Bill Hunt's latest on the format war (September 12)

[radagast]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

As usual they all stream out of the woodwork screaming bias and how he is engaging in "the very partisanship you're decrying"

Frankly every day I'm more and more certain that if Toshiba refuses to end it, Warner will end it for them.

I agree completely. If Warner drops hd-dvd, it WILL be the end of it.

[radagast]

Originally Posted by GaS

Warner putting TotalHD on hold is a big time sign. They are going to go exclusive with someone in the near future just to try to end the war. The question is whom will it be?

The answer is obvious to anyone who has been paying attention.

[kaliraver]

If Blu-Ray has a very strong video sales of 2:1 or a 80/20 ratio. You can call this war over and WB will become Blu-Ray exclusive. Too many things are hinting that they are going to be going BD exclusive. Their presence at IFA with the BDA I think was a strong indication and the fact that they also didn't show up for HD-DVD promotional group at IFA. Sales is what Warner wants (& is all about) they just care about their profit and want to make their shareholders happy. Going Blu-Ray exclusive only makes since if they want to increase their unit sales go up since HD-DVD will be dead without WB. They can't survive without WB!

[WickyWoo]

Originally Posted by radagast

The answer is obvious to anyone who has been paying attention.

The fact they didn't take the check at the same time as Paramount should be very telling

[ps3andlovinit]

Originally Posted by radagast

I agree completely. If Warner drops hd-dvd, it WILL be the end of it.

It would.. but personally it's not something I expect to happen.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

The fact they didn't take the check at the same time as Paramount should be very telling

And firing their pro-HD DVD head of HDM should have given it up completely.

Unfortunately pretty much all HD DVD fans actually bought HDD's story that Nickerson was a neutral fanboy.

[spam.curitiba]

Well i think BD woule be hurting really bad if they lose WB....just look at your blu-ray collection and see how many are WB....Sony, Disney would have to crank out every damn movie they had to have a chance to survive

[glenn22]

Originally Posted by spam.curitiba

Well i think BD woule be hurting really bad if they lose WB....just look at your blu-ray collection and see how many are WB....Sony, Disney would have to crank out every damn movie they had to have a chance to survive

Blu-ray will not lose WB any time soon. If anyone should be worried about losing WB it's the HD-DVD camp as Warner made it clear they are looking at sales as their main decision making factor... and their execs are well aware of the 2:1 sales ratio.

[patrick99]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

And firing their pro-HD DVD head of HDM should have given it up completely.

With the news coming out three days after the Paramount news. Could the connection be any clearer?

[caliminius]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

The fact they didn't take the check at the same time as Paramount should be very telling

I also think another subtle sign is their dropping of the DVD/HD-DVD combo discs. The vast majority of those combo discs are being reissued over the next month or so as HD-DVD only discs. I understand that part of this is based on the high failure rates of these discs to play, but I think another part is that it also lowers the consumer price of these discs to the same level as Blu-Ray. And by re-releasing them before Christmas, Warner is giving HD-DVD one last chance to show significant sales (now with a more level playing field) before deciding whether to ditch HD-DVD or not.

[caliminius]

Originally Posted by spam.curitiba

Well i think BD woule be hurting really bad if they lose WB....just look at your blu-ray collection and see how many are WB....Sony, Disney would have to crank out every damn movie they had to have a chance to survive

Right now, my Blu-Ray collection is Sony heavy (8 out of 18), with Fox, Disney and Warner tied for second with 3 each followed by Paramount's 1. But my DVD collection is Warner (and Fox) heavy.

[jadedeath]

Originally Posted by glenn22

Warner made it clear that it will depend entirely on sales and a vast mojority of sales. (meaning more of a gap than 2:1)

I see that easily happening by the end of the year.

With the way Blu-Ray player sales have been going lately, and the way that PS3 sales are sticking above the 150k in North America Monthly margin heading into the holidays.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, if the sales ratio isn't 3-1 {or higher} by the end of the year I'll eat my hat.

Logan

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

And firing their pro-HD DVD head of HDM should have given it up completely.

Unfortunately pretty much all HD DVD fans actually bought HDD's story that Nickerson was a neutral fanboy.

If one is to assume that WB is the more desirable studio to have on your side when comparing Paramount/DW vs WB, then it is also reasonable to figure that the HD DVD camp went after WB first.

Shortly after the Paramount news, Nickerson "resigns".

I would challenge HD DVD'ers to find ONE piece of positive information strictly related to WBs OWN RECENT actions that would point to them going HD DVD exclusive. It's simple, there isn't any (information)...

[ZMan]

Excellently stated by Bill Hunt...the voice of reason. I agree with ReduxInflux, all Studio Execs should read this!

[talbers23]

very good article. Ive been thinking about going neutral for the last month or so but have been holding off. After reading this article there is no way I will ever go neutral. Theres been more and more buzz about Universal supporting both formats and it does feel like WB is giving HD DVD one last chance to prove itself as a format which doesn't say much about the format.

Another thing I was thinking off of that is that if WB is giving HD DVD one last chance with this, I believe they said they would let the consumer decide this 4th quarter, HD DVD will get blown away. With the WB movies that are HD DVD exclusive now coming to blu-ray, the sales numbers will be staggering. Just think of all the titles they have already sold and blu is still ahead. Ill be getting 12 of the movies that are now HD DVD exclusive when they come to Blu-ray and others will get more.

This holiday season could end the format war, or at least give studios like Universal a really really good reason to support blu-ray as well.

[CAB]

I doubt Warner would go exclusive Blu. Cutting off all the current HD DVD owners would be terrible for the industry. I'd expect to see Warner building on the features offered by Blu like higher bitrate video, audio, along with 1.1 and 2.0 when they are available instead of the practice of cloning the HD-DVD VC1 content. Eventually, because of lower volume, content would cost more on HD DVD than Blu.

Warner does seem a bit more consumer conscious of late. Didn't an insider recently state that we'd soon see Warner differentiating the Blu and HD DVD content?

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by CAB

I doubt Warner would go exclusive Blu. Cutting off all the current HD DVD owners would be terrible for the industry. I'd expect to see Warner building on the features offered by Blu like higher bitrate video, audio, along with 1.1 and 2.0 when they are available instead of the practice of cloning the HD-DVD VC1 content. Eventually, because of lower volume, content would cost more on HD DVD than Blu.

Warner does seem a bit more consumer conscious of late. Didn't an insider recently state that we'd soon see Warner differentiating the Blu and HD DVD content?

Yeah, me and P-Man.

Return to the House on the Haunted Hill will be available on both formats, but on Blu it will have seamless branching but it won't on red.

[tron3]

I usually try to listen to everyone's opinion to help broaden my own concept of what is actually true. In general, the numbers don't lie, but people do.

I read that entire article by Bill Hunt and he has shown me more in that one article than I could learn in a month of sifting through the FUD mucking we see.

Warner is "sitting on the fence" with both legs dangling in the BD camp. The more Warner movies we buy, the more we can coax them to jump in. I have new found respect for Warner to not take the pay off and actually do business right for the sake of their image and customers.

I disagree on one minor detail. If Warner jumps the HD-DVD ship, the war will be technically over, but major casualties. For one thing, Paramount is still under an 18 month contract. Unless Toshiba yields and lets them buy out of the remainder contract, we still aren't going to see Transformers and other films for about another 18 months.

Warner going exclusive BD would be a major nuke on Toshiba which is already war torn. I'm sure Toshiba is still trying to get their attention. They may already see the writing on the wall. But for craps sake, don't commit finanical suicide and throw good money after bad.

You fight a good fight Toshiba. I commed you on making a product that not only yielded quality but built upon DVD technology to keep costs low. But even PC makers left behind ISA, EISA, VESA, and other bus technologies so progress can be made. Even PCI will be history in a few more years. Your hearts were in the right place, Toshiba, but the consumers are at your throats now. Don't wait for the second nuke to get dropped. Get out while you still have the finances to develop blu-ray and make HUGE profits in a world which is largely becoming blu.

[CAB]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

Yeah, me and P-Man.

Return to the House on the Haunted Hill will be available on both formats, but on Blu it will have seamless branching but it won't on red.

Do you agree that a Neutral studio going exclusive is bad for the consumer and the HDM industry? I hate that Paramount went to HD DVD but I hate that they shafted the consumer a whole lot more.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by CAB

Do you agree that a Neutral studio going exclusive is bad for the consumer and the HDM industry? I hate that Paramount went to HD DVD but I hate that the shafted the consumer a whole lot more.

I think it depends on the circumstances, if it was from a payoff then, no I don't think it is a good idea. Very anti-consumer and anti-competitive.

If it is based on technical merit, then I see no reason to get upset. If one release is inferior for technical reasons like the ones you outline above then people will complain, and to stop this you may have to stop releasing on one format.