Bill Hunt's latest on the format war (September 12)

[DJeffries]

Seems Bill felt the need to defend his position on hometheaterforum.com. This is a long post and is not on The Digital Bits (at least not yet).

http://www.hometheaterforum.com/htf/...postcount=1442

I love this line

"It’s getting a little silly when even the people who actually ARE getting paid to promote each format spend more time in the online newsgroups attacking the competition as opposed to promoting the merits of their own. "

[ReduxInflux]

thanks for the link. good stuff. i wish every studio exec would read this.

[dialog_gvf]

I've been saying the same thing for years.

Hopefully "methinks thou doeth protest too much" comes to the minds of the general consumer.

Wow, 1 in 3 combos fail for the gang at The Digital Bits?! That's insane. Wait until the Venturer buyers get a taste of that.

Where are the "press" stories about the terrible problems with HD DVD discs?!

Originally Posted by Bill Hunt

Now we’re hearing that triple-layer HD-DVD discs will solve all the format’s disc space concerns, when we can’t get roughly 1 in every 3 DVD/HD-DVD Combo discs to work in our Toshiba HD-A2s.

Gary

[WickyWoo]

Where are the "press" stories about the terrible problems with HD DVD discs?!

I agree. The BDA's standing policy is that "homey don't play the negative game"

There are other well-known public organizations that have trouble doing it to. The difference is that none of these studios have ever HAD to play that game before

Learn from the lessons of the past. Amir and company are out there Karl Roving them right now. You must always be willing to go lower than your opponent. There comes a time that no matter how right you are, that you stop saying "please stop being a jerk" while they take a jackhammer to your balls, and send a nuke where the sun don't shine.

BDA has the tech and software end, they're losing the perception battle bigtime.

[WickyWoo]

Word was that Universal was checking out BD authoring earlier in the year, but then decided to stay exclusive to HD DVD. Are you saying they are back at it (i.e. poking around again)? This would be an interesting new development of an old story.

I don't think they ever stopped. I just think they got a new check to make sure their exclusivity went through Christmas when it became obvious the "100 titles" clause was going to be satisfied in time for them to jump. Uni's crazy blitz of releases says 1 thing to me- They were planning to go Blu and were fufilling the contract so they could get out.

Wasn't early word that the Paramount/Dreamworks "promotional considerations" deal for HD DVD was a pre-emptive "strike" because the bottom was falling out of HD DVD behind the scenes?

Oh it definatley was. If Uni's looking to jump (which visits to authoring houses indicates), then that should tell you all you need to know

Anyone notice that New Line has delayed HD DVD releases until 2008?

Is regional coding the reason, or the excuse pending Warner's end of year decision? It wouldn't look good to start releasing only to have your sister company dump support a few months later.

There's no reason to believe what they said wasn't true. I'm sure the disc is done anyway

[ps3andlovinit]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Where are the "press" stories about the terrible problems with HD DVD discs?!Gary

Same place the 360 failures were for over a year .. being suppressed/ignored in the hope people won't find out until their invested and then are stuck.

[E-Dogg]

Great article. Let's make this a Blu holiday season.

[Blu As Hell]

Originally Posted by Teazle

Warner seems to be giving HD-DVD one last chance to redeem itself in the final quarter of this year. Provided the HDM market continues to grow at a respectable rate ("respectable" with all things considered given the format war), the BD/HD-DVD sales gap might finally reach that proverbial "tipping point" where Warner drops HD-DVD. I wonder what it would take. 70:30 BD sales advantage on Warner's own titles from Thanksgiving to New Years?

I agree with you it looks like that Warner will be making the final decision. If Warner goes Blu-ray exclusive the "format war" will be over within 6 months. If not earlier.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by Blu As Hell

I agree with you it looks like that Warner will be making the final decision. If Warner goes Blu-ray exclusive the "format war" will be over within 6 months. If not earlier.

I agree.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by Blu As Hell

I agree with you it looks like that Warner will be making the final decision. If Warner goes Blu-ray exclusive the "format war" will be over within 6 months. If not earlier.

If things are as we say and it does come down to Warner, the criteria for the "war" ending have shifted subtly. WB have a perspective different from the retailer or general consumer. Their own self-interest as a content provider would suggest that they look in the first instance to the sales of their own titles: they would want to see which format is the better fit with their own portfolio of content. From this they might try to extrapolate sales of upcoming home video releases and maybe even properties in development. Next (presumably) they would look at BD vs HD-DVD disc sales more generally, and hardware sales after that. Retailer support they would have to factor in somewhere in the list of priorities. Then there are the "sweeteners".

The considerations which would incline Warner to drop HD-DVD, in their peculiar priority order for that studio, suddenly take on an unnatural significance if they plan to pick a side early next year.

[almy]

In a short while, Warners will be releasing 5 Kubrick films, individually and as a set, and they will be in both formats. If BluRay trounces HD in sales, the way it did with "300" and "The Departed" Warner's choice should be a lot easier.

[marzetta7]

As always, great commentary and level-minded thinking by Bill.

Bravo.

[Beta-guy]

I think he's right, though, would we all have been happy if Betamax AND VHS co-existed? that's mean we'd need a VCR that supported both format (costly) or 2 VCR one Beta the other VHS just to play the movies if the various studio's held to exclusives like they are today.

Another thing we have to look at is what are the terms that define what format will win? Blu-ray is selling roughly 2:1 ratio I've heard in Japan it's much higher, but the format war is still going on, what has to happen when all of the vast majority of studio's, retailers, and Consumers all agree the format war is over?

[WickyWoo]

Australia and Japan are at 90%+ Blu, Europe is falling fast thanks to PS3.

Wit hthe $399 PS3 you're going to see a huge amount of sales this Christmas, which means that much more Blu. Even if only 1 in 5 is buying discs, that's at least half a million new customers based on likely sales, and I'm being conservative.

[glenn22]

As usual Bill Hunt is the voice of reason in an increasingly hostile HD world.

He's right on the money about the dual formats. No one wants 2 formats for long. The content providers want to focus on one format for a lot of reasons. If they wait too long to go exclusive then they hurt the customer as more and more products in the losing format will be sold in the mean time. They have to make a decision before it affects more than just us early adopters. Warner has just recently stated that they are holding off on Total HD for the time being and are looking very closely at sales in Q4.... that says to me that they want to make a decision very soon. (like January 2008 or sooner)

[reiella]

Originally Posted by Beta-guy

I think he's right, though, would we all have been happy if Betamax AND VHS co-existed? that's mean we'd need a VCR that supported both format (costly) or 2 VCR one Beta the other VHS just to play the movies if the various studio's held to exclusives like they are today.

Another thing we have to look at is what are the terms that define what format will win? Blu-ray is selling roughly 2:1 ratio I've heard in Japan it's much higher, but the format war is still going on, what has to happen when all of the vast majority of studio's, retailers, and Consumers all agree the format war is over?

And don't forget with DVD. We would have had a VHS/Beta/DVD deck.

And now, the DVD deck could even be replaced with a BD/HD-DVD combo deck.

Erm.. wait.

Originally Posted by Esox50

If one is to assume that WB is the more desirable studio to have on your side when comparing Paramount/DW vs WB, then it is also reasonable to figure that the HD DVD camp went after WB first.

Shortly after the Paramount news, Nickerson "resigns".

I would challenge HD DVD'ers to find ONE piece of positive information strictly related to WBs OWN RECENT actions that would point to them going HD DVD exclusive. It's simple, there isn't any (information)...

I can do it, as a BD fan.

They're repressing [I assume they need to repress isntead of just rip off the dvd layer :P] all of their HD-DVD discs -and- lowering the price point.

And while not necessarily 'good' news, the status quo news of the lack of better BD utilization on [some] upcoming titles, while maintaining the HDi interactive advantages on their HD-DVD counterpart.

Personally, I ascribe to a wait and see idea . I was so looking forward to Transformers on Blu, but now, well I need to be cynical .

Originally Posted by Terjyn

So you have no real problem with what Paramount did? You can not have it both ways, where Paramount is backstabbing you yet Warner wouldn't be backstabbing by doing the same in reverse.

Well, presumably, because we're BD biased, we'd be far more likly to believe any stories that came out explaining why they went BD exclusive. Much as the reasons have been cited here already. Ie, the preception that Paramount jumped from the winning ship to the sinking ship, while Warner would be jumping from the sinking ship to the winning ship.

Now, further fun bit though.

The nature of the break. IE, would warner recall disks that had already been shipped to retailers for Day and Date release. That is more, my personal gripe with it [well that and disappointment]. Just all in the manner it's done.

We do know that BDA has offered Uni some nice deals/offers to go neutral. It's part of the unforunate nature of the business. Further, the spin on the decision is also part of business. So regardless, we'll get lied to, or at least potentially lied to.

[Anthony P]

So you have no real problem with what Paramount did? You can not have it both ways, where Paramount is backstabbing you yet Warner wouldn't be backstabbing by doing the same in reverse.

not at all. Let's say you were standing on the side of the street and someone pushes you, is that a good or a bad thing? If someone pushed you into an oncoming car then it is a bad thing, if they see a car coming towards you and push you out of the way then it is a good thing.

If Paramount receives a massive payout and says I don't care what consumers want, I want my $$$ and screw everyone else it is a bad thing. If Warner looks at sales and says consumers have massively bought more BD players, they have massively bought more BD movies, the consumers don't want two formats and want this over and we side with our consumers, then that is a good thing.

[Aquos]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

not at all. Let's say you were standing on the side of the street and someone pushes you, is that a good or a bad thing? If someone pushed you into an oncoming car then it is a bad thing, if they see a car coming towards you and push you out of the way then it is a good thing.

If Paramount receives a massive payout and says I don't care what consumers want, I want my $$$ and screw everyone else it is a bad thing. If Warner looks at sales and says consumers have massively bought more BD players, they have massively bought more BD movies, the consumers don't want two formats and want this over and we side with our consumers, then that is a good thing.

I thought there was a bidding war going on recently for Warner. Isn't that why they announced they're staying neutral? I think they would insist on getting paid for going exclusive to either side.

[WickyWoo]

As usual they all stream out of the woodwork screaming bias and how he is engaging in "the very partisanship you're decrying"

Frankly every day I'm more and more certain that if Toshiba refuses to end it, Warner will end it for them. Total HD is a TotalBust, both in companies to sell it to and in yields, Warner knows as well as everyone else does that as Bill said, there is a time limit to get momentum before it becomes another LaserDisc.

If HD doesn't show signs of recovery, and instead sinks further as is highly likely, I believe Warner will dump it, especially since Nickerson is gone, and Paramount undoubtedly has some kind of out clause on their contract. If Warner falls and if the excellent rumors are true that Uni is eyeing neutrality (their people have been spotted at Panasonic's facility apparently), I expect that bad Xmas sales will be the excuse everyone needs to jump ship.

[patrick99]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

Frankly every day I'm more and more certain that if Toshiba refuses to end it, Warner will end it for them. Total HD is a TotalBust, both in companies to sell it to and in yields, Warner knows as well as everyone else does that as Bill said, there is a time limit to get momentum before it becomes another LaserDisc.

If HD doesn't show signs of recovery, and instead sinks further as is highly likely, I believe Warner will dump it, especially since Nickerson is gone, and Paramount undoubtedly has some kind of out clause on their contract. If Warner falls and if the excellent rumors are true that Uni is eyeing neutrality (their people have been spotted at Panasonic's facility apparently), I expect that bad Xmas sales will be the excuse everyone needs to jump ship.

I certainly hope you're right. Sounds like a very plausible scenario.