WTH is going on with this format war - can someone please advise - Blu-ray Forum

ShawnB · 11-01-2007, 05:56 PM

Gentlemen,
I recently made a post asking for some advice about investing in Blu-ray, and despite several people advising against it, I made a $7500 investment at $45 and the stock just closed near $50. A representative at Schwab was insisting that this was a great tech stock for Q4, and I did in fact do pretty good so far, but today he is telling me to get rid of it immediately because of what he calls now is a not so bright Q4. I know I didnt take the advice in this forum before, but can someone please provide a factual summary of wth is going on with the hd war. I'm sorry for my indifference to HD in general (i see this is a pretty passionate site), but as a Sony investor now, I would greatly appreciate any factual and not too tech heavy summary of what can be expected at the end of this quarter. I really don't want to be unloading a great stock, nor do i want to be sitting on a bad stock. Thank you in advance.

mykevermin · 11-01-2007, 06:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShawnB

Gentlemen,
I recently made a post asking for some advice about investing in Blu-ray, and despite several people advising against it, I made a $7500 investment at $45 and the stock just closed near $50. A representative at Schwab was insisting that this was a great tech stock for Q4, and I did in fact do pretty good so far, but today he is telling me to get rid of it immediately because of what he calls now is a not so bright Q4. I know I didnt take the advice in this forum before, but can someone please provide a factual summary of wth is going on with the hd war. I'm sorry for my indifference to HD in general (i see this is a pretty passionate site), but as a Sony investor now, I would greatly appreciate any factual and not too tech heavy summary of what can be expected at the end of this quarter. I really don't want to be unloading a great stock, nor do i want to be sitting on a bad stock. Thank you in advance.

Long story short, Toshiba has an "entry-level" priced HD DVD player ($200, $99 in some stores this week). To assume that this will stifle or harm Blu-Ray sales is silly - but what could happen is that Sony, in reaction to this pricing announcement, will reduce the price of their own players in order to compete more effectively.

So, either
1) BR standalone prices drop, which don't bode well for the short-term future of the stock, or
2) BR standalone sales stagnate, which doesn't bode well for the short-term future of the stock.

Video sales will do just fine or increase, with damn near a dozen 'blockbuster' releases coming this christmas season (for what that's worth).

I'm not your advisor, so I'm not ready to say "hang on tight, pal! They have no idea what they're talking about!" But I can offer this at the very least.

EDIT: You're probably fine in the long haul for this investment, as HD DVD has bottomed out such that they can't really go back to a higher pricepoint without shooting themselves in the foot. In the short-term, it's going to be a bit bumpier than expected. Depends on how long you planned on hanging onto this stock, I'd say.

Paladin · 11-01-2007, 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShawnB

but as a Sony investor now, I would greatly appreciate any factual and not too tech heavy summary of what can be expected at the end of this quarter.

You need to look at all of Sonys operations and not just one of them. Do you think that Sony has what it takes to be a good long term investment? Then stick with the company.

If anything, I'd short Toshiba as this will effect their bottom line.

Paladin

ShawnB · 11-01-2007, 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Paladin

You need to look at all of Sonys operations and not just one of them. Do you think that Sony has what it takes to be a good long term investment? Then stick with the company.

If anything, I'd short Toshiba as this will effect their bottom line.

Paladin

Fair enough, but I also do know that the DVD over the past 10 years has been a 30 billion dollar industry, with no signs of being taken over anytime soon. That being said, a decisive win right now is as good as a treasury bond for that same (if not greater), 30 billion over the next 10 years. From where I stand, that is the kind of money no company's stock wouldn't be impacted by. I believe a win could seriously propel Sony's stock into a 50% increase in just a matter of a few months...while a decisive loss could send it through the floor. Just IMHO.

WarCraft · 11-01-2007, 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShawnB

Gentlemen,
I recently made a post asking for some advice about investing in Blu-ray, and despite several people advising against it, I made a $7500 investment at $45 and the stock just closed near $50. A representative at Schwab was insisting that this was a great tech stock for Q4, and I did in fact do pretty good so far, but today he is telling me to get rid of it immediately because of what he calls now is a not so bright Q4. I know I didnt take the advice in this forum before, but can someone please provide a factual summary of wth is going on with the hd war. I'm sorry for my indifference to HD in general (i see this is a pretty passionate site), but as a Sony investor now, I would greatly appreciate any factual and not too tech heavy summary of what can be expected at the end of this quarter. I really don't want to be unloading a great stock, nor do i want to be sitting on a bad stock. Thank you in advance.

You are gonna decide your investment based on a forum? Wow -- just wow!
Assumptions, lies and FUD are abound here you know. Not to mention you cant just trust anybody.

Oh well, what do I know. Its your investment

ShawnB · 11-01-2007, 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WarCraft

You are gonna decide your investment based on a forum? Wow -- just wow!
Assumptions, lies and FUD are abound here you know. Not to mention you cant just trust anybody.

Oh well, what do I know. Its your investment

Of course i'm not going to. I even stated from the beginning, "despite not taking the advice in this forum i purchased anyway". I always look for all the information available and I just assumed this was as good a place as any. If the information here is not good, I would expect to be able to pick up on it. Just looking for factual information, that's all.

ShawnB · 11-01-2007, 06:42 PM

Your post just struck the 2nd time I read it...lies abound here. What are you talking about? I should expect to be told lies? And what do you mean FUD?

jtconnolly · 11-01-2007, 07:04 PM

have you seen the nielson numbers and the lineups of movies that the BDA has coming? Also Sony is a huge company and has more to offer than Blu-ray, so I would say sit tight! FUD is another name for lies and fabrications.

Whytewash · 11-01-2007, 07:06 PM

ShawnB:

Are you investing in BD or Sony or some other company? What is the stock code? (ie Google "goog")

Goodguy818 · 11-01-2007, 07:06 PM

Dont forget teh $400 PS3 oficially comes out tomorow. Ill definately be picking up one as a blu player.

BluOgre · 11-01-2007, 07:07 PM

Ignore everything you hear about firesale prices on hardware and keep your eyes glued on the software sales. That is the key, not some poor mans highdef player being sold at Wal-Mart.

There is a reason why Wal-Mart lags behind most retailers selling highdef software.....their clients think it's too expensive to buy. That WON'T change more than likely however just watch the sales numbers for the next month. If you see a swing towards HD (I'm not saying they win the week in sales but they continue to make up ground) I would be a little concerned the war is likely not going to end.

Warner is the single most important chess piece to this war ending atm. If they go Bluray, war is over no matter if they give hardware away for free. If they stay neutral or go HD exclusive....the format war is alive an well at least another year and possibly a dead format. HD has no chance to win but they can make it so confusing to customers that BR doesn't either.

Paladin · 11-01-2007, 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShawnB

I believe a win could seriously propel Sony's stock into a 50% increase in just a matter of a few months...while a decisive loss could send it through the floor. Just IMHO.

Well, Sony pictures, Fox and Disney will never release a HD DVD, look at what position those studios are in the market, their growth and you'll see that HD DVD doesn't stand a chance.

Paladin

DJeffries · 11-01-2007, 07:33 PM

I take it you invested in Sony. If that's the case there is a lot more to Sony than Blu-ray and very much more to Blu-ray than Sony. Blu-ray is only one piece ot the pie as far as that goes.

It is not possible to buy Blu-ray or BDA stock, there is no such company.

theknub · 11-01-2007, 07:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DJeffries

I take it you invested in Sony. If that's the case there is a lot more to Sony than Blu-ray and very much more to Blu-ray than Sony. Blu-ray is only one piece ot the pie as far as that goes.

It is not possible to buy Blu-ray or BDA stock, there is no such company.

qft, there is no such things as stock in blu-ray

krispydude · 11-01-2007, 07:53 PM

i think you should just stick to mutual funds. let other people do the work for you if you honestly believe sonys stock will jump 50% because blu-ray is the winner of the HD "war".

Z-Corp · 11-01-2007, 07:54 PM

May I ask what the reasoning of the investment is? Looking at your last comment you would like to be on the ground floor of a revolutionary format adoption to tap into a 30 billion dollar industry. I know that Sony is a key player in the overall Blu-ray product but they are not the player. If I were to invest in the Blu-ray format from an investor standpoint I would consider diversifying my holdings between the major Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) board members…see link.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray_Disc_Association

But even this doesn’t make much sense because winning the format war is only a fraction of the total business base for any of these BDA members. Point being, these folks have been in a DVD support business for years, regardless of the future they will continue to produce a product.

It may be advantages to invest in a BD reproduction company that established a Greenfield investment that replicates Blu-ray….
https://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=389

Also, look into what makes the disc, GE plastics, and the chemical hard coating manufacturer? The manufacture of the hard coating chemical for these discs is something I may research personally.

The good thing about Sony regarding your investment is that they have brand name recognition in regards to Blu-ray in comparison to the other founding companies of the BDA. When Blu-ray wins the format war I believe Sony will have the greatest rate of return on the Blu investment. I hope this provides some creative diversification ideas for your investment.

11-01-2007, 05:56 PM	#1
ShawnB Junior Member Member since:Oct 2007	WTH is going on with this format war - can someone please advise Gentlemen, I recently made a post asking for some advice about investing in Blu-ray, and despite several people advising against it, I made a $7500 investment at $45 and the stock just closed near $50. A representative at Schwab was insisting that this was a great tech stock for Q4, and I did in fact do pretty good so far, but today he is telling me to get rid of it immediately because of what he calls now is a not so bright Q4. I know I didnt take the advice in this forum before, but can someone please provide a factual summary of wth is going on with the hd war. I'm sorry for my indifference to HD in general (i see this is a pretty passionate site), but as a Sony investor now, I would greatly appreciate any factual and not too tech heavy summary of what can be expected at the end of this quarter. I really don't want to be unloading a great stock, nor do i want to be sitting on a bad stock. Thank you in advance.

Similar Threads
thread	Forum	Thread Starter	Replies	Last Post
Is Toshiba fighting a personal war, and not a format war?	General Chat	tron3	25	02-06-2008 01:05 PM
If the Format War was over...?	Blu-ray Technology and Future Technology	Rumar 4U	4	08-26-2007 01:52 AM
Is the format war over?	Blu-ray Technology and Future Technology	gandalf	4	11-17-2005 12:58 AM

11-01-2007, 06:42 PM	#7
ShawnB Junior Member Member since:Oct 2007	Your post just struck the 2nd time I read it...lies abound here. What are you talking about? I should expect to be told lies? And what do you mean FUD?

11-01-2007, 07:04 PM	#8
jtconnolly Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Jul 2007 Blu-ray collection:102 Blu-ray reviews:1	have you seen the nielson numbers and the lineups of movies that the BDA has coming? Also Sony is a huge company and has more to offer than Blu-ray, so I would say sit tight! FUD is another name for lies and fabrications.

11-01-2007, 07:06 PM	#9
Whytewash Special Member Member since:Mar 2007 Location:'Couve, WA Blu-ray collection:60 Blu-ray reviews:1	ShawnB: Are you investing in BD or Sony or some other company? What is the stock code? (ie Google "goog")

11-01-2007, 07:06 PM	#10
Goodguy818 Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Jun 2007 Location:Burbank, CA Home Theater Gallery:5 Blu-ray collection:536 Blu-ray reviews: 1 Trading Score:59	Dont forget teh $400 PS3 oficially comes out tomorow. Ill definately be picking up one as a blu player.

11-01-2007, 07:07 PM	#11
BluOgre Senior Member Member since:Aug 2007	Ignore everything you hear about firesale prices on hardware and keep your eyes glued on the software sales. That is the key, not some poor mans highdef player being sold at Wal-Mart. There is a reason why Wal-Mart lags behind most retailers selling highdef software.....their clients think it's too expensive to buy. That WON'T change more than likely however just watch the sales numbers for the next month. If you see a swing towards HD (I'm not saying they win the week in sales but they continue to make up ground) I would be a little concerned the war is likely not going to end. Warner is the single most important chess piece to this war ending atm. If they go Bluray, war is over no matter if they give hardware away for free. If they stay neutral or go HD exclusive....the format war is alive an well at least another year and possibly a dead format. HD has no chance to win but they can make it so confusing to customers that BR doesn't either.

11-01-2007, 07:33 PM	#13
DJeffries Active Member Member since:Mar 2007 Location:The middle of nowhereland Blu-ray collection:673	I take it you invested in Sony. If that's the case there is a lot more to Sony than Blu-ray and very much more to Blu-ray than Sony. Blu-ray is only one piece ot the pie as far as that goes. It is not possible to buy Blu-ray or BDA stock, there is no such company.

11-01-2007, 07:53 PM	#15
krispydude Member Member since:Aug 2007 Location:Phoenix, AZ	i think you should just stick to mutual funds. let other people do the work for you if you honestly believe sonys stock will jump 50% because blu-ray is the winner of the HD "war".

11-01-2007, 07:54 PM	#16
Z-Corp Member Member since:Sep 2007 Location:Central Texas	May I ask what the reasoning of the investment is? Looking at your last comment you would like to be on the ground floor of a revolutionary format adoption to tap into a 30 billion dollar industry. I know that Sony is a key player in the overall Blu-ray product but they are not the player. If I were to invest in the Blu-ray format from an investor standpoint I would consider diversifying my holdings between the major Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) board members…see link. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blu-ray_Disc_Association But even this doesn’t make much sense because winning the format war is only a fraction of the total business base for any of these BDA members. Point being, these folks have been in a DVD support business for years, regardless of the future they will continue to produce a product. It may be advantages to invest in a BD reproduction company that established a Greenfield investment that replicates Blu-ray…. https://www.blu-ray.com/news/?id=389 Also, look into what makes the disc, GE plastics, and the chemical hard coating manufacturer? The manufacture of the hard coating chemical for these discs is something I may research personally. The good thing about Sony regarding your investment is that they have brand name recognition in regards to Blu-ray in comparison to the other founding companies of the BDA. When Blu-ray wins the format war I believe Sony will have the greatest rate of return on the Blu investment. I hope this provides some creative diversification ideas for your investment.

Best Blu-ray Movie Deals