Warner: We're staying with Blu-ray & HD DVD

[WriteSimply]

I think Transformers will be in the top 3. However, I think those weekly, SI and YTD numbers will go blu significantly.

And then next week Transformer falters.


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Bought 2 more WB BD movies today (Blazing Saddles and Beerfest), which brings me up to 5 warner movies. Hopefully todays purchase will sawy them enough to go BD only.

[WickyWoo]

Transformers will almost certainly be #1 without a major blu title to combat it. Nothing else is going to come close to the 50-70K that thing is likely to move week 1.

We'll still win the overall week, just probably by a close to even margin

[martinp1]

warner needs 2 release batman begins on blu-ray asap. but im guessin this wont happen till near the release of batman dark knight in theaters.

[blublublu]

Originally Posted by dobyblue

I think Blu-ray will still outsell HD DVD on the week Transformers is released.

Sales of Surf's Up, Fantastic Four Silver Surfer and 28 Weeks Later will be selling well as they are big movies (especially the first two) and day and date releases - add in the other catalogue titles being released around that time like Troy, 28 Days Later, Dracula, The Day After Tomorrow, etc., and I think the ratio will still be handily in Blu-ray's favour on that day.

Transformers will probably sell in about the same range as "300" did on HD-DVD in the 1st week, somewhere between 75-100K. One of the most popular summer films, and I'm sure a certain amount of HD DVD fans will purchase just to support paramount.

Fantastic Four Silver Surfer will be out 2 weeks by the time Transformers hits, and Surf's Up and 28 Weeks Later 1 week.

It should be close, but I have to think Transformers will be enough to dominate and tip the scales that week.

[Paradiso]

First off just wanted to say 'hi'! I'm new to the forum and Blu...

I bought a PS3 a month ago and have been slowly buying up the BDs. Glad to see a mature and well-thought discussion going on.

In regards to the whole Paramount/Uni deal....yeah it sucks. Paramount kind of surprised me, however, not Uni. The quality of Uni's dvds over the past few years has (for me, anway) been more miss than hit. I have a few dvd players and make sure they stay healthy, but still run into issues from their discs. Freezing up, skips, etc etc. So, no, no surprise that Uni would take the money and run....

Anway, fingers crossed! I have high-hopes that BD will win the day!

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by blublublu

Transformers will probably sell in about the same range as "300" did on HD-DVD in the 1st week, somewhere between 75-100K. One of the most popular summer films, and I'm sure a certain amount of HD DVD fans will purchase just to support paramount.

Fantastic Four Silver Surfer will be out 2 weeks by the time Transformers hits, and Surf's Up and 28 Weeks Later 1 week.

It should be close, but I have to think Transformers will be enough to dominate and tip the scales that week.

Agree - HD-DVD will win the week in sales.

I, however, feel that Transformers may have a stronger showing than 100,000. I guess it really depends on how much promo the hi-def version gets from now until release. This is a hardware-selling title folks, whether anyone here wants to believe it or not. The numbers will be big on this title the first week. Will it have legs? Probably. Once Spidey 3 hits I think the focus will shift and T-Formers sales will slip noticeably but stay relatively strong (for an HD-DVD title) for the ENTIRE holiday season.

Once the big guns from the BDA camp hit (starting with Spidey, for me), I feel the numbers will shift to Blu-ray significantly and all these PS3 owners will give "mommy and daddy" their want lists and on those lists will be Blu-ray movies like Die Hard 4, POTC AWE, Spidey 3, Harry Potter, yada yada yada. I'll bet in November, we won't see less than a 75/25 sales ratio (Blu winning, of course). And, in December we may end the year with 80+% in Blu-rays favor.

There are only 3 films coming to HD-DVD that I feel will do big numbers for the format during the holidays: Bourne 3, Transformers, Shrek 3. You can't support an entire format with only three blockbuster releases.

[blu-rayfan101]

Cant see waner going hd DUD exclusive when they are releasing tones of blu movies but before they go exclusive to a format they should release all the titles we dont have on bu but are on hd dud cause then the sales would change. In are favour! And you could compare the sales between the movies on each format.

[lch]

nope, both hdm will dip significantly during transformer week.
even more transformer dvd will be sold that week compare to any hdm titles.

[WickyWoo]

Bourne 3 and Shrek 3 are not going to move nearly the Units

Bourne will do very well, but enough people hated Shrek 3 that it'll keep it down well

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

Bourne 3 and Shrek 3 are not going to move nearly the Units

Bourne will do very well, but enough people hated Shrek 3 that it'll keep it down well

Yes, but those are going to be the only "big-selling" titles for HD-DVD. They have nothing else in their line-up to come close to those "big 3" during the holiday rush.

Edit: I think Bourne 3 will break 60,000 by the end of the year. Shrek 3 maybe 40,000 by year's end. I don't see these blockbuster movies doing that well as far as "units sold" either. But, these three movies (which includes Transformers, which I'll call at 150k by year's end) are the only "legs" HD-DVD is standing on this year.

It's going to be HD-DVD on the New Year's Eve grill.

[The Guardian]

I think your numbers are a little low.... 300 sold 97k in its first week on HD DVD and there are more HD DVD players out there now...

[WickyWoo]

300 sold 97k in its first week on HD DVD and there are more HD DVD players out there now...

It sold 70K+, not 90.

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by The Guardian

I think your numbers are a little low.... 300 sold 97k in its first week on HD DVD and there are more HD DVD players out there now...

Yeah, since Transformers has 2 1/2 months till the end of the year they may reach 200-225K units. If they surpass 150,000 though, I will really be amazed. It really depends on how well they promote the hi-def release and if retail outlets really buy into the HD-DVD version heavily. 300 had a lot of promotions/advertising and the hi-def versions were ordered heavily by most retailers. Most retailers in my area have cut back on HD-DVD shelf space or increased Blu-ray space since the release of 300 on hi-def. This makes the legs of Transformers a little more wobbly as retailers have to divvy up shelf space for HD-DVD discs during the holidays.

[richteer]

Originally Posted by The Guardian

I think your numbers are a little low.... 300 sold 97k in its first week on HD DVD and there are more HD DVD players out there now...

Two things:

1. It sold ~70K on HD DVD in the first week; and

2. I don't think that many HD DVD players have sold since the release of 300...

[The Guardian]

It sold ~70K on HD DVD in the first week according to Nielson which doesn't include Wal Mart and any online retailers other than Amazon?

I am going to bed but if you guys want in the morning I'll look up where I saw that 97k number. It also said 190k for BD in the first week, FYI.

[blitz6speed]

Guys, Shrek 3 will not be a HUGE seller, like 300 was. 300 was the first big movie of the year for either formats, with mediocre titles being released till then, there was a LOT of pent up demand for something hot, new and 300 was it. You guys must also not remember how they printed way too many copies of Shrek 2 (due to its box office success) and the title didnt sell ANYWHERE near as well as part 1 on DVD (considering shrek 2 sucked compared to shrek 1, it is not hard to figure out why). Shrek 3 is the worst of all 3 in the series, so honestly, anyone holding out hope it will sell in the range of 300 is in for a really bad shock.

As funny as it sounds, i heard they dumped the excess Shrek 2 DVDs in the land fill next to E.T. for Atari 2600.

Bourne will do well, but will get lost in the mix by the time it comes out. Transformers is the ONLY hd dvd title this year that has a chance at beating 300's #s (and thats 300 on HD DVD #s, it wont get anywhere near close to the BD #s). So, really, the only threat to BD this holiday season is Transformers, and that will be gone from the mix as of Oct 30. It will not have the legs to compete with the onslaught of Blu-Ray exclusive blockbusters due out this year.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by The Guardian

I think your numbers are a little low.... 300 sold 97k in its first week on HD DVD and there are more HD DVD players out there now...

The Nielsens poll about 65% of retail, but they estimate the rest. The numbers are supposed to estimate the total sales, not just at the places they poll.



Are you sure you didn't hear the latest numbers for 300 from Warner are around 200K/100K when they were re-explaining their neutral stance?

Gary

[wwl36]

Damn! I hate Warner still no plan to release Matrix & Batman on BR.

[WickyWoo]

Yes the figures came from Warner, not Nielsen

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/...67&newsLang=en

Based on the breakdown from that week's numbers, it ended up being 70+K for HD 300

Damn! I hate Warner still no plan to release Matrix & Batman on BR.

No plans that they're willing to talk publically. I'm sure they know exactly when