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Image from: Life of Pi (2012)
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Cassettes took over from vinyl because of their size, portability, and the recordability factor. CD's took over from tapes because of the advantages of the format (and because it was awhile before they were easily recordable, cassettes held on for quite a long time). CDs didn't start to disappear until the need for the media itself was supplanted.<br />
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VHS only disapeared so quickly because again it was a complete format shift - with all the advantages of disc based media coupled with the invention of the DVR. But Blu-ray still is nowhere near DVD sales, and the thing is - it's not "old" people who collect DVD. I know so few people who actually buy Blu-rays, in any age group. Most people don't give a flip about the image difference. <br />
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UHD is going to be a much, much harder sell than even Blu-ray had to deal with because like Blu-ray, the only change is in image quality, not anything practical (if anything, with the Java, need for player updates, etc. - Blu-ray actually has disadvantages over DVD in that arena). And while mathematically the boost is pretty great, in practice - if people don't already care about Blu-ray over DVD quality, they really aren't going to be all over UHD.<br />
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There is no practical reason for it to take over anything, and if people were just out for higher quality, they would have adopted Blu-ray and we wouldn't be a decade into the format with such relatively low software sales compared to what it was supposed to "replace".<br />
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They aren't going to cost much more to [I]manufacture[/I], but no pricing schemes have been announced. I have a feeling they are going to be significantly more expensive than Blu-rays at retail.<br />
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