LOL @ Pachter: No New Game Consoles Until 2013, If Ever

[bampot]

Originally Posted by ThePhantomOak

There is no way that Sony sticks to this idea of the PS3 lasting that long as the primary console.

It might be built for 10 years, but PS4 will come out either before or at the same time as the rest of the next generation. Unless they wants to lose another round.

Not sure. The graphics question etc is becoming obsolete. They wont be the difference makers from now on. Innovation will win the day in software and hardware terms. Sony hasnt lost this round yet i feel, farout but we'l see.

And Pachter going on about if there's a new console generation is i'm sure going on about onlive.

[xtop]

Originally Posted by ThePhantomOak

To add to your point...

New PC games demand upgrades almost continuously. A Gaming PC will last a year or two at best.

Consoles have what they have. I buy it, and can use it until they stop making games for it...

Try using a PC from 5 years ago to play the top games out now... aint gonna happen. My PS3 will still be hucking great games in 3 years.

yet all you need to play those games is a video card that costs less than 100 dollars

[icyteddy]

Originally Posted by funsocaltiger

I have no idea where you get your information from. Failure rate for PS3 is like 2% or less.

I get the information here at blu ray forum from other members. And I hope your information for the failure rate is accurate because I intend to keep my PS3 for as long as I can.

[xtop]

Originally Posted by icyteddy

I get the information here at blu ray forum from other members. And I hope your information for the failure rate is accurate because I intend to keep my PS3 for as long as I can.

less than 2% is correct.

[bampot]

Originally Posted by xtop

huh?

Before this generation the leap in graphics every gen was HUGE and the average consumer went wow as the leap in graphics was startling to the eye. Now it's whether there's enouth AA, textures are bad all that mundane stuff which the mainstream consumer wouldnt even notice.

[xtop]

Originally Posted by bampot

Before this generation the leap in graphics every gen was HUGE and the average consumer went wow as the leap in graphics was startling to the eye. Now it's whether there's enouth AA, textures are bad all that mundane stuff which the mainstream consumer wouldnt even notice.

oh i gotcha. well come 2013..everyone is going to notice. patcher is an idiot anyways, so i dont' know what there's to argue about haha

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by xtop

oh i gotcha. well come 2013..everyone is going to notice. patcher is an idiot anyways, so i dont' know what there's to argue about haha

That's the key.

This whole thread is based on an idiot's perspective of the gaming industry. Hell, I have a better record than Pachter on such matters!

Anyway, I remember the same talk when PS2 came out, people saying that there would be no need for PS3, but here we are. I expect PS4 will come in 2011/12 depending on which region you live in. Something tells me Sony will go back to their old November/March/November release schedule for Japan/NA/PAL and get the console out as early as possible in Japan.

[ThePhantomOak]

Originally Posted by xtop

yet all you need to play those games is a video card that costs less than 100 dollars

+installation (even if it is just your own time).

Vs $0 in upgrades and no time working on electronics? EVER?

Not much of a fight PC is putting up, IMO.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by bampot

Pachter makes alot of sense. The technological jumps every console gen now will no longer be dealmakers. And with the huge cost of games the big publishers will definately want to milk it for aslong as possible. From now on as Nintendo proved graphics wont be the difference maker. Also with the ps3 every year from now on Blu Ray will become more influential for PS3 buyers as HD becomes more widespread and prices come down.

I don't think they did. Not at all, we will see at the end of the generation in 5 years which strategy worked best, but as of now I don't believe Nintendo have proved anything.

If the buyers of Wii Fit and Wii Play are to become serious gamers (who actually buy software that doesn't have the word Wii or Sport in it) Nintendo need to go for another of their "paradigm shifts", and as we can see in Japan, they haven't been able to do that. Their current audience on the Wii has all but stopped buying games, and major third parties don't know how to market to the new audience. While I agree that the GCN audience was too rooted in the hardcore, the Wii has far too many casuals, even the DS has got more core gamers who buy DQ/FF remakes.

Take a look, Lair a really crap game by all accounts has shipped over 500k, while Mad World on the Wii will never get to 500k it has barely hit 100k so far. Both were pretty well hyped in the hardcore circles, but the Wii game can't approach the sales of a PS3 game. Obviously the opposite is true as well, the Wii can sell casual games much better than any other console, but only crazy folk rely on the casual crowd for long-term revenue...

It basically boils down to one golden rule: never chase the casual crowd too early. Nintendo have broken it this time around to great short-term success, but then again, Sony stuck to the rules for PS/PS2 and those were pretty successful consoles too. I believe Sony will have the same sort of success with PS3, maybe not the 140m that PS2 shipped, but definitely above 100m by the end of the gen. The Wii will get there too, but it will be the manner in which each reaches the 100m mark that will define the success of each console. It is my belief that early success will go to the Wii as it is right now, but the later success (below $199 pricing) will all go to the PS3 as the casual/core gamers (i.e. my gf) start to purchase systems. These people have already purchased the Wii and they are all sitting in corners gathering dust while the PS2 still gets used for the odd game of Singstar...

[blu-raay]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

Oh please. You don't hear about the people who's consoles keep working because there's no need to mention it...my launch 60 Gig has had zero issues, but I have no reason to come on here and post about it.

Problem Fixed. https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=97866

[mewantyblu]

my bet is microsoft comes out with the 360 successor by 2011 , but who knows

[chnandler_bong]

Originally Posted by xtop

less than 2% is correct.

Does that failure rate take into account PS3s that have failed more than once? I've loved my PS3 in the past, smirked a little when I had to shell out $150+tax less than a month out of my warranty, and am still scowling at the fact that it failed again less than 6 months after I got it back. It's not an issue of shelling out more cash (well it kinda is), or the fact that I didn't get an extended warranty and am being punished for it, but the fact it has failed me twice, expensively, in less than two years. I'm just glad that I have another BD player because that means I can live that much longer without having to shell out another $150+tax to be able to watch my stories...

[Terjyn]

Failures happen. The question is whether they are excessive, and I've seen no evidence that the PS3 failure rate is excessive. The occasional thread pops up here about it but those threads are so rare that I certainly don't see evidence of an abnormal failure rate.

Originally Posted by bampot

Now it's whether there's enouth AA, textures are bad all that mundane stuff which the mainstream consumer wouldnt even notice.

I believe the focus next gen will be solid 1080p/60, so there is one pretty obvious console round yet to come.

[DonRSD]

ive always said there will be a point that its not worth it to upgrade to a new console.

i believe the NEXT generation is that limit.

how much better can it get to WARRANT a purchase!?

i just bought my ps3 and i dont want to buy another one anytime soon.

xbox needs to make a system 1st as the 360 is all but finished. you wont see anything better looking from the 360 than what it is today.

ps3 hasnt even tapped 60% of its power so thats a good thing.

if the ps3 STILL costs $400......how much would a new xbox with blu ray AND better tech cost today?

xbox cant release a system for 5 years, they are strapped with a price point......so is ps3.

but in my estimation.....1 more system until we reach the peak of how good things will look to warrant upgrades of newer systems

[Stephie_is_a_dork]

Do we really need new threads every time Pachter says something ridiculous? Isn't he the same guy who said GTAIV would fail and we'd see a PS3 price drop before Christmas...and then April when that didn't happen? Even most Blu-ray.com members knew the price drop wasn't gonna happen last month.

I could make more accurate predictions with a fair amount of common sense and the occasional coin toss. Pachter being proven wrong = just another day. If he ever made a specific prediction that was proven right, THAT would be newsworthy. Turn this into a "Pachter is an idiot Megathread" and call it a day.

How much is Wedbush paying him to "predict" while we're only 2-3 into this generation, experiencing a recession and haven't come close to market saturation, that we won't get another console just yet. Seriously, how much?

[Seeking_Alpha]

Originally Posted by ThePhantomOak

To add to your point...

New PC games demand upgrades almost continuously. A Gaming PC will last a year or two at best.

Consoles have what they have. I buy it, and can use it until they stop making games for it...

Try using a PC from 5 years ago to play the top games out now... aint gonna happen. My PS3 will still be hucking great games in 3 years.

PC actually have generations too. If you have a 6800 GT then you can play Direct X 9 games forever, much like your PS3 can play PS3 games forever. When PS4 comes, you'll have to buy. When Direct X 10 games come, you'll have to buy.

Of course PCs have more backward compatibility.

[Shin-Ra]

There's a Vista joke to be told somewhere in all that.

[PA_Kid]

Please.... The next generation will get unveiled when one of the companies feel that their current system is not able to keep up with the competitors.

As soon as Sony, Wii, or MS feel that their system has been cleanly surpassed (defeated?) by the other on a sales/consumer level then we'll be hearing about the next gen system as a means to reinvent the rules/playing field.

Each generation has always been an effect reset button to the console wars. I bet that the fact that MS and Sony are in a dogfight and Nintendo dominated in a non-traditional strategy is the main reason we haven't heard anything solid yet. Each group is able to convince themselves that even if they aren't first, they are still a serious competitor.

Now they day that one of those groups (say MS) starts believing that their system can't effectively "keep up", you better believe they will start looking at a new system.

The only way this "if ever" thing could even remotely happen was if one company started the next generation, the other two held firm, and the new system instantly tanked. Even then it would most likely only be a delay. (IMHO of course)

[The Don]

I believe that the next XBOX console will be revealed at E3 this year....and slated for Fall/Winter 2010....that would make the 360 on the market for a full year longer than the original XBOX....

...and then Wii2 around 2011 along with the PS4 in 2012....

[DezNutz]

No way the next Playstation will be 2 years behind the next xbox... I would be suprised if it was over 6 months difference..