So, about the Oscars...

[P@t_Mtl]

Nice numbers Toefer, make for interesting reading.

Past the numbers there is also hype and popularity. I know that many time Academy voters overlook all that but right now Avatar is riding the HUGE high wave. Make's me believe that despite all the things going against it (ordinary movie with ordinary story and actor and fill with amazing CGI and 3D) it as a better chance then we might think of grabbing the Best Picture award.

Well about a month to wait and speculate, what fun this will be.

[jhiggy23]

Originally Posted by vegeta88

Great work toefer! I think there is efinitely a correlation between Best Picture and Screenplay but they all seem to be a little connected. An actor can give an amazing performance but if the script is bad, it isn't likely that person will win the award.

He was referring to Dances with Avatar

[kurtis21]

Originally Posted by jhiggy23

He was referring to Dances with Avatar

LOL!!!!!

[RockChalk]

Originally Posted by toefer

Well that's what sparked the idea to look this stuff up (even if it's not very useful)... it seems like if a movie has a good plot, it's not questioned when it gets nominated for Best Picture. They'll ignore the slightly-above-average'ness of the rest of the movie, as long as they're sold on the story.

But since I know Avatar scares you... don't give up on it yet. Remember Titanic? It wasn't nominated for best screenplay.

I can see the Best Picture this year being a toss-up between 3 movies (Avatar, The Hurt Locker, and Up in the Air).

Umm...Avatar will NOT win best picture and it will only be nominated because of the mainstream push and because the general public loved it because apparently special effects can drown out poor dialogue, lazy storytelling and an agenda being pushed by Cameron and the film itself

[retablo]

Originally Posted by jhiggy23

I agree that those are decent odds, but I still think Up in the Air has a better shot at winning than the Hurt Locker. The Academy has begun to give more attention to smaller films like Up in the Air and definitely have a thing for Jason Reitman, considering he somehow got an Oscar nom for best director (bafflingly) over Joe Wright for Atonement three years ago.


That being said, while I think Up in the Air and Avatar are the top two going in, you certainly can argue Hurt Locker as well. Regardless, those are the top three.

True, but what Up in the Air has against it is that it's not winning anything in months (except for the Golden Globe screenplay — typically a script will win if the movie does not, same with the Oscars)... no one in Hollywood is talking about it. Until the recent Hurt Locker surge, almost everyone had predicted Avatar winning — and when I say everyone, I'm talking about people in Hollywood and in the Academy who vote. I would prefer Up in the Air to win — I think its the best of the 3, although I loved Avatar and Hollywood loves to honor big hits that bring something new to the table, even if its a technology — a technology that many many films will begin to use, both the 3-D Pace cameras and Cameron's "steering wheel" camera, as well as the performance capture system he created. For the people complaining about lack of character development in Avatar, did you even see Hurt Locker? It's well made, but the script is paper thin with very little characterizations at all. I'm surprised it's getting the attention it is.

[toef]

Originally Posted by RockChalk

Umm...Avatar will NOT win best picture and it will only be nominated because of the mainstream push and because the general public loved it because apparently special effects can drown out poor dialogue, lazy storytelling and an agenda being pushed by Cameron and the film itself

Want to make a bet?

[P@t_Mtl]

Originally Posted by toefer

Want to make a bet?

Yep! I also have that feeling that Avatar will get it, we should not be too surprise if it were to happen.

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by RockChalk

Umm...Avatar will NOT win best picture and it will only be nominated because of the mainstream push and because the general public loved it because apparently special effects can drown out poor dialogue, lazy storytelling and an agenda being pushed by Cameron and the film itself

So, hows that move to Europe looking? It was the plan if Avatar gets nominated for Best Picture, right?

[RockChalk]

Originally Posted by Rob71

So, hows that move to Europe looking? It was the plan if Avatar gets nominated for Best Picture, right?

Again if it gets nominated it is because of the oush by the media and making up for people being mad TDK and Wall-E didnt get noms, that along with the inventive technology, This movie will not get a nomination because of acting, storytelling, dialogue, it will be because of CGI and Special Effects

[toef]

Originally Posted by RockChalk

Again if it gets nominated it is because of the oush by the media and making up for people being mad TDK and Wall-E didnt get noms, that along with the inventive technology, This movie will not get a nomination because of acting, storytelling, dialogue, it will be because of CGI and Special Effects

And remind me why The Hurt Locker is getting nominated? Certainly not the acting (Renner isn't bad, but he's no better than the two leads in Avatar when you realize what they actually had to do) or the dialogue (although it's certainly better than Avatar's). Probably not because of the directing either. And there's not much of a story.

1) Locate bomb
2) Disarm bomb
3) Locate bomb
4) Disarm bomb
5) Locate bomb
6) Disarm bomb
7) Return home from war
8) Abandon your family
9) Locate bomb

Whoa, great story there.

[P@t_Mtl]

Originally Posted by toefer

And there's not much of a story.

1) Locate bomb
2) Disarm bomb
3) Locate bomb
4) Disarm bomb
5) Locate bomb
6) Disarm bomb
7) Return home from war
8) Abandon your family
9) Locate bomb

Whoa, great story there.

Who wrote that scrip? james Cameron?

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by RockChalk

Again if it gets nominated it is because of the oush by the media and making up for people being mad TDK and Wall-E didnt get noms, that along with the inventive technology, This movie will not get a nomination because of acting, storytelling, dialogue, it will be because of CGI and Special Effects

So am I sensing some backpedalling? Because I don't remember any qualifiers in your original statement.

[RockChalk]

Originally Posted by toefer

And remind me why The Hurt Locker is getting nominated? Certainly not the acting (Renner isn't bad, but he's no better than the two leads in Avatar when you realize what they actually had to do) or the dialogue (although it's certainly better than Avatar's). Probably not because of the directing either. And there's not much of a story.

1) Locate bomb
2) Disarm bomb
3) Locate bomb
4) Disarm bomb
5) Locate bomb
6) Disarm bomb
7) Return home from war
8) Abandon your family
9) Locate bomb

Whoa, great story there.

I would like to know who else on here that thinks the Actors in Avatar did as good a job as Jeremy Renner...

[Foggy]

Originally Posted by RockChalk

I would like to know who else on here that thinks the Actors in Avatar did as good a job as Jeremy Renner...

Zoe Saldana did an amazing job in Avatar, and she was CGI for all of it.

[Moviefan1203]

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

Very good analysis... specially when compared to my irrational/somewhat rational exuberance for Avatar. The way I see it, Avatar has left its mark in the movie industry. Will anyone really think of "Up in the Air" a year from now?

People remember great films, and Up in the Air is a great film. I would be very content with Up in the Air or The Hurt Locker winning as they are the two best films of the year. Unfortunately the momentum is certainly on Avatar's side right now which is sad as it would be the worst Best Picture winner in a very long time.

[Elvis]

Originally Posted by Moviefan1203

People remember great films, and Up in the Air is a great film. I would be very content with Up in the Air or The Hurt Locker winning as they are the two best films of the year. Unfortunately the momentum is certainly on Avatar's side right now which is sad as it would be the worst Best Picture winner in a very long time.

I dare say it would be the worst Best Picture winner ever.

[horseflesh]

Originally Posted by Elvis

I dare say it would be the worst Best Picture winner ever.

Definitely.

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by Elvis

I dare say it would be the worst Best Picture winner ever.

Ghost has it beat.

[Moviefan1203]

Originally Posted by Rob71

Ghost has it beat.

Ghost didn't win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by Moviefan1203

Ghost didn't win Best Picture at the Academy Awards.

Your right, had a brain fart.