81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Blu Titan]

yeahh but it'll make the week numbers drop for one week at least. If it goes down pritty bad that'll be a morale-killer. For me anyway. [/quote]

Wow you remind me of some of the Dolphin fans I know. Lets look at the exclusive releases next week:

HD DVD
Top Gun (Paramount)
Dreaming Nevada (The Picture)

[COLOR="Blue"]Blu-ray
October 02, 2007
Bram Stoker's Dracula (Sony)
Dawn of the Dead (1978) (Starz)
The Day After Tomorrow (Fox)
Day of the Dead (1985) (Starz)
Evil Dead 2: Dead by Dawn (Starz)
Fantastic Four: The Rise of the Silver Surfer (Fox)
Halloween (1978) (Starz)

HD DVD is going to get killed. However, the fanboys at AVS will find a way to spin it into a victory. We are really spoiled!

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by Lee Christie

Yeh but it'll make the week numbers drop for one week at least. If it goes down pritty bad that'll be a morale-killer. For me anyway.

Well how about instead of getting all sad you go out and buy 2 BR on October 16th. In fact, I do not wish to beat a dead horse here but...we ARE directly responsible for the well-being of our format. If there is one thing you could do, and I mean a move that could really help Blu-Ray, it is to support the format with a purchase or two on October 16th.

Even a single disc counts!

This is what we, I, you, could do. The rest (bribing, negotiations, etc) we have no control over.

So...support our format on October 16th.

Pro-B

[LeoneFan]

I'm sorry guys but I guess we have to start accepting the fact that nothing is ever going to become of Blu-ray. It's going to be a niche format just like SACD. The BDA since day one had no game plan, they walked into this format war like they just didn't give a crap. They had numerous chances to finish HDDVD off but they dropped the ball time and time again. Now, HDDVD is hanging in there and week after week they keep putting up stronger numbers. I don't believe there will be a clear winner but DVD isn't going anywhere. The BDA had their chance and they simply blew it, it's over. I haven't seen so many great companies come together just to piss away the future of a product so bad. It's a great shame.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

I'm sorry guys but I guess we have to start accepting the fact that nothing is ever going to become of Blu-ray. It's going to be a niche format just like SACD. The BDA since day one had no game plan, they walked into this format war like they just didn't give a crap. They had numerous chances to finish HDDVD off but they dropped the ball time and time again. Now, HDDVD is hanging in there and week after week they keep putting up stronger numbers. I don't believe there will be a clear winner but DVD isn't going anywhere. The BDA had their chance and they simply blew it, it's over. I haven't seen so many great companies come together just to piss away the future of a product so bad. It's a great shame.

I'm going to repeat this for the millionth time.

HD-DVD has had *ONE* good piece of news in the last six months. Where the hell do you people come from?

Comparing this to SACD is completely and utterly moronic. Blu-Ray has sold more in the first ten months than SACD sold in its first three years. Furthermore Audiophiles are a rare breed because most people simply can not hear the difference. There is nobody who can not see the difference in Blu-Ray vs. DVD.

The PS3 100% guarantees the Blu-Ray player will never ever go away. It simply can't.

I simply can not believe how whiny most Blu-Rayers seem to be. I'm reminded of the child desperate for affirmations. You can give them thousands of good comments, but give them ONE bad comment and it's the end of the world.

I'm so amused by the theory that Blu-Ray could have just snapped its fingers and won the war. You have zero clue as to what the BDA has attempted to do. If you are so wimpy to bail after less than a year, then you simply do not belong in a new product cycle. Period.

[LeoneFan]

I'm not bailing, I will support Blu-ray until the end but I have to come to a sad realization that it will be nothing more than a niche format without 100% studio support. I'm sorry but the Paramount news was much bigger than all the good Blu-ray news combined, that's a cold hard fact. The BDA is all talk and no action, while the competition goes out and buys out movie studios the BDA is thumping their chests and acting hard.

[PrinceLH]

The week that Transformers comes out, I will make sure to buy 3 new Blu Rays, just to counteract the Transformer release. If HD DVD loses that week, with less than 40% of the sales, then they're as good as dead. To read all of the AVS fanboys propaganda, this is the turning point for their format. They don't believe that they can lose. You can bet WB and Universal are watching this very closely. The defeat of HD DVD could become practical in quarter 1 of 2008! We all must do our part!!

[T-Wrecks]

Are you seriously not being sarcastic in that "Oh NOEZ!!!" post?

So long as Disney and Sony have a partnership...that "one" piece of news you herald as the death knell of the Blu-ray camp is just a speed bump.

People will buy Disney for Nostalgic reasons and they will spend money on their children when all else fails. Disney going HD-DVD exclusive would have warranted that response, but not this.

[phloyd]

Just look at the charts and the release lists.

Aside from Disney, Fox and Sony are all way more important that Unviersal and Paramount.

Seriously...

Did anyone else notice that BD has more exclusives than HD DVD even has releases?

Paramount has only 10 releases before the end of the year. They are pathetic, and always have been. They rarely show up in the top 10.

This week is another with nothing from Paramount and Universal in the top 10 HD discs. Par for the course.

The only exceptions will be Transformers and Shrek 3. They should make the top 10. But so will MANY of the BDs that are coming out this quarter...

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

I'm not bailing, I will support Blu-ray until the end but I have to come to a sad realization that it will be nothing more than a niche format without 100% studio support.

This is a faux statement to say the least. 100% studio support isn't needed to win the market. Unless your perception about viable studio support begins and ends with the majors.

I've worked in the distribution system and nothing hurts more than seeing unsubstantiated propaganda (yes, there is factual propaganda as well) erode confidence. I remember when MacroVision was first introduced on the Eastern European market and claims about VHS ability to support it hit the industry. It took us good eight months to counter what a single rumor did.

Back to the original topic: it is HDDVD propaganda to claim that sales numbers for BR are so low compared to SDVD that Hi-Def media is clearly failing. Newsflash: sales numbers aren't insignificant. They Just don't favor one of the formats!!

Pro-B

[LeoneFan]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

This is a faux statement to say the least. 100% studio support isn't needed to win the market. Unless your perception about viable studio support begins and ends with the majors.

My point is that as long as M$ and To$hiba are handing out paychecks this war will go on indefinitely and there will be no clear winner. So in the grand scheme of things a successful format will need 100% studio support which Blu-ray won't have.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

My point is that as long as M$ and To$hiba are handing out paychecks this war will go on indefinitely and there will be no clear winner. So in the grand scheme of things a successful format will need 100% studio support which Blu-ray won't have.

I don't think that there is a single company or business entity out there that could compete with Microsoft. If such exists I am clearly unaware of it.

This being said this is where America tends to be a great nation: the consumer still has a say so long as financial revenue is sizable enough to make a statement. So, I do understand your point and I realize that WB is going to be near impossible to turn Blu-exclusive...yet consider this:

Hi-Def media is the last revenue well deep enough for the majors to ignore a giant such as Microsoft. Beyond Hi-Def media is the unknown, with one of the two rivaling formats the future is less than intimidating (hence Mr. Iger's recent statement).

As to SDVD...it is a capped format. There is no room for further expansion.

Ciao,
Pro-B

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

My point is that as long as M$ and To$hiba are handing out paychecks this war will go on indefinitely and there will be no clear winner. So in the grand scheme of things a successful format will need 100% studio support which Blu-ray won't have.

This "point" really needs an argument.

It's easy to imagine plausible scenarios in which Blu-ray eventually wins without 100% studio support initially and with MS and Toshiba continuing as always to write cheques. I remember duking this one out with Chris Gerhard (now banned IIRC) a few weeks back. (Buried somewhere in the old threads.) In particular one has to consider the interest of the retailers, not just studios and hardware manufacturers.

About 100% studio support "in the grand scheme of things", that comes after the format war is over, not before, so that point isn't relevant.

About the advanced res. audio analogy ... Anyone remember hearing radio and seeing TV adverts for either of SACD or DVD-A? I didn't think so. Give the war some credit. If you don't like the VHS vs Beta analogy, it is at least coming to resemble Atari vs Intellivision.

[frank_t]

Originally Posted by Teazle

This "point" really needs an argument.

It's easy to imagine plausible scenarios in which Blu-ray eventually wins without 100% studio support initially and with MS and Toshiba continuing as always to write cheques. I remember duking this one out with Chris Gerhard (now banned IIRC) a few weeks back. (Buried somewhere in the old threads.) In particular one has to consider the interest of the retailers, not just studios and hardware manufacturers.

About 100% studio support "in the grand scheme of things", that comes after the format war is over, not before, so that point isn't relevant.

About the advanced res. audio analogy ... Anyone remember hearing radio and seeing TV adverts for either of SACD or DVD-A? I didn't think so. Give the war some credit. If you don't like the VHS vs Beta analogy, it is at least coming to resemble Atari vs Intellivision.

...and VHS (lesser tech) beat Beta.

...and Atari (lesser tech) beat Intellivision

...and Commodore 64 (lesser tech) beat Atari 800XL

SACD and DVD-A died because no one cared outside of us geeks. CD was deemed good enough; iTunes was deemed good enough. Afterall, how many of us need to sit in one place to listen to music.

BD and HD-DVD face the main same issue as SACD and DVD-A: no one cares.

Seriously - I've had people over to watch BDs on my PS3. Sure - they all agree it looks better. But they are not about to spend for a new player nor for the additional cost for the movies as they deem DVD to be good enough.

If there were only one format, then we'd have 2 years or so before the players became cheap enough for mainstream.

Instead we have competing formats causing confusion; one camp is willing to go the distance on price now to win later. The other are a bunch of tech-heads who think the masses will understand, let alone care, about storage space, bit rates, 1080i vs 1080 24/p. They don't. people are ignorant on these things.

My gut tells me that if Tosh and co. succeed in bringing a $199 player to market, we'll see a surge in HD-DVD. It'll possibly convince those dual-format studios to become exclusives and it'll drag the war on for another 12-18 months while BD slowly dies and the inevitable happens: sony, fox, and disney will no longer leave the money on the table. and guess what? they won't care! cause in the end, they still end up selling you movies.

i hope i'm wrong as i've invested in blu.

[Blu Titan]

Q4 is the factor that will decide the format war. The amount of dollars involved in in the billions. We have a super strong lineup of movies for Q4 (solified by the two New Line Cinema releases). It is going to be FUN and I am looking foward to it. I ordered Halloween, The Day After Tomorrow, and FF Rise of The Silver Surfer for 10/02. I am looking foward to watching all of those movies. If you were on the other side of the fence how would you feel missing out on all of the awesome Blu-ray releases? By the end of the year I expect the 2007 numbers to favor Blu-ray by a 70-30 margin.

[Sonny]

I sure LOVE that BLU 217 & couting I do my part & then some.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by frank_t

...and VHS (lesser tech) beat Beta.

...and Atari (lesser tech) beat Intellivision

...
...

SACD and DVD-A died because no one cared outside of us geeks. CD was deemed good enough; iTunes was deemed good enough. Afterall, how many of us need to sit in one place to listen to music.

BD and HD-DVD face the main same issue as SACD and DVD-A: no one cares.
...

Ok, but all I was trying to point out is that the SACD vs DVD-A war had minimal publicity as against the other examples. In the minds of those behind SACD and DVD-A, neither format was worth promoting extensively in mass media. In this respect HD-DVD vs BD is different. The publicity is set to increase (prepare for upcoming HD-DVD ads during Sunday night NFL games).

To those who think that this format war is like a reprise of that over high-res audio, rest assured that those paying for the advertising think differently. They fully expect one format to gain mass acceptance and are investing in ads accordingly.

[Anthony P]

This is the Neilsen thread cann we try and limit the discussion to that.

As for Niche or not, I think BD has a good chance of becoming the mainstream format. It is just way too early to call. I also think most people at this time just don't know what they are missing. Two of my sisters families got PS3 because after spending some time together they realized that BDs just look and sound much better. The first one got it on Fathers day because he was in town for the weekend and we saw 2-3 movies and played games. On Sunday me, my BIL and one of my nephews went out and they bought a PS3 and took 20 of my movies when they went back home (they are living in a different city). After spending a week at a cottage with my second sister and her family (and my PS3/movies and games) they fell in love with it. even though they have a Wii that they seldom use, on Friday my sister was at a store and decided to get a PS3, she called it an anniversary present (it is in a few weeks. My guess is that she had enough that every 2-3days her husband was here to either watch a movie or play a game. As people get to experience BD they will realize what thy are missing and will buy into it.

[WriteSimply]

Keep up the good work, Anthony!


fuad

[Sir Terrence]

Originally Posted by LeoneFan

My point is that as long as M$ and To$hiba are handing out paychecks this war will go on indefinitely and there will be no clear winner. So in the grand scheme of things a successful format will need 100% studio support which Blu-ray won't have.

This is where you are wrong. If the HD DVD PG has to keep paying big numbers to keep the format going, then someone at some given time is going to pull the plug on this. At some point the format is going to have to stand up on its own two feet just like bluray has up to this point. If it cannot, it becomes a cash black hole. One of these companies is going to get tired of bleeding $150 million every 18 months, and realize that enough is enough. The retailer have already started making their decision on what to carry.

I have two best buys in my area, and both of them have not order new HD DVD titles, but just restocked what they have had. Each time I go, I see new bluray titles(they're just too expensive though), and increasing space being devoted to those titles. There are two bluray displays versus one for HD DVD. One of my close friends is a manager at BB in emerville in the bay area. He tells me that HD DVD player sales have pretty much stagnated in his store, while Sony BPS300 is selling very briskly. I saw two people buy this player just yesterday while I was in the store talking to him.

What we do as supporters of our format highly depends on sales over the holiday. If we do impressively, Warner will pay attention and move accordingly. If we get defeatist as you are currently talking, then we lost this.

Keep in mind that HD DVD doesn't have full studio support either, but nobody in their camp sounds even close to be defeated. I wish more bluray supporter would get have the undying fervor that they have. We are becoming a bunch of big babies in this war.

[Sir Terrence]

Originally Posted by frank_t

...and VHS (lesser tech) beat Beta.

...and Atari (lesser tech) beat Intellivision

...and Commodore 64 (lesser tech) beat Atari 800XL

SACD and DVD-A died because no one cared outside of us geeks. CD was deemed good enough; iTunes was deemed good enough. Afterall, how many of us need to sit in one place to listen to music.

BD and HD-DVD face the main same issue as SACD and DVD-A: no one cares.

Seriously - I've had people over to watch BDs on my PS3. Sure - they all agree it looks better. But they are not about to spend for a new player nor for the additional cost for the movies as they deem DVD to be good enough.

If there were only one format, then we'd have 2 years or so before the players became cheap enough for mainstream.

Instead we have competing formats causing confusion; one camp is willing to go the distance on price now to win later. The other are a bunch of tech-heads who think the masses will understand, let alone care, about storage space, bit rates, 1080i vs 1080 24/p. They don't. people are ignorant on these things.

My gut tells me that if Tosh and co. succeed in bringing a $199 player to market, we'll see a surge in HD-DVD. It'll possibly convince those dual-format studios to become exclusives and it'll drag the war on for another 12-18 months while BD slowly dies and the inevitable happens: sony, fox, and disney will no longer leave the money on the table. and guess what? they won't care! cause in the end, they still end up selling you movies.

i hope i'm wrong as i've invested in blu.

I am very confident in the fomat I chose, what I am not confident in is the gestinal fortitude of some of my fellow supporters.

You guys are the most defeatist mofo I have every been around. Don't you know that Toshiba has always had the cheapest players, and we were still within 100,000 units of sales next to them with players more expensive????

A $199 player is only good when you have full studio support. Stop listening to Universal's talking points, and pay attention to what is happening in your own camp. Buy your favorite bluray movies, that goes alot farther than sitting up worrying about a cheap ass $199 HD DVD player.