How long do you think Blu-ray will last?

[ckent22]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

The average person doesn't have enough movies to worry about storage space being an issue. I'm pushing 300 and I'm certainly not stressed about space. We've got a room basically dedicated to housing our 2k+ DVDs, so I know how it can be to worry for space, but the average person won't ever really hit that point. They still make books, they still make CDs. People don't download all of their music and books, why would you think people would want to have only own digital copies of movies?

That's what I said. Some don't like the space that they take up. Others like to look at their collection. Why do I think they want to have digital copies? Because our world is going digital. Everywhere you look, digital is taking over. There will always be a market for hard copy books, but look at the new technology of an electronic book reader where you can download audio books to it. There's a market for both. People like new technology and digital.

The people who are currently being attracted are the ones doing it ILLEGALLY. I don't care what they do, just like I don't care about the people who download all of their MP3s illegally.

That's a very ignorant statement. There are plenty of ways that you can but obviously don't have to get downloads besides doing it illegally. iTunes, Netflix, etc. come to mind who has other competitors, Blockbuster has online downloads. All sorts of boxes/hard drives are offering downloading services. PS3 is even has a store for downloads online.

It'll be a very long time before infrastructure can even be in place to purchase high quality digital copies to own. For digital distribution, the best way to appeal is to hit the folks who would normally rent. The average person will be a lot more willing to pay-per-view over the internet than to buy a movie that they'd never "own" for "real".

I agree with some of this. But, when it comes to digital downloads depending on the studio it can cut out the third party seller like Best Buy. But, at the same time you could still have Netflix or Blockbuster that you still have to pay too. I don't agree with you that people would rather use pay per view. Downloads from the ones I've seen are already cheaper than disc based media, so it makes sense for a lot of people who don't want to spend 30 dollars on a movie to buy the cheaper downloads.

This point can best be summed up as "people are stupid". I think it was this thread I talked about it, but basically people are stupid and they need to be educated. This much is obvioius.

A lot of consumers are ignorant. Some people are stupid, and some aren't.

Just because something is technologically obsolete doesn't mean its not still marketable for economic reasons. People don't buy CRT TVs because they want to, they buy them because they're really cheap. And they're really cheap because they're technologically obsolete. But because people keep buying them, companies keep making them.

Yeah, I'm not quite sure what your point here is. It's why DVD is still on the shelves.

Also: I still stand that niche isn't the right word. It implies that it's a small group and that's all there is to it, such as laserdisc's users or perhaps DVD-A and SACD. There have been plenty of niche formats through the ages, and Blu-ray has higher market penetration than all of them, even at their peak. Would you have called DVD niche back in 2000? If so, where is the point where you'd decide that the "next big thing" is no longer niche?

I'm not sure you understand what niche means. Niche means it applies to a focus, targetable market. You've somehow managed to connect the word niche to laserdisc, DVD-A, and SACD. But, you fail to realize that with only 1 in 3 houses having some sort of HD technology and that doesn't mean that they have Blu-ray, then MOST households don't have Blu-ray or HD technology. Blu-ray, although successful, is still not a mass technology. It's a niche format. Just because it has high market pentration doesn't mean it's not niche. And also, what you fail to take into account, is that many people who don't have a Blu-ray player buy Blu-ray, but only because at some point in the future they know they will get a Blu-ray player and go Hi-Def.

At this point, Blu-ray is applied to a focused, targetable market - - the Hi-Def market. Once again, there would be no DVDs or HD converter boxes on store shelves if it wasn't niche.

You'll be waiting a very long time then. I don't think there is even anyone that would consider VHS to be "antique",and yet we can all agree that DVD has thoroughly replaced it.

VHS is technically an antique. I don't think we'll be waiting a long time at all.

A History of Violence was released on video in 2006 (guess what else was released in 2006...). It was the last movie released on VHS. This is nearly 10 years after DVD debuted. If Blu-ray plays out exactly like DVD did (which it almost certainly will not), the last movie to be released on DVD would be released in 2015. Is that the point in time you're looking for?

You're proving my point which is that people will always go for the cheaper product until convinced otherwise. The major mass market is not sold on Blu-ray and if not properly sold, Blu-ray won't take off the way DVD did. Downloads and Piracy are going to affect Blu-ray, and will keep it from sharing the same lifespan as DVD. That's my opinion - - I'm sorry you don't like it. But, to say that downloads won't be a major player is ridiculous.

If the players can get prices down low enough and support increases enough, the studios can push BD on those reluctant to shift whether they have HDTVs or not. The same thing happened with DVD replacing VHS. There were plenty of people who didn't want to switch, but in time, studios just stopped doing new releases on VHS and people who wanted to keep checking out new movies were forced to take the dive.

You've got a point here, but at the same time, it's still very difficult to convince the average consumer who can buy new releases for about 15 dollars on DVD and catalogue releases for less than 5 dollars in most stores. Until Blu-ray comes down in price, which we agree will help it, then it's not gonna be mainstream and only focused on a particular niche market.

And it's clear that the studios want it. Or, at least, folks like Disney and Fox and Sony seem to be readily on board for takeover.

They don't necessarily care about the product they are selling. They just care about the money they get from mine and yours pocket.

I just look at all other forms of media and see that the only one where digital has truly thrived is in music, and I justify that by its ease of illegal download and the portability people require of their music.

Well, you seem to be talking about illegal downloading a lot, but you are very ignorant or choose to ignore the legal aspects of downloading. Whichever one it is, I'm not sure, but iTunes makes a killing on downloads of movies and music. It's not just music. It's movies too.

That, and I hate people arguing in favor of downloads when the potential advantage of not requiring physical storage can be easily shortchanged by the DRM issues and the idea of what would happen in the case of catastrophic harddrive failure.

Easy there. No need to hate people who disagree with you. Have you seen the Digital Copies that come with Blu-ray? They handle that very well, and the DRM is intact. Also, I do believe that several measures will be put into place to keep downloads intact regardless of hard drive failure.

The only way an optical disc fails is by misuse. Scratches and things of that nature. Data on other formats such as harddrives and flash drives are more volatile, flash drives especially.

That's incorrect. As I've said, anything technologically related can fail whether it's a disc or a hard drive. It's not just by misuse. Some discs only have lifespans of two years or are guaranteed two years by their manufacturers. They don't last forever.

The type of person you're referring to,would they stress about having a single shelf with a couple dozen movies on them? I don't think so. They'd probably be more stressed about their harddrive failing for no good reason and them losing the 12 movies they already paid for.

Again, I believe measures will be put into place where if hard drive failure occurs, then you'll be able to download again without paying for it twice.

They already have servers for that. People rip DVDs and fill servers with them.

I'm talking about legally.

Cost per GB on a harddrive isn't the problem here. It's the fact that flash drives are too small to provide a step above what Blu-ray can, and the much higher volatility of the format can very easily make any potential advancement in specs worthless.

Do you honestly think that more memory is not going to be placed on HDs in the futures whether it is flash or portable HDs?

I enjoy streaming things on my TV as well, but I'd never consider that form of delivery for ownership. I watch basically all the TV I watch streamed online, and I watch movies from time to time on Hulu. But if I were to OWN the TV shows or movies, I'd want to physically have them. I might be projecting my thoughts and desires onto all of humanity, but I'd like to think most other people would agree that single-instance watching works by digital delivery just fine, while purchased ownership does not.

You should probably realize that there are several people who buy movies off iTunes, use Netlfix, Blockbuster, etc. for downloads. Does that make them wrong because they don't buy Blu-ray? Not necessarily. Just as with anything else, there will always be a market for different types of the same product. That's what I've been saying. There will be people who prefer disc based media, but at the same time, there will be people who prefer downloads. I feel as technology becomes better and as time goes by, then it's only a matter of time, before downloading affects Blu-rays sales substantially. You say it's a long time away. It might be, but it very well is more than likely going to happen. Downloading to this extent never was around during DVDs rise, so it's hard to say that Blu-ray will be as successful considering how it is a different time.