A future for packaged media?

[Azumi]

Paid, Penton:

I have a question in the broad sense of the word over the events in the past few days.

Paramount's announcement has been met with a lot of puzzlement by the people at large, because it's not a business win but rather the withdrawal of a commodity from a big chunk of the audience. It's therefore legitimate to wonder if the consumer's preference still *accounts to something* in today's world (especially since Blu-ray is leading the sales), or if people are shown nothing but contempt by Studios who can flip-flop as they see fit.

Most of us realize that there's more than meets the eye behind the format war. But as the Warner's rumor grow stronger, we can ask ourselves if these Studios are totally disconnected from the reality and risk to alienate the very consumers they're after.

If we take the most vocal fans and detractors out of the equation, all we see out there, is that people DO NOT UNDERSTAND why the war is still on and keep getting fueled by business wins that treat people like simple statistics.

If Warner becomes exclusive to HD DVD, perhaps Blu-ray will still win the war. Or perhaps the red pill will win. But isn't there also a tiny possibility that consumers at large will just get fed up, and shun the high def formats? What happens to the Studios then if they end up losing this market and find themselves stuck with the diminishing returns of DVD and the uncharted territories of the VOD?

If the high def market fails, it'll become one day a subject for business schools, where people will exactly see the turning points where decisive actions would have made the difference, and wonder what made film studios run blindfolded towards the cliff.

Don't studio executives and creative people see this danger looming? Do they read the papers and meet real people aside from valets and gardeners?

Paid, Penton, I'm sorry if these words are a bit brisk -- they're not aimed at your efforts. I feel that it would be great if the upper levels (within the BDA members, but also at Warners) are made aware of these concerns.

Also, lots of good people out there gave Blu-ray the lead through their efforts and their wallets. Although that might seem naive, people on the street would like to think that their voices - and the numbers of 300 - still count.

In order to end this post with a purposeful question, Steve Jobs is someone who has a big influence in Hollywood... and they've been sitting on the board for three years. Isn't it time that you use this weapon and ask him to pay a visit at Warners and at the 5 or 6 big market-turning companies in the field?

Thank you for listening and sorry for the long post.

[paidgeek]

Originally Posted by Azumi

Paid, Penton:

I have a question in the broad sense of the word over the events in the past few days.

Paramount's announcement has been met with a lot of puzzlement by the people at large, because it's not a business win but rather the withdrawal of a commodity from a big chunk of the audience. It's therefore legitimate to wonder if the consumer's preference still *accounts to something* in today's world (especially since Blu-ray is leading the sales), or if people are shown nothing but contempt by Studios who can flip-flop as they see fit.

Most of us realize that there's more than meets the eye behind the format war. But as the Warner's rumor grow stronger, we can ask ourselves if these Studios are totally disconnected from the reality and risk to alienate the very consumers they're after.

If we take the most vocal fans and detractors out of the equation, all we see out there, is that people DO NOT UNDERSTAND why the war is still on and keep getting fueled by business wins that treat people like simple statistics.

If Warner becomes exclusive to HD DVD, perhaps Blu-ray will still win the war. Or perhaps the red pill will win. But isn't there also a tiny possibility that consumers at large will just get fed up, and shun the high def formats? What happens to the Studios then if they end up losing this market and find themselves stuck with the diminishing returns of DVD and the uncharted territories of the VOD?

If the high def market fails, it'll become one day a subject for business schools, where people will exactly see the turning points where decisive actions would have made the difference, and wonder what made film studios run blindfolded towards the cliff.

Don't studio executives and creative people see this danger looming? Do they read the papers and meet real people aside from valets and gardeners?

Paid, Penton, I'm sorry if these words are a bit brisk -- they're not aimed at your efforts. I feel that it would be great if the upper levels (within the BDA members, but also at Warners) are made aware of these concerns.

Also, lots of good people out there gave Blu-ray the lead through their efforts and their wallets. Although that might seem naive, people on the street would like to think that their voices - and the numbers of 300 - still count.

In order to end this post with a purposeful question, Steve Jobs is someone who has a big influence in Hollywood... and they've been sitting on the board for three years. Isn't it time that you use this weapon and ask him to pay a visit at Warners and at the 5 or 6 big market-turning companies in the field?

Thank you for listening and sorry for the long post.

I think your post is insightful and I agree with it.

I am equally concerned that we are seeing the opportunity for HD packaged media severly harmed by the actions of Paramount. What's more, I think that events have played out to the satisfaction of MS who have stated clearly that they do not think the future is packaged media. I think this is straighforward case of their working on a self fullfilling prophecy. Ask yourself if the advent of electronically distributed music has been good for consumers. We know it has not been good for the music industry, but who has benefited?

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by paidgeek

Ask yourself if the advent of electronically distributed music has been good for consumers. We know it has not been good for the music industry, but who has benefited?

Well, I think the answer is yes to that. But, music is very different. For one thing, the electronic delivery of music finally allowed cherry picking. People wanted to buy a few tracks, and not all of them. They created their own singles, rather overpaying for what the music studio decided.

But, for audiophiles it has been a disaster. The HD audio recordings never caught on as the consumer embraced lossy.

A movie, on the other hand, is a single indivisible entity. It's more like an double-album, but one that the consumer ALWAYS wants to play in its entirety.

Electronic delivery is inevitable. And I'm sure BD-Live will be offering increasing amounts of it. Some more esoteric titles may not be justifiable otherwise. But, the enthusiast wants a foundation of quality. They don't want product made with built-in massive compromises designed to fit the product into the narrow pipe, or bandwidth caps.

What is your take?

Gary

[Azumi]

Paid, Penton, thanks for both your answers.

Originally Posted by paidgeek

I am equally concerned that we are seeing the opportunity for HD packaged media severly harmed by the actions of Paramount. What's more, I think that events have played out to the satisfaction of MS who have stated clearly that they do not think the future is packaged media. I think this is straighforward case of their working on a self fullfilling prophecy. Ask yourself if the advent of electronically distributed music has been good for consumers. We know it has not been good for the music industry, but who has benefited?

Yes, but unlike the music companies, film studios still have a window of opportunity to act.

Some of you must have read that story on Variety that said the combined video sales on iTunes and all the other VOD platforms since inception, didn't even match the number of copies that the DVD of POTC2 sold *on the first day*.

If this data is true, one doesn't need a MBA to figure out that it'll take a significant amount of time before VOD achieves critical mass, and even more before it becomes a habit among consumers.

As an individual, I don't even see packaged media and VOD as competitors, and I can think of several developing countries and human behaviors where packaged media is a commodity that cannot be replaced.

In twenty years, things may be different. But for the time being, studios have a good opportunity to expand once again the road that has been paved by VHS and DVD. I only hope that Warner and the powers that be get that.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by Azumi

Yes, but unlike the music companies, film studios still have a window of opportunity to act.

Some of you must have read that story on Variety that said the combined video sales on iTunes and all the other VOD platforms since inception, didn't even match the number of copies that the DVD of POTC2 sold *on the first day*.

If this data is true, one doesn't need a MBA to figure out that it'll take a significant amount of time before VOD achieves critical mass, and even more before it becomes a habit among consumers.

As an individual, I don't even see packaged media and VOD as competitors, and I can think of several developing countries and human behaviors where packaged media is a commodity that cannot be replaced.

In twenty years, things may be different. But for the time being, studios have a good opportunity to expand once again the road that has been paved by VHS and DVD. I only hope that Warner and the powers that be get that.

I have said it time and again, the movie industry is very lucky as it is always one-step behind the music industry.

They have the chance to learn from mistakes made by the music industry re: piracy, digital distribution, high resolution media etc...

Unfortunately some of the higher ups didn't count on the disruptive and defensive practices of Microsoft, in the same way that Sony got caught out by Nintendo and the Wii this time around in the games console market, the movie industry is going to get caught out by Microsoft and the Xbox Live digital distribution platform. I would hate to have to rent my HD movies from MS, I resent having to use their OS for PC gaming, stupid BioShock, the less MS effect high definition media the better.