Blu-ray Life span

[unreal1080p]

Originally Posted by JasonR

But Unreal I thought we would be seeing 4k in homes within 10 years?

That's the forbidden golden banana reserved for the 900 pound Gorilla that is Digital Movie Theater. If they give THAT up, the movie studios can kiss movie theater revenus goodbye and they are VERY well aware of this.

P.S. I know YOU were kidding about the 4K in 10 years crack but I had to explain for the others why it's so ludicrous.

[209Mason]

Originally Posted by dgator783

20 years....B+M stores will never let physical media die....

I agree!
... And neither will I!

Maybe it's just me, but I hate the idea of owning something that's well... not physically real. I LOVE my DVD collection, CD collection, and my burgeoning BLU collection. They're real, I can look at them and display them.

I have a much easier time dropping dough on something I can bring home and unwrap than I do paying money for a bunch of 1's and 0's that would exist on something that could be lost, broken, or destroyed by a virus (ipod, computer, etc).

[Teazle]

Pace unreal1080p, if 3D catches on in the theatres that might motivate a new disc standard in say 15 yrs or thereabouts. (I say 15 after the experience of VHS then DVD.)

[Zixxer]

Originally Posted by unreal1080p

10 reasons why nothing better then Blu-Ray is coming before 2050:

1) Transition from VHS/Laserdisc to DVD happened because:
-there had to be a transition from ANALOG to DIGITAL (both VHS & Laserdisc were analog formats)
-there had to be a transition to a more portable practical format (as opposed to huge ass Laserdisc and clunky VHS cassettes).

2) Transition from DVD to Blu-Ray had to happen because of the new broadcast standard that is HDTV

3) There are NO MORE valid reasons to transition to another format now

4) The next valid reason will ONLY happen when a new broadcast standard is established in North America and we are barely at the infancy of the HDTV era.

5) The next broadcast standard is Super Hi-Vision (8K) and is NOT coming until 2040-2050 (in North America).

6) DOWNLOADS ARE NOT THE FUTURE! By the time downloads even become somewhat mainstream, Blu-Ray will have such an overwhelming presence and be so inexpensive that it will not be threatened by crappy quality downloads. By the time the quality of downloads reaches Blu-Ray quality (audio & video) Blu-Ray will simply SHARE a market with downloads (IMHO the VAST majority of the population will and ALWAYS will prefer a physicall format).

7) TV's in peoples homes are going to be 2K (1920 X 1080) for a very VERY long time. There is absolutely NO REASON for the masses to change their HDTV's until a new higher end broadcast standard is established.

8) The previous broadcast standard was established in 1950 and is still going strong today even though HDTV was introduced in 1998.



9) If DVD had came out in the early 60's... it would still be going strong today as their would have been NO REASON to change it for something else... EXACTLY the same reason why there will be NO reason to change Blu-Ray until approx 2050 when/if a new higher end broadcast standard becomes established in North America and a sufficient amount of homes have adopted new TV's supporting the new specification.

10) DVD's have been around for 10 years and will last another 10 until COMPLETELY being replaced by Blu-Ray. With Blu-Ray around as the highest quality form of movie media for the next 40 years, I believe it will take an additional 20 years for it to go away even after the introduction of something better... 2050 + 20 = 2070... making the lifespan of Blu-Ray 60+ years

P.S. Movie studios will still find ways to make you spend your money with 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th editions Super, Duper, Magical, Extended, Director's Cut & The Son of the Director's cut editions

THANK YOU! somebody who agrees with me.

btw, great presentation!

[Zixxer]

people hate new format standards forced on to them. that is what is about to happen in a year. i really cant believe how many peopl think 1080 lines of resolution will be replaced within a decade or so [confused]

[blu2]

Sony and the rest of the vendors depend on new technology introduction. In ten years there will be no margins left in selling Blu Ray and they'll be pushing something else. Studios will be happy to tag along so you can re-buy your library.

[turboedguy]

I promise, I will never die...

[Chuey]

At this point I can't see any new technology can replace Blu-ray in the near future, I will have to say 20 to 30 years before something new that has not been invented may become a media of choice and it is definitely not download. Download may co-exist with Blu in the rental market but will never be the physical media of choice.

The capacity of Blu-ray can reach 200G, it should have enough storage to store even the 4k resolution movies and how long it takes for the 4K to become a standard or will it ever be? How long will it takes to adopt a higher resolution than 1080P?

[Petra_Kalbrain]

Originally Posted by straydog52

How long do you think blu-ray will be around before the next big media.

15 years at least.

[mystiksuicide]

Originally Posted by dgator783

20 years....B+M stores will never let physical media die....

B & M will not make any money of downloads so I agree that blu will be around for a very long time, longer than many suspect.

[unreal1080p]

Originally Posted by Teazle

Pace unreal1080p, if 3D catches on in the theatres that might motivate a new disc standard in say 15 yrs or thereabouts. (I say 15 after the experience of VHS then DVD.)

3D is Bullshit! Gimme a holodeck NOW!!!

BTW... this is what I hope the next Disc Based Movie Format delivers (in 2050):

1) Lossless Video
2) 4:4:4 (NO chroma subsampling)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/YUV_4:2:0#4:2:0
3) xvYCC color space (30 million colors --> 1.8 times more then RGB)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XvYCC
4) 48bit color depth (16bit per colour)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Color
5) Super Hi-Vision 8K resolution (7680 X 4320)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Hi-Vision
6) I'm good with 7.1 Lossless audio but Super Hi-Vision has 22.2 audio
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/22.2

[Blu Haze]

Heck people dont even know what Blu ray is right now. I would say 10 years just cause i want something better in 10 years. Like hmm SUC Blu ray!

[Blu-Jawa]

I saw some report about these new tv's I think they are called: "Hologram Tv"
they show video that is shown in the air like 3D. and you can walk around it and see the pic from all side's!

I would guess they want it too show HD Video before they start selling.

I would hope Blu-Ray's can play on those. and we will not need to upgrade to Video's on Crystal's (like the ones Superman uses to view his home videos on)

Blu-Ray grows too the rip old age of 1 millon years old!

[jw]

Originally Posted by mystiksuicide

B & M will not make any money of downloads so I agree that blu will be around for a very long time, longer than many suspect.

exactly, WM tried and failed. People come to the B&M to get what they need and get out, not wait around to buy DL, If they were to do all that, they most likely picked up the DVD instead.

Maybe 5 years down the road the public will be ready, but for now that crowd perfers a disc

[EvolutionCherry]

The ones who said 15-20 years is right on the money. Their is already a 100GB prototype BD disc around already so I have a feeling that BD is here to stay for a long while. As for the download thing, unless they can get a download to somehow hook in all the extras that a BD/DVD/(even)HD-DVD has(special features, languages and captions, behind the scenes...etc.) as well as a Hard drive with several TB of space that can easily fit in a PC or Apple-TV box, there is no viable way to conceive downloads at this time.

[Animusmors]

I say Blu-Ray will be around for 12 parsecs. How long is it still taking ATSC to replace NTSC. Think about that.








Yes, I know parsec is a measure of distance. But Han-solo said it so it's cool.

[alphadec]

The future of blu-ray will be here for a very long time 10-20 years. But think the Bd format will change with more storage up to 300gb maybe we will get that in 3-5 years time.

So I don't see how anyhting will stop BD.

here someone say "until download" all I can say "forget it".

[docjan_uk]

In terms of it's big hurrah?
I'd say between now and 2015.
In terms of overlapping with and slowly losing to the increasingly powerful (by then) download, 2020.
It will probably hang on in some form or another till around 2025-2030, probably just in rewriteable media or something. Not movies.

[MSG33]

I agree with most of the people on here claiming about 20 years.

The vast majority of the peolpe I've heard (both in articles and in person) say "well, downloading is going to take over, anyway" are bitter about having invested a lot of cash in HD-DVD collection, either in the form of corporate support (Microsoft, Toshiba etc.) or a personal collection (several of my friends who).

I personally believe there are a great deal of constraints that make downloading impractical:

1) Bandwidth. There is no way the infrastructure would support people downloading blu-ray quality content, on a scale comparable to present-day DVD purchases without massive problems.

2) Quality will be poorer than blu-ray, I suspect more of a lossy 1080i with lossy compresion and compromised audio.

3) Downloaded collections are a PITA to manage. There's authorizing and deauthorizing computers to worry about. Here's another issue I've actually witnessed a couple times: in a divorce how does the couple split up their music that they've bought on the same account? They're not going to want to "share" authorizations anymore, so it's basically an all or nothing call (short of burn a massive stack of CD-Rs and re-ripping them, with ensuing quality loss). Physical media is still a lot easier to "divide up".

4) Downloaded content can be easily lost. Services like iTunes expect their useres to burn backup copies regularly. Nobody ever does this. I'm willing to bet more than 95% of all iTunes users have NEVER backed up ANY of their content.

5) purchasing hard copy media is NOT inconvenient. I don't know if any of the guys advocating downloding have noticed this, but I can order a CD, DVD or BD on Amazon and receive it in two days, and set it on my shelf FAR EASIER than the work it takes to download a movie, transfer it to an iPod/Apple TV/external hard drive, burn a backup copy of my library, label and store it. Not to mention much more appealing to guests who want to pick a movie to watch.


Downloading makes a lot more sense for music, where people want random access to any song they own at any time. Even then, I still prefer to purchase a hard-copy first, then rip it. No need to make a hard copy backup (I already have one), and I can very easily rip to any codec I want, not just whatever the services feels like offering. With movies, downloading is even less sensible IMO. Few people watch their movies outside of their home theaters/TV sets, and as it is, watching downloaded media on TVs -- especially homes with multiple TVs -- is far from easy.

[jibucha]

Hello

I think that both Blu-ray and Downloads will both be around indefinitely; that they will co-exist together, benefiting those that prefer each for their respective conveniences and attributes.

Personally, I prefer physical media for so many reasons, but have nothing against those that prefer downloads.

Additionally, I really do think that the unreal l 1080P poster is fantastic; I wish I had the time to go into as much detail here as well, but is is very late and I simply cannot.

Thank You