Oh noes teh sky is falling!

[Arch Stanton]

Originally Posted by yoniweisberg

One thing which I can't quite get my head around, and would love to see what your opinions are...

Obviously streaming, and digital has massively changed the music industry. As someone who makes music videos as part of my living I can attest to that being a part of the industry which has seen budgets cut beyond recognition from where they were 10 years ago, and a lightyear from 20 years ago. This is just one area in which the money has all but dried up, and I'm simply using that as an example to give a picture of the larger industry. Of course, the reasons behind this aren't just limited to physical sales - the decline of music channels on TV has also played a part.

But the phsycial sales aspect is a clear area where music was ahead of film but we can see a sharp drop off in recent years. Using Avengers vs Avengers: Age of Ultron as examples (figures from thenumbers.com). The Avengers grossed $623,000,000 in 2012, and made £232,000,000 in home sales, flash forward to 2015 and Age of Ultron made $76,000,000 - that's a staggering drop off, and something which will noway near be made up for in streaming licensing, meaning that money is being taken out of the industry, and I can only imagine it's far worse the further down the ladder you go.

I guess my overall question is when the physical sales money dries up, and I would imagine that something like 75% of physical media revenue will have disappeared in the next 5-10 years, what trickle down effects do you see it having on the industry as a whole?

I'm with you on this - we're in for a very interesting ride. I have no idea what's going to happen but the model is going to almost certainly be reworked drastically.

[StingingVelvet]

Originally Posted by yoniweisberg

But the phsycial sales aspect is a clear area where music was ahead of film but we can see a sharp drop off in recent years. Using Avengers vs Avengers: Age of Ultron as examples (figures from thenumbers.com). The Avengers grossed $623,000,000 in 2012, and made £232,000,000 in home sales, flash forward to 2015 and Age of Ultron made $76,000,000 - that's a staggering drop off, and something which will noway near be made up for in streaming licensing, meaning that money is being taken out of the industry, and I can only imagine it's far worse the further down the ladder you go.

I guess my overall question is when the physical sales money dries up, and I would imagine that something like 75% of physical media revenue will have disappeared in the next 5-10 years, what trickle down effects do you see it having on the industry as a whole?

I think we're already seeing it really. The theatrical run is the place where revenue remains lucrative, but to appeal in the theater you have to be a huge blockbuster that appeals across age groups and demographics. That's why most blockbusters today feel generic and endlessly preview tested. You can still make a smaller movie and get a tidy little profit of course, like Bad Moms, but it's a pittance compared to the old days, and television seems to have a lot more rewards for small budget comedies and dramas now-a-days. The "golden age of TV" isn't all about high quality shows, it's also about theaters more and more eschewing smaller scale productions and genres.

If streaming new-release movies still in theaters keeps gaining steam though I could see that becoming a huge issues, and I'm not sure what the movie industry would do without that first-run revenue stream.

I don't know much about music but it's the concert industry that keeps the money flowing now, for the most part, isn't it? I know Adele can sell 3 million records but for the most part I have read it's concert revenue that makes the whole thing worthwhile. Streaming music isn't really bringing in money yet, the hope is that it does eventually down the road.

Video games are actually the hardest hit by piracy, and it almost destroyed the PC gaming industry. They have no alternate revenue stream like theaters and concerts, they relied entirely on sales. They have adjusted to piracy by embracing more online services and manufacturing convenience benefits, plus micro-transactions for added revenue. Consumers in that hobby complain about these things, but without them the entire hobby probably would have disintegrated.

[yoniweisberg]

Originally Posted by mredman

As of now Blu-Ray is UP in sales 9.3% this year.

Is that up in terms of units sold or revenue? Do you have a link to this info? Not doubting you but would just love to have a look at the figures.

Originally Posted by StingingVelvet

I think we're already seeing it really. The theatrical run is the place where revenue remains lucrative, but to appeal in the theater you have to be a huge blockbuster that appeals across age groups and demographics. That's why most blockbusters today feel generic and endlessly preview tested. You can still make a smaller movie and get a tidy little profit of course, like Bad Moms, but it's a pittance compared to the old days, and television seems to have a lot more rewards for small budget comedies and dramas now-a-days. The "golden age of TV" isn't all about high quality shows, it's also about theaters more and more eschewing smaller scale productions and genres.

Even after years of having studied the film industry, and really being passionate about box office gross etc. I still feel like I don't have a strong enough grasp on how much money something needs to make. I know the rule of thumb used to be that a film basically needed to make 110% of it's budget to be in the black (taking in to account percentage from distributors and exhibitors), but I also know that film budgets don't take in to account marketing costs - which must be astronomical.

Originally Posted by StingingVelvet

If streaming new-release movies still in theaters keeps gaining steam though I could see that becoming a huge issues, and I'm not sure what the movie industry would do without that first-run revenue stream.

I don't know much about music but it's the concert industry that keeps the money flowing now, for the most part, isn't it? I know Adele can sell 3 million records but for the most part I have read it's concert revenue that makes the whole thing worthwhile. Streaming music isn't really bringing in money yet, the hope is that it does eventually down the road.

It's a funny one this, because in the hey day of CD sales etc touring actually generated next to no money for 99% of artists, but were simply done to drive media sales. Now I beleive you're right, and it's the other way around - but I think the difference being for music not all tickets are created equal. A small band will sell a few hundred tickets for £10, where as Beyonce will sell 20,000 at £50. Imagine if films were to ever do the same... I think the truth is the whole industry right now is killing smaller artists in every which way.

Originally Posted by StingingVelvet

Video games are actually the hardest hit by piracy, and it almost destroyed the PC gaming industry. They have no alternate revenue stream like theaters and concerts, they relied entirely on sales. They have adjusted to piracy by embracing more online services and manufacturing convenience benefits, plus micro-transactions for added revenue. Consumers in that hobby complain about these things, but without them the entire hobby probably would have disintegrated.

I didn't know that, I actually (ignorantly) thought that PC gaming was in a boom period because of services like steam.

[50strat54]

Originally Posted by EVERYONE LIES

Obviously you're a Jimmy Stewart fan too. Dear Bridgette in available from Germany region free

thanks! I'll look into it from Amazon Germany.

[flyry]

Originally Posted by mredman

As of now Blu-Ray is UP in sales 9.3% this year.

I bet Force Awakens and Zootopia account for 98% of the sales

[PeterTHX]

Originally Posted by bigshot

People are naturally lazy. Downloading movies is a pain. I'm sure most people just browse through Netflix until they find something to watch the same way they snap channels on TV.

That's why they get a DVD-R or flash drive copy from someone they know.

[mredman]

Originally Posted by yoniweisberg

Is that up in terms of units sold or revenue? Do you have a link to this info? Not doubting you but would just love to have a look at the figures.

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...&postcount=339

Take a look at this thread to see clearly. Blu-Ray is having a fantastic year

[wvuwhat]

I wish physical media was easy to unload. It's not.

I've gone with UV-HDX.

[yoniweisberg]

Originally Posted by mredman

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...&postcount=339

Take a look at this thread to see clearly. Blu-Ray is having a fantastic year

Thanks! That's great, although I think the fact that the overall home video market is down 6.3% is worrying in a year when the first Star Wars movie in a decade was released.

[mar3o]

Originally Posted by yoniweisberg

Thanks! That's great, although I think the fact that the overall home video market is down 6.3% is worrying in a year when the first Star Wars movie in a decade was released.

Not everyone is in a rush to pay $30 for a movie on home video they just spent $30 on in the theatre 3 months ago. They just saw it. I'm that way. I'd rather buy great new catalog releases I haven't seen in 20 years, and I can always pick up the latest blockbusters down the road when I'm in the mood to see them again. Home video releases come out so quickly now that people don't feel a need to rush out and buy it because they just saw it. Of course everyone is different but I think this does factor into things.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by wvuwhat

I wish physical media was easy to unload. It's not.

I've gone with UV-HDX.

Because that's easy to unload?

[HD Goofnut]

I just thought I'd give an update for my backup process. I am now halfway through the Fs. Over the last few years I have put my favorites, regardless of their place in the alphabet, on three different drives that are about 1.5 TBs each. I started backing up the rest of my collection a couple months ago and have ran out of space after filling up a 6 TB and 8 TB drive. I plan to get a few more 8 TBs drives to back up the rest of my collection over the next several months.

[happydood]

Originally Posted by HD Goofnut

I just thought I'd give an update for my backup process. I am now halfway through the Fs. Over the last few years I have put my favorites, regardless of their place in the alphabet, on three different drives that are about 1.5 TBs each. I started backing up the rest of my collection a couple months ago and have ran out of space after filling up a 6 TB and 8 TB drive. I plan to get a few more 8 TBs drives to back up the rest of my collection over the next several months.

I really want to do this. Work, creative pursuits, and my two year old keep it from happening. I need to get on it, though, since he's decided things only have use if they can be thrown.

[HD Goofnut]

Originally Posted by happydood

I really want to do this. Work, creative pursuits, and my two year old keep it from happening. I need to get on it, though, since he's decided things only have use if they can be thrown.

Large hard drives have never been cheaper. I use nothing but Western Digital and the 8 TB drives have been running $250 for the last few months. Seagate's 8 TB drive is slightly cheaper, but less reliable.

I also figured out recently that VLC will show subtitles with .m2ts files so I started ripping my foreign films as well since VLC is free. For some odd reason PowerDVD does not read the subtitle tracks with a .m2ts file.

[meremortal]

I'd imagine physical media is doing just fine for newer Hollywood releases and cult catalog favorites. But everything in between is probably a tough sale at this point. And if a major retailer like Wal Mart suddenly decided to drop all physical media to go all-in with Vudu, I'm sure that would shake up the industry in a massive way. Folks here seem reasonably loyal in their support for disc based formats, but I don't know if the upcoming generations will adopt that mindset.

[mredman]

If a harddrive crashes all of it is gone. Had a 500 MB harddrive and it crashed. Every movie and tv show and pics from vacation and concert was gone.

[koover]

Originally Posted by HD Goofnut

I just thought I'd give an update for my backup process. I am now halfway through the Fs. Over the last few years I have put my favorites, regardless of their place in the alphabet, on three different drives that are about 1.5 TBs each. I started backing up the rest of my collection a couple months ago and have ran out of space after filling up a 6 TB and 8 TB drive. I plan to get a few more 8 TBs drives to back up the rest of my collection over the next several months.

I'd love to do this but the expense would be outrageous. I understand my current investment is already huge and what you're doing is a really intelligent thing to do, so I really should follow suite. But man, it would take me years and I have double the titles you're backing up. More power to ya brother!

[I KEEL YOU]

Man... I wish I had taken a photo of the physical media section at one of the bigger local supermarkets here every now and then. Over the past 5 years alone it went from two huge double sided shelves, then to a single double sided shelf, then to only a single side of a shelf and a bargain bin, and eventually to a bargain bin alone. And the other day when I went there there was nothing, nada. Zero physical media. It would've been a really depressing montage to look at for a physical media fan.

[I KEEL YOU]

Originally Posted by mredman

If a harddrive crashes all of it is gone. Had a 500 MB harddrive and it crashed. Every movie and tv show and pics from vacation and concert was gone.

Samsung have a really small 2TB solid state external hard drive on the market. Those are supposed to be way less failure prone than the ordinary hard drives with moving parts. Anything with moving parts is prone to break down. The problem is that the SSD hard drives with any substantial space on them are RIDICULOUSLY expensive as of now. That 2TB external SSD Samsung hard drive is $710 on Amazon right now!

I'll wait until the prices become reasonable and until then hope and pray that my current 2TB Western Digital My Passport doesn't break down. I try to do all the right things that will expand its lifespan, always "safely remove" it, only plug it in when I'm using it, have it on one single spot and not carry it and shake it around much, etc. Hopefully that will make it last for some time until external SSD drives that have plenty of space become affordable.

[HD Goofnut]

Originally Posted by koover

I'd love to do this but the expense would be outrageous. I understand my current investment is already huge and what you're doing is a really intelligent thing to do, so I really should follow suite. But man, it would take me years and I have double the titles you're backing up. More power to ya brother!

It's quicker than you think. At USB 3.0 (10-15 Mbps) a typical 30-35 GB title will take about 40-50 minutes to rip.

The only downside is I can't rip films that are seamlessly branched between two versions because they are usually about 20 different files. However, for most of those at least have them on VUDU.