Quote:
Originally Posted by jsteinhauer
It's going to be uglier than many think. There is every reason to believe economic recovery in the US will be slower than the regrowth of the price of petroleum. Demand will keep increasing in China and India.(in Duluth, MN).
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By The Numbers
Peak Oil Modelling
Calgary, Alberta CANADA, September 02, 2010 /FSC/ - Enquirica Research Inc. (NQR - 0),
Oil is a finite resource. The key issue surrounding peak production is not whether we will reach a point of maximum global production, but rather the timing of the peak and the rate of post peak decline. A recent survey paper from the UKERC found that:
* The global average decline rate of post-peak fields is at least 6.5%/year and the corresponding decline rate of all currently producing fields is at least 4%/year. This implies that approximately 3 mbpd of capacity must be added each year just to maintain production at current levels - equivalent to a new Saudi Arabia coming on-stream every 3 years. An additional 1 mbpd must be added to meet demand growth.
* More than two thirds of existing capacity must be replaced by 2030 solely to prevent production from falling.
* A peak in conventional oil production before 2030 appears likely and there is a significant risk of a peak before 2020. For example, a 2008 report by The UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security warned that a "peak in cheap, easily available oil production" was likely by 2013.
(
Filing Services Canada)[/quote]
“In 2007 primary sources of energy consisted of petroleum 36.0%, coal 27.4%, natural gas 23.0%, amounting to an 86.4% share for fossil fuels in primary energy consumption in the world.” (EIA)
In 1980, production was 63.96 mbpd, 1990 - 66.21 mbpd, and 2008 - 85.48 mbpd. The world currently consumes between 29 - 31 Billion Barrels a year. "As per official reports published in 2005, the approximate oil reserves are - Saudi Arabia 24%, Canada 13%, Iraq and Iran 10%, each, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Russia 9 percent each, Venezuela 8 percent, Mexico, United States (excluding oil shale), Norway and Indonesia 5 percent each, Nigeria, Libya, China, Kazakhstan and Algeria 2 percent each." (Oil-Price.Net)
A decisive fact for our future is that over half of all the oil that was generated millions of years ago can be found in only a few hundred, giant oilfields. At the start when these fields were discovered, it seemed as though they would never end. During a 10-year period around 1960, 48 billion barrels of oil per year were found while annual global consumption was only eight billion barrels. Now the yearly consumption has risen to over 30 billion barrels but the finds per year have decreased. (Kjell Aleklett, University of Sydney, 3 November 2010)
Motorists, airlines and railroads are buring crude-bases fules at a rate of one supertanker every 33 minutes, a 2.2% increase from 2009...[Exxon Moble] increase production 21% to 4.45 mbpd...oil futures in MY averaged $76.20 a barrel in Q3...Worldwide demand for crude is averaging 86.6 mbpd this year and is expected to rise to 88.1 mbpd in 2011...the price of benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude will average $106 a barrel in 2012 and $137 in 2015, Barclays (Joe Carrol, Bloomberg, 20 October 2010)
The oil industry requires prices in excess of $60 per barral, otherwise new projects will turn out to be money-losers...for future projects - prices close to $80 -
Mouawad. Oil above $80 can send the economy back into recession, reduce demand and lower prices - putting a hold on new projects. The new '
oil window': $60 - $80. Current
price per barrel (Bloomberg)
In the fall of 2008...by the International Energy Agency(
IEA).. the decline of the the worlds 400 largest oil fields...without massive investment...the annual depleation rate was 9% per year...more then triple the previous estimates...
A Nation of Farmers, p 7. More than 60% of global oil fields are past peak and are now in permanent decline.
By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 mbpd… The implications for future conflict are ominous...(USJFCOM, Joint Operating Environment)
The US military has warned that extra capacity could disappear within two years and there could be serious shortages by 2015 with a significant economic and political impact..."By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 mbpd," says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis. (Terry Macalister, guardian.co.uk, 11 April 2010)
Merrill Lynch: Analyst thinks global output could shrink by 30 mbpd by 2015. Could push prices higher by 2010 (Business Week, 23 Feb 2009)
Quote:
•We are now burning 10 times as much energy as a century ago to provide the goods and services we consume.
•Energy consumption is still increasing rapidly, with an approximate 550 exajoules [5.5 x 10^20 J/yr] (523 Quadrillion BTUs) consumed at the primary energy level in 2010.
•Of this total 80% was provided by fossil fuels, 11.3% by bio-energy mainly from wood combustion, 5.5% from nuclear, 2.2% from hydro, and 0.4% from other renewable energy sources.
•The historic time for each energy source to grow from 1 to 10 exajoules in primary energy production was 12 years for nuclear, 33 years for crude oil, 39 years for natural gas, 52 years for coal, and 59 years for hydro-power.
Rembrandt, TOD, 16 Feb 2012
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OPEC Countries
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was created at the Baghdad Conference on September 10–14, 1960, by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, its 5 founding members. Currently there are 12 members: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. OPEC is a swing producer, meaning it can increase or decrease commodity supply. There objective is to co-ordinate and unify petroleum policies in order to secure fair and stable prices for petroleum producers. OPEC was modeled after the American Texas Railroad Commission set up in 1891 to regulate the oil and gas industry. As of November 2010, OPEC members collectively hold 79% of world crude oil reserves and 44% of the world’s crude oil production, affording them considerable control over the global market". (
wiki).
Qatar
It became independent in 1971, and is rulled by the Al Thani family; has the worlds highest per capita GDP which grew by 19.40% in 2010. The South Pars/North Dome Gas-Condensate field (9,700 km²) is the world's largest gas field (EIA) and is shared between Iran (South Pars 3,700 km²) and Qatar(North Dome 6,000 km²).
Quote:
In-place volumes are estimated to be around 1800 tcf gas in place and some 50 billion barrels of condensate in place. With in place volumes equivalent to 360 billion barrels of oil (310 Billion Boe of Gas and 50 Billion bbl of condensate) the field is the world’s biggest conventional hydrocarbon accumulation even bigger than Ghawar oil field, which has 170 billion barrels of original oil in place.
The field recoverable gas reserve is equivalent to some 215 billion barrel of oil and it also holds about 16 billion barrels of recoverable condensate corresponding of about 230 billion barrel of oil equivalent recoverable hydrocarbons.
ecasb.com
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Saudi Arabia
The Prophet of Islam, Muhammad ibn ‘Abdullāh, was born in Mecca in about 570. He united the Arab tribes and created a single Islamic religious polity in the Arabian peninsula. Today, Al Mamlaka al ʻArabiyya as Suʻūdiyya, is the third largest Arab country with a population of 25.7 million. Domestic electricity demand is rising 10% per year and now uses 25% of its oil production—nearly three mbpd. Medium-term, Saudi Arabia is in danger of losing its all-important “reserve margin" (
Saudi In Focus). Current production is about 7.7 mbpd from 1,560 wells (2005) that meet 73% of all incremental world demand. 90% of this production comes from 5 mega fields including Ghawar, the largest conventional oil field in the world.
Ghawar
It's ERoEI is 100:1. The 11,200 km^2 field was discovered in 1948 and put on stream in 1951 at a rate of rate of 15,600 bpd of dry oil.
(EMIRATES 24/7). It reached a peak of 5.7 mbpd in 1981. Saudi Aramco indicates that Ghawar has produced 48% of its proven reserves. Currently production is over 5 mbpd (790,000 m^3). This is more than 60% of Saudi Arabia’s total production, 6% of the world’s oil supplies and over 15% of OPEC’s output. In April 2010, Saad al-Treiki, Vice-President for Operations at Aramco, reported that over 65 billion barrels (10.3 km3) have been produced from the field since 1951. Treiki further stated that the total reserves of the field had originally exceeded 100 billion barrels or 16 km^3(wiki). In 1959, Aramco started a 20-year gas injection programme at Ain Dar, one of Ghawar's areas, to sustain the reservoir pressure. They started secondary recovery techniques using water injection in 1964 (Upstream Online). Currently they are injecting about 7 million barrels of seawater every day and in 2004, the water cut was up to 55% (Kunstler, p78)
I told them that I have ordered a halt to all oil explorations so part of this wealth is left for our sons and successors God willing (King Abdullah)
Venezuela
Hugo Chávez (1954 - 2013) came to power in 1998 and replaced the the country's 1961 constitution with the República Bolivariana de Venezuela - after Simón Bolívar (1783 – 1830) who liberated Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Panamá, Perú y Bolivia from Spanish colonial rule. Oil revenue has increased from 51% of total income in 2000 to 56% 2006; oil exports have grown from 77% in 1997 to 89% in 2006(wiki). La cinturón de la brea or The Orinoco belt lies along the norther bank of the Rio Orinoco. It is 54,000 miles^2 of bitumen embeded in clays and sand which contains 1T barrels of extra heavy crude with an API gravity of 9 degrees and an ERoEI of 5 – 6. 513 billion barrels are technically recoverable.
Non OPEC Countries
Australia
Just a decade ago Australia was a net exporter of crude oil, producing more than needed for domestic consumption. Today production just over 50% of requirements, and is forecast (according to energy industry advisory firm EnergyQuest) to decline to about 20 per cent by 2030. (Paul Syvret,
Courier.mail.com, 11 July 2010)
Brazil
Brazil has 12.6 billion barrels of proven oil reserves for 2009. Production was about 2.81 mbpd in 2010. Rio de Janeiro represents 80% of Brazil’s total production. Most of Brazil’s crude is deep offshore and mostly-heavy grade. In 2009, Petrobras tests the Pre-Salt Tupi field which is around 4,000m to 5,000m below the ocean floor. It is the largest discovery since the Kashagan field. The upper estimate is 1.3 km^3 or 8 billion barrels (
wiki) Tupi is expected to produce 14 kbpd from 100 wells and cost around $50bn to $100bn.
Ethanol.
In 2008, Brazil produced 454 kbpd, with blending from 20-25%. It accounts for more than 50 percent of light vehicle fuel.
Canada
"The age of 'Tough Oil' has clearly begun. This year, the United States’ largest single source of imported oil is expected to be the Canadian tar sands. The bitumen is second largest source of oil in the world after Saudi Arabia. Canada has 85% of the world's supply in four regions: Athabasca, Wabasva, Cold Lake and Peace River - areas covering nearly 77,000 km^2 of boreal forest and muskeg. They contain about 1.7 trillion barrels (270×10^9 m^3) of bitumen in-place. "10% of these deposits, about 170 billion barrels (27×10^9 m^3) were considered to be economically recoverable at 2006 prices, making Canada's total oil reserves the second largest in the world, after Saudi Arabia's" (Wiki). The remaining 90% lies deep underground and extracting them may deliver a negative ERoEI. The easiest oil sands require 2 to 6 barrels of water to produce one barrel. Production is set to increase from 1.31 mbpd in 2008 to 3 mbpd in 2018 and to 3.5 mbpd by 2025, adding 4% to global production (The Mark). This unconventional oil comes mostly in a solid form, has a low ERoEI with more environmental impacts than conventional oil. It has to be either strip-mined which leaves a behind a devastated landscape, or melted out of the earth using natural gas.
Alberta Tar Sands: The High Cost of Oil Profits
China
Most populous country. Population has gone from 0.6 billion in 1950 to 1.330 in 2008 and will reach 1.5 in 2030. The economy grew by 9% from 2008 to 2010 and passed Japan to become the world's 2nd largest. Currently the Red Dragon's economy is improving while the US is on a downswing. Coal provides 69.5% of the contry's energy. Between 2003 and 2008, they added the equivalent of two coal-fired 600-megawatt plants a week. Last year China consumed 3.5 billion tons, 2.33x the 1.5 billion tons they required 10 years ago. As of 2009, they consume about 53% of the worlds cement, 47% of iron ore, 47% of coal, 54% of steel, 41% of aluminum, and 10% of oil. In 2009 China passes the US in auto sales. In 2010, 11.5 million were sold in the US while China had reached 17 million. (IHS Global Insight)
Quote:
New Chinese cities are springing up in mere months. A stop-motion video posted on the Internet last year showed a 15-story hotel being built in six days. A new coal power plant opens, on average, every four days. Twenty million Chinese move from the countryside to cities each year...China is building highways faster than any other nation, and its motorists are now buying around 13 million automobiles per year, versus 11 million annually in the U.S...China relies on coal for 80% of its electricity and 70% of its total energy. It's now using nearly half of all coal consumed globally [3,000,000,000+ tons per year, 3x U.S consumption]...Further, as with oil production, coal mining proceeds on the basis of the “best-first” or “low-hanging fruit” principle, so we must assume that China is extracting its highest-quality, easiest-accessed coal now, leaving the lower-quality and more expensively mined coal for later.
Richard Heinberg, The End of Growth, Chapter 5, 2011
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BEIJING (Reuters) - China's apparent
oil demand rose 12.5 percent in September from a year earlier, the sixth rise in a row and the fastest rate since June 2006, as refiners operated at record rates amid a sustained recovery in economic activity.
In 1980, China consumed 3% of the world's oil, now it is 10%, now the world's 2nd largest consumer. "China's oil need will rise to 11.3 mbpd by 2015, even with domestic production peaking at 4.0 mbpd" (CBSNEWS Opinion, 13 October 2010)
India
2nd most populous country with 1,190,930,000 as of 2 December 2010. The US Census Bureau predicts India’s population in 2025 will be just under 1.4 billion people - the 1st time that India’s growth will surpass that of China. By 2040, population is expected to be 1.52 billion. India’s total energy consumption: Coal 40%, oil 24%, and natural gas 6% (IEA). Energy imports could double to 53% of commercial energy consumption in 2031-32 from about 25% in 2003-04 (HSBC). India’s crude oil imports have more than doubled in the last ten years, touching 159.26 million tons in 2009-10 (PeakOil.com)
Kazakhstan
Mexico
The
Cantarell oil field discovered in 1976 and 85 km de la ciudad del Carman is the worlds 8th largest; owned by Petroleos Mexicanos or Pemex. Since the production high of 3.4 mbpd in 2004-2005, output has fallen over 800 kbpd 'This field produces half of what
Ghawar does' -
C.R. Morton. 2009 - output fell by 7.8% (2.56 mbpd over last year) and is down 30% from its 2004 peak. 'Forcasting a decline to 2.5 mbpd by 2010'. 'Mexico's reserves will last for just 9 more years' (Business Week, 28 September 2009). All the more troubling considering Pemex represents 40% of
Mexico's total revenues.
"Mexico throws in the towel". The death of Cantarell...the point Mexico becomes a net oil importer...[where]40% of the contry's budget is dependent on oil...recently announced it will cut back drilling by 60% at the Chicontepec oil field by 2011...[which is] Mexico's largest hydrocarbon reserve...139 billioln boe...Most of the oil...is extra heavy, which means it won't be as cheap to extract as the light stuff."" (Energy & Capital, 11 October 2010)
North Sea
The North Sea comprises the UK, Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Germany Offshore. "The British and Norwegian sections hold most of the remainder of the large oil reserves. It is estimated that the Norwegian section alone contains 54% of the sea's oil reserves and 45% of its gas reserves.[11] More than half of the North Sea oil reserves have been extracted, according to official sources in both Norway and the UK. For Norway, the NPD [12] gives 4,601 million cubic metres (corresponding to 29 billion barrels) for the Norwegian North Sea alone (excluding smaller reserves in Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea) ultimate of which 2,778 (60%) already produced to January 2007. UK sources give a range of estimates of reserve, but even using the "maximum" estimate of ultimate recovery, 70% had been recovered at end 2006." (
Wiki)
Since the 1970s, North Sea oil has provided Europe with an alternative to Middle East
crude and boosted non-OPEC production but output peaked in 1999... Oil output drops 14 pct in June (Joe Brock, 12 May 2010)
"We face a situation during the [next few years] where fuel price unrest could lead to shortages in consumer products and the UK's energy security will be significantly compromised. This has the potential to hit UK business and commerce as well as the most disadvantaged in society with yet another crisis." (UK's Industry Task Force, 2010)
Norway
'Norway is now reaching its production peak for gas, and a marked reduction in exports can be expected in the next decade...Even in the wake of the hardest economic recession of the last 30 years, oil prices are today about four times what they where a decade ago.' (Luís Moreira de Sousa, 13 July 2010)
Russia
Russian production increased from 3mbpd in the 1960s to a plateau of ±11 mbpd in the 1980s, followed by a drop to 6 mbpd in the mid 1990s. (
Rembrandt, TOD) The USSR was exporting 2 mbpd till 1985. Then the USSR dissolved on December 25, 1991 where part of the collapse was due to Saudi Aramco for lowering oil prices below Soviet production costs. By 2005 however, production was 7.4 mbpd from 41,192 wells. Today, production has further recovered/increased. But according to Vladimir Putin, keeping up Russia’s oil output at 500 million tons a year will cost 9 trillion roubles ($292 billion) to halt what would otherwise be a 20% fall in production over the next 10 years. (Evgeniya Chaykovskaya, 30 October 2010). In October 2010, Russia sets a production record of 10.26 mbpd with increased output comming from Sakhalin Island.
United States
The world's 3rd most populous country (310,829,000 2010), has 4.51% of the worlds population, but uses 25% of its energy. In 1860, field production began with 1,000 bpd and by 1970, it peaked at 9.6 mbpd. In 2005, production was 5.8 mbpd from 521,070 wells. By 2009, it was down to 4.9 mbpd. It has been in decline ever since except from a recent growth from unconventional oil. Currently fossil fuel is 85% of total energy demand, about 45 - 50 million BOE/D (Peak Oil). At the present rate, the US has an R/P of only 11 years. "Over 85% of America’s oil wells are marginal wells – producing less than 15 bpd. Yet they produce about 20 percent of American oil production" (ipaa). Major Unconventional Fields: Bakken, Marcellus, Niobrara, Mississippi Lime, Bone Spring Sprabetty, Barnett Haynesville-Bossier, Eagle Ford and Deepwater Golf of Mexico subsalt.
The top five oil exporters to the US in September 2010 YTD are (kbpd): Canada 1,976, Nigeria 1,021, Mexico 1,116, Saudi Arabia 1,072, Venezuela 928 (EIA). Currently in 2011, about 2/3 of US oil is imported, the world's largest import dependency. "The price of oil has doubled in the past five years, but U.S. oil consumption has only fallen by about 10% over that time. So we are using less and paying a lot more overall." (
Peakoil.com)
Exxon's grim stats on daily production:
2001 - a promise to produce 5 mbpd by 2005.
2006 - 4.23 mbpd
2007 - 4.18 mbpd
2008 - 3.92 mbpd, 3% of world production
Business Week, 16 Feb 2009
2009 - 2.39 (Jad Mouawad,
The New York Times, 1 February 2010)
Shell’s recent ex-president John Hofmeister predicts $5 gas by 2012 (Tam Hunt)
Trans Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS), 1977
The 800 mile long TAPS funnels crude from the North Slope's Prudhoe Bay to the Port of Valdez. It was built to pump dry oil with flow rates above 500 kbd. The oil comes out of the ground and enters the pipeline at a temperature of up to 145° F. In 2008, when the flow rate at 703 kbd, it took 13 days at 2.6 mph for the oil to reach Valdez where the temp was 55.6° F. However, the wells are drying up. And despite a capacity of 2 mbpd, current flow is 700 kbpd (2010) and is falling at least 6% a year. Wax starts to form at 75° F, and ice forms from the salty water at 31° F. The widely considered minimum is about 500 kbpd; predicted to be reached by 2015. As of Feb 2012, the flow has fallen to 609 kbpd (TOD)
Keystone Pipeline Project
A $12 billion 2,673-kilometre (1,661-mile) 36" pipeline that begins in Hardisty, Alberta and runs on to Cushing, Oklahoma (Steele City, Nebraska to Oklahoma - Phase II). Keystone Pipeline is 435,000 barrels per day (69,200 m^3/d) which will be increased up to 590 kbpd (94,000 m^3/d). The Keystone XL is expected to be completed by 2012–2013.
"Much of the shale 'oil' in other western states is not actually oil. It is kerogen, an organic precursor to oil, in effect organic polymers that have not been subjected to enough heat and pressure to turn into oil. If you want to turn it into oil, you have to cook it (JHK, 4 April 2011)
Bakken Shale Oil
First noted by J.W. Nordquist in 1953. It is located in the Williston Basin and covers parts of Montana, North Dakota, and Saskatchewan. The amount of technically recoverable tight oil within the Bakken Formation is 3.0 to 4.3 billion barrels out of perhaps 400 billion barrels of oil in place. Most of the oil is at a depth of 15,000 feet and is recovered using hoizontal drilling and fracking. With oil at around $100 a barrel, the rush is on. There are over 4300 shale oil wells in the Bakken formation of North Dakota producing about 610,000 barrels a day. Most of the Bakken oil production comes from Elm Coulee Oil Field, Richland County, where production began in 2000 and is expected to ultimately total 270 million barrels. In 2007, Elm Coulee averaged 53,000 bpd. (Wiki) Currently production is less than 400,000 bpd with a projected maximum of around 800,000 ten years from now. (JHK, 2011). These wells go quickly into steep decline. The average well yields around 85 000 Bbls during the first 12 months of production and then experiences a year over year decline of 40% (+/-) 2% (Rune Likvern,
TOD). It is challenging to find support for the idea that total production of shale oil from the Bakken formation will move much above present levels of 0.6 - 0.7 Mb/d on an annual basis. (Rune Likvern,
TOD). It is expected that production there will peak and start to wane in the next 2-5 years (
Heinberg).
Marcellus Shale Oil
A Devonian-era shale oil found in northeastern Pennsylvania and southeastern New York. To get commercial quantities, fractures must be created in the rock (hydraulic fracturing).
Green River Oil Shale
There are 213 billion tons oil shale, about 60% of the world's total, covering portions of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. Estimates range from 1.2 to 1.8 trillion (about 1.5 trillion US barrels 2.38 × 10¹¹ m³) barrels of kerogen, which is greater than all the oil of Saudi Arabia. Kerogen as mentioned before, is a solid bituminous material that is a precursor of petroleum. The shale must mined and then retorted for about two weeks. The liquid is then separated and collected. The alternative is in situ retorting where it is heated underground and the liquid pumped to the surface. 'The EROI for oil shale falls between 1:1 and 2:1 when internal energy is counted as a cost' (Adam Brandt, 2008 - 2009).
Glossery
BOE - Barrel of oil equivalent.
BOE/D - Barrels of oil equivalent per day.
R/P - Reserve-to-production.
Proved World Reserves, metric tons
Coal - 847,488,000,000 R/P 133 years
Oil - 168,600,000,000 R/P 25 years
Natural Gas (LNG) - 128,611,000,000 R/P 60 years
Credit: British Geological Survey 2005
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