So, about the Oscars...

[toef]

Based on an idea I had in one of the Avatar threads, I threw together a spreadsheet of all the Best Picture nominees from the last 30 years (movies from 1979 through 2008).

Then I added up all the Oscars they were nominated for, to see if there were any particular categories that the Best Picture movies tended to come from (e.g. Do Oscar voters consider directing, editing, and all sorts of other things when voting on BP nominees... or do they just pick the stories they like?).

This may make no sense to some people, but here goes. Using the 150 movies from the last 30 years, this is the percentage of them nominated in each of the other main Oscar categories:

88.67% -- Screenplay*

76.67% -- Director

62.67% -- Film Editing

48.00% -- Actor
46.67% -- Cinematography
45.33% -- Original Score

38.00% -- Supporting Actor
36.67% -- Art Direction
35.33% -- Supporting Actress
35.33% -- Sound**
31.33% -- Costume Design

28.67% -- Actress

10.67% -- Makeup
10.67% -- Original Song

08.00% -- Visual Effects

*There are two screenplay categories, but I merged them together. Separately they were 36.00% for Original Screenplay, and 52.67% for Adapted Screenplay

**Due to the confusion of sound Oscars (sometimes it's sound effects, sometimes it's sound, sometimes it's sound mixing, and there's usually always sound editing... I just combined them all).

~~~~~

The numbers don't necessarily prove anything about how Best Picture nominees are selected, because not all movies even qualify for each award (like special effects, or make-up, or original song).

That being said, the Best Actress category is telling, though not necessarily surprising.

And story seems like it's king.

But make of the numbers what you will.

[Elvis]

Umm didnt Up in the Air win best screenplay at the globes? Wasnt it named Best Picture buy the National Board of Review?

[toef]

Originally Posted by Elvis

Umm didnt Up in the Air win best screenplay at the globes? Wasnt it named Best Picture buy the National Board of Review?

Well that's what sparked the idea to look this stuff up (even if it's not very useful)... it seems like if a movie has a good plot, it's not questioned when it gets nominated for Best Picture. They'll ignore the slightly-above-average'ness of the rest of the movie, as long as they're sold on the story.

But since I know Avatar scares you... don't give up on it yet. Remember Titanic? It wasn't nominated for best screenplay.

I can see the Best Picture this year being a toss-up between 3 movies (Avatar, The Hurt Locker, and Up in the Air).

[Diesel]

Originally Posted by toefer

Well that's what sparked the idea to look this stuff anyway (even if it's not very useful)... it seems like if a movie has a good plot, it's not questioned when it gets nominated for Best Picture. They'll ignore the slightly-above-average'ness of the rest of the movie, as long as they're sold on the story.

But since I know Avatar scares you... don't give up on it yet. Remember Titanic? It wasn't nominated for best screenplay.

I can see the Best Picture this year being a toss-up between 3 movies (Avatar, The Hurt Locker, and Up in the Air).

But interesting to look at.

Good work putting that together Toef.

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by toefer

Well that's what sparked the idea to look this stuff anyway (even if it's not very useful)... it seems like if a movie has a good plot, it's not questioned when it gets nominated for Best Picture. They'll ignore the slightly-above-average'ness of the rest of the movie, as long as they're sold on the story.

But since I know Avatar scares you... don't give up on it yet. Remember Titanic? It wasn't nominated for best screenplay.

I can see the Best Picture this year being a toss-up between 3 movies (Avatar, The Hurt Locker, and Up in the Air).

Very good analysis... specially when compared to my irrational/somewhat rational exuberance for Avatar. The way I see it, Avatar has left its mark in the movie industry. Will anyone really think of "Up in the Air" a year from now?

[Elvis]

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

Very good analysis... specially when compared to my irrational/somewhat rational exuberance for Avatar. The way I see it, Avatar has left its mark in the movie industry. Will anyone really think of "Up in the Air" a year from now?

Hmmm good call! Does anyone really think of Annie Hall?

[Duffy12]

Originally Posted by Elvis

Hmmm good call! Does anyone really think of Annie Hall?

Of course.

They play it once a month on SpikeTV.

.

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by Elvis

Hmmm good call! Does anyone really think of Annie Hall?

Not too much now, but 32 years ago it was very popular. Much, much better than "Up in the Air" IMO.
Juno had a really cute script too.

Here's Jason with Diablo:

juno.jpg

[Moviefan1203]

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

Very good analysis... specially when compared to my irrational/somewhat rational exuberance for Avatar. The way I see it, Avatar has left its mark in the movie industry. Will anyone really think of "Up in the Air" a year from now?

People remember great films, and Up in the Air is a great film. I would be very content with Up in the Air or The Hurt Locker winning as they are the two best films of the year. Unfortunately the momentum is certainly on Avatar's side right now which is sad as it would be the worst Best Picture winner in a very long time.

[Elvis]

Originally Posted by Moviefan1203

People remember great films, and Up in the Air is a great film. I would be very content with Up in the Air or The Hurt Locker winning as they are the two best films of the year. Unfortunately the momentum is certainly on Avatar's side right now which is sad as it would be the worst Best Picture winner in a very long time.

I dare say it would be the worst Best Picture winner ever.

[jadedeath]

Originally Posted by Moviefan1203

People remember great films, and Up in the Air is a great film. I would be very content with Up in the Air or The Hurt Locker winning as they are the two best films of the year. Unfortunately the momentum is certainly on Avatar's side right now which is sad as it would be the worst Best Picture winner in a very long time.

What makes you say that Hurt Locker was one of the best films of the year?

It's engaging nonexistant plot? Or the fact that it was essentially Minesweeper the Motion Picture?

Logan

[makaveli21]

Originally Posted by Moviefan1203

People remember great films, and Up in the Air is a great film. I would be very content with Up in the Air or The Hurt Locker winning as they are the two best films of the year. Unfortunately the momentum is certainly on Avatar's side right now which is sad as it would be the worst Best Picture winner in a very long time.

Since Titanic

[JLant19]

Originally Posted by toefer

I can see the Best Picture this year being a toss-up between 3 movies (Avatar, The Hurt Locker, and Up in the Air).

I totally agree with you on this.

[Elvis]

Originally Posted by toefer

Well that's what sparked the idea to look this stuff up (even if it's not very useful)... it seems like if a movie has a good plot, it's not questioned when it gets nominated for Best Picture. They'll ignore the slightly-above-average'ness of the rest of the movie, as long as they're sold on the story.

But since I know Avatar scares you... don't give up on it yet. Remember Titanic? It wasn't nominated for best screenplay.

I can see the Best Picture this year being a toss-up between 3 movies (Avatar, The Hurt Locker, and Up in the Air).

Avatar does not scare me. I mean it won the award for best picture in 1990!

[RockChalk]

Originally Posted by toefer

Well that's what sparked the idea to look this stuff up (even if it's not very useful)... it seems like if a movie has a good plot, it's not questioned when it gets nominated for Best Picture. They'll ignore the slightly-above-average'ness of the rest of the movie, as long as they're sold on the story.

But since I know Avatar scares you... don't give up on it yet. Remember Titanic? It wasn't nominated for best screenplay.

I can see the Best Picture this year being a toss-up between 3 movies (Avatar, The Hurt Locker, and Up in the Air).

Umm...Avatar will NOT win best picture and it will only be nominated because of the mainstream push and because the general public loved it because apparently special effects can drown out poor dialogue, lazy storytelling and an agenda being pushed by Cameron and the film itself

[toef]

Originally Posted by RockChalk

Umm...Avatar will NOT win best picture and it will only be nominated because of the mainstream push and because the general public loved it because apparently special effects can drown out poor dialogue, lazy storytelling and an agenda being pushed by Cameron and the film itself

Want to make a bet?

[P@t_Mtl]

Originally Posted by toefer

Want to make a bet?

Yep! I also have that feeling that Avatar will get it, we should not be too surprise if it were to happen.

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by RockChalk

Umm...Avatar will NOT win best picture and it will only be nominated because of the mainstream push and because the general public loved it because apparently special effects can drown out poor dialogue, lazy storytelling and an agenda being pushed by Cameron and the film itself

So, hows that move to Europe looking? It was the plan if Avatar gets nominated for Best Picture, right?

[RockChalk]

Originally Posted by Rob71

So, hows that move to Europe looking? It was the plan if Avatar gets nominated for Best Picture, right?

Again if it gets nominated it is because of the oush by the media and making up for people being mad TDK and Wall-E didnt get noms, that along with the inventive technology, This movie will not get a nomination because of acting, storytelling, dialogue, it will be because of CGI and Special Effects

[Grand Bob]

Originally Posted by toefer

Based on an idea I had in one of the Avatar threads, I threw together a spreadsheet of all the Best Picture nominees from the last 30 years (movies from 1979 through 2008).

Then I added up all the Oscars they were nominated for, to see if there were any particular categories that the Best Picture movies tended to come from (e.g. Do Oscar voters consider directing, editing, and all sorts of other things when voting on BP nominees... or do they just pick the stories they like?).

This may make no sense to some people, but here goes. Using the 150 movies from the last 30 years, this is the percentage of them nominated in each of the other main Oscar categories:

08.00% -- Visual Effects

Uh-oh for Avatar; I'm still rooting for it!