The Universal Blu myth

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by The Don

Just read something for the 15th time on these forums...

"Universal isn't going neutral/Blu anytime soon"

pretty much like "Sony isn't cutting the price for the 60GB PS3" ?

Unless Toshiba and Microsoft is there paying Sony not to drop the price of the PS/3, it is a rather different situation.

If you look bad you'll see that insiders were hinting a change was coming early this year, and the silence at CES seemed to confirm something was up. But, then Universal came out gung ho anti-Blu-ray HD DVD-rulz and the insiders were (publically) expressing puzzlement at the cross signals.

To me that probably means that Universal was talking to BD interests, finding out replication issues, encoding software, ROM-Mark licenses, etc. and were ready to make the wise business move, and then something big happened to grab 2007 away. We also saw announcements for The Matrix, and an HD DVD/DVD Star Trek combo with lots of PR of them being exclusive.

The rumour (myth? ) is that MS-Toshiba paid for 100 titles from Universal for 2007. 2008 is a brand new year, and if BD has the Q4 we all expect then CES 2008 could see the neutrality announcement.

Perhaps the laptop announcement by Toshiba might have already given Graffeo hope he can save his reputation and he will give HD DVD yet another year. But, we have to wonder if Graffeo really never wants to work in the industry again. Because, at some point, dragging on the war is going to have reprecussions and the studios are going to say "enough".

Gary

[monkyman]

Originally Posted by mshulman

Seriously, High Def DVD's are so in the infancy, that this is not happening. If it was the case, blu-ray would have a much bigger software lead as all those PS3's would have many more people buying movies for them. Its just not happening that fast.

There aren't enough HD TV's out there and out of those people that have them, over half aren't even watching High Def material. They also think DVD's are either High Def or look good enough.

Prices will need to drop under $100 for either player for things to really get going. Until that happens, we'll be seeing increasing sales, but at slow rates.

I agree with this and this is my perspective on Universal to those that wonder why they haven't gone neutral.

Do you honestly think they haven't thought this HD-DVD/Bluray thing through? Yes they are in business to make money, but by staying HD-DVD exclusive it will pay out in the long run.

Let's look at it this way. If you own a HD-DVD player and you want KING KONG, you buy HD, if not you buy SD. Universal owns the rights to KING KONG so they know there is no way to get it on bluray and they get 100% of KK sales. Now, after everyone and his brother owns KK on one format or the other, a year later HD-DVD goes belly up. Time for Universal to switch to Bluray, guess what? Here comes KING KONG on bluray, they have already sold it to everyone that had it on HD-DVD, but as everyone is switching to bluray players to get Disney, Fox, Sony, etc, and HD-DVD players are becoming obsolite, you will need to get a second copy.

Of course i'm just using King Kong as an example, it would happen with every title they released on HD-DVD. The more copys they sell to the losing format, the more that will need to be replaced.
And since Universal is the only place to buy Universal titles, again they get 100% of sales.

[BStecke]

But really, how many MUST HAVE Universal titles are out on HD DVD right now? And what Universal titles came out recently that were worth anything WILL be coming out soon? Evan Almighty (not really)? As opposed to the six or eight that will come out in the next five to six months alone on Blu Ray?

So basically they're f@$# customers by making them buy a title on the losing format first and then buying it again when their format dies. Smart strategy for numbers I guess, but as far as customer loyalty and perception, not so good. Granted, most people buying movies wouldn't know Universal from anybody else, but they're not going to be making any friends with those that know better.

[Blu-dock Saint]

Originally Posted by BStecke

But really, how many MUST HAVE Universal titles are out on HD DVD right now? And what Universal titles came out recently that were worth anything WILL be coming out soon? Evan Almighty? As opposed to the six or eight that will come out in the next five to six months alone on Blu Ray?

So basically they're f@$# customers by making them buy a title on the losing format first and then buying it again when their format dies. Smart strategy for numbers I guess, but as far as customer loyalty and perception, not so good.

I will say one thing about Universal only being on hd dvd right now. I want my damn Children of Men GAH, one movie isnt worth buying a format, but I miss that movie.

[KenThompson]

That logic only applies if you are still buying standard dvds. I haven't bought any in 3 years. I knew I was going blu and waited. Universal gets nothing from me unless they see the blu light. There are lots of people out there that feel the same way so if your looking over these forums Universal you should be concerned.

[monkyman]

Originally Posted by KenThompson

That logic only applies if you are still buying standard dvds. I haven't bought any in 3 years. I knew I was going blu and waited. Universal gets nothing from me unless they see the blu light. There are lots of people out there that feel the same way so if your looking over these forums Universal you should be concerned.

Exactly, but you will still buy from them when they go blu, so if your willing to wait, and you have no choice, their still getting your money cause their the only game in town with those movies.

[BStecke]

But they're only getting the money AFTER they come out with Blu-rays . . . so what's the point of your comment, since that's the desired outcome? Sure, I'll give them my money if it's in my benefit. That's the point of the open market.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Perhaps the laptop announcement by Toshiba might have already given Graffeo hope he can save his reputation and he will give HD DVD yet another year. But, we have to wonder if Graffeo really never wants to work in the industry again. Because, at some point, dragging on the war is going to have reprecussions and the studios are going to say "enough".

Hollywood sounds like it is actually pretty small as far as people working for different companies and I've wondered somewhat the same thing about Graffeo. I wish I could get the video from the meet to play so I could figure out if he was the one who reportedly acted like Disney just has kids movies (something about lossless not really mattering I believe). That is a pretty ignorant position for anybody who knows the industry (like that Disney controls the Pirates movies, Pulp Fiction, Sin City, Apacolypto, etc.) or is just deceptive if not ignorant, but I don't know if it was somebody in the audience or on the panel who took that position, since I haven't been able to get the video to play. My guess is that people who work for Disney wouldn't be impressed by anybody claiming something like that.

I don't know if Graffeo needs to worry so much personally about extending the war (he can always say it was actually Craig Kornblau), but he could definitely make some statements that would make others in Hollywood not respect him. Just as the other side can.

--Darin

[BStecke]

I just happen to have the videos from HME right here, for your viewing (and laughing) pleasure.

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread...710#post147710

I don't recall where the Disney comment is made. I don't know, also, if this is where you can't get the video to work, but I had to remove and reinstall quicktime to get it to work. Might want to try that.

[GasCat]

Originally Posted by ikcizokm

Secondly, people need to stop vilifying Bill Gates. It comes off as envy. Bill Gates is more a spokesman/mascot and does not call the shots at MS... he hasn't for years. There are many other executives who are making the decisions for MS's various departments and branches. Some are good and actually make sense, and some don't. But it's a capitalist nation so they are no worse than 90% of the other American companies.

You know where Bill Gates was last week? Not in some super-secret underground lair plotting to take over the government. He was in Nashville for a bridge tournament (his hobby), after his foundation just recently cut some very big checks to some very worthy charities that do good for others.

Do I think the man is a saint? No--very few people in the public eye are. But I'm not a hater, and I know he DOES do some good. How much money did you contribute to charity this year?

A few things I don't like about Gates:
He took most of his US funds and traded it for Euros further weakening the dollar.
He wants the US government to issue more work visas so that more jobs can be taken away from American programmers.
Do you know that giving money away is one of the worst ways to help someone? The problem is it doesn't provide a sustainable source of income. Ask any economist and they will say the same thing. He started a business which employs thousands. That is great;that is what the people in Africa need. If they do not have viable businesses they will continue to hold their hands out for money.

The funny thing is Gates' income being given away is what I and probably everyone else here payed for overpriced software after he drove the competition out of business illegally. I can find better heroes than Bill Gates.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by darinp2

I wish I could get the video from the meet to play so I could figure out if he was the one who reportedly acted like Disney just has kids movies (something about lossless not really mattering I believe).

He says a lot of stupid things in these videos of the HD DVD debate

Some examples from the first 3-4 parts:

- Hardware leads software (not since the days of early home computers).

- DIVX was only available at Circuit City and had no real effect on DVD adoption (the audience torn him a new one on that - Those that don't learn from history ...)

- A general tone that the mass market is what matters, not the enthusiasts (basically a tone where he's insulting the room)

- People are fooled that they are getting HD with upscaling players, and think that looks great, and therefore they need to educate them about HD DVD. (Note the stupidity of the HD DVD name, and Graffeos put the mass market that doesn't and won't understand before those willing to pay the big premiums).

- DVD exploded in 1999 when Wal-mart offered a $199 player and sold a million units on Black Friday (it was $39 in 2003)

See if you can spot the seething rage against UMD, which some thing is the basis for all of the Universal hold offs right now. Petty and short sighted.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

He says a lot of stupid things in these videos of the HD DVD debate

I'm up through section 4 and to be honest, while he does seem to make some mistakes, overall I'm impressed with Graffeo so far. I don't mind comments about early adopters buying things almost no matter what and them worrying about the whole market because I believe those things too. But, I would like to get just the last 5% or so of part 4 as I think it makes a great soundbite. He talks about how HD DVD isn't to the point where Speilberg would be okay with them releasing one of his titles. The best I can make out of what he said was:

"In regards to the Spielberg, umm ... It wasn't umm ... Steven was, wanted to wait for DVD 'til it was a higher penetration for that. Umm, right now with 100, 200 hundred thousand players and 150 thousand - he wants to wait until there's more penetration because umm you know when you do release - and Jaws was the first umm Steven Spielberg film that we came out with and at that time when we released we sold a million units. More than we ever sold on VHS. But you had to have some sort of like - I don't want to say "critical mass", because ... you have close to 3 to 4 million umm households that have players. It's too early now and I think we have to work very close with our filmmakers because they have a very integrated part in you know, in what we do. So that would answer your question on Steven."

How prophetic of him. Blu-ray has between 3 and 4 million households worldwide with players (counting the PS3) and Sony isn't giving us excuses about Steven Spielberg feeling that their chosen format isn't ready for one of his films, but instead has given us a date and specs for Close Encounters of the Third Kind.

Makes me think of a guy who says that some girl won't dance with him but it has nothing to do with him, she just dance and 15 minutes later she's out on the floor with some other guy. Based on what Graffeo said and subsequent events it seems that Universal has put themselves into a situation where Spielberg doesn't want to allow them to release his films on HD DVD at this point, but will let Sony release at least one of them on Blu-ray. Maybe Universal will think about what they could do to have enough of a market that Steven might let them have a dance, so to speak, since going neutral would more than double their target market size and give them an even bigger target market than Sony has just being exclusive to Blu-ray.

As far as the comment about Disney and kids, that was some guy in the audience. I hope that Graffeo would be smarter than that and believe that he probably is from what I've seen of the video through the 5th segment now.

BTW: I watched through the time when Ken Graffeo left and I didn't see him say that GE was pressuring him. He does say that they are comfortable with the decision they made and continue to make, but he also says multiple times that the consumers will decide. So, if they do decide to go neutral they can use that last one as an out and say that the consumers have now spoken enough that Blu-ray will stick around and so they are going to support it too. He seems to make it pretty clear that Universal wants cheaper players, so if the Chinese Blu-ray players that kjack has alluded to show up then that could weaken Universal's stance and give them a reason to support Blu-ray. There is also the interactive side that he keeps mentioning, but if Blu-ray will deliver on that for at least new players that could weaken there stance there, even with not all old players supporting all the features.

--Darin

[zombieking]

Originally Posted by den4blu

they better decide soon. i can't wait for the MATRIX.

The Matrix is Warner. It will one day be blu!!

[monkyman]

Originally Posted by BStecke

But they're only getting the money AFTER they come out with Blu-rays . . . so what's the point of your comment, since that's the desired outcome? Sure, I'll give them my money if it's in my benefit. That's the point of the open market.

My point is they are not losing any money by staying HD-DVD exclusive.

Let's say Spiderman was Universal exclusive and you had kids. On release day they begged you for that movie, would you say no, because it was HD-DVD exclusive or buy them the SD disc? You would buy them the SD disc because "all the other kids have it".

A year later they turn blu, now YOU want it because you hear how awsome it is in blu.

Either way they are getting your money at least once.

It's not like you can say, "i'll go somewhere else and buy it" It's Spiderman, if you want it, you have to go Universal.

How many people have multiple LOTR discs, extended, theatrical?
How about Pirates, I have both SD and Blu?
What about Star wars? I have VHS, and SD and would get blu.

So my point was staying HD-DVD exclusive won't hurt them cause they will get some money out of you, me, and all the HD-DVD people (probibly twice in their case)

Why go neutral now? HD is a very small market.


You may be one of those that will wait a year for a movie in your format, a lot of people want it near release day. Thats all i'm trying to say.

[monkyman]

I realize using the "Spiderman for Universal" example is incorrect, but it was just used for an example, please no rumors!!

[whippersnapper]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

Unless Toshiba and Microsoft is there paying Sony not to drop the price of the PS/3, it is a rather different situation.

If you look bad you'll see that insiders were hinting a change was coming early this year, and the silence at CES seemed to confirm something was up. But, then Universal came out gung ho anti-Blu-ray HD DVD-rulz and the insiders were (publically) expressing puzzlement at the cross signals.

To me that probably means that Universal was talking to BD interests, finding out replication issues, encoding software, ROM-Mark licenses, etc. and were ready to make the wise business move, and then something big happened to grab 2007 away. We also saw announcements for The Matrix, and an HD DVD/DVD Star Trek combo with lots of PR of them being exclusive.

The rumour (myth? ) is that MS-Toshiba paid for 100 titles from Universal for 2007. 2008 is a brand new year, and if BD has the Q4 we all expect then CES 2008 could see the neutrality announcement.

Perhaps the laptop announcement by Toshiba might have already given Graffeo hope he can save his reputation and he will give HD DVD yet another year. But, we have to wonder if Graffeo really never wants to work in the industry again. Because, at some point, dragging on the war is going to have reprecussions and the studios are going to say "enough".

Gary

Nice post Gary.

Perhaps the laptop announcement by Toshiba might have already given Graffeo hope he can save his reputation and he will give HD DVD yet another year.

That would be at VERY best a false hope. I'm beginning to think that Graffeo is suffering "Blu-ray derangement syndrome" and has become incapable of thinking rationally. At somepoint he morphed from being a reasonably competent executive to being an HD-DVD fanboy who's literally been driven insane by the success of Blu-ray. The image of folks taking an HD-DVD enabled laptop and connecting it to a HDTV is delusional at best. Nevah happen GI!!

[BorrowedTime]

Originally Posted by ikcizokm

You know where Bill Gates was last week? Not in some super-secret underground lair plotting to take over the government. He was in Nashville for a bridge tournament (his hobby), after his foundation just recently cut some very big checks to some very worthy charities that do good for others.

Do I think the man is a saint? No--very few people in the public eye are. But I'm not a hater, and I know he DOES do some good. How much money did you contribute to charity this year?

That's kind of an unfair comparison to make. If Bill Gates donates 60 million to charity, and as you ask above "How much money did you contribute to charity this year?" I certainly know that I don't have that kind of money to throw around. I use $60M as an example, I don't know if that is in the ballpark of how much he donates, but even at $600M (which I highly doubt) it's only a drop in the bucket compared to his worth. At $60M, it represents a 0.1%of his overall net worth, at $600M, 1%. I know people that contribute as much as 10-15% of their yearly income to charities, not to mention their time in volunteerism. I highly doubt Bill Gates would miss, or bat an eye at dropping 1% of 60 Billion dollars. I don't know about you, but I think people that donate 10% of their annual income of say 50000-100000 dollars, and their time, sacrifice and contribute a hell of a lot more than Mr. Gates does.

Sorry, I get annoyed when people think that simply because they have the means to throw a ton of money at a charity, that their contribution is worth more than when someone with much less literally sacrifices more (and in many cases could use the money and time to better their own situation).

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by darinp2

I'm up through section 4 and to be honest, while he does seem to make some mistakes, overall I'm impressed with Graffeo so far. ........

I think you were generous when you said that. Especially as you posted this almost immediately afterwards:

"In regards to the Spielberg, umm ... It wasn't umm ... Steven was, wanted to wait for DVD 'til it was a higher penetration for that. Umm, right now with 100, 200 hundred thousand players and 150 thousand - he wants to wait until there's more penetration because umm you know when you do release - and Jaws was the first umm Steven Spielberg film that we came out with and at that time when we released we sold a million units. More than we ever sold on VHS. But you had to have some sort of like - I don't want to say "critical mass", because ... you have close to 3 to 4 million umm households that have players. It's too early now and I think we have to work very close with our filmmakers because they have a very integrated part in you know, in what we do. So that would answer your question on Steven."

Which makes him sound like a bumbling idiot. I'm sure he isn't that, but umm public speaking clearly isn't his umm strong suit - or umm honesty.

With the announced release on Blu-ray of CE3K we can now see that Graffeo either lied or was completely ignorant of the situation with Spielberg and Universal over HD DVD.

Anyway, I watched all the videos and was distinctly unimpressed with the panel (why was the shopkeeper there?). The arguments for keeping HD DVD on life support were rather sad and pathetic. It will all be moot soon I suppose, but it's a shame to see these, allegedly, intelligent people attempting to wreck the potential of the HD disc market for their own ends (not the shopkeeper, who didn't seem to know where he was).

[The Don]

Originally Posted by EricJ

And after reading the same "It's all Universal's fault!" whine for Bill Hunt's 25th time on the Digital Bits site, I'm convinced I'm the only person on planet Earth who knows why Universal is still the "loyal" HD holdout:

Three words that seem to have occurred to no one: MICROSOFT...OWNS...UNIVERSAL.

I don't know exactly what portion of the corporation they "own", or how much quotation marks to use, but we do know that MS has been tied to the parent company of NBC ever since the formation of MSNBC (duh ), and a few ties may have even been forged back when Dreamworks was still producing "Shrek" for the Globe.
WHICH MEANS: That Universal is now on Bill Gates's "evangelism" short leash to be the face-man studio to promote HD-DVD as Not Dead Yet...And even when it is dead later this year, they'll still be forced to wave the red banner for Microsoft's post-HD sour grapes of "The future is in HD downloads!" and dump all their movies onto X-Box Live.
As long as the war is All Microsoft's Fault(TM), Universal will forever be dragged down with the ship.

I've seen no argument as to why Disney supports Blu-Ray so loyally (ie., that Steve Jobs is the major shareholder in Disney, and Apple wants to keep Blu-ray in the QuickTime family as dominant format), so I can't see why it's so hard to accept the idea of another studio being leather-slaves to their Corporate Overlords.

the reason why we question is because every other big studio is on Blu-ray and the disc sales only prove it as being the major force in this format war...

we question Universal because they are the only ones holding back the format war...and if Disney went neutral it would just make things murky...

Universal is one of the few companies that can single-handedly end this war..

[The Don]

Originally Posted by BStecke

But really, how many MUST HAVE Universal titles are out on HD DVD right now? And what Universal titles came out recently that were worth anything WILL be coming out soon? Evan Almighty (not really)? As opposed to the six or eight that will come out in the next five to six months alone on Blu Ray?

So basically they're f@$# customers by making them buy a title on the losing format first and then buying it again when their format dies. Smart strategy for numbers I guess, but as far as customer loyalty and perception, not so good. Granted, most people buying movies wouldn't know Universal from anybody else, but they're not going to be making any friends with those that know better.

it's not just "must haves"....it's the new releases as not even half the high def movie owners are looking to replace their entire DVD library just yet...

but rather...you're seeing alot of the new movies selling in large numbers....

BD's top movies have been mostly new releases...

HD DVD's top movies have been a mix of both because they simple don't have many new releases...