Predictions - Blu-ray wins war late January 2010

[sphdle1]

Anyone have a prediction on this war?

My prediction is based on the timing of Paramount getting out of their pay off deal, and starting to release BDs like mad, in a year and a half's time. By then I think the ratio will be over 3:1 in favor of Blu, at least in North America, but close to 10:1 in Europe and other moreso in Japan.
After the Christmas season of 2009, the ratio will go past 4:1, Universal will start making both, and by late January, all other studios will go exclusively BD, as the market share of high definition will have increased 10 fold from what it is now, so there will be more money at stake for studios in terms of Profit & Loss.

Am I way off, or just slightly? What's your prediction on the ending of the war?

[SNAP]

I think it's done by mid 2009 based on what the sales numbers are now. If Toshiba is losing now they'll stop throwing $$$ at it and dump it fast.

Originally Posted by sphdle1

Anyone have a prediction on this war?

My prediction is based on the timing of Paramount getting out of their pay off deal, and starting to release BDs like mad, in a year and a half's time. By then I think the ratio will be over 3:1 in favor of Blu, at least in North America, but close to 10:1 in Europe and other moreso in Japan.
After the Christmas season of 2009, the ratio will go past 4:1, Universal will start making both, and by late January, all other studios will go exclusively BD, as the market share of high definition will have increased 10 fold from what it is now, so there will be more money at stake for studios in terms of Profit & Loss.

Am I way off, or just slightly? What's your prediction on the ending of the war?

[HK-48]

I think it will be a bit eariler than that because Paramount's deal only lasts the next two Holiday Seasons or 18 months (Since Day One in August) so Paramount will go neutral again or Blu-Ray exclusive in Early 2009. And I bet by then Warner will have gone Blu-Ray exclusive. Harry Potter will help us hopefully.

[nails]

I don't know about you, but I'm going to make sure all my local friends and co-workers know EXACTLY how to import a blu-ray disk from Japan. There will be no wait for HD-DVD only movies

[ESUNintel]

I have a feeling that Blu-ray will win the format war.
...so I think it WILL win, just not sure when.

My guess will be that after this holiday season, Blu will gain more support and HD-DVD will start going downhill (not like they haven't been). I would assume that by late 2008 it will be the format of choice, and I wouldn't be surprised if by then (or when ever Vista SP2 comes out), it will even be supported by Microsoft in Windows Media Center.

...no real facts on that, just what I think

[monkyman]

I think it is going to be up to retailers. Blockbuster has made their decision, as has Mijer, Target is swaying to Blu. If BB, CC or even Walmart go BD exclusive it won't leave consumers much choice.

[sphdle1]

Good to see that the porn industry is not going to decide it this time, and that us the consumer gets to decide. Power to the people!

[nails]

Originally Posted by monkyman

I think it is going to be up to retailers. Blockbuster has made their decision, as has Mijer, Target is swaying to Blu. If BB, CC or even Walmart go BD exclusive it won't leave consumers much choice.

Most best buy stores already have blu-ray faced with 6 sections, and HD-DVD wrapped around the back.. I'm sure this was paid for by sony, but these are still important key steps in winning a war. I think HD-DVD is going to be around a bit longer mostly because of transformers. If transformers released on both then this would go faster. Also all of the HD-DVD fanboys who are foaming at the mouth and posting youtubes on how "(swear word)(swear word)(swear word) awsome" it is (because swear words are what makes a format great). They will waver poor helpless consumers into choosing the wrong format.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by sphdle1

Anyone have a prediction on this war?

My prediction is based on the timing of Paramount getting out of their pay off deal, and starting to release BDs like mad, in a year and a half's time. By then I think the ratio will be over 3:1 in favor of Blu, at least in North America, but close to 10:1 in Europe and other moreso in Japan.
After the Christmas season of 2009, the ratio will go past 4:1, Universal will start making both, and by late January, all other studios will go exclusively BD, as the market share of high definition will have increased 10 fold from what it is now, so there will be more money at stake for studios in terms of Profit & Loss.

Am I way off, or just slightly? What's your prediction on the ending of the war?

You are either way off or this format will die a slow death. There is no way consumers will have the attention span that lasts past 09. Heck I honestly feels if it's not wraped up next year it's getting to that point customers will lose intrest. It's one reason why I think Warner is going to exclusive with Bluray early next year and why I feel Universal is going to at the very least go format neutral. At the end of next year if Universal isn't exclusive with Bluray (which leaves only Paramount releasing HD) the format is going to be seriously hurt.

Customers are already confused and I'm only talking from a rentailers point of view. When my managers are having a hard time grasping what is going on (no matter how much I try to explain them) the customers are no doubt frustrated and very wary about getting into this new format with it being so confusing. Either Warner and Universal mans up and saves the highdef format or it dies a slow death over the next 3 years.

[Lord_Stewie]

I do know for a fact that MS, and it is a maybe are looking to release the new Xbox 360 with a built in HDDVD drive in late 2009 early 2010. so I would say the war has to be over for bluray being the champ soon. Hopefully, sometime around 2009 before it becomes official.

http://www.dvdtown.com/news/microsof...in-hd-dvd/4838