Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by Ender14

All of those have already been released in theaters. I know because I saw two of them. The ONLY reason this is happening is because theaters are closed. The tiny pittance they'll get from streaming is better than nothing. This will not become the norm, especially for big blockbusters.

Okay, I changed it to "While in Theaters." The Movies did come out before they closed, but I still think for some Movies the Early Access might become a model that the Studios will pursue. Blockbusters will still come out in Theaters, but I think will go early to Streaming depending on the Movie and Box Office Receipts.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Well it's happening guys, Vudu has jumped into the Frey. They are offering three Movies while in Theaters. The Invisible Man, The Hunt, and Emma, Rent for $20. They call it Theater at Home, Early Access, at the Comfort of Home. This is the tip of the Iceberg, get ready for the New Streaming Access, courtesy of Vudu!

https://www.vudu.com/content/movies/home

Yeah, thanks for the retro news flash that we all knew about several hours ago.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Okay, I changed it to "While in Theaters." The Movies did come out before they closed, but I still think for some Movies the Early Access might become a model that the Studios will pursue. Blockbusters will still come out in Theaters, but I think will go early to Streaming depending on the Movie and Box Office Receipts.

All of domestic video on demand in 2019 made $1.958 billion and that was down 6.19% from 2018.

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...ment-report-2/

Domestic box office receipts in 2019 were $11.351 billion. That's 5.8 times more than what video on demand made.

https://www.the-numbers.com/market/

It is pretty obvious to see that the box office earns vastly more revenue than video on demand.

The pandemic will give video on demand a temporary boost, but video on demand can in no way replace the infinitely superior experience of seeing a movie at the theater. When the option to go to the cinema returns, that's what people will prefer by far just as the revenue for both makes plain.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by cheez avenger

Pig out and drink. Don't forget about the libations.

Can’t drink buddy.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

But growth . . . is still growth. What was the number for 2019? Something like $2.6 billion for EST?

As opposed to physical disc which continues it's decline in double digit numbers.

I firmly believe history will show that the format just didn’t have the legs.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

I firmly believe history will show that the format just didn’t have the legs.

And yet every year is has a + growth. I would call that legs.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

And yet every year is has a + growth. I would call that legs.

Nah, Like Wendell said a while back, think of all the millions of devices out there that playback Digital HD, think of the very pushy early releases the format received, to show such small growth is not good at this stage in its life. Subscription is where the real money is, the studios have already lost interest in the format. The lack of noise from the studios tells me far more than anything else could.

Anyway, let’s see who is right. Time will tell.

[sapiendut]

$20 rental but not 4K and no atmos. Sigh. Perfect mediocrity.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Nah, Like Wendell said a while back, think of all the millions of devices out there that playback Digital HD

Yes, EST and VOD should be doing much better than they are just based upon the number of devices capable of playing content from said providers. SVOD and AVOD is now the focus of content providers. HD ownership was a fail and the reason UV shut down and Vudu is up for sale.

From almost a year ago and does not include mobile devices. A quick add shows about 200 million devices.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Yes, EST and VOD should be doing much better than they are just based upon the number of devices capable of playing content from said providers. SVOD and AVOD is now the focus of content providers. HD ownership was a fail and the reason UV shut down and Vudu is up for sale.

From almost a year ago and does not include mobile devices. A quick add shows about 200 million devices.

[Show spoiler]

So many ways to be underwhelmed.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by sapiendut

$20 rental but not 4K and no atmos. Sigh. Perfect mediocrity.

Premium mediocrity.

Who doesn't love paying more and getting less?

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

And yet every year is has a + growth. I would call that legs.

EST has the legs of a toddler, short and stubby at best. Just 5.12% growth in 2019 when it was 14.43% in 2018.

After all of the many years that EST has existed, and with all of the array of devices with which it can be viewed, its sales revenue still lags behind that of physical media. The gap between them is closing, sure, but look how long it is taking?

It is also import to consider that the very act of purchasing content is in decline. Purchase revenue of both disc and digital combined has fallen 38.2% since 2011. People are buying less and they are subscribing more; that is what the year over year data has been showing us.

This link will show you the figures for each year since 2011 and up through 2019:

https://www.degonline.org/industry-data/

[Vilya]

It looks like that $1 trillion U.S. stimulus package is ballooning closer to $2 trillion now as they look to expand the assistance even further. A final vote on it could come as soon as Monday.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/polit...rus/index.html

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Vilya

EST has the legs of a toddler, short and stubby at best. Just 5.12% growth in 2019 when it was 14.43% in 2018.

After all of the many years that EST has existed, and with all of the array of devices with which it can be viewed, its sales revenue still lags behind that of physical media. The gap between them is closing, sure, but look how long it is taking?

It is also import to consider that the very act of purchasing content is in decline. Purchase revenue of both disc and digital combined has fallen 38.2% since 2011. People are buying less and they are subscribing more; that is what the year over year data has been showing us.

This link will show you the figures for each year since 2011 and up through 2019:

https://www.degonline.org/industry-data/

How about separating disc from digital - see how that works out from 2011 to 2019.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

How about separating disc from digital - see how that works out from 2011 to 2019.

I have already done that many times and that is the entire point: people are buying less and subscribing more. Disc sales have fallen 63.2% since 2011 and, yes, that is a much steeper decline than the decline of all purchases combined. Still, purchasing behavior has increasingly shifted towards using subscription streaming. People just don't want to spend $20 to buy a single movie as often as they once did when that same $20 will get them two or more subscription streaming services.

The single digit growth of EST is not changing this overall downward trend nor is the double digit growth in 4K disc sales. At best, EST, like 4K discs themselves, are speed bumps slowing, but not reversing, this steady decline in overall purchases. A 38.2% drop in overall sales means that both EST and 4K discs are just slicing themselves a bigger slice of an ever smaller pie.

[Steedeel]

Lee probably thinks MP3 downloads are going to make a comeback!

[LordSummerIsle]

Originally Posted by Vilya

It looks like that $1 trillion U.S. stimulus package is ballooning closer to $2 trillion now as they look to expand the assistance even further. A final vote on it could come as soon as Monday.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/polit...rus/index.html

So we'll actually see the money by the end of the year!

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

What do they need to come back from? They are still widely available.

So am I for a date with a hot lady but I don’t get many takers.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by scwilli1

So we'll actually see the money by the end of the year!

The stated goal is to have the direct payments in our hands within two weeks.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

Neither physical media nor EST will ever be the dominant form of home media but neither of them are in any danger of dying either. I expect that some of the digital providers will shutdown and some titles will be removed from all digital providers. But I firmly believe that the most popular movies and music will remain available on iTunes and Amazon for a very long time.

Yes but the actual discussion was about Digital HD growth. Your post about MP3 still being available was irrelevant.