Commentary from the Insiders Thread

[hoser]

^OK...how about Weinstein and Universal???

[Farscape1]

Universal unlikely for some time... but you can never tell.


Here is some more good news for the Big Blu...........................

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.a...leid=CA6471109

Research firm still predicts Blu-ray high-def winner
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By Susanne Ault -- Video Business, 8/22/2007

AUG. 22 | BEVERLY HILLS, Calif.—Research firm Understanding & Solutions reiterated its stance that Blu-ray Disc will prove victorious in the high-definition format war, despite Paramount Home Entertainment’s and DreamWorks Animation’s move to back rival HD DVD exclusively.

During a breakfast update on consumer downloading and high-definition issues here Wednesday, U&S director Jim Bottoms cited as reason the larger number of studio titles produced exclusively for Blu-ray. Also, the Paramount/DreamWorks move to HD DVD exclusivity did not add any new titles to that side, he noted, since the studios until this week supported both formats.

“The weight of industry support is still very much behind Blu-ray,” said Bottoms, preceding his arguments by noting that U&S remains a private entity, not financially benefiting from either side. He said that studios representing 58% market share overall, based on first quarter video shipments, back Blu-ray.

“We have gone on record before that BD format is most likely to succeed, and we don’t believe [the Paramount/DreamWorks decision] will change that outcome,” said Bottoms.

Another major driver for Blu-ray will be the PlayStation 3, which currently continues to sell below expectations but can still make an impact over the next few years, Bottoms said. He estimates 15 million to 20 million consoles will be in U.S. homes by that time.

Prolonging war

The main consequence of Paramount and DreamWorks’ move to HD DVD is the prolonging of the format war, which U&S previously projected would be decided by first-quarter 2008.

Only a fraction of home entertainment business today, high-def business will be significant by 2011, U&S predicts. The company reports that by then, 40 million HD DVD and Blu-ray set-top players will be sold, representing 36% of U.S. households; 25 million Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 consoles combined, representing 22% of households; and 20 million PC drives, representing 17% of homes.

There will be 8.7 million software units sold among the two formats in 2007, and 59 million units sold in 2008, U&S predicts.

Although there is growth on the horizon, Bottoms warned that high-def companies need to improve their messages to consumers to maximize revenue.

“There is a lot of confusion with consumers over high-def in general,” Bottoms said. “I heard from a consumer, ‘I was going to buy an HDTV screen, but now I’m going to buy a Blu-ray screen. That is quite typical of the confusion that exists. But the important take away is that there is great opportunity [with high-def], but there still needs to be some work done to turn this all into a real

[Uxi]

Maybe NewLine or... ?

[Rob Tomlin]

Originally Posted by Uxi

Maybe NewLine or... ?

Hey, what took you so long so sign up over here?!?!

Welcome!

[Iceman_II]

Originally Posted by Razter

When this is all "over" someone need to write a book about what really happend behind the sceens over this past years

Better yet, make it a straight to video production - straight to Blu

[Uxi]

Heh, a mixture of not knowing if there'd be enough time for another AV board, and a possibly misplaced sense of loyalty, but I'm liking what I read here. Thanks!

[WickyWoo]

Is it true that the Seinfeld show was remastered in HD? If so, do you see a box set selling on Blu-ray anytime soon?

I don't know either way, but I can tell you that several studios have been retransferring a lot of film based comedies to HD, specifically ones like MASH, Cheers, and probably Seinfeld because of their continued syndication value

[WriteSimply]

Originally Posted by Iceman_II

Better yet, make it a straight to video production - straight to Blu

I can write the script or the book. But not both.

paidgeek, I just watched CE3K on a PAL DVD. Made me all verklempt. Questions:

a) since there are three versions of the movie, what source are you using?
b) This may be a DVD problem or low-bitrate MPEG-2 problem. Some of the EFX scenes on the DVD have pulsing issues. Is that from the source or just a DVD problem?

Thanks paidgeek. I can wait until Monday!


fuad

[johnnyd1]

Originally Posted by Penton-Man

That’s too generic a hypothetical situation that you’ve presented.
It would depend on the actual news, the players involved and of primary importance, gaining the appropriate permission (from all parties) to do so.

It’s a case by case thing.
Of course, the ink had been dry for awhile on the Paramount deci$ion before I made by oblique reference to it on AVMS – where I really don’t plan on posting any more news or hints of news as that forum has just become a hand maiden for Micro$oft, in my opinion.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by JTK

Pardon me if this is a repeat that you already answered before or if you simply can't answer it for any number of reasons but here goes:

See the part of your post that I bolded? More or less: How long had that Paramount deal been in the works and how long had it been in effect outright before it became public news this past Monday, August 20?

Well that depends on what you mean by in the works, it started way back when Start Trek TOS was made HD DVD exclusive. Obviously since things started to change back and drift towards Blu-ray again, but the $150m in red velvet cases, well records that I know of don't go back very far, maybe four days (references to working negotiation between Viacom Inc. and the DVD Forum is what I saw, but they were very limited, maybe because of the secrecy required, probably because it isn't really our industry - high definition meida isn't something we deal with directly or indirectly for that matter), but of course that time-frame comes from records I have personally had a look at.

It is part of the reason why was pretty calm about the whole thing when it went down, I had already come to terms with it .

People in Paramount themselves didn't know about the deal until the day and keeping something major like that under wraps for more than just a few weeks/days from your own workforce (some of whom will be working towards Blu-ray releases) is very difficult so I can't imagine that they thought about it too much.

[JTK]

Penton-Man,

Can you assure us the BDA is in it to win it?

Back at the beginning of this year, IMHO, ALL BDA had to do is secure one of three studios to ensure victory. Had either Paramount, Warner Brothers, or Universal went Blu-ray exclusive, this thing will be long be over. Instead, the BDA coasted along without being proactive. Along came Microsoft ...the big bad wolf. The sheep herder(BDA) fell asleep on the job and lost one sheep on the fringe. They are about to lose another if they don't get their act together. When Microsoft finished plucking sheep on the outer fringes, the core will be easy target. By that time, it will be too late to do anything.

The longer this war rages on, the weaker BDA gets. Microsoft knows this. BDA should do WHATEVER it takes to win this fast. Otherwise, the inevitable will happen. The BDA spent hundreds of millions in ads and promotions for Blu-ray and all it took, in retrospect, was $150 million to ensure victory. Don't make this mistake again. End it now ...whatever it takes. Otherwise, Microsoft will pluck one sheep at a time until its too late.

The Paramount deal will prolong this war and will cost the BDA millions and millions. Those millions could of have been used to ensured victory in the first place.

^^ Can't really disagree with any of that.

Myself and others have been warning people for the last two years along the lines of: "Don't underestimate MS. The home theater market hasn't had to tangle with them like this before. MS does WHATEVER IT TAKES to get what they want" etc. etc.

I don't feel like these warnings were heeded very well and, to be fair, the Blu-Ray launch last August was...less than stellar, to put it kindly. The real launch happened in November with the PS3 and they've been going up ever since.

I realize I don't know A LOT that happens with the big boys, but from public perspective? Yes, it feels like it's been the BDA's game to win all along and they just keep "allowing" HD-DVD to stay alive somehow when it really just shouldn't be.

By any and all rights: This Christmas should have been the end of HD-DVD outright. Now we're staring down what: Another 12 months? 18? 24? Utterly ridiculous and depressing as hell, to boot.

Just shouldn't be.

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

Well that depends on what you mean by in the works, it started way back when Start Trek TOS was made HD DVD exclusive.

I remember this setting off a little alarm in my head but overall, this was a clear warning sign that "the public" saw and we all should have taken it more seriously and made a bigger deal of it then the way it seemed.

That Star Trek announcement really was a dead giveaway.

That's why I look at Warner's behavior all along and just do not understand or get where people think they might ever flip to all Blu.

Obviously since things started to change back and drift towards Blu-ray again, but the $150m in red velvet cases, well records that I know of don't go back very far, maybe four days, but of course that time-frame comes from records I have personally had a look at.

I see.

Well, that makes sense considering as recently as a month or two ago we were starting to see rumors about the concept of Paramount going all Blu and, in essence, ending the format war for all intents and purposes. We all saw the pro Blu sentiments they were putting out in the press and the rest of it.

Certainly them staying neutral for the forseeable future seemed the safe bet.

Short of insiders, I daresay that most of us in the public were blindsided or just short of it this past Monday when Paramount sold out to HD-DVD.

It is part of the reason why was pretty calm about the whole thing when it went down, I had already come to terms with it .

You and some others.

People in Paramount themselves didn't know about the deal until the day and keeping something major like that under wraps for more than just a few weeks/days from your own workforce (some of whom will be working towards Blu-ray releases) is very difficult so I can't imagine that they thought about it too much.

Makes sense. Also sounds kind of shady to me, in addition to the obvious "taking a bribe payoff" thing.

It's just another little detail to the whole thing that stinks to me.

[LeoneFan]

I agree, with the BDA's actions all along this year so far, it doesn't seem like they are in it to win, but I still have some faith. I mean, you would think with all these mega corporations in the BDA they would be able to offer Paramount $500 million to go Blu-ray exclusive if needed. I guess they just didn't give a shit. I think the BDA just started riding the PS3's coat tails and forgot about being on the offensive.

[Longshot]

Originally Posted by Balian

Penton-Man,

Can you assure us the BDA is in it to win it?

Back at the beginning of this year, IMHO, ALL BDA had to do is secure one of three studios to ensure victory. Had either Paramount, Warner Brothers, or Universal went Blu-ray exclusive, this thing will be long be over. Instead, the BDA coasted along without being proactive. Along came Microsoft ...the big bad wolf. The sheep herder(BDA) fell asleep on the job and lost one sheep on the fringe. They are about to lose another if they don't get their act together. When Microsoft finished plucking sheep on the outer fringes, the core will be easy target. By that time, it will be too late to do anything.

The longer this war rages on, the weaker BDA gets. Microsoft knows this. BDA should do WHATEVER it takes to win this fast. Otherwise, the inevitable will happen. The BDA spent hundreds of millions in ads and promotions for Blu-ray and all it took, in retrospect, was $150 million to ensure victory. Don't make this mistake again. End it now ...whatever it takes. Otherwise, Microsoft will pluck one sheep at a time until its too late.

The Paramount deal will prolong this war and will cost the BDA millions and millions. Those millions could of have been used to ensured victory in the first place.

+1. Outstanding post.

[BluFox]

Well, if there was a major studio not worth $150 million it would be Paramount, IMHO. If Fox releases all year around this lost will be easily softened in retail shelfs.

But the BDA will find it diffcult to end the war quickly if another major leaves or loses its smaller studios. Let's hope Warner stays.

[Jamh]

I have to respectfully disagree with you guys. I think the BDA has done an admirable job promoting Blu-ray and staying on the offensive. In the past several months there has been announcement after announcement of new Blu-ray supporters both in the film industry and the retail markets. In my oppinion the only thing that would've come from the BDA attempting to counter-offer M$, which Insiders say they found out about too late to do anything about it anyway, would've been a bidding war and we know how deep those pockets go.

I do believe that Paramount, who turned their back on the interests of their consumers for a quick buck, and the HD-DVD group have shown their true colors and have made quite a few enemies out there. This definitely can't be going over well with retailers who believed this foolish format war was finally coming to a close. In fact I believe that the BDA could use this to garner retailer support, after all how long will studios continue to support a format if their players are dropped from stores?

Anyway that's my $0.02 on the matter. However, to make this post a little more legit I'd like to ask the Insiders if there's any word on if The Simpsons Movie will be released on BD this year? And if so, will it include some of the same cool features as some of the other Fox releases this year?

[Dotpattern]

I agree with Jamh. I don't remember seeing any complaints about how the BDA was moving forward prior to the Paramount news. It was nothing but smiles and cockiness on behalf of all of us as one piece of great news after another was announced - from the great releases coming up (Cars, Spider-Man 3, Ratatouille, Close Encounters and Pirates 3) to the tremendous waves of support from Blockbuster and Target. I think all of these things, along with the recent Fox announcement as well as ones to come, remain reasons to keep smiling...we're just a little more humble now.

It's no coincidence that 2 weeks ago the Target I go to had 2 rows of BD and 2 rows of HDDVD, and today they've got 4 rows of BD and still only 2 rows of HDDVD.

[LynxFX]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

I mean, you would think with all these mega corporations in the BDA they would be able to offer Paramount $500 million to go Blu-ray exclusive if needed.

The problem with that is why would the BDA even need to do that? What makes Paramount so special to warrant $500m, or $150m or even $1m? Absolutely nothing. How about Disney, Fox, Lionsgate? How would they feel about Paramount getting all that money while they, whom have been exclusive from the begginning get nothing?

The reward and incentive to be Blu-ray should be apparent to anyone. You sell more discs on Blu-ray. If the BDA really wants to spend money on incentives they should take that $150m, spread it across all the BD stand alone players out there and give a couple hundred dollar rebates on a million players. That increases the userbase, and the Studios sell more discs, or I should say, even more than they are now.

Paramount isn't even in this war anymore. They are as relevant as a scab worker during a strike. They got their money, they could care less what happens. If the BDA really wants to 'win' they need to start appealing more to the consumers who are holding all of that potential profit in their very own pockets.

[jsb_hburg]

Yep, I have to agree with Jamh as well. BDA has been nurturing some momentum over the last couple of months. And we saw the fruits of it in the weeks before the Viacom defection.

There are a number of exclusive blockbusters coming our way in the next 75 days to more than ease the loss of Paramount. And considering the release history of Paramount, it was not a big loss. But to have one format, it would be nice to have them back.

I do have a question:

Who has the rights to older family titles like Sound of Music and Chitty Chitty Bang Bang? And if BD, are they being considered for release?

Thanks!

[Deciazulado]

Sound Fox, and Chitty MGM/UA//Fleming. (I've never owned Bang Bang on video only the Corgi )

[David Vaughn]

Originally Posted by Blu_J

To any Insider that wishes to comment...

Here is a clip from Scott H. in his latest blog at HDiH-

"Microsoft corporate vp, consumer media technology Amir Majidimehr applied for media access to Disney home entertainment's web site the same week that Paramount/DreamWorks announced they were abandoning the Disney-backed Blu-ray format. Can't criticize the guy for trying, I guess, and at least he was completely open and candid about who he is -- listed his accurate name, title, affiliation, and contact info.
But holy cow, what kind of shenanigan or desperate act is this?
Either he thinks the people at Disney are idiots, he's up to something, or he curiously believed the studio would be happy to grant him the access.
Disney Home Entertainment's worldwide head of communications Eric Maehara told me he laughed hysterically at this request and said that once Amir can get properly accredited as a legitimate journalist then Maehara will be happy to give him access. "Who knows," Maehara said, "If he's lucky and i'm in a good mood, maybe i'll even give him a Blu-ray screener."

What could Amir poosibly want with media access to Disney?
It make me feel all good inside to hear how Eric M. responded.

How difficult would it be for an anonymous person to register in Amir's name? I wouldn't put this past too many people out there. Scott writing about this is questionable journalism.