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Old 01-16-2007, 08:00 PM   #1
WriteSimply WriteSimply is offline
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So from now until end of March, they have 4 million PS3s to ship. That's roughly 10 weeks. So that's 400K a week to ship worldwide. Those factory workers must be cranking already! That 400K units must already be on a slow boat to Europe and Australia!


fuad
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Old 01-16-2007, 09:30 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WriteSimply View Post
So from now until end of March, they have 4 million PS3s to ship. That's roughly 10 weeks. So that's 400K a week to ship worldwide. Those factory workers must be cranking already! That 400K units must already be on a slow boat to Europe and Australia!
With the release of some of the hot titles (games and movies), I would expect:

1 million PS/3 sell in Europe in March
1.5 million more in North America through March
1 million more in Japan through March
500K elsewhere

That's 4.0 million to go with the 1.5 million. So, sales of about 5.5 million and shipments meeting the 6 million target at the end of March.

Clearly, any big excitement could send the PS/3 back into massive shortage again.

Gary

Last edited by dialog_gvf; 01-16-2007 at 09:32 PM.
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Old 01-16-2007, 10:33 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post
With the release of some of the hot titles (games and movies), I would expect:

1 million PS/3 sell in Europe in March
1.5 million more in North America through March
1 million more in Japan through March
500K elsewhere

That's 4.0 million to go with the 1.5 million. So, sales of about 5.5 million and shipments meeting the 6 million target at the end of March.

Clearly, any big excitement could send the PS/3 back into massive shortage again.

Gary
I think they will easily be more than 1.5 million sold in Europe alone...

Last edited by mbslrm; 01-17-2007 at 12:00 AM.
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Old 01-16-2007, 10:37 PM   #4
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^^^ Not if the release date is as deep as March 19.

Gary
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Old 01-16-2007, 10:44 PM   #5
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^^^ Not if the release date is as deep as March 19.

Gary
That is why they have a shipped figure rather than a sold figure, they will probably ship 6m worldwide, but as to whether they can sell 1.5m in EU/UK alone, I don't rightly know.

Put it this way, Cardiff (where I work and live when at college) has about 300k people and we will be getting 120 in our store, the Game (EB equivalent) will be getting about 50, and other local retailers (SonyStyle, Dixons, PC World) will get another 100 between them. so that makes about 270 in a city of 300k.

The London HMVs are reporting around 10,000 between about 50-60 stores, but I expect 2,000 just for the two biggest ones on Oxford Street. When the PS2 launched the queue was about 700 people long for one of them, and back then you could purchase up to two consoles each, but now it is one per person.
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Old 01-16-2007, 10:57 PM   #6
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One per 1000 residents. Wow. 167-200 average per London HMV. Another wow.

Geez, this may be bigger than I thought.

What would you say is the feasible (able to afford it) population of Europe + UK?

Gary
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Old 01-16-2007, 11:18 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post
One per 1000 residents. Wow. 167-200 average per London HMV. Another wow.

Geez, this may be bigger than I thought.

What would you say is the feasible (able to afford it) population of Europe + UK?

Gary
Well it is very difficult to say, I can pretty much guarantee that the launch consoles will all sell out in Cardiff, our HMV has about 200 people on a list who have a deposit for a pre-order (ridiculous, I know, not the number but the system of paying to sign-up to pay for a pre-order). So the first 20 of them to come into our shop will get a pre-order, and the rest will go on opening night, as we are the biggest gaming/music retailer in the city.

London is a more difficult one to predict, with reports of 10,000 flying around I can't say whether they will all sell on opening night, because there are so many smaller shops that will be over-allocated. It could be 10,000 for all of London rather than just HMV, it would make more sense and it seems the big retailers are going to be sharing their figures on this.

Of the population that can afford it, London is an extremely affluent city so that will not be a problem and I haven't heard many people complain about the price tag, the original PS was £299 if I remember correctly and the PS2 was the same, adjusted for inflation the price of the PS3 is not actually that bad. It works out that the PS was about £420 in today's terms, and the PS2 was £370 so the price difference in real terms is not that big, which is why I along with most people aren't complaining. I think the UK should be OK. Germany might be OK, but with the current situation with recently introduced higher taxes and lower earnings reported and unemployment still at an all-time high, it is difficult to say, but having said that Playstation has traditionally done very well in the UK and Germany. Not sure about France, I just don't know enough about the situation. Spain and Italy will be very difficult to predict the income range varies so wildly in those two countries and many are still getting over the shock of introducing the €uro in their countries, so spending is down.
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Old 01-17-2007, 12:04 AM   #8
mbslrm mbslrm is offline
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Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post
One per 1000 residents. Wow. 167-200 average per London HMV. Another wow.

Geez, this may be bigger than I thought.

What would you say is the feasible (able to afford it) population of Europe + UK?

Gary
Same here, 150+ per store is pretty impressive....

1.5 million might just be possible...
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Old 01-17-2007, 01:32 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post
500K elsewhere

Gary
I think Elsewhere is called Australia. Well maybe not all 500K but I know there are some very big back orders (no one is saying exact numbers, just BIG) many from customers having put down deposits, bring it on.
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Old 01-17-2007, 02:24 PM   #10
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I think Elsewhere is called Australia. Well maybe not all 500K but I know there are some very big back orders (no one is saying exact numbers, just BIG) many from customers having put down deposits, bring it on.
Yes, and your Canada (New Zealand)

For some reason, the English speaking peoples like to pair up countries. One big, one small. England being the motherland, did it 2-3 times. (Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland)

Central and South America and Asia are elsewhere too. Do you have an estimate for Australia alone? I was trying to be very conservative and show sales would still be strong.

Gary

P.S. Is there a name for Australia + New Zealand? (Oceania?)

Last edited by dialog_gvf; 01-17-2007 at 02:26 PM.
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Old 01-17-2007, 02:47 PM   #11
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Australasia includes Australia, New Zealand, Tasmania, and many of the islands in the Southern Pacific
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Old 01-17-2007, 03:14 PM   #12
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Australasia includes Australia, New Zealand, Tasmania, and many of the islands in the Southern Pacific
NO more geography in this thread. However I hate to inform you (and mainland Australia) Tasmania is a state of Australia, exactly the same as Texas, Arizona etc is to the US
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Old 01-17-2007, 03:24 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by Blue View Post
NO more geography in this thread. However I hate to inform you (and mainland Australia) Tasmania is a state of Australia, exactly the same as Texas, Arizona etc is to the US
My bad.

Do you have a sense how many stores and how many per store to expect in Australia?

Gary
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Old 01-17-2007, 03:04 PM   #14
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P.S. Is there a name for Australia + New Zealand? (Oceania?)
Yep the name is Australia or New Zealand. Oceania refers to a number of the Pacific Islands as well (not sure exactly which ones but like Solomon Islands and Fiji). I'm not so certain about this pairing up thing either. There is fierce rivalry between the two countries. Luckily on the sporting field, but it's take no prisoners. They make Roo jokes we make sheep jokes. The only time we join up (work very closely together) if there is a really, really good war on. The last was WW2 (I hope we never join up again)
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Old 01-16-2007, 09:35 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by WriteSimply View Post
So from now until end of March, they have 4 million PS3s to ship. That's roughly 10 weeks. So that's 400K a week to ship worldwide. Those factory workers must be cranking already! That 400K units must already be on a slow boat to Europe and Australia!


fuad
I think the 6m number includes Europe as my HMV (where I now work) has the PS3 slated in at March 19th, and they have said 6m by the end of March, and our store, a major one has been told we will have 16-20 for pre-order, and 100 for opening night.

So I think the number shipped to EU will be quite large if my store is going to get about 120. I would expect around 300k just to the UK.
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Old 01-16-2007, 10:23 PM   #16
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So I think the number shipped to EU will be quite large if my store is going to get about 120. I would expect around 300k just to the UK.
Just so I don't commit faux pas. Can I assume by the statement above that the British now generally consider themselves to be Europeans? Or was that choice of EU deliberate?

I'll tell you, never call a Canadian an American. Despite it meaning person of the Americas over there (correct?), it does NOT have that meaning here. However, North American is perfectly acceptable.



Gary

BTW, HMV is a major retailer in these parts too.

Last edited by dialog_gvf; 01-16-2007 at 10:26 PM.
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Old 01-16-2007, 10:37 PM   #17
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Just so I don't commit faux pas. Can I assume by the statement above that the British now generally consider themselves to be Europeans? Or was that choice of EU deliberate?

I'll tell you, never call a Canadian an American. Despite it meaning person of the Americas over there (correct?), it does NOT have that meaning here. However, North American is perfectly acceptable.



Gary

BTW, HMV is a major retailer in these parts too.
I am only European once every two years, when the Golf Ryder Cup is on, otherwise I am English. In the same way Canadians like being called Canadians, the we have a big sense of national pride.

AFAIK, American is just a person from the USA, Canadians get their own distinction, don't worry .

As far as Britain goes, it may cease to exist in the next few months, so soon it will be England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Lots of local turmoil, but that is for a different discussion.
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