Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[The_Donster]

My 8 year old and I were at a Half Price Bookstore Outlet today and I had to explain what a VHS was when he found Disney's The Rookie. I told him we could probably find that on BD and that we still had a VHS/DVD player in the garage we don't use

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Zu Nim

You realize you're a couple of standard deviations away from the norm, right?



You can also play 78s. It's completely irrelevant to people's lives in the same way VHS and LaserDisc are irrelevant. It doesn't matter if you're in the 2.5% who might still own it or even use it (probably 0.1%). The answer for most, including collectors, is that they moved on and discarded the old. I'm not cutting edge but I am ahead of the curve and my current choices will be closer to the norm every year that passes.

It’s just an example. With rumours that Apple want to scrap downloads (MP3)or whatever format they use these days, CD could outlast them. Now, how many of you guys would have predicted that? None! They were the future after all. I suspect you are one of the ‘Kool aid’ guys going by your ‘I’m so cutting edge’ comments though.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Zu Nim

Another 50 million homes in the U.S. should have access to gigabit internet by the end of the year. (Not people - homes.) No data caps, of course.

Charter/Spectrum: We’ll Offer Gigabit Speed Nationwide by the End of 2018

Looking forward to the next set of comically pessimistic posts about the future of digital.

We shall see.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by moviegeek1992

Yes they'll be around for a long time but I also would not trust a digital provider who also supplies broadband, that potential conflict of interest may prove bad, like get Sky Broadband to enjoy your purchased movies in the best quality etc

That is true. If I am ever facing the unthinkable, I would pretty much have to rely on ITunes and hope they don’t ever go under. Like I have said before though, I honestly don’t think Digital HD will have the legs.

[Zu Nim]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

It’s just an example. With rumours that Apple want to scrap downloads (MP3)or whatever format they use these days, CD could outlast them. Now, how many of you guys would have predicted that? None! They were the future after all. I suspect you are one of the ‘Kool aid’ guys going by your ‘I’m so cutting edge’ comments though.

I literally said "I'm not cutting edge". Who is supposed to be Jim Jones and who is a suicidal follower?

People still want more of their music digitally delivered over the internet, nothing's changed about that. And both Apple Music and Spotify have offline listening, a/k/a downloads. But people want to pay monthly instead of transactionally. What we've got is a business model change, not another format change. So what is outlasting what, exactly?

Years ago I predicted subscription music would be the future, predicated on sane pricing. I also predicted that subscriptions movies/shows were the future, but I figured we'd go through years more of people buying movies before we got to subscription plans that people favored. Even movie theaters are going subscription (MoviePass) and I did not predict that. People want access to the buffet so they can pick and choose and don't want to be hassled with discrete prices.

Originally Posted by Steedeel

We shall see.

We have! You refuse to.

[Dynamo of Eternia]

Originally Posted by moviegeek1992

I agree with all your points, I hate censorship myself and would hate it if a movie was edited in the future, but these things are all hypothetical, and it's not like physical media is safe either. Clownhouse being a famous example, sure there were some who managed to grab a copy of the DVD before it was pulled from shelves, but buying that movie on the second hand market is going to cost a lot of money, so bootlegs and torrents may be the only way to watch that title unless you track down a VHS copy with sketchy quality.

If something is edited for whatever reason, couldn't one then track down a physical alternative for that one title? It's not like every title in one's digital collection will be edited.

I'm not saying that physical media is 100% without any flaws at all. That said, something being pulled/recalled is the extreme exception. In the vast majority of cases, the films are just released in whatever volume makes sense for the company releasing it. It may go out of print later, but at least it was made available.

And yes, secondary market prices (even for releases that weren't pulled from shelves, let alone ones that were) for out of print items can skyrocket due to supply and demand. But at the very least, the option exists to obtain a legit copy somehow after the fact. Whether or not someone wants to spend that kind of money on a single release is up to them. It's obviously not an ideal scenario, but it's better than no options at all.

Also, even in the extreme example of a title getting pulled, physical media is still superior because at the very least the people who did manage to buy it still have it, and there are at least some copies floating around out there. If the same thing happened with a title released digitally, they would pull it from the servers, and it would be rendered completely inaccessible even to those who did manage to buy it before it was pulled (they'll just likely get a refund or something).


Yes, my points are a lot of hypotheticals to an extent. Still, there have been examples to some extent along those lines that have occurred (the aforementioned Sword in the Stone example being one).

Ultimately the issue with a digital "collection" is that rather than the purchaser being in complete control of what they have purchased, their collection essentially has a permanent umbilical cord connecting it to the provider(s) that the content has been purchased through, as well as the studios, and all of the complicated rules, laws, and bureaucracy that go along with it. And with the continued access to all of your content as-is being dependent on none of these companies for any reason (be it by choice or circumstances beyond their control) pulling titles, going out of business, and/or never having any kind of complicated bureaucratic red tape get in the way and complicate the rights to any of this content in a manner that makes in unavailable (be it temporarily or permanently) to the end purchaser.

And you have to hope nothing along these lines EVER happens. Meaning if you want to access the digital movies that you already have now in another 10, 20, or 30+ years, you have to hope that nothing changes at all in that time that would in any way, shape, or form effect your access to the content that you have paid for.

Imagine if every disc you ever bought were dependent on the store that you bought it from continuing to be in business in order for you to use it and have access to it. Anything bought from a store like Circuit City would no longer work. I know this isn't a perfect comparison, but it illustrates a larger, potential issue.



That's why I laugh when I see people make comments assuming that because they still presently have access to movies that they bought digitally 5 or 10 years ago, that this means nothing will ever happen. 10 years is nothing in that regard. That doesn't mean something couldn't change down the road.

Another thing to keep in mind is just the general concept of purchasing something "digitally" in which no physical good is exchanged is still a relatively young concept.

Physical media works in the same fundamental manner as the sale of pretty much any other physical good. So even though physical media for movies has only been around in some capacity for 40-ish years, the sale of it still works like physical transactions that predate it. It's not like it was some kind of weird concept that people really had to consider the long term implications of.

But a "digital" purchase in which no physical good is exchanged, and you have to rely on the company that you purchased it from perpetually in order to continue to have access to it... not only is that only about half as old (or less) than the overall age of physical media movie releases, but that type of sales method in general is still very young, too. A lot of people just assume that accessing content that they "bought" digitally will be forever an option with nothing that could mess that up, and that's really not the case at all. Too many people just don't even consider the implications of this at all.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Zu Nim

I literally said "I'm not cutting edge". Who is supposed to be Jim Jones and who is a suicidal follower?

People still want more of their music digitally delivered over the internet, nothing's changed about that. And both Apple Music and Spotify have offline listening, a/k/a downloads. But people want to pay monthly instead of transactionally. What we've got is a business model change, not another format change. So what is outlasting what, exactly?

Years ago I predicted subscription music would be the future, predicated on sane pricing. I also predicted that subscriptions movies/shows were the future, but I figured we'd go through years more of people buying movies before we got to subscription plans that people favored. Even movie theaters are going subscription (MoviePass) and I did not predict that. People want access to the buffet so they can pick and choose and don't want to be hassled with discrete prices.



We have! You refuse to.

Fair enough, I misread. My error, my apology.

Look, I’m just arguing for the sake of it at this point. My stance is clear to everyone. Digital is bad news for ownership and AV quality. I want the best for my home cinema and that is going to be very difficult in the scenario I envisage. I hate digital in relation to films and collecting and I think too many people are drinking the Koolaid rather than thinking long term.

That’s it from me.

[Wasgo]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

It’s just an example. With rumours that Apple want to scrap downloads (MP3)or whatever format they use these days, CD could outlast them. Now, how many of you guys would have predicted that? None! They were the future after all. I suspect you are one of the ‘Kool aid’ guys going by your ‘I’m so cutting edge’ comments though.

... that doesn't sound like an actual rumour. Where did you hear that?

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Wasgo

... that doesn't sound like an actual rumour. Where did you hear that?

Online in my work break. Several tech sites ran the story. I think the rumour was a 2 year ‘phasing out’ period and the story appeared in 2016. It resurfaced again at Christmas time last year. A friend and I were discussing it, that’s the only reason it stuck in my mind.

[Wasgo]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Online in my work break. Several tech sites ran the story. I think the rumour was a 2 year ‘phasing out’ period and the story appeared in 2016. It resurfaced again at Christmas time. A friend and I were discussing it, that’s the only reason it stuck in my mind.

Ah... now I know what you were talking about. A garbage news site misreported some info because of South Korea. They claimed it was dropping downloads there and would slowly do it everywhere else.

Only it turned out that was all inaccurate. iTunes had never managed to negotiate sales rights in South Korea so they only had Apple Music there. Everything else was just news sites copying the bad story.

Apple negotiated permanent rights for music that's sold everywhere else, so it would only be an issue if they made it one. Downloading and streaming use the same files, one just applies a DRM. There's no reason for them to end downloading.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Wasgo

Ah... now I know what you were talking about. A garbage news site misreported some info because of South Korea. They claimed it was dropping downloads there and would slowly do it everywhere else.

Only it turned out that was all inaccurate. iTunes had never managed to negotiate sales rights in South Korea so they only had Apple Music there. Everything else was just news sites copying the bad story.

Apple negotiated permanent rights for music that's sold everywhere else, so it would only be an issue if they made it one. Downloading and streaming use the same files, one just applies a DRM. There's no reason for them to end downloading.

Right I see. Bear in mind though, this story has resurfaced in the last few months, with some saying Apple has started the process. It’s probably rubbish but it seems to be a persistent rumour.

[big dogues]

I like the physical copies be it Film, Music, or Books

[Wasgo]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Right I see. Bear in mind though, this story has resurfaced in the last few months, with some saying Apple has started the process. It’s probably rubbish but it seems to be a persistent rumour.

It's actually the same site that made the claim in 2016 making it now. They have zero credibility on this topic.

[moviegeek1992]

Originally Posted by Dynamo of Eternia

I'm not saying that physical media is 100% without any flaws at all. That said, something being pulled/recalled is the extreme exception. In the vast majority of cases, the films are just released in whatever volume makes sense for the company releasing it. It may go out of print later, but at least it was made available.

And yes, secondary market prices (even for releases that weren't pulled from shelves, let alone ones that were) for out of print items can skyrocket due to supply and demand. But at the very least, the option exists to obtain a legit copy somehow after the fact. Whether or not someone wants to spend that kind of money on a single release is up to them. It's obviously not an ideal scenario, but it's better than no options at all.

Also, even in the extreme example of a title getting pulled, physical media is still superior because at the very least the people who did manage to buy it still have it, and there are at least some copies floating around out there. If the same thing happened with a title released digitally, they would pull it from the servers, and it would be rendered completely inaccessible even to those who did manage to buy it before it was pulled (they'll just likely get a refund or something).


Yes, my points are a lot of hypotheticals to an extent. Still, there have been examples to some extent along those lines that have occurred (the aforementioned Sword in the Stone example being one).

Ultimately the issue with a digital "collection" is that rather than the purchaser being in complete control of what they have purchased, their collection essentially has a permanent umbilical cord connecting it to the provider(s) that the content has been purchased through, as well as the studios, and all of the complicated rules, laws, and bureaucracy that go along with it. And with the continued access to all of your content as-is being dependent on none of these companies for any reason (be it by choice or circumstances beyond their control) pulling titles, going out of business, and/or never having any kind of complicated bureaucratic red tape get in the way and complicate the rights to any of this content in a manner that makes in unavailable (be it temporarily or permanently) to the end purchaser.

And you have to hope nothing along these lines EVER happens. Meaning if you want to access the digital movies that you already have now in another 10, 20, or 30+ years, you have to hope that nothing changes at all in that time that would in any way, shape, or form effect your access to the content that you have paid for.

Imagine if every disc you ever bought were dependent on the store that you bought it from continuing to be in business in order for you to use it and have access to it. Anything bought from a store like Circuit City would no longer work. I know this isn't a perfect comparison, but it illustrates a larger, potential issue.



That's why I laugh when I see people make comments assuming that because they will still have access to movies that they bought digitally 5 or 10 years ago, that this means nothing will ever happen. 10 years is nothing in that regard. That doesn't mean something couldn't change down the road.

Another thing to keep in mind is just the general concept of purchasing something "digitally" in which no physical good is exchanged is still a relatively young concept.

Physical media works in the same fundamental manner as the sale of pretty much any other physical good. So even though physical media for movies has only been around in some capacity for 40-ish years, the sale of it still works like physical transactions that predate it. It's not like it was some kind of weird concept that people really had to consider the long term implications of.

But a "digital" purchase in which no physical good is exchanged, and you have to rely on the company that you purchased it from perpetually in order to continue to have access to it... not only is that only about half as old (or less) than the overall age of physical media movie releases, but that type of sales method in general is still very young, too. A lot of people just assume that accessing content that they "bought" digitally will be forever an option with nothing that could mess that up, and that's really not the case at all. Too many people just don't even consider the implications of this at all.

I collect obscure movies, stuff that has been OOP for a few years that I may have to import a different edition of from some other country entirely. I know that none of this will be available digitally. However we collectors make up a small minority of the overall customer base. Most people don't care about longevity of their movies, as you said they don't consider the implications. With today's young generation spoilt for choice with various streaming services, I doubt they have the inclination to purchase movies altogether and even if they did rewatching those movies is a different matter.

I think with digital purchases if one were to pick up a movie on sale for 3.99, essentially not much more than a rental then what's the harm? If that title were to disappear in the future, one wouldn't lose too much money in haven't built up their collection. Now paying 3x more than the price of the blu-ray and missing out on the special features, I agree that that is weird, as convenience can't be worth that much.

[Dustin44]

Originally Posted by veritas

vhs and cassette both wore out from use for me so I never viewed them as anything more then a limited number of viewings rental. Dvd was the media everybody looked at as this will last a lifetime and for the most part that held true considering how hard it was to get people to move to blu ray (I bet dvds (and perhaps even vhs (albeit rarely)) show up in estate sales even 50 to 70 years from now).

Also their was never anything that forced you to upgrade from vhs to dvd etc you could skip a format and use the old format in your own little bubble for years (decades) (they only stopped making vhs players a few years ago). If I decide to upgrade I would like it to be my choice not a company or studios choice who has a direct incentive for me to re-buy my collection.

Originally Posted by flyry

It's hard to get rid of DVDs now. No one is going to give a shit in 50-70 years.

Originally Posted by The_Donster

My 8 year old and I were at a Half Price Bookstore Outlet today and I had to explain what a VHS was when he found Disney's The Rookie. I told him we could probably find that on BD and that we still had a VHS/DVD player in the garage we don't use

Yeah, unless it is something that is OOP or very rare, it is tougher and tougher to get rid of DVD's.

You can't even really give away VHS tapes now. I don't think my local library still even take's VHS donations anymore.

We used to have a big local used movie store, which closed a little over a year ago. I know in the back they had a VHS section. They kept lowering the prices on VHS tapes over and over just trying to get rid of them. The guy working there said they could barely get rid of any of them even when they lowered the price to 25 cents each. (and these were decent titles and some Disney titles)

[dublinbluray108]

Originally Posted by moviegeek1992

Yes they'll be around for a long time but I also would not trust a digital provider who also supplies broadband, that potential conflict of interest may prove bad, like get Sky Broadband to enjoy your purchased movies in the best quality etc

Sky are going to allow millions of households in Europe to stream their channel packages via using broadband only for people who are not allowed to use a satellite dish while living in apartments complexes. This means that if you are living in either of these properties while being a new Sky customer; every channel you receive through their subscription package & possibly free to air channels too will be online only over the internet & without the use of a satellite dish.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by moviegeek1992

Yes they'll be around for a long time but I also would not trust a digital provider who also supplies broadband, that potential conflict of interest may prove bad, like get Sky Broadband to enjoy your purchased movies in the best quality etc

Originally Posted by Steedeel

That is true. If I am ever facing the unthinkable, I would pretty much have to rely on ITunes and hope they don’t ever go under. Like I have said before though, I honestly don’t think Digital HD will have the legs.

I know this Thread is Physical or Digital, but I have always said it's all Digital now. So how can Digital HD not have legs, how will Movies be delivered to us? I say stored on Servers so we can access our Collection. The Movies stored and viewed will be at the full Bitrate purchased. Discs will remain, but if people are not willing to pay the higher prices for them they will be eliminated like the CD's. If no one is buying that Product you quit making it, very simple!

[Trace Buster Buster]

I would just like to say this thread is a very good read with a lot of very intelligent responses. There's not a lot of mud slinging going on (as far as internet standards are concerned) which is always welcome. As someone who's going to have to be dragged kicking and screaming into the streaming/downloading only future, both sides have had some intriguing arguments. My collection is 99.9% physical, but I have had issues with some discs going bad (like some of the earlier lionsgate releases) and had to rebuy a newer version of the films. Now that's only happened to around 5 discs out of 500 but it did happen and sometimes I question how long these discs are going to last.

[The_Donster]

Originally Posted by Dustin44

Yeah, unless it is something that is OOP or very rare, it is tougher and tougher to get rid of DVD's.

You can't even really give away VHS tapes now. I don't think my local library still even take's VHS donations anymore.

We used to have a big local used movie store, which closed a little over a year ago. I know in the back they had a VHS section. They kept lowering the prices on VHS tapes over and over just trying to get rid of them. The guy working there said they could barely get rid of any of them even when they lowered the price to 25 cents each. (and these were decent titles and some Disney titles)

Yep, I still have all of our old DVD's and some of the shows he likes aren't on BD yet. So he picks them up at a discount when he wants something.

[Vilya]

The CD has not been eliminated. People are still buying CDs. The CD is still being produced. Best Buy and Target's decision to stop carrying them in store means little to nothing. They barely carried any in their stores before this decision. They will continue to offer them online. Declining sales, even as steep as they have been with CDs, does not equate to death. People like to extrapolate trends to their extremes when such trends will most likely level off, plateau, and nestle into a niche market.

Online has been where the best selection in CDs, videos, and books have been found for many years now. A lot of consumer spending has shifted from stores to websites. Nearly every retailer online offers free shipping if you spend a certain, and usually very low, amount and having your items sent to you is really convenient. Where people purchase has changed more than what they have purchased.