Commentary from the Insiders Thread

[lymzy]

Originally Posted by David Vaughn

So, taking this statement above from someone on the inside, then the yields on combo discs are somewhere in the range of 51%-94%,

Replicators’ Show and Tell session on BD and HD DVD manufacturing


According to this article from Oct.2006. 15/9 combo was at 75% yield and 5s cycle time.


Also there is a summary of this article from AVS archive:

For Blu-ray production:

15-20% of Sony BD capability is the film lines running at 70% yield for the foreseeable future.
75-80% of Sony BD capability is the more advanced spin lines running at 80% yield, possibly rise to 90%.
30% of production available for DL50 discs
No mention of cycle time.

To date: 1,000,000 / 35 titles = 28,571 average copies pressed per Blu-ray title

For HD DVD production:

SL15 DL30 running at 85% yield 3 sec or 3,5 sec cycle time " as a startup"
DL15/9 running at 75% yield, 5 sec cycle time

A DVD9 line can produce 25,000-30,000 discs per day
HD DVD DL30 production 15,000-20,000 disc per day(1.2 times DVD9 line cost)
HD DVD SL15/DVD9 combo 8,000-12,000 disc per day (2.0 times DVD9 line cost)
HD DVD DL30/DVD9 combo 5,000-10,000 disc per day (2.5 times DVD9 line cost)

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by David Vaughn

You are free to believe what you want. I am just reporting what has been told to me.

You have obviously never worked in a large company before. People get slightly different information or remember it slightly differently. That doesn't change the underlying issue that I have presented.

I believe that Paramount's numbers will be a lot different that Panasonic's and I don't think Paramount actually press their own discs.

I have worked at Panasonic since 1999 and although I'm not in any way part of the Blu-ray disc area, I am trying to get authorization to find out real figures for the BD50 discs at PDMC.

It may never come of course - Panasonic are pretty quiet about EVERYTHING regardless of what field it is from.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by dobyblue

I have worked at Panasonic since 1999 and although I'm not in any way part of the Blu-ray disc area, I am trying to get authorization to find out real figures for the BD50 discs at PDMC.

It may never come of course - Panasonic are pretty quiet about EVERYTHING regardless of what field it is from.

Don't even bother, like I said, these numbers are fiercely guarded secrets, getting anyone to talk about real numbers is nearly impossible.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by darinp2

Or they went from 60-70% all the way to about 80% today in a relatively short time, which would be a good sign as far as where things are going. I don't doubt that there are those who wanted to claim they wouldn't improve much from 60-70% who will now want to claim that they won't improve much from 80%, but a lot of improvement in a short amount of time would be a good sign IMO. Especially if that improvement was at a place that hasn't been doing BD25s all that long. For the place outside of Sony that now has 50% yields for BD50s, I wonder what they were 3, 6, or 9 months ago and what BD25 yields were then.

--Darin

I have no reason to believe that Panasonic's BD25 yields would be less than they were in 2005, which was at 80%.

I do believe that the blogs and other sites will see David's numbers and report them as facts that show no-one is able to use BD50's very well and at the end of the day perhaps that is what was intended by releasing these very unverified numbers.

IE - HD DVD playing chess.

[dobyblue]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

Don't even bother, like I said, these numbers are fiercely guarded secrets, getting anyone to talk about real numbers is nearly impossible.

I've sent off a few e-mails, but I know I won't hear anything back until at least after CEDIA, because that's where anyone who knows anything is right now from Panasonic USA.

[NutsAboutPS3]

Originally Posted by David Vaughn

Another Employee at separate Independent replication facility

This person goes on to tell me much of the same things that I have been hearing from those above, that yields are very low when a lot of data is on the disc (both BD25’s and BD50’s), but the average yields on BD25’s are in the 60-70% range, and at 50% for BD50’s. He then told me that Sony had helped them in their processing and that their yields were consistent with what Sony was getting in their facilities.

So, David, you appear to be saying that Exec. Vp & Gen.Mgr. Mike Mitchell was lying through his teeth in Oct 2006 : "Yields are averaging 80% on single-layer 25-GB media -- about the same rates quoted on our May plant tour. Yields are “ever so slightly less" on dual-layer, he said"

I think most people would agree that 50% is not "ever so slightly less" than 80%, so you are accusing Mike Mitchell of lying?

http://64.233.183.104/search?q=cache...n&ct=clnk&cd=6

[NutsAboutPS3]

If somebody doesn't mind registering for the free trial, this article might have some interesting information from May 2007:
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m...5/ai_n19222937

[PaulGo]

Corporative executives will spin facts to make their business look good. Microsoft is a master of this. With the Xbox 360 they never admitted to a substantial defect with their product until they had to. Sony kep on saying their PS3 would be delivered many months befor it actually was. Slightly less could mean anything when said by a corporate executive.

I have two PS3s and I think Blu-ray will prevail, but it just doesn't pay to get wound up by every fact or figure.

[TheLion]

Originally Posted by darinp2

But are discs in GB this way, or is 50GB really 50,000,000,000 bytes (not the 1024 version) like I think hard drives use?

--Darin

Darin,

50GB really is 50,000,000,000 bytes, just like HD-DVDs specs state 30,000,000,000 bytes for HD30.

It is called GiB (pronounced Gibi Bytes and meaning Giga-binary Bytes). So 50/30GiB would be correct.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by David Vaughn

Scott,

Thanks for the show of support (I think ), and I am concerned just as much as you are in this. If people would actually read what I wrote, they could see that I stated on more than one occasion is that at this point and time, yields don't matter . But, when adoption rates increase to the point when hopefully 5 million discs are needed for a new release, if the yields on BD50's are in the 50% range, then I think we, as consumers, should be concerned because the cost will be passed along to us.
...

Well I've waded through all this verbiage re: yield rates, and think I've found where the story is, or is meant to be -- it's in the last sentence of the above quote. The reason why we should pay attention to all these anonymous claims to yields, David says, is that there could be a problem in the future. This is the justification for dragging out the whole laborious business. That's the nub of the story-- not that BD has a problem now, but that it "might later" with BD50s: they might be too expensive and we might have to pay up.

I hate to pour cold water on all this, but there isn't much of a story here at all, because David does not raise a very reasonable concern. There's no advance indication whatever that his scenario will actually occur -- that it will not turn out that in good time, as the number of BD50s pressed increases, so will the yield rate. In fact there are excellent indications to the contrary. For every other major optical medium (CD, DVD variants) yields have improved as manufacturing processes have been refined, and this has not generally occurred too late for the market. There is no reason prima facie to suppose otherwise for BD50. Obviously the BD50 manufacturers themselves are persuaded there will be no problem here. Why should there be any fear, uncertainty or doubt for us?

In some ways there is the face of a good investigative journalist here -- checking numerous sources, defending their right to anonymity and (it appears) being scrupulous enough with the facts as he can get them.
The problem lies in the editorial direction. David raises a worry for the future of BD50 yield rates. Simply put, there is no such worry.

To address this prospective concern in a responsible way, David would have had to have given a specific reason to think that the replicators will not be able to produce BD50s economically in the future, in a way in which there has been no corresponding problem in the past for other optical formats. In the nature of the case this reason would have to be a highly technical one. It would also have to show a degree of foresight in HDM manufacturing which has totally escaped those committed to the BD50 format to the point of having invested very heavily in it.

I strongly suspect that no such reason will be forthcoming.

[Jamh]

Well said.

[mattym]

"ive got a contact who works for a replication facility, and they tell me that yields are low. I cant prove it at all, it flies in the face of what insiders who should know say, but my friend amir keeps saying it so it must be true. And im an internet journo."

thats what david's message is to me, im sorry if i dont believe it, but i dont...its smoke and mirrors to deflect attention from combo naffness and to try and justify paramounts 'desicion' to back the other side. Paid and Max both are in a position to know the numbers, and both deny it, meanwhile no figures for combo coasters are forthcoming, coincidence? i dont think so...

[WickyWoo]

To address this prospective concern in a responsible way, David would have had to have given a specific reason to think that the replicators will not be able to produce BD50s economically in the future, in a way in which there has been no corresponding problem in the past for other optical formats. In the nature of the case this reason would have to be a highly technical one. It would also have to show a degree of foresight in HDM manufacturing which has totally escaped those committed to the BD50 format to the point of having invested very heavily in it.

I strongly suspect that no such reason will be forthcoming.

And that pretty much sums it up right there

David? Not trying to be sarcastic here, but please do tell us your reasoning.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by lymzy

Replicators’ Show and Tell session on BD and HD DVD manufacturing


According to this article from Oct.2006. 15/9 combo was at 75% yield and 5s cycle time.


Also there is a summary of this article from AVS archive:

For Blu-ray production:

15-20% of Sony BD capability is the film lines running at 70% yield for the foreseeable future.
75-80% of Sony BD capability is the more advanced spin lines running at 80% yield, possibly rise to 90%.
30% of production available for DL50 discs
No mention of cycle time.

To date: 1,000,000 / 35 titles = 28,571 average copies pressed per Blu-ray title

For HD DVD production:

SL15 DL30 running at 85% yield 3 sec or 3,5 sec cycle time " as a startup"
DL15/9 running at 75% yield, 5 sec cycle time

A DVD9 line can produce 25,000-30,000 discs per day
HD DVD DL30 production 15,000-20,000 disc per day(1.2 times DVD9 line cost)
HD DVD SL15/DVD9 combo 8,000-12,000 disc per day (2.0 times DVD9 line cost)
HD DVD DL30/DVD9 combo 5,000-10,000 disc per day (2.5 times DVD9 line cost)

I don't seem to recall anyone screaming "liar liar" at those numbers when that article was first linked to.

Gary

[WickyWoo]

Notice those numbers do not include HD30/DVD9 combos

Why is that important?

Because the more pieces you add, especially pieces with lower tolerances the bigger your failure rates get

[David Vaughn]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

And that pretty much sums it up right there

David? Not trying to be sarcastic here, but please do tell us your reasoning.

Here is my reasoning. Lets say tomorrow Universal announces support for Blu-ray, Paramount says they made a mistake and are going to release on Blu-ray only, and Warner throws in the towel as well and all we have is Blu-ray with no competition. The flood gates open and mass adoption comes to fruition during Christmas 2007. Now companies need to ramp up to meet the demand that is in the marketplace.

But if the information being given to me is factual (which I have every reason to believe is true), can this demand be met? Will releases be limited because the demand for discs outstrips what can be manufactured? With no subsidies available do the studio's decide that with the higher costs they can do one of two things...raise prices or only release titles that will sell really well in order to get a good ROI for their stockholders.

When Paramount made the switch to HD DVD, I was totally taken aback. Even if they were "paid off", I doubt a company would make such a short term decision given that there is money to be made in the future with HDM, there had to be another reason, a true business reason.

As for looking in the past in that CD's and DVD's were able to be made without any problems given enough time, there is a difference here. Neither of them had a protective layer that is the crux of the problem here. The way the process works is that the coating is "spun" onto the discs and will "puddle" on the outer edge, making any data underneath unreadable. Do I think they will figure it out? Most likely, there are a bunch of very smart people working on this issue. Luckily at this point, there aren't a lot of discs being sold, but when 300 sold as many copies as they did it opened a lot of eyes of the potential costs involved in the replication process. In the end, the studios need to make money, regardless of the format that wins. I just want to be able to view HD media in my home on disc, regardless if it is "Red" or "Blu".

[goenkar]

If Paramount was concerned of future replication costs, why did they pull bd's that were already in the pipeline. What message were they trying to send with that.

[patrick99]

As much as all of us here would like to see those hypothetical assumptions come true, we all know they won't, and wouldn't have even without Paramount's ridiculous move.

[MatrixS2000]

Originally Posted by David Vaughn

HD30, but I do know they're above BD50. Think DVD18's level of yield."

So, taking this statement above from someone on the inside, then the yields on combo discs are somewhere in the range of 51%-94%, or if using the information from Sony's press releases on BD50's, then the range is from 85% to 94%.

But I have had too many contacts from "the inside", so to speak, tell me that the yields on BD50's are nowhere near the 85% range.

Not necessarily as the insider could be believing that the BD50 yield is 51% and place the HD30/9 yield above that but lower than the Sony value of the BD50 yield.

[amillians]

Good news for BD-Live (and FSP) content...no sooner had I asked, then bam, I get an update.

The SCG on 8/28 issued a call for participants for PG3 FSP RRT2 and PG3 LIVE RRT1, with the plugfest for both to be held 9/19-9/20 in Tokyo under Sony's watchful eye...the results for both are due back 10/5.

(also posted at AVS, but I thought some of you here who don't go there would appreciate the update...Talk can neither confirm nor deny it, but I'll vouch for myself)