Artic Sea Ice

[U4K61]

No single weather event can be attributed to climate change, but a warming climate does load the dice in favor of heavier extreme precipitation events. (Dr. Jeff Masters)



Arctic Sea Ice & Climate Change

2008
So what do you think is going to happen to the polar ice this year? As global temps are on the rise, it appears to be on it's way to a record low. CK the link: NSIDC. Go to the icon in the lower right named Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis to see the current ice extent. It's updated daily. The blue line is what is happening now, the dotted line is the record low of 2007.

2009
As we address climate change, we are running out of easy to get fossil fuels and are forced to draw more from unconventional ones. "Shell and others want to turn to tar, and extract oil from coal. But these are very carbon-intensive processes, and will deepen the climate problem" (Dr. Legget). Indeed, "The tar sands of Canada will make a nonsense of any climate change agreement" (Steve Connor).

2010 - The Alberta Tar Sands
"The reserves - 171.8 billion barrels - 13% of the global total and are about what Iraq and Russia have, combined...But it isn't really oil, it's bitumen... Producing a barrel of oil... creates more then twice the emissions of old-school drilling" (Daniel Gross, Newsweek 14 June 2010, p29) "The need for a proposed $7 billion [2000-mile Keystone XL pipeline] that they say will bring "dirty oil" from Canadian oil sands to U.S. refineries and significantly increase the country's reliance on fossil fuels." (Ayesha Rascoe)

Anthropogenic Forcing

The principle pollutants

• Carbon Dioxide, 34.1%
• Methane, 26.7%
• Black Carbon, 11.9%
• Halocarbons, 7.8%
• CO and VOC's, 6.7%
• Nitrus Oxide, 3.8%

Water Vapor Feedback 36 - 72%
During the fall under a clear night sky in New England, the temperature drops as the heat of the day escapes into space, giving way to a frosty morning. But if there is cloud cover, the heat is trapped and the temperature remains elevated. Classic example of the green house effect of water vapor.

The Clausius-Clapeyron relation states that air can hold more water vapor per unit volume when it warms. It is a dynamic equilibrium between both the vapor phase and liquid phase. The equilibrium is where gas the same number of gas molecules are combining and condensing to form a liquid as there are liquid phase molecules evaporating to form a gas. When the temperature increases, the molecules in both the liquid and gas phases have more kinetic energy making it more difficult for gas-phase molecules to condense to form a liquid and easier for liquid-phase molecules to evaporate, so to balance out, the concentration of water vapor increases until a new equilibrium is reached. Currently water vapor is about 2% of the atmosphere.

The positive heat-amplifying effect of water vapor will double the climate warming caused by increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (Andrew Dessler). So if there is a 1°C change caused by CO2, the water vapor will cause the temperature to go up another 1°C. If the Earth warms 1.8 °F, the increase in water vapor will trap an extra 2 Watts of energy per square meter (NASA).

"The increase of global ocean temperatures of 0.5°C over the past 50 years has put 4% more water vapor unto the atmosphere since 1970" (Masters)



CO2 9 - 26%
Joseph Fourier, 1820s, observed that gases in the atmosphere might trap the heat received from the Sun. It was noted that if the earth were an ideal back body averaging 150 million km from the sun, it would have a temperature of about 5.3 °C. However, the Earth reflects about 28 - 30% of the incoming sunlight, so the effective temperature should only be −18 or −19 °C. But it was found that the average surface temperature of the earth is about 15°C or about 33°C above what it should be because of the infrared absorption of water vapo r and CO2. Most of the short UV, visible, and near IR radiation from the sun passes through the atmosphere without being absorbed. 50% is taken in at the Earth's surface which re-radiates it as longer IR thermal radiation which then gets absorbed in the atmosphere. Some makes its way back to the ground as downward long wave radiation, reducing the amount of heat that escapes into space. This is called the natural greenhouse effect.

Svante Arrhenius, 1896, notes that fossil fuel combustion may eventually result in enhanced global warming. G.S. Callendar, 1938, observed that the level of carbon dioxide was climbing and raising global temperature. Currently, CO2 is about one in every 4000 molecules of air. Before 1750, before James Watt invented the steam engine, CO2 in the atmosphere was 280ppm. By 1900 it was 300ppm. Today - 390ppm. Yearly CO2 emissions are now at around 30 Gt. 20 years from now, it's projected to be 50 Gt.

The Keeling Curve
In 1958, Dr. Keeling developed a curve showing the increase of CO2 concentration, parts per million by volume(ppmv), from measurements made at the top of Mauna Loa in Hawai at 3,397 meters. It has been monitored continuously since then. Before the industrial era and during much of the Holocene, atmospheric CO2 concentration was between 275 and 280 parts ppmv. By the year 2000 it had risen to 367ppmv, and by 2008, 385ppmv; an annual increase of about 2ppm per year. The rate of change is abut 0.3% a year. Annual 5ppmv dips in the graph are caused when trees leaf out and farmlands green, where growth and photosynthesis take some of the CO2 out of the air. When they decay in the fall, some of the CO2 is re-released back into the atmosphere. To keep climate change below 2°C, it is calculated that we must keep the level below 450ppm, a difficult proposition considering the rate of increase we have today.

Anual mean growth rate of CO2 at Maunoa Loa

Each Country's Share of CO2 Emissions
Country, Total Emissions (Million Metric Tons of CO2), Per Capita Emissions (Tons/Capita)

1. China, 6534, 4.91
2. United States, 5833, 19.18
3. Russia, 1729, 12.29
4. India, 1495, 1.31
5. Japan, 1214, 9.54
6. Germany, 829, 10.06
7. Canada, 574, 17.27
8. United Kingdom, 572, 9.38
9. South Korea, 542, 11.21
10. Iran, 511, 7.76

Data: Union of Concerned Scientists, 2008

Yearly CO2 Emissions in millions of tons: EIA
1980 - 18,488.253
1990 - 21,677.327
2000 - 23,876.592
2008 - 30,377.313

Methane 4 - 9%

Ozone 3 - 7%

The (Ralph) Keeling Curve

The Keeling Curve turns 50

The Science

• Green's Quixotic Charge
• The Warmest Years on Record
• Ice Sheets
• The MOC
• Got Plastic?

Weather Anomalies

• 2008 Temperatures
• 2010, The Warmest Year on Record
• The Winter of 2012
• 2012, The Lowest Extent on Record

Videos

Global Warming is Everyone's Problem, 2010

Global Warming 101, 2007

Other Climate Change Links

• World Temperature Extremes
• Peakoil - Worldenergy Consumption Facts
• The Cryospere Today
• ICECAP
• IPCC
• EPA
• Real Climate
• Global Warming
• Wiki

Oil:

• The Oil Drum.com
• OIL-PRICE.NET
• The Oil Post - Craig

Glossary

Green House Effect

• Natural About 80-90% of the Earth's natural greenhouse effect is due to water vapor. The remainder is due to carbon dioxide, methane, and a few other gases.
• Man-Made The addition of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels

Clausius-Clapeyron equation
The phase transition between two states of matter, such as solid and liquid. On a pressure-temperature (P-T) diagram, the line separating the two phases is known as the coexistence curve. The Clausius-Clapeyron relation gives the slope of this curve. Gives the slope of the vapor pressure curve. "All known substances in the two-phase region fulfill the Clausius-Clapeyron equation provides the general validity of the 1st and 2nd laws of thermodynamics" (MIT)

The Milanković Curve
Radiation curve for high latitudes were dominated by the 41,000-year oscillation of the earth-sun distance tilt cycle, the cycle at the equator being 22,00 years

The Tyndall effect
The longer-wavelength light is more transmitted while the shorter-wavelength light is more reflected via scattering.

Back to Mathematics

[quexos]

What's going to happen we all know, the ice is going to continue shrinking until there is none left, the climate is going to become more extreme in the next decade. We cannot say for sure as there is no recorded precedent. I like this metaphor: Earth is being sick with a virus (us humans) and is catching a fever.

This fever oddly could have the same purpose as our fevers: to kill as many viruses and germs with the overheat as possible.

[xtop]

THE melting of sea ice at the North Pole may be the result of a centuries-old natural cycle and not an indicator of man-made global warming, Scottish scientists have found.

http://ff.org/centers/csspp/library/...4-21/polar.htm

been saying this for years. BUT..as the article suggests, that doesn't mean "global warming" isn't a real threat.

[GaS]

Originally Posted by quexos

What's going to happen we all know, the ice is going to continue shrinking until there is none left, the climate is going to become more extreme in the next decade.

We all know huh? Care to share some more of your omnipotence?

Do I believe we will get to the point where there is no polar ice? No, because I am not a global "climate change" lemming. But if it should, how is this a bad thing? Life flourishes in warmer climates, stuggles for survival in cold ones.

[plowmanjoe]

Originally Posted by xtop

http://ff.org/centers/csspp/library/...4-21/polar.htm

been saying this for years. BUT..as the article suggests, that doesn't mean "global warming" isn't a real threat.

this is also what i've been saying for years. global waring is real, but that doesn't mean we have any significant say in the matter.

[Rob71]

Mars is also being affected by global warming. My only question is this: Can Al "Mr. Nobel" Gore, explain how my SUV's gluttonous use of fossil fuel is causing that to happen?

[plowmanjoe]

one trip in "mr. nobel's" private jet will put out as much pollution as your suv will with one year's worth of driving.

[ZackL]

The human race as a group is really a disgusting plague. We overpopulate the planet, kill each other, and knowingly kill our habitat to continue doing these things. Oh well, live life while you can.

[J. J. Hunsecker]

Originally Posted by Rob71

Mars is also being affected by global warming. My only question is this: Can Al "Mr. Nobel" Gore, explain how my SUV's gluttonous use of fossil fuel is causing that to happen?

From February 2, 2007: SCIENTISTS AGREE: HUMANS CAUSING GLOBAL WARMING.

The Mars argument is a red herring by libertarians, to avoid facing facts. The atmosphere on Mars is 95.32% carbon dioxide (CO2). Earth, meanwhile, has 0.0384% CO2 in its atmosphere. We can also measure weather patterns for Earth going back centuries. We don't have that capability for Mars. It's not a perfect analogy to compare the two.

Even if it were true that global warming wasn't caused by man, what's wrong with reducing man-made pollution? I'd still like to breathe clean air.

one trip in "mr. nobel's" private jet will put out as much pollution as your suv will with one year's worth of driving.

Gore doesn't own a private jet, according to his spokesperson Kalee Kreider.

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by J. J. Hunsecker

From February 2, 2007: SCIENTISTS AGREE: HUMANS CAUSING GLOBAL WARMING.

I see your scientists, and raise you with other scientists.

There is nowhere near a consensus on this subject, in fact more and more scientist are coming out against it every day.

http://www.globalwarminghoax.com/e10...ts_dissent.pdf

The Mars argument is a red herring by libertarians, to avoid facing facts. The atmosphere on Mars is 95.32% carbon dioxide (CO2). Earth, meanwhile, has 0.0384% CO2 in its atmosphere. We can also measure weather patterns for Earth going back centuries. We don't have that capability for Mars. It's not a perfect analogy to compare the two.

So increased solar radiation doesn't have an effect on temperature?

Even if it were true that global warming wasn't caused by man, what's wrong with reducing man-made pollution? I'd still like to breathe clean air.

I don't have a problem with reducing pollution, I would just like to see less hypocrisy from it's advocates.

Gore doesn't own a private jet, according to his spokesperson Kalee Kreider.

He only "rents" one. Why can't Mr. Environment fly coach, or even 1st class?

[ground chuck]

Originally Posted by Craig Ruchman

So what do you think is going to happen to the polar ice this year? It appears to be on it's way to a record low - not a good thing
CK the link: http://nsidc.org/

Click on the icon in the lower right named: Artic Sea Ice News & Analysis, to see the current ice extent. It is updated daily.
The blue line is what is happening now, the dotted line is last years record low.

hasn't anyone seen the day after tomorrow?

[Blu-ray Neo]

Originally Posted by J. J. Hunsecker

From February 2, 2007: SCIENTISTS AGREE: HUMANS CAUSING GLOBAL WARMING.

The Mars argument is a red herring by libertarians, to avoid facing facts. The atmosphere on Mars is 95.32% carbon dioxide (CO2). Earth, meanwhile, has 0.0384% CO2 in its atmosphere. We can also measure weather patterns for Earth going back centuries. We don't have that capability for Mars. It's not a perfect analogy to compare the two.

Even if it were true that global warming wasn't caused by man, what's wrong with reducing man-made pollution? I'd still like to breathe clean air.



Gore doesn't own a private jet, according to his spokesperson Kalee Kreider.

This is the biggest lie put to the American people since the "Ozone Layer Hole".

For instance, those of you that took chemistry knows that on a molecular level, CFC's are heavier than air and stay 6 inches of the ground. With that in mind, how in the hell did they get all the way up into the atmosphere to cause the hole in the ozone layer?

Crap! That's all it is. Just another way for the US Government to regulate private industry and create jobs.

As for global warming, I think I'll take the advice from John Coleman before Al Gore. Mr. Coleman founded the Weather Channel and is one of the most respected scientists and meteorologists in the world.

"Global warming 'greatest scam in history' "

http://www.startribune.com/local/11826671.html

http://swacgirl.blogspot.com/2007/11...n-coleman.html

http://www.icecap.us/



Here's some of Mr. Coleman's responses to Gore's argument for Global Warming;


'CO2 is a pollutant."

CO2 is an essential nutrient for plants. Plants absorb CO2 and release oxygen, while animals inhale oxygen and exhale CO2. Researchers have proven that higher CO2 concentrations enable plants to grow faster and give them better drought tolerance.


Gore claims that sea level rise could drown the Pacific islands, Florida, major cities the world over, and the 9/11 Memorial in New York City.

Sea level has been rising at a rate of 1.8 mm per year for the past 8,000 years. The IPCC notes that “No significant acceleration in the rate of sea level rise during the 20th century has been detected.” Unless there is another Little Ice Age, they will continue rising at roughly this rate for centuries to come. As to open water in the Arctic, it happens every year in late summer—following weeks in the 40s and 50s.


In his recent movie, former Vice President Al Gore, said: “If you look at the ten hottest years ever measured, they all occurred in the last fourteen years, and the hottest of all was 2005.”

The ten hottest years ever measured happened thousands of years ago and 2005 was not one of them. Gore must be using only temperature readings from the 125 year thermometer set, a very short time to look at when one is trying to understand Global Warming, but this period of time suits the environmentalists because it is a time in which temperatures happened to be wandering up. Alarmists refuse to look at the big picture because it shows what they refuse to believe. For the US, the recently revised NASA GISS Annual Mean temperatures show 6 of the 10 warmest years were from the 1920s to the 1950s and only 4 since 1990.


The big picture is that for the last eleven thousand years, Global Temperatures have been going sideways while wandering up and down between 54 and 60 degrees Fahrenheit. In this eleven thousand years there have been five up-spikes hotter than the year 2005. The current rise in temperature is merely a medium size upward movement; of more importance, is the current high spike in CO2 levels, which is the real Hockey Stick of Global Warming.


Renowned climatologist Roger Pielke, Sr. has used IPCC’s estimates of climate forcing to calculate the contribution of CO2 to recent climate change. Pielke makes very conservative (worst-case) assumptions in considering the impacts of greenhouse gases, black carbon, tropospheric ozone, and solar radiation. This analysis ignores land use changes, which have been demonstrated to affect climate in a significant way, and cosmic rays, which affect cloud cover and thus can lead to significant climate changes.


Pielke’s estimate is that CO2 is responsible for 28% (at most) of the human-caused changes. If natural variations do occur (and it’s very hard to argue that they do not) then this value decreases. But even if one assumes that the entire 0.6 deg C increase since 1900 is due to human effects, Pielke’s estimate would suggest a CO2 contribution of only 0.17 deg C.


Modern temperatures remain lower than other periods within the Holocene (since the last Ice Age). Geologists and paleoclimatologists believe that the warmest conditions in the Holocene occurred several thousand years before Christ, and that several such episodes occurred. The most recent warm period occurred in medieval times 800-1200 years ago. Richard A. Muller and Gordon J. MacDonald, “Chapter 1: Brief Introduction to the History of Climate” Ice Ages and Astronomical Causes 2000)


http://www.icecap.us/

[mikejet]

Just because you don't beleive in global warming doesn't mean you shouldn't care. The air here in Los Angeles is horrible compared to a short drive up to the mountains. Even worse if you compare it to Hawaii where the Trade Winds carry the smog away.

I would rather breath clean air than smog. SUV's create higher amounts of smog than my little Civic.

Plus, using more fuel efficient cars and eventually alternative fuels releases us from the lease that OPEC has on us. Oil will eventually go up and when it does it will be worse than the $140/barrel we saw.

[york weir]

I don't believe global warming is being caused by humans but I also agree it can't hurt to be more energy efficient.

[DrinkMore]

I think the most ignorant comment that one can make in this thread is "humans don't have an impact" or "humans are not causing global warming".

Think about that. Step outside your little bubble of a world an think about everything that has taken place in the past 150 years.

May be far fetched - perhaps Mars is where we used to live way back when. Perhaps mars is what happens when humans kill a planet and void it of all life.


Even IF we are not the cause - what is the harm in changing how we do things? Seriously? Also, anyone seen the air in Beijing, LA? Perhaps that is natural to?

[mikejet]

Originally Posted by DrinkMore

I think the most ignorant comment that one can make in this thread is "humans don't have an impact" or "humans are not causing global warming".

Think about that. Step outside your little bubble of a world an think about everything that has taken place in the past 150 years.

May be far fetched - perhaps Mars is where we used to live way back when. Perhaps mars is what happens when humans kill a planet and void it of all life.


Even IF we are not the cause - what is the harm in changing how we do things? Seriously? Also, anyone seen the air in Beijing, LA? Perhaps that is natural to?

On my flight to Maui from LAX, when you get up past Catalina and look at the city, there's a thick brown covering of then entire basin. Right when I get off the plane at Kahului, you can smell the difference right away. FRESH AIR.

[GaS]

Originally Posted by DrinkMore

I think the most ignorant comment that one can make in this thread is "humans don't have an impact" or "humans are not causing global warming".

Think about that. Step outside your little bubble of a world an think about everything that has taken place in the past 150 years.

May be far fetched - perhaps Mars is where we used to live way back when. Perhaps mars is what happens when humans kill a planet and void it of all life.


Even IF we are not the cause - what is the harm in changing how we do things? Seriously? Also, anyone seen the air in Beijing, LA? Perhaps that is natural to?

Do humans impact their environment, yes. Do humans cause global warming, NO. I hesitate to even call global warming a theory, it is more of an unproven hypothesis with absolutely no hard data to back it up other than cooked numbers (see hansen and nasa) and anecdotal "but it feels warmer" evidence.

The harm comes when you enact laws to address the "problem" which put whole industries out of business (coal), cause electric rates to skyrocket all of which will further tank an economy already in the toilet.

Everyone is for keeping things clean, but we cannot destroy ourselves to fix a problem that doesn't exist so you can feel better about yourself.

[Iceberg]

We've going to have a tough year this 2009, it's not going to be normal

[mikejet]

Originally Posted by GaS

Do humans impact their environment, yes. Do humans cause global warming, NO. I hesitate to even call global warming a theory, it is more of an unproven hypothesis with absolutely no hard data to back it up other than cooked numbers (see hansen and nasa) and anecdotal "but it feels warmer" evidence.

The harm comes when you enact laws to address the "problem" which put whole industries out of business (coal), cause electric rates to skyrocket all of which will further tank an economy already in the toilet.

Everyone is for keeping things clean, but we cannot destroy ourselves to fix a problem that doesn't exist so you can feel better about yourself.

In the long run, even if you don't beleive in it, humans are making this world harder and harder to live in. We are not only making it harder for animals, but we are endagering our own sustainable living.

People don't do it to feel better about themselves, they do it because they don't want humans to go extinct.

[DrinkMore]

Originally Posted by GaS

Humans don't cause global warming. I hesitate to even call global warming a theory, it is more of an unproven hypothesis with absolutely no hard data to back it up other than cooked numbers (see hansen and nasa) and anecdotal "but it feels warmer" evidence.

The harm comes when you enact laws to address the "problem" which put whole industries out of business (coal), cause electric rates to skyrocket all of which will further tank an economy already in the toilet.

Everyone is for keeping things clean, but we cannot destroy ourselves to fix a problem that doesn't exist so you can feel better about yourself.

I will take a tanked economy over a crap planet any day. I will also be happy to pay more for electric as long as its not coal. You seen the commercials that are telling you what I have been saying for years? They are about "clean coal" and how it's a joke.

Sorry bud, but it does not take a rocket scientist to come to the conclusion that for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Sometimes the reaction is far greater than the action. You can believe whatever you wish. I believe the greed, ignorance and complete disregard for our actions is what landed us here. Have you no heart for the animals that are currently suffering and will be obliterated because we as a species have a need to rape the natural world of all it's resources for our own ends?

Do you think the stuff that makes your life good grows on trees? (no pun intended). Most of it is dug, blown, milled, smelted, mixed, burned, trucked, refined and so on. The energy, time, materials, resources needed to build the simplest of things is taxing. Multiply that by billions or trillions and the problem is evident.

I am not a gun ho tree hugger by any means. I do however think about how I can change things I do everyday to be better and consume less and create less waste. Recycling is a great start. 90% of everything you throw away, is recyclable. We don't put out trash hardly anymore. It's nearly all recycled items. Tons of recycling goes out. Change your automatic dish washing detergent. Change the chemicals you use to clean your house. We use Method. Buy products made of natural fibers. Rugs made of cotton, sisal, sea grass or recycled materials. We have many of these. Wool, cotton, sisal etc etc. Don't buy disposable items. It's a waste.

See what I am getting at? Sure you might pay a little extra - but so what? Do something good with your money. Show people YOU care. Also realize natural things are more durable and last longer and if you do decide to get rid of them, you can bury them and they will decompose with no impact because they are natural. They go back to the earth.



Then again, I guess it's much easier to whip out who is right/wrong lists, blame everyone else but you. When its just as easy to do what is right instead of complaining.