Commentary from the Insiders Thread

[MatrixS2000]

Originally Posted by David Vaughn

You are free to believe what you want. I am just reporting what has been told to me.

You have obviously never worked in a large company before. People get slightly different information or remember it slightly differently. That doesn't change the underlying issue that I have presented.

Which is EXACTLY why I would put more credibility in a company released statement rather and what an unknown person inside the company would tell me.

In the statement, the company is accountable for it as there is a clearly documented to the public.

In your case with this unknown insider - nothing and easily recanted as you saw when you went back to "update" your numbers.

[David Forbes]

Originally Posted by amillians

Good news for BD-Live (and FSP) content...no sooner had I asked, then bam, I get an update.

The SCG on 8/28 issued a call for participants for PG3 FSP RRT2 and PG3 LIVE RRT1, with the plugfest for both to be held 9/19-9/20 in Tokyo under Sony's watchful eye...the results for both are due back 10/5.

(also posted at AVS, but I thought some of you here who don't go there would appreciate the update...Talk can neither confirm nor deny it, but I'll vouch for myself)

It seems the LG combo player is going to be BD-Live capable. Should be the first to market if it's true.

[David Vaughn]

Let's see, we have public statements from people saying:

"BD50's are science fiction" (Amir) and
"The format War will be over by the end of Q1 (from Fox)

Both were speaking on behalf of their format and companies, so are we to believe either of them? I think not.

[mattym]

Originally Posted by David Vaughn

Let's see, we have public statements from people saying:

"BD50's are science fiction" (Amir) and
"The format War will be over by the end of Q1 (from Fox)

Both were speaking on behalf of their format and companies, so are we to believe either of them? I think not.

i dont see your point. If Amir had said MS will make HDDVD great then yeah you would have a point, but amir is smeering the opposition, and talking about stuff he has nothing to do with, while Fox are marketing a product. In my business you dont rubbish your opponant, you make your product better. Seems amir cant do that.

[MatrixS2000]

Originally Posted by David Vaughn

Here is my reasoning. Lets say tomorrow Universal announces support for Blu-ray, Paramount says they made a mistake and are going to release on Blu-ray only, and Warner throws in the towel as well and all we have is Blu-ray with no competition. The flood gates open and mass adoption comes to fruition during Christmas 2007. Now companies need to ramp up to meet the demand that is in the marketplace.

But if the information being given to me is factual (which I have every reason to believe is true), can this demand be met? Will releases be limited because the demand for discs outstrips what can be manufactured? With no subsidies available do the studio's decide that with the higher costs they can do one of two things...raise prices or only release titles that will sell really well in order to get a good ROI for their stockholders.

When Paramount made the switch to HD DVD, I was totally taken aback. Even if they were "paid off", I doubt a company would make such a short term decision given that there is money to be made in the future with HDM, there had to be another reason, a true business reason.

As for looking in the past in that CD's and DVD's were able to be made without any problems given enough time, there is a difference here. Neither of them had a protective layer that is the crux of the problem here. The way the process works is that the coating is "spun" onto the discs and will "puddle" on the outer edge, making any data underneath unreadable. Do I think they will figure it out? Most likely, there are a bunch of very smart people working on this issue. Luckily at this point, there aren't a lot of discs being sold, but when 300 sold as many copies as they did it opened a lot of eyes of the potential costs involved in the replication process. In the end, the studios need to make money, regardless of the format that wins. I just want to be able to view HD media in my home on disc, regardless if it is "Red" or "Blu".

Anyone can build a hypothetical scenario where a format (doesn't matter which) would come into supply problems....but what does that get you? Nothing - as it's PURE speculation with a lot of assumptions.

[David Forbes]

Dave, even if everyone went neutral tomrorow, or switched completely to BD exclusive, it's still going to be a while before mass adoption takes place. Certainly not for the holiday season 2007.

So it seems reasonable that there is time to figure out whatever replication issues may be out there in regard to either BD50 or HD combos.

[MatrixS2000]

Originally Posted by David Forbes

Dave, even if everyone went neutral tomrorow, or switched completely to BD exclusive, it's still going to be a while before mass adoption takes place. Certainly not for the holiday season 2007.

So it seems reasonable that there is time to figure out whatever replication issues may be out there in regard to either BD50 or HD combos.

Does anyone truly believe that Universal or Paramount could have titles ready on BD for Christmas if they have not started yet? I don't think so...and I really DON'T want any of Universal's 3 point PQ releases.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by David Vaughn

...
But if the information being given to me is factual (which I have every reason to believe is true), can this demand be met? Will releases be limited because the demand for discs outstrips what can be manufactured? With no subsidies available do the studio's decide that with the higher costs they can do one of two things...raise prices or only release titles that will sell really well in order to get a good ROI for their stockholders.
...
As for looking in the past in that CD's and DVD's were able to be made without any problems given enough time, there is a difference here. Neither of them had a protective layer that is the crux of the problem here. The way the process works is that the coating is "spun" onto the discs and will "puddle" on the outer edge, making any data underneath unreadable. Do I think they will figure it out? Most likely, there are a bunch of very smart people working on this issue. Luckily at this point, there aren't a lot of discs being sold, but when 300 sold as many copies as they did it opened a lot of eyes of the potential costs involved in the replication process. In the end, the studios need to make money, regardless of the format that wins. I just want to be able to view HD media in my home on disc, regardless if it is "Red" or "Blu".

Just to clarify your position: You think the protective layer may cause a problem in the timely and economical production of large quantities of BD50s, but that the technicians will solve it. ("A bunch of very smart people are working on it.")

Presumably you're committed to the view that even now the protective layer is reducing BD50 yields (though you hold that this is not yet an issue for the consumer). Phrases like "people are working on it" implies that there is a current problem which is in process of being solved. Have you found any evidence for this? I'm inclined to believe that the protective layer is perfectly innocuous and that even now is not influencing BD50 yields one iota. Temporarily sub-optimal yields must be due to some other factor.

Your conjecture would be well subserved by a technical investigation into the relationship between BD50 yields and the application of the protective layer. This is the sort of inquiry one would expect to have been undertaken by Sony et al. at the time the decision was made to remove the BD media from the protective cartridge housing (back in 2005 was it?).

Painful as it is, one of your sources might have to go on record if your case for this is to be made persuasively. In the meantime relax. You're worrying needlessly about that harmless protective layer. Everyone will be able to afford movies on BD.

[jason_grumpy]

Originally Posted by David Vaughn

Here is my reasoning. Lets say tomorrow Universal announces support for Blu-ray, Paramount says they made a mistake and are going to release on Blu-ray only, and Warner throws in the towel as well and all we have is Blu-ray with no competition. The flood gates open and mass adoption comes to fruition during Christmas 2007. Now companies need to ramp up to meet the demand that is in the marketplace.

I just don't see this scenario playing out, even though I'm an optimist. Lets say this does happen. The war is over and everybody celebrates.

Even then mass adoption like DVD is not going to happen overnight. If the war ends tomorrow, I do not see demand for millions of copies of discs on release day. Instead you'll see some of the population with HDTV's rush to jump on the bandwagon for Christmas, then steady progression as people retire their old SDTV's and DVD's with new HDM. At max, you will see year 1 DVD numbers for the total disc required, and that is being VERY generous.

If the proverbial flood gates open, I would suspect that the players units themselves will run out of stock long before the disc stock and yields are called into question. Not to mention that many companies WOULD see the ROI and fast track projects for BR replication, including those projects already in progress.

Lets also say in this same example that BRD does become scarce. Priorities for studios would shift from catalog titles to day and date releases without cost increases. You might see some movies sold out at most, and maybe some backlog. At first we'd get less catalog titles, but once more replication sites opened up and supply increases those would get released as well.

Quantity is only going to increase as time goes on, and it has. Release schedules have been pumped up way past 2006 levels, including multi disc sets for Christmas alone including 50+ more games coming out for the PS3 alone before Christmas. It really does not seem quantity is an issue at all, and instead the yield rate has become a bogeyman using scary words such as subsidies. If quantity is proportionate to the standalone adoption level, there is no problem.

[Icemage]

PS3 game titles are a neat ace in the hole for Blu-ray. They're a guaranteed volume seller for HDM that simply eclipse movies in volume, and they have huge profit margins in comparison.

I see a lot of hate thrown at gamers in general from the HT crowd, but it's going to be on the backs of gamers that the infrastructure for Blu-ray will be built and paid for.

P.S. I sincerely doubt yields and volume are a problem when there are many more millions of Blu-ray discs in circulation today than HD DVD due to the PS3 games.

[mel2]

I hope it's soon. they never did counter the paramount news. I see prison break is coming nov. 13. but that isn't enough. buena vista better have some announcements. if paramount can announce an october release this late, BDA should still be able to announce some october titles as well.

[mattym]

its 21.25 here in the uk, when are the conferences?

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by Icemage

P.S. I sincerely doubt yields and volume are a problem when there are many more millions of Blu-ray discs in circulation today than HD DVD due to the PS3 games.

"Ah but," the critics will say, "those games are all on BD-25s, not BD-50s whose yields are so very doubtful."

[TheLion]

Originally Posted by mattym

its 21.25 here in the uk, when are the conferences?

See my post above. Toshiba 23:00, Sony 24:00 your local time. At your service!

[monkyman]

Originally Posted by mel2

I hope it's soon. they never did counter the paramount news.

What could have countered that?

Well, FOX announcing their 30+ titles was a counter, and it was like gaining a studio, since they went AWOL in March.

[NutsAboutPS3]

Originally Posted by David Vaughn

Let's see, we have public statements from people saying:

"BD50's are science fiction" (Amir) and
"The format War will be over by the end of Q1 (from Fox)

Both were speaking on behalf of their format and companies, so are we to believe either of them? I think not.

I see those statements as a little different. Fox's statement would be interpreted by most people as nothing more than bullish bluster. Amir is sailing a bit close to the wind with what he says on AVS, IMO, and I doubt he would make the same statements in a formal Microsoft press release.

The statements of Mike Mitchell of Sony DADC, on the other hand, are not statements of opinion, they are statements about facts, and they pertain to facts that are fundamental to his business. If he were lying about those facts, it would be as serious, in terms of misleading stockholders, as if they were to falsify accounts. I see no way that he could reasonably expect to get away with lying when making such statements.

[mel2]

Fox was going to announce those anyway according to beatboy. We lost a big studio. what happened to the wal-mart deal?

[Petra]

So HD-DUDers big announcements are yesterday news. Like we didn't know about Shrek 3 or Transformers

You aint' gettin my money Paramount, you hear me?!?!? I'm boycotting your freaking movies!!!!

[Esox50]

Originally Posted by David Vaughn

Here is my reasoning. Lets say tomorrow Universal announces support for Blu-ray, Paramount says they made a mistake and are going to release on Blu-ray only, and Warner throws in the towel as well and all we have is Blu-ray with no competition. The flood gates open and mass adoption comes to fruition during Christmas 2007...

LOL. So in the most unrealisticly possible scenario, there MIGHT be a problem based on info from "inside sources" (data from which is disputed by people who would be in the know and who have a track record of being correct and straight shooters).

I think I'll "sleep well" knowing that there is a 99.9999999999999% chance that the studios have all the BD50's they need to continue to supply better quality product than HD DVD (for example, Transformers without lossless sound...among others).

Absolutely laughable...

[Icemage]

Originally Posted by Teazle

"Ah but," the critics will say, "those games are all on BD-25s, not BD-50s whose yields are so very doubtful."

Nonsense.

At $40-$60 per disc, games have profit margins that movie studios can only dream of.

Not all of that profit goes into infrastructure, naturally, but it's a much healthier cut than can be sliced out of HD DVD. Doesn't matter which sort of discs are pressed; the money will flow into the system and fund the production of more facilities.

That's why the PS3 games are so important. They're the monetary shot in the arm to push Blu-ray manufacturing on the media side, providing both good profitability and high volume demand.