Box Office Showdown (10/6-10/8) Blade Runner 2049, My Little Pony, Mountain Bet. Us

[Jennifer Lawrence Fan]

Originally Posted by Chaotic

Huh?

I mean giving all 3 A- minuses. I've seen the one and certainly wasn't A-min worthy. More like C+ to me. But again that's just me.

[Underworld54]

Originally Posted by Suntory_Times

That isn't a disaster if it holds well. It is really to early to say. Wait until the opening weekend is in then see how it holds. It could hold really well due to how well it seems to have been received, but it could also burn through all its demand as the fan base may have all shown up immediately for it. Which may result in it being front loaded and large weekly drops.

That and in the current cinema climate, we need to see how it is doing internationally. America is still important but you can have a film do no business there and still be a massive hit. Times have changed and we need to wait and see how this plays out.

Those are weekend estimates so it'll be close to that. It's also not doing great in France.

[Suntory_Times]

Originally Posted by Underworld54

Those are weekend estimates so it'll be close to that. It's also not doing great in France.

Remember Avatar was being considered a relative flop after it's first weekend. I personally suspect Blade Runner will drop heavily, but my point is simply that it isn't really possible to tell yet. I hope it does well because I would like to see more films like this, and i'd like the financial risk for those who backed it to pay of. Not because I care if they make money, but because i'd like to see more films like this being made.

The film really needs to hit that $500 million worldwide mark (assuming that a large portion isn't made in China as whilst that box office is large, it is worth considerably less then if that same money is made elsewhere generally speaking). Can it do that, I can't say. The key will be it's legs. $35 million is enough in America for and opening weekend if it holds well. However if most of the demand is burnt up in the opening weekend like happened with Alien Covenant then things could be not so great for it financially speaking.

[Underworld54]

Avatar is a poor comparison.

[Adam_ME]

Originally Posted by Underworld54

Blade Runner is flopping, must have been very front loaded. It went from an estimate of $44M-$46M to an estimate now of $36.5M.

I knew Blade Runner 2049 was in trouble when I left the theater yesterday afternoon. The audience was subdued, the running time was too long, and the movie was good but not great. Plus the last 20 minutes instead of tying up loose ends introduced what seemed like a whole new plot thread for a 3rd movie.

I admire their willingness to make a sequel 35 years later and spend so much money doing so. But I think it may have been doomed at the box office, and a few creative missteps didn't help.

[Underworld54]

$12.7M Friday is the official studio number, looks like $34M is the absolute ceiling for the OW.

[Suntory_Times]

Originally Posted by Underworld54

Avatar is a poor comparison.

It is a film people where calling a flop after its opening weekend. How well a film does or doesn't hold makes a large difference.

[paradise.lost]

Originally Posted by Suntory_Times

It is a film people where calling a flop after its opening weekend. How well a film does or doesn't hold makes a large difference.

Difference is Avatar had a lot more going in its favor. BR 2049 doesn't have a single of those things while being the better movie, which unfortunately makes no difference to the general public.

[Cremildo]

Young people just aren't going. That's a big part of the problem.

[Underworld54]

Originally Posted by Cremildo

Young people just aren't going. That's a big part of the problem.

Why should they? They weren't alive for the original.

[Cremildo]

Originally Posted by Underworld54

Why should they? They weren't alive for the original.

Neither was I.

It's one of my most anticipated movies of the year.

[Batman1980]

Ha ha my little pony is tanking.

[ArmyOfDarknessAW]

Originally Posted by Underworld54

Why should they? They weren't alive for the original.

What does that have to do with anything? I was born in 87 and I was there first showing Thursday. A massive amount of Star Wars fans were not alive for the original. Hell a good chunk of younger Star Wars fans weren't alive for episode 1.

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[Cremildo]

[Underworld54]

Originally Posted by ArmyOfDarknessAW

What does that have to do with anything? I was born in 87 and I was there first showing Thursday. A massive amount of Star Wars fans were not alive for the original. Hell a good chunk of younger Star Wars fans weren't alive for episode 1.

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It's a niche film base, Star Wars is not. Shit, I just watched BR for the first time ever about a month ago, it's not everyone's thing. Not a lot of appeal for a younger audience.

[ArmyOfDarknessAW]

Originally Posted by Underworld54

It's a niche film base, Star Wars is not. Shit, I just watched BR for the first time ever about a month ago, it's not everyone's thing. Not a lot of appeal for a younger audience.

All of what you said has nothing to do with if someone was alive of not for the original. I agree that this is more of a niche fanbase. Just saying being alive for the original means absolutely nothing.

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[Suntory_Times]

Originally Posted by Underworld54

Why should they? They weren't alive for the original.

There's this small franchise you may have heard of called Star Wars. Much of that audience was not alive for the original either.

[Chaotic]

So much for tracking better than mad max, the Martian and Gravity.

[Underworld54]

Originally Posted by Suntory_Times

There's this small franchise you may have heard of called Star Wars. Much of that audience was not alive for the original either.

Right but Star Wars has always been saturated to the point it's impossible to forget about. Blade Runner has a film then disappearshe then reappears with a new film 35 years later. Unless you're a fan it's not going to be on anyone's radar.

[Cremildo]

Originally Posted by Suntory_Times

Much of that audience was not alive for the original either.

Neither were the tons of young girls who flocked to watch this year's Beauty and the Beast.