Christmas Box Office Showdown (12/20-12/25) Greatest Showman, Jumanji, Downsizing

[WestMan]

Originally Posted by imsounoriginal

Fair enough. Let's see how the holiday weekend goes. Big test but it's Star Wars and Disney so I'm sure it'll do fine.

BTW, the downturn of Star Wars receipts was predicted pretty well in this piece: http://www.reelviews.net/reelthought...ght_1511800876

Of course I posted it before the movie came out and people didn't wanna read it, but now that they know the movie is garbage, maybe people will take another look at it.

Very good read, and I completely agree. I could see that even in about 5 years it will feel like every other movie series. Not good. And the box office will eventually follow.

[Star Lord]

Originally Posted by imsounoriginal

Of course the movie was gonna underperformed compared to TFA. But I don't see how $592M+ worldwide in just one week is underperforming by any objective metric.

But I do hope it plummets this weekend. Movie deserves to drop like an anvil. I know it won't, but i'll hope.

[DrWally]

Originally Posted by WestMan

Very good read, and I completely agree. I could see that even in about 5 years it will feel like every other movie series. Not good. And the box office will eventually follow.

To put this in perspective, TLJ has made more money domestically in its first week than any other movie in history BAR ONE.

This is now classed as "Underperforming" and having "Damaged the brand".

I guess we all now need to adjust our metrics for success.

[Chaotic]

Originally Posted by imsounoriginal

But I do hope it plummets this weekend. Movie deserves to drop like an anvil. I know it won't, but i'll hope.

Why?

[Bugg]

Originally Posted by DrWally

To put this in perspective, TLJ has made more money domestically in its first week than any other movie in history BAR ONE.

This is now classed as "Underperforming" and having "Damaged the brand".

I guess we all now need to adjust our metrics for success.

Obviously nobody at Lucasfilm/Disney are worried about being able to afford to buy their kids a GI Joe with the Kung Fu grip this Christmas, but if they were projecting X amount of money and it makes less, there will be concern.

[IndyMLVC]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain.../#2a19032d355c

'Last Jedi' Grosses Are Collapsing With The Worst Daily Holds Of All 9 Star Wars Movies

[Batman1980]

Originally Posted by IndyMLVC

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain.../#2a19032d355c

'Last Jedi' Grosses Are Collapsing With The Worst Daily Holds Of All 9 Star Wars Movies

Are they really putting it like that? It still had a huge opening so you can't call it a disappointment but I am absolutely stunned that its legs are already wobbly. This weekend with so many new films definitely won't help.

[IndyMLVC]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

Are they really putting it like that? It still had a huge opening so you can't call it a disappointment but I am absolutely stunned that its legs are already wobbly. This weekend with so many new films definitely won't help.

Read the article. It's very fair. But that's the headline. And it's Forbes - not some fanboy magazine.

[Batman1980]

I can only imagine how Disney is reacting to the news, probably similar to how WB/DC reacted to the box office for Justice League.

[Bugg]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

Are they really putting it like that? It still had a huge opening so you can't call it a disappointment but I am absolutely stunned that its legs are already wobbly. This weekend with so many new films definitely won't help.

If it's doing less than expected, then it's a disappointment. Not a flop or even close to being a flop, but Star Wars is the Cadillac of movie franchises and comes with loftier expectations than anything else. Sort of like if the Superbowl gets 20% less viewers than expected, it's a disappointment even if it is still the highest rated program for the entire year.

[WestMan]

This is not a knock or an attack in any way. I've seen this with discussions about other topics too.

Some people just don't fully understand the difference between overall performance and expected performance.

The overall performance of Episode 8 is fantastic.

The difference between the expected performance and how it is actually performing is where the problem is. The movie was expected to have a small drop from Episode 7, like in the 15% to 20% range. Now it is looking at somewhere closer to a 33% drop. And based on the reaction, this could even effect future movies too.

[Batman1980]

Originally Posted by WestMan

This is not a knock or an attack in any way. I've seen this with discussions about other topics too.

Some people just don't fully understand the difference between overall performance and expected performance.

The overall performance of Episode 8 is fantastic.

The difference between the expected performance and how it is actually performing is where the problem is. The movie was expected to have a small drop from Episode 7, like in the 15% to 20% range. Now it is looking at somewhere closer to a 33% drop. And based on the reaction, this could even effect future movies too.

How sure are they on JJ Abrams? If he's not already signed, I could see this performance affecting how sure they are on bringing him back.

[WestMan]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

How sure are they on JJ Abrams? If he's not already signed, I could see this performance affecting how sure they are on bringing him back.

If anything, these BO numbers could make them rethink handing an entire trilogy over to Rian Johnson. I wouldn't be shocked if all of a sudden there are "creative differences" or some other made up excuse to let him go. Disney isn't going to be happy. The most interesting quote from the Forbes BO article:

"In fact, The Last Jedi isn't even holding as well as Justice League did. On its sixth day the DC film retained 27 percent of its opening day audience, nearly double what the Star Wars picture has done."

[Batman1980]

Originally Posted by WestMan

If anything, these BO numbers could make them rethink handing an entire trilogy over to Rian Johnson. I wouldn't be shocked if all of a sudden there are "creative differences" or some other made up excuse to let him go. Disney isn't going to be happy. The most interesting quote from the Forbes BO article:

Oooh, that's bad and people were absolutely ripping Justice League for its legs. Heads will roll, the only question now is how many. If nothing else now I want to see it sooner, Christmas morning feels like a good time.

[WestMan]

Originally Posted by Batman1980

Oooh, that's bad and people were absolutely ripping Justice League for its legs. Heads will roll, the only question now is how many. If nothing else now I want to see it sooner, Christmas morning feels like a good time.

For it to have the same drop as Justice League, the film would have to only gross $70 Million for the second weekend. Rogue One did $64 Million for the second weekend and that was with a typical X-Mas day boost. It's going to be interesting. If the drop is even over 60%, I think the higher ups at Disney are going to be pissed that they are already showing major damage 3 movies in.... and Solo isn't looking good.

[Batman1980]

Originally Posted by WestMan

For it to have the same drop as Justice League, the film would have to only gross $70 Million for the second weekend. Rogue One did $64 Million for the second weekend and that was with a typical X-Mas day boost. It's going to be interesting. If the drop is even over 60%, I think the higher ups at Disney are going to be pissed that they are already showing major damage 3 movies in.... and Solo isn't looking good.

Rogue One was one nobody but SW fans liked, right? As far as I can tell, it wasn't even all of them. The biggest problem was it doesn't accomplish anything and I still can't remember the name of a single character that was in it. Haven't seen TFA since theatres and even without the promotion blitz for TLJ, I still remember numerous characters from that one. SW will be fine, Disney just needs to be more careful if they want more TFA type numbers.

[DrWally]

"In fact, The Last Jedi isn't even holding as well as Justice League did. On its sixth day the DC film retained 27 percent of its opening day audience, nearly double what the Star Wars picture has done."

That's actually a really disingenuous statement, since JL' s sixth day was Thangsgiving. Context. Ultimately it's going to be tough to gauge TLJ' s performance properly until the holiday period is done. But here's some context for you :

Batman Returns grossed less than two thirds of Batman.

The Lost World grossed less than two thirds of Jurassic Park.

Age of Ultron grossed slightly more than two thirds of The Avengers.

So if TLJ grosses around two thirds of TFA then that is actually par for a megabucks franchise, not a cause for concern in any way at all.

[Jennifer Lawrence Fan]

I saw both Jumanji and The Greatest Showman and enjoyed both.

[paradise.lost]

Originally Posted by WestMan

Domestic gross... even compared to expectations that had it not performing as well as TFA... and it is still underperforming.

You really should stop talking out of your rear end. I'm curious as to what imaginary number you're likely to pull out if I were to ask what the domestic expectations were since none were reported? 900, 850, or was it even higher than TFA? We get you detest the movie to rate it a 1. Doesn't mean squat about the numbers.

Originally Posted by imsounoriginal

Fair enough. Let's see how the holiday weekend goes. Big test but it's Star Wars and Disney so I'm sure it'll do fine.

BTW, the downturn of Star Wars receipts was predicted pretty well in this piece: http://www.reelviews.net/reelthought...ght_1511800876

Of course I posted it before the movie came out and people didn't wanna read it, but now that they know the movie is garbage, maybe people will take another look at it.

Didn't read the entire article but if I am not mistaken it pretty much talks about how anticipation drove the BO of TFA. I wonder what Disney is supposed to do? Release a new movie ever 12 years, 32 if one is counting all the way back to Ep 6.

Originally Posted by IndyMLVC

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain.../#2a19032d355c

'Last Jedi' Grosses Are Collapsing With The Worst Daily Holds Of All 9 Star Wars Movies

That is a completely inaccurate statement and headline.

Originally Posted by IndyMLVC

Read the article. It's very fair. But that's the headline. And it's Forbes - not some fanboy magazine.

What it is is shoddy journalism. Since comparing to the original trilogy is idiotic one is left with the prequels and the 2 new entries. Ep 1 opened on a Wed so that's out. It's not performing worse than Ep 2 or 3, which only leaves TFA... ...and Rogue One.

Originally Posted by WestMan

This is not a knock or an attack in any way. I've seen this with discussions about other topics too.

Some people just don't fully understand the difference between overall performance and expected performance.

The overall performance of Episode 8 is fantastic.

The difference between the expected performance and how it is actually performing is where the problem is. The movie was expected to have a small drop from Episode 7, like in the 15% to 20% range. Now it is looking at somewhere closer to a 33% drop. And based on the reaction, this could even effect future movies too.

LMAO at the irony of others "not understanding". Utter BS considering TFA over-performed by about 200m itself. I was curious what this imaginary expectation number was for TLJ. Thanks for clearing that up.

Originally Posted by Batman1980

Oooh, that's bad and people were absolutely ripping Justice League for its legs. Heads will roll, the only question now is how many. If nothing else now I want to see it sooner, Christmas morning feels like a good time.

LOL. Always room for another excuse in a long list of excuses for the utter failures that were BvS and JL.

Originally Posted by Batman1980

Rogue One was one nobody but SW fans liked, right? As far as I can tell, it wasn't even all of them. The biggest problem was it doesn't accomplish anything and I still can't remember the name of a single character that was in it. Haven't seen TFA since theatres and even without the promotion blitz for TLJ, I still remember numerous characters from that one. SW will be fine, Disney just needs to be more careful if they want more TFA type numbers.

You're correct. A movie's 3.43 multiplier of opening weekend to final gross is attainable simply by a portion of the fans, not even all of them, and definitely not the general public. LOL

[paradise.lost]

Originally Posted by WestMan

For it to have the same drop as Justice League, the film would have to only gross $70 Million for the second weekend. Rogue One did $64 Million for the second weekend and that was with a typical X-Mas day boost. It's going to be interesting. If the drop is even over 60%, I think the higher ups at Disney are going to be pissed that they are already showing major damage 3 movies in.... and Solo isn't looking good.

God job. Your prejudice wasn't really showing. What Christmas boost? 25th was a Sunday last year. Or are you really saying that people headed to the theaters just because it was Christmas?