Don't hear much from Rob Enderle anymore

[darinp2]

I believe that Rob Enderle took much of his basis for an article last year from an article by rdjam of avsforum fame. First there is the article from rdjam December 3rd, 2006 here:

http://www.hdnowonline.com/Comment_PS3_Launch.html

Three days later this article from Rob Enderle showed up:

http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback158.html

with references to rdjam's website. Looks like Rob Enderle even did one of the tricks (or mistakes) that are common from rdjam with:

All that being said, the killing blow may have been done by Microsoft who decided to bring to market a $200 HD DVD option for their Xbox 360 which has been in market a year longer than Sony and is projected to have a near 20x installed base advantage by year end (10M Xbox 360 to 600K PS3).

rdjam likes to use worldwide for one figure and US or NA for another without saying so to try to deceive people (or he isn't smart enough to know the difference). Here Rob Enderle used a figure for the XBOX360 that was a projection for shipped (not sold) worldwide and may have been using just US sold for the PS3.

Rob Enderle also said:

Add to this that the Xbox 360 HD DVD drive is for movies only, so each one counts for movie viewing while PS3s may not be used to watch movies and you have a situation where the active movie player advantage by year-end should be between 4x and 6x better for HD DVD over Blu-Ray.

and

Right now it appears impossible for Blu-Ray to gain a substantial lead on HD DVD, even after massive investment, they likely could only close the gap.

That was only 4 weeks from the start of 2007, where Blu-ray not only closed the gap, but has won every single week by Nielsen/Videoscan count this year. If the active movie player advantage was even in HD DVD's favor at the end of 2007 (let alone Rob Enderle's predicted 4x to 6x advantage) HD DVD would have probably been selling more software those weeks in the US, not less software every week. And I don't think the HD DVD camp can come up with even one place in the world where HD DVD software has outsold Blu-ray software so far this year.

I think Rob Enderle may have used a different article from rdjam as part of his basis for another article not too long ago. Those who have followed rdjam's posts probably understand why relying on him for your info is probably going to lead you to incorrect conclusions.

So, one question is whether Rob Enderle is ignorant enough to continue relying on rdjam even after how wrong it has led him in the past, or maybe Rob Enderle doesn't mind looking like a fool when people read his old predictions. I guess time and Rob Enderle's actions will tell.

A person considering themselves a top consultant and/or analyst relying on rdjam for information and direction would be funny, if it wasn't so sad.

--Darin