Warner Sending Entire 2021 Slate to HBO Max and Theaters.

[MattJ1991]

Originally Posted by atomik kinder

As of Oct 2, 2020, AT&T had $151.7 Billion in debt. They do not have money to burn.

I never said it was logical, just that they're doing it. Just look at Justice league, they've shown that they're willing to throw lots of money around to get content.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by MattJ1991

I never said it was logical, just that they're doing it. Just look at Justice league, they've shown that they're willing to throw lots of money around to get content.

Absolutely!

The Big Bang Theory lands exclusively on HBO Max in deal reportedly worth more than $1 billion

The $425 million HBO Max spent on ‘Friends’ is working out

[Lee A Stewart]

Universal Continues To Dominate Paltry Pandemic Post-Thanksgiving B.O. As Town Reels From Warner-HBO Max Windows Bombshell

Even though parent company AT&T has a market cap of $210.5 billion, which isn’t that far from Netflix’s $220.1B and Disney’s $278.5B, imagine if AT&T had a share price that was even close to those two latter companies.

Since movie theaters shut down, Netflix’s share price is up 39% as of Friday, going from $357.32 back on March 18 to $498.31 as of Friday. Disney’s is up 57%, moving from $98.12 to $154.14 over the same time frame; the amazing story with them is that the pandemic’s financial ruin on theatrical and theme parks didn’t rain on the Mouse House’s parade, which is electric, thanks to streamer Disney+.

And how has AT&T been over this time frame? They’re only +5%, going from $28.09 to $29.54; hence the desperate move to put its entire 2021 theatrical catalog on HBO Max (some still don’t get the whole initial month thing timed with theaters, better to drop the movies 30 days later and keep them there. The first 30 day window on HBO Max is only apt to create account cancellations, which is the general thinking among industry sources).

https://deadline.com/2020/12/univers...ll-1234651156/

[CelestialAgent]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Universal Continues To Dominate Paltry Pandemic Post-Thanksgiving B.O. As Town Reels From Warner-HBO Max Windows Bombshell

https://deadline.com/2020/12/univers...ll-1234651156/

Surely Universal is a lesson in a smaller window is no bad thing then?

[Aclea]

Originally Posted by mpstjohn

So then its WB's money to burn I guess. I don't see them taking out loans to make their movies like MGM did with No Time To Die.

Actually they do, mixing ongoing credit lines from banks, operating capital and additional project specific bank financing along with outside investors to spread the risk: Legendary started out purely investing in Warners films with no other input before falling out with them and being replaced by RatPac-Dune until Brett Ratner's sexual harassment issues made them too toxic to work with anymore. Studios try to avoiding using their own money as much as possible unless it's a sure thing like the Harry Potter sequels.

[Aclea]

Originally Posted by xbs2034

Sounds like Legendary might try and legally challenge the move of putting Godzilla vs Kong and Dune on HBO Max day one

https://deadline.com/2020/12/warnerm...ng-1234651283/

It's pretty clear that Warners completely botched their handling of this - not only were talent not told but neither were investors or production companies, which means having to negotiate buyouts with profit participants on worse terms because of the bad will they've needlessly created and expensive law suits they can't win, only drag out, not to mention the ongoing, possibly irreparable damage to their reputation as the most filmmaker friendly studio. Management will stay in place for a while to avoid a hit to the share price, but the guys who signed off on this know their days are numbered.

[captveg]

Originally Posted by Aclea

It's pretty clear that Warners completely botched their handling of this - not only were talent not told but neither were investors or production companies, which means having to negotiate buyouts with profit participants on worse terms because of the bad will they've needlessly created and expensive law suits they can't win, only drag out, not to mention the ongoing, possibly irreparable damage to their reputation as the most filmmaker friendly studio. Management will stay in place for a while to avoid a hit to the share price, but the guys who signed off on this know their days are numbered.

They are taking the gamble that the 2021 box office is unlikely to even show signs of recovery until Q3, and that in that context the theatrical + HBO Max shared release strategy is the only way anyone makes a decent return on anything in 2021.

[Jennifer Lawrence Fan]

Originally Posted by Aclea

It's pretty clear that Warners completely botched their handling of this - not only were talent not told but neither were investors or production companies, which means having to negotiate buyouts with profit participants on worse terms because of the bad will they've needlessly created and expensive law suits they can't win, only drag out, not to mention the ongoing, possibly irreparable damage to their reputation as the most filmmaker friendly studio. Management will stay in place for a while to avoid a hit to the share price, but the guys who signed off on this know their days are numbered.

People realizing this is a dumb idea now.

Especially when they likely didn't talk to anybody and just decided on a whim to do this.

But anyone who came up with this idea


Just pure desperation on WB's part to catch up to D+ really.

[Britnasty]

There’s no way in hell WB didn’t sit down with their 200 lawyers on staff and comb through all their contracts to make sure this was legal. They’re not stupid.

[Jennifer Lawrence Fan]

Originally Posted by Britnasty

There’s no way in hell WB didn’t sit down with their 200 lawyers on staff and comb through all their contracts to make sure this was legal. They’re not stupid.

Well, you never know.

people claim how Stupid Hollywood is.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Jennifer Lawrence Fan

Well, you never know.

people claim how Stupid Hollywood is.

Arrogant, Thieving and Overly Optimistic. But definitely not Stupid.

[imsounoriginal]

CNBC: The home of the Sopranos is under siege: Inside the battle for the soul of HBO

• CNBC spoke with more than a dozen former and current WarnerMedia executives to gauge how John Stankey and Jason Kilar are progressing with HBO Max.
  
• Many executives expressed concerns about rushed decision making and the disintegration of Time Warner’s creative culture.
  
• While HBO Max’s launch has been bumpy, Stankey has proved to be out in front of big media reorganizations.

[captveg]

This comes across as scared old Hollywood to me. They don't like change, but change is coming whether they like it or not. The pandemic simply supercharged the timeline.

[Aclea]

Originally Posted by captveg

They are taking the gamble that the 2021 box office is unlikely to even show signs of recovery until Q3, and that in that context the theatrical + HBO Max shared release strategy is the only way anyone makes a decent return on anything in 2021.

Which wasn't the point I was making: as numerous talent agencies and Legendary's rumblings have underlined, it's the way they handled implementing it by not telling any of the interested parties involved - filmmakers, investors, production companies - that is going to cause them huge problems. With WW84 they obviuously spent a lot of time renegotiating the deal with Jenkins and Gadot and getting them onboard before announcing, but in this case they didn't even phone the people who made the films to let them know: when a company that put over $300m into two films finds out by reading it in the trades, that's way beyond unprofessional and into the potentially criminally irresponsible.

No way is that not going to have huge longterm consequences.

[JayTL]

Originally Posted by imsounoriginal

CNBC: The home of the Sopranos is under siege: Inside the battle for the soul of HBO

Originally Posted by captveg

This comes across as scared old Hollywood to me. They don't like change, but change is coming whether they like it or not. The pandemic simply supercharged the timeline.

I would agree with you capt, but honestly all those concerns are on par with major AT&T decisions

[captveg]

Originally Posted by JayTL

I would agree with you capt, but honestly all those concerns are on par with major AT&T decisions

AT&T/WB may very well get some details wrong to where things are headed, but they are likely on the correct path.

[captveg]

Originally Posted by Aclea

Which wasn't the point I was making: as numerous talent agencies and Legendary's rumblings have underlined, it's the way they handled implementing it by not telling any of the interested parties involved - filmmakers, investors, production companies - that is going to cause them huge problems. With WW84 they obvuously spent a lot of time renegotiating the deal with Jenkins and Gadot and getting them onboard before announcing, but in this case they didn't even phone the people who made the films to let them know: when a company that put over $300m into two films finds out by reading it in the trades, that's way beyond unprofessional and into the potentially criminally irresponsible.

No way is that not going to have huge longterm consequences.

We'll see. Legendary may have a point, but where are they going to run to? They'll be getting fractions of their investment dollars via any distribution strategy right now. Are they really willing to continually delay GvK another handful of times until 2023 in order to make the money it should have made in 2020?

[Aclea]

Originally Posted by captveg

We'll see. Legendary may have a point, but where are they going to run to? They'll be getting fractions of their investment dollars via any distribution strategy right now. Are they really willing to continually delay GvK another handful of times until 2023 in order to make the money it should have made in 2020?

Warners - a minority stakeholder whose first position recoupment is based solely on a traditional theatrical first release - stopped them selling to Netflix for $250m and are basically forcing a deal on them that will make them peanuts, so the first stop would be the courts for breach of contract and/or restraint of trade.

The Netflix deal would have covered both Legendary and Warners' investment and made a modest profit for both. What Warners are trying to impose benefits only Warner Bros since HBO Max will benefit from streaming while Warners deal allows them to recoup all marketing expenses first and charge a distribution fee on top (which was $39.8m on G14). With the reduced box-office that could quite feasibly result in Legendary not only making nothing from the deal but actually owing Warner Bros. money.

The most likely scenario is that by unanimously deciding to dump the film as a loss leader on HBO Max without informing them after blocking the Netflix deal, for GvK Legendary would probably sue for that $250m plus punitive damages.

[captveg]

Originally Posted by Aclea

Warners - a minority stakeholder whose first position recoupment is based solely on a traditional theatrical first release - stopped them selling to Netflix for $250m and are basically forcing a deal on them that will make them peanuts, so the first stop would be the courts for breach of contract and/or restraint of trade.

The Netflix deal would have covered both Legendary and arners' investment and made a modest profit for both. What Warners are trying to impose benefits only Warner Bros since HBO Max will benefit from streaming while Warners deal allows them to recoup all marketing expenses first and charge a distribution fee on top (which was $39.8m on G14). With the reduced box-office that could quite feasibly result in Legendary not only making nothing from the deal but actually owing Warner Bros. money.

The most likely scenario is that by unanimously deciding to dump the film as a loss leader on HBO Max without informing them after blocking the Netflix deal, for GvK Legendary would probably sue for that $250m plus punitive damages.

There is no way WB is ever allowing this film to be sold to another entity. Not when they have distribution locked in on the three previous films in the series. That package is worth far more as a whole set of four films than as 3/4ths of a set.

More than likely WB will buy out Legendary's shortcomings if it comes to that so that Legendary gets exactly what they would have from a Netflix sale, but no more. Right now there's still potential for Legendary to get more, based on non-US box office alone. This is still getting a theatrical release in all markets, as is Dune.

[craigbarr2003]

Originally Posted by captveg

Right now there's still potential for Legendary to get more, based on non-US box office alone. This is still getting a theatrical release in all markets, as is Dune.

That's only in the press release. AT&T is currently planning to launch HBO Max in other global markets during the 2021 calendar year. How many remains to be seen, but expect to see it in some other large international markets before DUNE is scheduled for release in October.