HS Baseball Phenom leaves after Sophomore year... Thoughts

[ludawg23]

I think there's a big difference in drafting a player out of high school in the NBA than any other sport.

Talent evalutors in the NBA are usually dead-on when they designate player "XYZ" as the next phenom. NBA teams will not burn a lottery pick on a high school graduate unless they know 100% sure that such player will become a star

Players that have made the jump from high school directly to the NBA:

Darryl Dawkins
Moses Malone

Now between 1976-1995, no high school players made the jump to the NBA

1995 and on...

KG - star
Kobe - star
Jermaine O'Neal - solid career
Tracy McGrady
Al Harrington
Rashard Lewis
Lebron
Dwight Howard
Amare
Livingston - tragic knee injury
Tyson Chandler
Eddy Curry - Bust but still rich
Bynum
Perkins
Al Jefferson

That's a pretty impressive list and most of these guys are either superstars, have had solid careers or on their way to stardom. There are about 5-10 players who are not doing much but are still on NBA rosters and improving their game. But hey, at least they have time on their side.

As for baseball, there's so much talent out there and just not enough MLB roster spots. We could probably come up with a gigantic list of high school "superstars" who amount to nothing and spend most of their careers in the minors or get derailed by injuries.

Bryce may have a bright future but he's playing against the odds.

[fatediesel]

Originally Posted by toefer

I think a lot of it also comes down to the parents, and the environment people are raised in. If you look at someone like Tyler Hansbrough... he probably has no shot at an NBA career, so he did the smart thing and stayed in school. His decision might've also been influenced by his parents. His dad's a surgeon, and I'm sure is making a comfortable living. If you have that stereotypical story of a guy who was raised by a single mom, in a poor neighborhood, maybe the appeal of quickly signing a professional deal is too much to turn down, because he can finally get his family out of the ghetto.

Tyler Hansbrough is going to be a first round draft pick and barring injury should have a long NBA career. I understand where you're coming from though, if you enjoy college and don't need to support your family why not stay in college and have fun being the most popular person on campus. Matt Leinart was the same way. Could have been the number 1 pick for the 49ers but stayed in school to try to win another national title (fail) and another Heisman Trophy (fail).

An interesting example was the Florida Gators basketball team that won the National Title a couple years ago. They had 3 great players, and they collectively decided either they all would come back or none would come back. Joakim Noah and Al Hortford were both from decent economic backgrounds, as Noah's dad was a former French Open champion. However, the third player, Corey Brewer, had poor parents, his father was in a wheelchair with severe diabetes, and his mother was a special ed teacher. He could have gone pro and got them a big house but they wanted him to go to school another year so he did, won another National Title, and then got drafted 7th by the Minnesota Timberwolves.

[DonRSD]

Originally Posted by DonRSD

finish up school then enjoy your college years.
what a dope......goes to show you that todays society = get the money NOW as opposed to building yourself for the future (college)

funny thing is that NOBODY ever mentions a peep about the dominicans, cubans etc that come into the mlb famr systems at age 16-17

[toef]

Originally Posted by DonRSD

funny thing is that NOBODY ever mentions a peep about the dominicans, cubans etc that come into the mlb famr systems at age 16-17

Sure they do, but you probably just don't listen to it.

The difference is that US-born players are afforded a lot more opportunities in life. For a lot of players in Cuba and DR, baseball is their way out.

[sfmarine]

Impressive kid. He should finish HS and let the Yankees pick him up. Jorge has a few years left and we'll be needing a new catcher.

However, the Majors is a huge jump from HS. If he'd really want the experience he should go to College and get his degree. The college level is a great way to get drafted/recognized. He'll also have to change to a wooden bat. That aluminum bat makes the ball fly. It's a big adjustment. He's already made the cover of SI so it looks like we'll be hearing a lot about him in the upcoming years.

[toef]

Originally Posted by sfmarine

Impressive kid. He should finish HS and let the Yankees pick him up. Jorge has a few years left and we'll be needing a new catcher.

However, the Majors is a huge jump from HS. If he'd really want the experience he should go to College and get his degree. The college level is a great way to get drafted/recognized. He'll also have to change to a wooden bat. That aluminum bat makes the ball fly. It's a big adjustment.

Yankees have 20-year old Jesus Montero, a top prospect, waiting in the wings, to one day take over for Posada.

It looks like Posada can't play more than 2 games in a row without a day off now, so he may become more of a DH by next season. Not sure Montero will be ready by then, so they might use Cervelli to bridge the gap between Posada and Montero, if Montero is on hold until 2011.

He's apparently an insanely good/powerful hitter.

[Chordata]

Originally Posted by fatediesel

An interesting example was the Florida Gators basketball team that won the National Title a couple years ago. They had 3 great players, and they collectively decided either they all would come back or none would come back. Joakim Noah and Al Hortford were both from decent economic backgrounds, as Noah's dad was a former French Open champion. However, the third player, Corey Brewer, had poor parents, his father was in a wheelchair with severe diabetes, and his mother was a special ed teacher. He could have gone pro and got them a big house but they wanted him to go to school another year so he did, won another National Title, and then got drafted 7th by the Minnesota Timberwolves.

You ruined an excellent thread by referencing the Gators. I have to go purge now.

[mj79]

Originally Posted by Dr.Zoidberg

How many "phenoms" never make it to the bigs....too many to count....not saying that he will or will not make it just stating that this guy may be another "what could have been" in 5 years...

Very true, BUT i posted this not as another "phenom" but as someonewho MANY MANY people , think has the ability ABOVE players in the past, with more maturity than some double his age..


I have done alot more searching after i found this, and at near 100 mph pitches, a near 500 BA against 100 mph fastballs and the ability to see the "whole " game better than some people twice his age in the game, i just though his size and speed would be an added factor to his development .. But yea i think he needs a diploma or needs to finish HS at very least

[sfmarine]

Originally Posted by toefer

Yankees have 20-year old Jesus Montero, a top prospect, waiting in the wings, to one day take over for Posada.

It looks like Posada can't play more than 2 games in a row without a day off now, so he may become more of a DH by next season. Not sure Montero will be ready by then, so they might use Cervelli to bridge the gap between Posada and Montero, if Montero is on hold until 2011.

He's apparently an insanely good/powerful hitter.

How did I forget about Montero. I'm currently impressed by Cervelli. Not sure what will happen to him but he'll probably end back up in Scranton. What do you think will happen to Matsui since he's been playing a lot of DH? The outfield will get interesting in the next few years. There's talk that Jeter will end up in the outfield(4-5 years). Gardner is a great athlete and him and Melky have been battling it out for the starting position. Not sure how long Damon will be around. I think he's a great guy. Met him in Tampa. Very nice to the fans but he's getting up there with his injuries. Originally, Posada was going to go to 1st but that's not happening with Teixeira doing what he's been doing.

[fatediesel]

So is Harper going to play baseball for the community college next year? I know that community college players are eligible to be drafted at any time, unlike players that go to 4-year colleges that must wait 3 years after high school if they play college ball. I think it'd be smarter to go to high school another year and either graduate early or get his GED prior to the draft and let him enjoy another year of high school and playing with his high school teammates.

[toef]

Originally Posted by sfmarine

How did I forget about Montero. I'm currently impressed by Cervelli. Not sure what will happen to him but he'll probably end back up in Scranton. What do you think will happen to Matsui since he's been playing a lot of DH? The outfield will get interesting in the next few years. There's talk that Jeter will end up in the outfield(4-5 years). Gardner is a great athlete and him and Melky have been battling it out for the starting position. Not sure how long Damon will be around. I think he's a great guy. Met him in Tampa. Very nice to the fans but he's getting up there with his injuries. Originally, Posada was going to go to 1st but that's not happening with Teixeira doing what he's been doing.

I think Cervelli will be with the team for the rest of the year. Posada is my favorite player, but he's getting too old to catch (he's 37, I think). It used to be that he played every day, but they'd give him the day off if it was a day game following a night game. Now he gets a couple days off a week, or at least a couple DH days. Because of that, I think they'll keep Cervelli around, because who else do they have?

Matsui is done after this year. I feel bad for him, because it's not like he did anything wrong. He's just getting old, and the Yankees have too many outfielders. Either him or Damon have to be let go, but it's possible the Yankees let both go. Damon is a huge fan-favorite, and brings a lot to the clubhouse, and is having a great year, so if he's willing to take a 1-year deal, I can see him coming back next year. But last time a team didn't give him what he thought he deserved, he left (see: Boston), despite the fans loving him there. He also was ready to retire a couple years ago (in 2007 he told Torre he was quitting, during spring training), to spend more time with his kids, so I wouldn't be too surprised if he just calls it quits. A lot of people think Damon gets injured a lot, and maybe he does, but if you look at the games played each year, he hardly misses any games.

Jeter may move to the outfield, but I think he has too much pride to do that. He may just hang it up when he realizes he can't play shortstop anymore (his range is already starting to shrink).

~~~~

As for Harper, he's certainly pretty talented, but it's a mistake to look at his numbers out of context. I consistently batted over .400 in high school, but never thought of trying to play in college. High school pitching, for the most part, is a joke, and batting averages are insanely high. Even college baseball averages are pretty high.

So he definitely appears to have talent, but we'll have to wait and see how he does when he starts to face more talented people. You'll rarely see a teenager in the majors these days, so this guy has at least 3-4 years ahead of him before getting called up.

[sfmarine]

Originally Posted by toefer

Matsui is done after this year. I feel bad for him, because it's not like he did anything wrong. He's just getting old, and the Yankees have too many outfielders. Either him or Damon have to be let go, but it's possible the Yankees let both go. Damon is a huge fan-favorite, and brings a lot to the clubhouse, and is having a great year, so if he's willing to take a 1-year deal, I can see him coming back next year. But last time a team didn't give him what he thought he deserved, he left (see: Boston), despite the fans loving him there. He also was ready to retire a couple years ago (in 2007 he told Torre he was quitting, during spring training), to spend more time with his kids, so I wouldn't be too surprised if he just calls it quits. A lot of people think Damon gets injured a lot, and maybe he does, but if you look at the games played each year, he hardly misses any games.

You're right on that part. Damon does play ALOT. He may be injured but he keeps on going. I hated him when he was in Boston, obviously lol but he grew on me as a Yankee. And when he came up to me in Tampa that really did it for me. Of course I didn't bring any balls to get signed... The Tampa complex is a whole different atmosphere from the Bronx. You can't get anything @ the stadium but Tampa is very laid back for the most part and as I've figured out during spring training, it's very easy to get auto's. Reggie was doing it as well. I was ticked off about Tino...he didn't even acknowledge us as well as Shelley Duncan but who cares about Shelley lol.

Originally Posted by toefer

Jeter may move to the outfield, but I think he has too much pride to do that. He may just hang it up when he realizes he can't play shortstop anymore (his range is already starting to shrink).

You're right about Pride. It's got to be hard to realize that you just don't have it anymore. He's 34 now and you can clearly tell that he's starting to get up there. I don't know if you saw that play the other day where his old teammate Sheffield slid into him to avoid the dp and Jeter completely jumped over him and threw to 1st(while in the air) for the double play(he makes it seem so easy). I thought it was a little greedy because he was out of the baseline but that's old school for you. Jeter still has it for the most part but he's not the percentage he was back in the Dynasty days. I'd like to see him on the team as long as possible. He still hasn't started a family yet so you'd assume that's part of his goal sometime down the road. He's dated a lot of well, hotties along his stint as a Yankee. I'm not sure what he'll do after he retires. I can't see him as a Manager. He is pretty quiet and he's been known for that. Maybe up in the booth. Who knows. I hate talking about it because it's sad to think that the Number 2 may not be in the field much longer.

[toef]

Originally Posted by sfmarine

You're right on that part. Damon does play ALOT. He may be injured but he keeps on going. I hated him when he was in Boston, obviously lol but he grew on me as a Yankee. And when he came up to me in Tampa that really did it for me. Of course I didn't bring any balls to get signed... The Tampa complex is a whole different atmosphere from the Bronx. You can't get anything @ the stadium but Tampa is very laid back for the most part and as I've figured out during spring training, it's very easy to get auto's. Reggie was doing it as well. I was ticked off about Tino...he didn't even acknowledge us as well as Shelley Duncan but who cares about Shelley lol.


You're right about Pride. It's got to be hard to realize that you just don't have it anymore. He's 34 now and you can clearly tell that he's starting to get up there. I don't know if you saw that play the other day where his old teammate Sheffield slid into him to avoid the dp and Jeter completely jumped over him and threw to 1st(while in the air) for the double play(he makes it seem so easy). I thought it was a little greedy because he was out of the baseline but that's old school for you. Jeter still has it for the most part but he's not the percentage he was back in the Dynasty days. I'd like to see him on the team as long as possible. He still hasn't started a family yet so you'd assume that's part of his goal sometime down the road. He's dated a lot of well, hotties along his stint as a Yankee. I'm not sure what he'll do after he retires. I can't see him as a Manager. He is pretty quiet and he's been known for that. Maybe up in the booth. Who knows. I hate talking about it because it's sad to think that the Number 2 may not be in the field much longer.

I'll respond to this in the MLB thread, because I feel bad keeping this one off-topic.

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=93191