The war has barely begun?

[Iron Man]

Many people here seem to be very enthusiastic about this whole format war, following Amazon sales ranks Nielsen/Videoscan numbers and so on. It is always more fun to follow something if you favour one “team” over the other and even more fun when you’re team is winning.

The software numbers favour Blu-ray in a 2:1 advantage over HD-DVD. Personally I do not think this matter too much, since amount of disks sold is still small.

So where does this put us? Well for the one part in this war it’s all barely begining.

HD-DVD:
Maybe more than half a year ago I made a thread on another forum about HD-DVD and what they should do to win this war. Among other things I suggested #1: Stop making stupid combo disks #2: Blu-ray has BD+ and Watermarking, HD-DVD has nothing, and they should start considering extra copy protection, FOX would have liked this #3: Region encoding, a studio like Disney would have liked this. #4: Get more studio support #5: Gain support from larger hardware manufactures.

Sadly for HD-DVD things has not changed a lot since, it is still only Toshiba. They have already reduced the price of there players. Actually they can not do much else then sit and hope for better times. I know Onkyo/Integra has announced HD-DVD players, but again these players are based on the XA2, hence Toshiba again. I know they got Paramount a few weeks ago but if you look at the big picture, one studio will not change anything and can only buy them a little more time. So pleace stop worrying


BLU-RAY:
For this side in the war things are a little different, the PS3 alone could have generated software sales to keep up with HD-DVD. Besides of the PS3 the Blu-ray camp has had stand alone players at twice the price of the HD-DVD’s, none of these are BD profile 1.1 and they still nearly sold as many as the competing format.

This years IFA has confirmed a lot of things. Many hardware manufactures are no longer just a name on a list of contributing members. They showed that they are getting ready to put Blu-ray players onto the market. The support is wide stretching all the way from SONY to Funai continuing to a small design orientated brand like Loewe. No matter what people think, this is a clear sign of who is winning. They do not support/choose Blu-ray for fun!!!

We have already seen what HD-DVD/Toshiba can do, Blu-ray could easily follow the sales of these players. But we are nowhere near seeing the full impact of the broad industry support there is for Blu-ray and the combined effect of the marketing campaigns from all these companies + lower priced players for that matter.

My guess is that over the next 8 month we will see the real begining of the format war!!





My reason for supporting Blu-ray is because I like movies and home theatre. I especially like movies in high definition. I am neither a HD-DVD hatter nor Blu-ray lover. Unfortunately from where I come from I can not rent Blu-ray or HD-DVD movies it is even hard to find a place to buy them. This will not change until a situation with more average adoption of the formats occurs and that will not happen before this stupid “war” is over. I support Blu-ray because everything is pointing at Blu-ray and as a bonus Blu-ray is also the superior format.

[Proteus]

A pretty good analysis there Iron man. I like the summary graphic at the end.

[scott87]

nice read mate some good points in there

[PaulGo]

I just think of this as "Star Wars" with the Emperor being played by Microsoft who is trying to lead the masses to the dark side.

In all seriousness you stated the facts very well. Thanks!!

[Blu-Runner]

Originally Posted by PaulGo

I just think of this as "Star Wars" with the Emperor being played by Microsoft who is trying to lead the masses to the dark side.

In all seriousness you stated the facts very well. Thanks!!

Yeah. And notice the colors of the cases? Red sabers versus blue sabers? Go Jedi!

[cajmoyper]

Originally Posted by Blu-Runner

Yeah. And notice the colors of the cases? Red sabers versus blue sabers? Go Jedi!

That is an ingenius observation, and i know how sarcastic that could sound but I don't mean it to be.

[pro-bassoonist]

The chart above should be stapled on every Blu-Ray piece of hardware/software sold. It speaks better than any add could.

In fact, I may just borrow it for DVDTALK where there is a lot of "excitement" amongst red supporters and "neutrals" over HDDVD's newly developed 51G disc.

Pro-B

[JAG1977]

Total sales don't matter, it's industry support and consumer confidence.

HD-DVD will be dead long before players and movies stop being produced.

It's only the US were there's a serious format war.

[Iron Man]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

In fact, I may just borrow it for DVDTALK where there is a lot of "excitement" amongst red supporters and "neutrals" over HDDVD's newly developed 51G disc.

I actually do not understand this excitement, since current players won't be able to read these 51G discs?? As far as I know!

[reiella]

Originally Posted by Iron Man

I actually do not understand this excitement, since current players won't be able to read these 51G discs?? As far as I know!

Well to be honest, we don't know if they can play them or not [after firmware update obviously].

The implication alot of folks have going forth is if the 1Gs can't play them, they aren't going to be adopted into the hdm standard. And well, my suggestion all around is not to make a mountain of a mole hill. It's buzz for now.

For the storage standpoint, it's a good call, as long the production costs for the drives is managable.

[stockstar1138]

very nice post, however i think you forgot to mention one thing: toshiba is bleeding money to stay in the game. they paid 150 million dollars for what? timed exclusives (18 months) on Shrek, Transformers, BoG, and Top Gun, they are lossing around 200 dollars per unit from what i understand, and with all that money invested they still have much lower software sales internationally. blu-ray players are sold at a profit (besides PS3) and discs sales outnumber hd dvd by over 2x, this means why both formats seems to be in a fierce war, blu-ray has a completely healthy business and hd dvd is sickly and dying, toshiba can only spend so much before realizing its just not worth it and MS will only waste so much money on hd dvd as investors are really presuring that department to quit losing so much money over at MS.

[reiella]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

very nice post, however i think you forgot to mention one thing: toshiba is bleeding money to stay in the game. they paid 150 million dollars for what? timed exclusives (18 months) on Shrek, Transformers, BoG, and Top Gun, they are lossing around 200 dollars per unit from what i understand, and with all that money invested they still have much lower software sales internationally. blu-ray players are sold at a profit (besides PS3) and discs sales outnumber hd dvd by over 2x, this means why both formats seems to be in a fierce war, blu-ray has a completely healthy business and hd dvd is sickly and dying, toshiba can only spend so much before realizing its just not worth it and MS will only waste so much money on hd dvd as investors are really presuring that department to quit losing so much money over at MS.

The PS3 I believe started to sell at a profit ~2Q2007. The big cost component of the PS3 went down alot when Sony solved their diode problem.

Toshiba, though, well, if neither format takes off, they continue to make their royalties back on DVD titles. The longer the way is between HD-DVD and Blu, the longer dvd can be milked pretty much unchallenged.

[peter99]

Can´t they just say "Blu-ray wins" because who is on the top? Who have the best picture? Who is the studios whit? BLU-RAY .

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by reiella

The PS3 I believe started to sell at a profit ~2Q2007. The big cost component of the PS3 went down alot when Sony solved their diode problem.

Toshiba, though, well, if neither format takes off, they continue to make their royalties back on DVD titles. The longer the way is between HD-DVD and Blu, the longer dvd can be milked pretty much unchallenged.

with the price drop its still slightly under from what ive heard. still they aren't losing near as much as toshiba and thats the point.

[tron3]

Very nice Iron Man. Only it turns out a few years ago, before either player was available, I posted here that better copy protection would get blu-ray support.

While I am not sure just how intensive blu-ray's copy protection has become, it had to be a concern of all the studios. Why do you think they hated VHS? It was EASY to copy a movie. I remember when having a dual VHS deck in one was a hot item. Copy vhs to vhs with no loss in quality. The movie studios HATED that thing. It may have been finally outlawed.

Then they came out with that VHS macro protection crap which caused a lot of legitiment movies to not display, even when no copying was taking place.

Face it, blu-ray has space to spare and that space is going to severely limit pirating by using copy protection encoding. HD-DVD just doesn't have the room to spare in many cases.

[Wiz13688]

Good read. Just want to add a few point:

HDTV penetration is still low in the U.S. most American household is still using SDTV

HD-DVD's hope of attracting mass consumer with a low cost player is not going to work when they don't have a HDTV to hook up to.

HDTV should be gaining momentum this X'mas with 42" price expected to drop to $700 but mass adoption will not happen until probably second half of 08 since SDTV OTA broadcast is due to end early 09.

Unfortunately, even after they get their HDTV. Those same mass consumer will still stay away from HD player (either format). Not when HD media (of either format) new releases are at $25 vs $15 or under for DVD when they are perfectly happy with it. They will not pick up a HD player of either type till HD media price drop below $20 for new releases.

The low attach rate for PS3 is also due partly to the lack of HDTV penetration as a lot of next gen console are still connected to SDTV. As more of the existing PS3 get connected to HDTV everyday. The attach rate will be going up quite a bit. With BD player about to reach/having reached sales parity with HD-DVD player and PS3 improving in sales. The BD:HD media sales ratio will only get wider.

BDA's priority for 08 should be aimed at reducing media cost (would be great if they can also lower player cost). If they can offer the consumer a price advantage over HD-DVD media. The Mass consumer will come since long term media cost will always far out weight any intitial hardware cost.

[gvortex7]

HDTV should be gaining momentum this X'mas with 42" price expected to drop to $700 but mass adoption will not happen until probably second half of 08 since SDTV OTA broadcast is due to end early 09.

That seems to be a common misconception. Standard definition broadcast is not going anywhere for a while. The only thing the February 2009 FCC mandate entails is the end of all analog terrestrial broadcast. From then on every OTA channel has to broadcast digitally. So this mandate will continue to allow cable and satellite providers to broadcast non-OTA channels in standard def.

[Lord_Stewie]

thanks for taking the time to write such a complex post. and might I add educative as well....

[jadedeath]

Originally Posted by Iron Man

My guess is that over the next 8 month we will see the real begining of the format war!!

I'm going to have to respectfully disagree here Iron Man.

The format war will be nearly over by early 2008 in my estimation.

If the PS3 keeps up to the 360 in sales domestically, this war could be over alot sooner than some folks think.

Let's say by the end of the year 3 million PS3's are sold in North America. If we use the 20% point that folks keep talking about then that makes 600,000 Blu-Ray players in North America.

On top of that, Blu-Ray players have started to outsell HD-DVD stand alones and with the 1-2-3 punch that Blu-Ray has coming out this holiday for releases, chances of it being 2-1 at the end of the holidays for software is getting more and more slim by the day we're probably going to be looking at at least 3-1 for the last 3 months this year.

Logan

[Lord_Stewie]

Originally Posted by jadedeath

I'm going to have to respectfully disagree here Iron Man.

The format war will be nearly over by early 2008 in my estimation.

If the PS3 keeps up to the 360 in sales domestically, this war could be over alot sooner than some folks think.

Let's say by the end of the year 3 million PS3's are sold in North America. If we use the 20% point that folks keep talking about then that makes 600,000 Blu-Ray players in North America.

On top of that, Blu-Ray players have started to outsell HD-DVD stand alones and with the 1-2-3 punch that Blu-Ray has coming out this holiday for releases, chances of it being 2-1 at the end of the holidays for software is getting more and more slim by the day we're probably going to be looking at at least 3-1 for the last 3 months this year.

Logan

its funny how you said if the PS3 keeps up with XBOMB 360.... and the ps3 doesn't even count as a standalone BD player, however the discs sales i am sure mostly is high because of the PS3. Skewed Marginal Effect. the PS3 affects the sales of BD discs, and it includes games and movies. and sales are already higher in favor of BD thanks to the PS3. basically, what i am saying the ps3 helped introduce BD technology to the public and the consumers are adapting to it accordingly. I honestly think the PS3 already pulled it off, damaging both the 360's reputation and capability. and sales will continue to improve for BD.