More HD DVD vs BD back and forth

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by bruceames

I don't know how much, if any, "bribe calls" have been made and accepted to keep the studios exclusive (on both sides). But eventually, if HD DVD keeps selling a decent amount of players (as they have been doing so far this year), they will reach an ownership base too large for any amount of bribe money to work (and the studios will all go nuetral except Sony). The question becomes, will the BD content advantage be too great and hinder HD DVD player sales to the point where they never get to critical mass? If Universal stays HD DVD exclusive all this year, that alone will sell a lot of players. Porn will sell players (although how many is highly debatable). Price will sell players and so will quality.

The 'bribe' on the BD side comes in the form of disc subsidies from Sony/MEI, which I imagine is pretty significant. On the HD DVD side it is a bit more complicated as there can't be too direct a link between MS and Universal as that would be cause for anti-trust court filings, Toshiba are probably used as an intermediary, i.e. MS gave Toshiba the Zune contract, Toshiba spends money getting Uni to use their new type of filming process on KK.

The only problem is if the BDA marketing succeeds in convincing potential buyers that a "Blu-ray victory is inevitable", and thus people who would have bought an HD DVD player, now decide not to. I just hope these buyers look at all the facts presented to them from both sides, and make as educated a decision as possible, and not go by hype alone.

The problem with that is, the BDA are very good at marketing and the HD DVD PRG aren't. So what if the BDA won through superior marketing, it happens all of the time, why do you buy Coke ahead of Pepsi, or Hershey's ahead of other chocolate brands, it is all to do with marketing.

A win is a win, regardless of the shape or form it comes in.

[1234abcd]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

The 'bribe' on the BD side comes in the form of disc subsidies from Sony/MEI, which I imagine is pretty significant. On the HD DVD side it is a bit more complicated as there can't be too direct a link between MS and Universal as that would be cause for anti-trust court filings, Toshiba are probably used as an intermediary, i.e. MS gave Toshiba the Zune contract, Toshiba spends money getting Uni to use their new type of filming process on KK..

Thanks for the info. Like I said, I came here to learn.

The problem with that is, the BDA are very good at marketing and the HD DVD PRG aren't. So what if the BDA won through superior marketing, it happens all of the time, why do you buy Coke ahead of Pepsi, or Hershey's ahead of other chocolate brands, it is all to do with marketing.

A win is a win, regardless of the shape or form it comes in.

Very true, I guess we'll just see how effective this "inevitable victory" marketing approach turns out to be. Very bold, I must say, but not without risks.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Sure, I want more action, but it's only been a little over a month since CES, and I'm not going to give up on HD DVD that easily. Things were pretty rough for BD last summer but many BD fans held firm and some didn't. Same is happening here. I can't control what my fellow supporters decide to do and I just hope that even though they buy a BD player, that they continue to monetarily support HD DVD is much as possible.

I see what you're getting at. But, the reason BD supporters (for the most part) stayed fast was because of what they saw happening in the future:

- The PS/3 would arrive and accidently (for many buyers) introduce millions of Blu-ray players into peoples' homes. It has.

- The PS/3 being the "real" launch of BD would result in a ramp up by the BD studios in quantity AND quality of the offerings. It has.

- The early issues we saw with BD encodings would be worked out and BD50 would become not "science fiction". It has.

What is it that gives you the same confidence about HD DVD?

- TL51? Seems that is an admission that BD had it right all along.

- 100 titles from Universal? Sure, some very nice catalog titles. But, little that people don't already have on DVD. And when the Toshiba decks do such a great job with those DVDs, where is the incentive to rush out and replace those catalog titles?

- Cheap Chinese players? Well, unless you're waiting to buy something, banking on other people running out in PS/3 numbers and paying $400 for a questionable Chinese product when they aren't rushing to pay $500 for a name brand, is putting a heck of a lot of faith into the equation.

Frankly, I've yet to see an HD DVD player that is of the calibre you'd think is required for early adopters let alone more general ones. That means a player that doesn't skip or freeze up, and isn't a mess of re-encoding problems with the audio (goodness knows how anyone serious puts up with that?!).

Originally Posted by bruceames

I don't know how much, if any, "bribe calls" have been made and accepted to keep the studios exclusive (on both sides). But eventually, if HD DVD keeps selling a decent amount of players (as they have been doing so far this year), they will reach an ownership base too large for any amount of bribe money to work (and the studios will all go nuetral except Sony).

That drives me crazy. There is always this attitude that BD must be bribing while HD DVD is this little angel. How could Universal remain so steadfastly pro-HD DVD with no IP interest in DVD or HD DVD whatsoever? You don't suppose encoding assistance and promotion money from Microsoft isn't involved there?!

Incidently, where are the numbers to back up this oft-repeated contention that HD DVD players are selling well? We have people simultaneously claiming shortages AND a price war, which goes completely against the logic of a free-market supply and demand economy.

Originally Posted by bruceames

The question becomes, will the BD content advantage be too great and hinder HD DVD player sales to the point where they never get to critical mass? If Universal stays HD DVD exclusive all this year, that alone will sell a lot of players. Porn will sell players (although how many is highly debatable). Price will sell players and so will quality.

The only problem is if the BDA marketing succeeds in convincing potential buyers that a "Blu-ray victory is inevitable", and thus people who would have bought an HD DVD player, now decide not to. I just hope these buyers look at all the facts presented to them from both sides, and make as educated a decision as possible, and not go by hype alone.

The critical problem with content I see is that Universal Studios has had a very bad last few years at the box office. They finished sixth among the big six in 2006 with a terrible 8.9%. As such, they aren't generating the exciting string of new releases that are the life blood of format sales, and definitely the definitive measure made by general consumers when choosing whether to buy into a format.

The catalog is the gravy. The new releases are the bread and butter.

And it is this lack of killer new releases that allows BD folk to sit back and wait for Universal.

Gary

[1234abcd]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

That drives me crazy. There is always this attitude that BD must be bribing while HD DVD is this little angel. How could Universal remain so steadfastly pro-HD DVD with no IP interest in DVD or HD DVD whatsoever? You don't suppose encoding assistance and promotion money from Microsoft isn't involved there?!

I never said that and was just responding to someone else anyway. I think Max cleared it up anyway about what assistence the studios may getting in return for their support.

Incidently, where are the numbers to back up this oft-repeated contention that HD DVD players are selling well? We have people simultaneously claiming shortages AND a price war, which goes completely against the logic of a free-market supply and demand economy.

They're selling well on Amazon at least. You will give me that?

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by bruceames

They're selling well on Amazon at least. You will give me that?

They are in the top 10 rankings of DVD players on Amazon.com. I will give you THAT. We don't have any idea what those rankings actually mean in terms of real sales.

#7, #8, and #10 are DVD recorders. Think those are selling in big quantities, as in extrapolated to 100K sales a month that the A2 must make to hit Fuji-san's 1.2 million (just for Toshiba decks) projection for this year?

How many players sales does it take to be #6? If we mixed in PS/3 sales (at those rare moments it is actually in stock) where would the PS/3 be in that list?

We need objective sales data. The Amazon disc rankings versus the actual disc numbers we are hearing is ample evidence that Amazon rankings are a very poor measure of absolutes. All you can see are relative numbers and trends.

Also, remember a major complaint the HD DVD crowd has is that the BB and CC are doing a lousy job making HD DVD players available in the B&M. That is not the case with the BD players. So, why would people risk buying a BD deck off Amazon.com?

www.jandr.com: $499 for Samsung BDP1000. J&R are pretty big downtown Mahattan retailer.

Gary

[helli3yte]

i guess ill put forth my 2 cents. from all the research ive done, ive thought about it long and hard. now since your a suporter of hd give me your views on on flippers "aka hd one side , dvd other side" and THD disks.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by helli3yte

i guess ill put forth my 2 cents. from all the research ive done, ive thought about it long and hard. now since your a suporter of hd give me your views on on flippers "aka hd one side , dvd other side" and THD disks.

I could be really crazy , but I think he's for them. That's my wild guess from reading stuff like:

http://forum.hd-dvd.com/showthread.php?p=1686#post1686

post 7

Originally Posted by bruceames

Combo discs are really targeted at the consumers who does not yet have an HD DVD player (or even an HDTV) but wishes to buy a "future-proof" movie. For a few dollars more, he/she can watch the SD version now and the HD version later. Portability is also important, and so is eventually having both versions for sale in the same packaging, so that stores and rental places don't have to stock two versions of every movie. DVD will be around for a long time to come, and HD DVD wants to coexist in a less obtrusive manner, so the combo kind of puts them together to form a team, if you will.

Most combos will sell for $34.95, which at Amazon means $23.95, which is still $5.00 less than Fox or Lionsgate movies.

http://forum.hd-dvd.com/showthread.php?p=1671#post1671

post 4

Originally Posted by bruceames

Yeah, it seems that many have a real mental thing about the combos. If Universal just announced a $5.00 hike in their disc prices, these people would not be nearly so upset. I tell them "just pretend it's not a combo, but rather a movie that costs $5.00 more, and it won't bug you so much." It doesn't work, and you can just feel the gusts caused by the four letter words spinning around in their brain.

But I believe that the combo is the way to go, and the 90% commitment means that Universal isn't messing around, as that sends a strong message that they have zero thoughts of going Blu. That to me means a lot, so I will support the combo by buying all I can afford of those movies that I want (and Netflix the rest if necessary).

I'm sure Universal will try a few day and date releases with only the combo, and in the short term, this is the real advantage: to flood the market with Universal HD DVDs. I'm sure just the thought gives the Blu-ray folks the ebee jeebies...and it should. Funny how you hear the BD fans criticizing the combos as if it were their own format! If they really felt the combo was not only harmless, but detrimental to HD DVD's chances, they would encourage its use by saying "I hope it comes out in combo" or "go combo" (or something)

Also, the 90% means volume, and volume means faster price drops. I bet by early next year the $5.00 (srp) upcharge will be gone (or nearly so, maybe 1 or 2 bucks more). I think Universal at that point should just drop the DVD format altogether and henceforth release only combos. Let's combo BD to death!

Yeah, let's "combo BD to death!" That's already been a winning strategy that's been working wonders for ya!

I think you can see from those two samplers that he's clearly for them. That'll save a bunch of retyping and repetition.

[1234abcd]

Well, I did say that in the HD DVD.com forum. I would not say that here.

But thanks for saving me the typing.

[JTK]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Well, I did say that in the HD DVD.com forum. I would not say that here.

But thanks for saving me the typing.

You're welcome.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by bruceames

Well, I did say that in the HD DVD.com forum. I would not say that here.

But thanks for saving me the typing.

There is a lot said about how "HD DVD" is THE name because people know what it means. Problem is, that is a load of crap. At my local BB right now is a shelf with the following:

Shelf #2: "Samsung HD DVD player" - Actually an upconverting "HDTV Ready" player

Shelf #3: Unmarked Toshiba A2

The consumer may know what HD means. And they do know what DVD means. But, the RETAILERS don't have a clue what "HD DVD" means, let alone the consumer.

If you were a studio faced with returns due to this mess, wouldn't you want to have some insurance against a person buying an HD DVD for their HDTV and DVD player, or their HD upscaling DVD player?

You now know why the HD DVD studios are so hot for the combos. It's risk management. Not market transition. Not value added. Simple bottom line bean counter crap.

Gary

[JTK]

http://www.highdefforum.com/showthre...837#post249837

'Nuff said.

[1234abcd]

That is a very pro HD DVD forum and that comment was not meant to be disrespectful of this forum as my comparison was that the Blu-ray fans there are not rubbing it in our faces like they could be doing if they wanted to (thus my reference to this one)

I was not here to troll, only to gain some perspective, but sure, I'll stay away if someone plans to track my posts throughout the internet. I use the same name, my real one, everywhere I go, so it should be easy to dig up bad stuff that I've said about Blu-ray...and even its supporters.

[Damon Payne]

Bah, stick around.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by bruceames

That is a very pro HD DVD forum and that comment was not meant to be disrespectful of this forum as my comparison was that the Blu-ray fans there are not rubbing it in our faces like they could be doing if they wanted to (thus my reference to this one)

This IS forum.blu-ray.com. Expecting balance here would be like expecting balance at a political party headquarters.

Originally Posted by bruceames

I was not here to troll, only to gain some perspective, but sure, I'll stay away if someone plans to track my posts throughout the internet. I use the same name, my real one, everywhere I go, so it should be easy to dig up bad stuff that I've said about Blu-ray...and even its supporters.

I hope you do stay. I also hope you realize any responses are in the spirit of debate, and not meant as any kind of personal attack.

I'm dialog_gvf everywhere. I'm easy to track too.

Gary

[Maximus]

Same here, find me as Maxpower1987 on pretty much all forums.

Stay, gain a bit more perspective, maybe you will understand why we bought into BD, and you could help us understand why HD DVD supporters are so venomous towards us (not that you are, I mean rdjam and that lot).

[dobyblue]

I'm dobyblue on every site I've posted on since September 2003.

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

I see what you're getting at. But, the reason BD supporters (for the most part) stayed fast was because of what they saw happening in the future:

Absolutely right.

[What'sHD]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

(clip)you could help us understand why HD DVD supporters are so venomous towards us (not that you are, I mean rdjam and that lot).

I second that request and would consider it rather useful info.

Besides sony-hating, toshiba-loving, cant-live-without-universal-ing and MS-loving, are there any reasons which justify some of the hostility shown?

I would really like to know.

[dialog_gvf]

The big difference between HD DVD and BD supporters is the attitude to the other side:

I don't dislike Toshiba (my set is a Toshiba) or HD DVD (I would have bought into it if that was all that was offered). But, something better is available, and the HD DVD crowd simply can't stand people that take that position.

My complaints about Microsoft have NOTHING really to do with HD DVD. It's their anti-BD FUD that I have a problem with. Amir would have been great if he stuck to supporting HD DVD.

Gary

[What'sHD]

I agree. I am a big fan of MCE in XP and even more so of MCE in Vista U.

I have a 360 (decent machine, buggy though) and truth be told, I was a big fan of VC1 until I saw amir get caught fudding at avs.

Imo, amir single-handedly "fudded" me off hd-dvd via his anti-BD postings, ably supported by Nat and his obnoxious attitude. Ben is quite rational though obv. he toes the party line, which is expected of any insider.


rdjam, DM, julie are amateurs and irritants but they didnt turn me off hd-dvd. Imo, it is HD-dvd's misfortune, in the long run, to have such supporters.

hd-dvd is a good format but BD is better. That is how I see it and I also thus reckon that the PS3 is better value than the 360, not to mention being a better engineered machine.

[1234abcd]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

Same here, find me as Maxpower1987 on pretty much all forums.

Stay, gain a bit more perspective, maybe you will understand why we bought into BD, and you could help us understand why HD DVD supporters are so venomous towards us (not that you are, I mean rdjam and that lot).

Thanks. Right now HD DVD supporters are understandably upset at the lack of enthusiam and releases by the DVD leaders. That, coupled with the "high confidence levels" of the Blu-ray fans and the BDA make it pretty easy for HD DVD supporters to be "venomous". This is a really emotional war and a lot of people, myself included, are really getting into it as if it were a sport. Remember, Sony execs. have made a lot of arrogant statements, such as "they don't have the horses to compete with us" which many HD DVD fans, like myself, take a great dislike to (even if it's true). It's like you're playing a game and the leader on the other side calls you a punk. I mean, many BD fans think it's an overstatement for HD DVD fans to even consider themselves an underdog. So all in all, it's the cocky and arrogant attitude that makes us so "venomous" and thus, even more loyal to HD DVD than we otherwise would be.

Having said that, I try to understand where you guys are coming from and that's the main reason why I'm here. I try not to take all this too seriously (I guess it depends on my mood and how things are going), but I also would like to know why I'm so drawn in, and a larger perspective may enable me to do just that.