Is M$ playing the industry?

[CptGreedle]

As I've heard people say before, Micro$oft has little to gain from HD-DVD sales, they make their dough with direct downloads via XBOX 360 live.
I do not doubt that this may be their agenda, but another thought occurs to me.
First we hear Spielberg decides to keep his films Blu-ray. Then we see Paramount's Blu-rays get "delayed" indefinitely. Now we see Paramount go HD-DVD exclusive with an M$ deal. And now rumors that Universal may switch to neutral.

Coincidence? Perhaps. But I think there is more to it. Usually rumors of such events happen within the industry faster than outside it, and it may be that the winds of change were blowing at caught the ears of some of the big names.

Spielberg may have suspected, after all he chose not to release his films on HD-DVD with universal and now his films are exempt from the Paramount payoff. But either way he made sure his films would not be released on HD-DVD. Michael Bay's decision seems completely reactionary, I doubt he knew anything before or he would have done something sooner.
What I think happened is Micro$oft got word that the only major supporter for HD-DVD, being Universal, was thinking of finally backing out, or at least they saw that the industry's trend to support Blu-ray in sales would finally overcome Universal and they would not be able to last another year as HD-DVD exclusive and would have to go neutral. This would kill the format (which they support), and end the war, (a war which is good for their download business). So Micro$oft made a desperate move to keep the format alive longer, through 2 holiday seasons, by paying off another neutral studio. Warner was obviously very Pro-neutral, even going so far as planning to release a format friendly disc next year that will run on both players. The biggest and obvious choice was Paramount, which was already pro-HD-DVD once before. By paying them off, they make sure that if Universal DOES go neutral, there is at least one studio still supporting HD-DVD that is bound by contract to do so. That will keep the war going. That will keep their business growing in the background.
Meanwhile FOX and MGM release their titles which balance the playing field of the war and once again keep Blu-ray stronger, but at the loss of Paramount. Their announcement seems to have been well timed, perhaps too well. He have been waiting for this for weeks and only now do they announce it? I think it was planned that they would do this as a reaction to Paramount.
Either way, M$ wins! If HD-DVD wins out, M$ backed HD-DVD, M$ will get the dough. If they both fail, M$ has made a killing from downloads. If Blu-ray wins, M$ will have delayed the victory by another year and made head way to fight the format n their own!

This is all speculation since Universal has made no such announcement yet, but those rumors had to start somewhere...