be released ONLY as combos or Twin discs (HD DVD and standard DVD on the same side) for a slight premium over standard DVD costs. Perhaps bare-bones only editions of the standard DVD will still exist at the old price point. This would permanently swing the weekly sales in HD DVD's favor. A trailer would of course run at the beginning of the standard DVD version of the movie extorting the value of the HD DVD version that you already own on the same disc. Having seen this on his copy of the latest Tim Allen flick, Joe Six Pack (who just got an HDTV for nascar) figures he'll mosey on down to Walmart to pick up one of those $50 players with an HD DVD logo on the box.

Combo or twin discs are more expensive to make than simply making HD DVD disks. They will never be able to be created for a "slight premium over stadard DVD costs". Thus they will never be sold at a price slightly above DVD. This is not a long term strategy for any studio. These disks are a stop gap measure at best.

This goes back to the myth that HD DVD production costs barely more than DVD and that BD costs much, much more. This myth has been debunked so many times it's not funny anymore. Creating a HD DVD disk will always cost more than making a DVD. Creating a dual HD DVD and DVD disk will cost more than that.

Even in Toshiba's and ardent HD DVD fanatics' dreams there won't be commonly available "$50 players with an HD DVD logo on the box" for at least two to three years. The "war" will be over long before these become any kind of factor.

Originally Posted by al0137

#3 Early 2009: Blu-ray may still hold a slim edge in player sales due to the PS3, but (the magical) attachment rates tell the true story. The vast majority of software is being sold on the HD DVD side due to the HD DVD market multiplying many times over due to #1 and #2.

The reason why BD is ahead has nothing to do with "(the magical) attachment rates" theory. If Sony dropped the price on the PS3 80GB to $99 and sold 100 million of them over the next year and the attachment rate dropped to only a couple percent at the same time, the difference would be negligible and the outcome would be the same.

The simple, basic, undeniable fact is that BD media is outselling HD DVD media by over 2:1, on average, world wide. This trend does not seem to be abating at all.

With regard to the HD DVD market multiplying due to the #1 and #2 assertions have already been debunked and don't need to be redone here as the premises are false.

Originally Posted by al0137

#4 All Blu-exclusive studios (except possibly Sony and Fox) go neutral by 2nd half of 2009. HD DVD is more profitable because of the lower cost to produce titles and the cheaper replication.

Again, the myth that HD DVD is more profitable since the disks are cheaper to produce. It's a myth. Check with those who have posted in this forum for statements directly from a studio that is willing to come forth and make explicit statements about this.

Originally Posted by al0137

Something little considered by internet bloggers is that HD DVD will scale nicely with the market no matter how large it grows. Blu-ray simply could not support a market as large as standard DVD because they can't produce them fast enough.

This is another myth that was dispelled months ago. The HD DVD FUD purveyors were trying to convince people that the production lines for BD were having terrible yields which led to BD disk shortages and high prices and a reluctance to build new lines until the bugs were worked out. Well, none of this is true.

Originally Posted by al0137

#5 HD DVD permanently becomes the preferred format of choice for consumers (due to #1 and #2) and for most studios as well (due to all points listed) by the end of 2009.

The premises upon which this and the remaining statements are made are all false. Therefore the conclusions are all false. Period.

[Frode]

This is another myth that was dispelled months ago. The HD DVD FUD purveyors were trying to convince people that the production lines for BD were having terrible yields which led to BD disk shortages and high prices and a reluctance to build new lines until the bugs were worked out. Well, none of this is true.

Exactly. I think the 21 million BDs produced for the European market should put the nails in that coffin.

[JimPullan]

Here's an interesting read from Business Week. Here's the link:

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...3028294846.htm

Jim

[cartier]

Originally Posted by al0137

Interesting article - pretty even-headed overall. However, I'm currently enbroiled in a pretty hard fight with a good (but misguided) friend over the HD-DVD vs. Blu. It doesn't matter what hard evidence I throw at him (technical superiority, hardware/software sales, industry domination, Sony excellence, etc..), he still doesn't seem to get it.

I wanted to include a breakdown of his "opinion" on what's going to happen in this war for you to see - and give me some help over here to combat this illogic in the face of our 'blu-ray world'.

Here it is:

[I]It is an indication of market potential; and the HD DVD market is poised to explode. Here is a speculative scenario that I present to you:


So.. given this article and the other facts about blu I already have.. how should I reply to him so he'll finally see the blu-light!

The article provides some good evidence to address most of your friends unsubstantiated beliefs. There is however one point your friend is missing. Toshiba is loosing hundred of dollars for every player sold and as the only manufacturer it is consumers who loose out, even with cheap no-name brands people will not believe it to be high tech when so many other CE's are making blu-ray players and actually making money. Money which leads to the development of newer and better technology. If HD DVD wins, its victory will taste as bitter as defeat. They will have won the race to the bottom and have nothing to show for it.

[camper]

Originally Posted by GeorgeCaplan

There is a lot of speculation that Microsoft is pushing HD-DVD to create consumer confusion on HD Disc content, so that HD Downloads take over.

And I think that HD Downloads are a pipedream.

Not only do consumers want some sort of tangible media (especially in the realm of films) but FIOS will have to be at the door of every household in order to handle the bandwidth. The average person does not have the time or patience of a 14 year old with an edonkey account to download a film and then watch it.

Not to mention the routing and server capacity required for a studio or distributor to make the films available.

If HD Downloads were to take off, it would only be after some significant improvement to existing telephone and cable lines. The cost would be extraordinarily expensive to start, and could not happen fast enough for HDM to be a 'transition' in any way significant enough that this could be a Microsoft ploy to perfect digital downloads.

There's a reason why Satellite and Cable providers have a limited amount of Pay per view HD movies available, it isn't practical until the infrastructure is greatly improved. If anything, this (coupled with a DVR) is the greatest threat to HDM (and standard DVD).

Fair is fair, Microsoft is pushing HD-DVD because that's the horse they bet on and they want it to win. Though, one has to wonder why the HD-DVD player is an add-on for XBox, and not a built in. One would think that if HD-DVD fails, it wouldn't require much to recover quickly and create a Blu Ray add on for the XBox 360 to take its place...

~camper

[saprano]

wow guys did you read this part: Bill Hunt of Digital Bits explained to InternetNews that Toshiba was ready to drop HD-DVD and join Blu-ray in 2005 until an unnamed company, which Hunt believes to be Microsoft, “pressured the company to stick with HD DVD since so much time and money had been invested in it.”

“Everything I’ve been told,” Hunt said, “is a lot of people in the HD DVD camp were ready to throw in the towel in late 2005 and something kept them from doing it. Microsoft seems to be the company that is running around crowing the loudest about HD DVD.”

microsoft needs to stop this sh#$t

[Blu As Hell]

I read this article about 3 months ago and I saved it to my favorites so I can show people what a manipulative puppetmaster Microsoft truly is.

[saprano]

thats ok, this war shows us that you can have billions of dollers, but that dont mean you can win everthing.

[saprano]

and i just hit 200 post, yay