So how long until Blu-ray completely phases out DVDs?

[JLant19]

I think its a easy 10 years if not more.

[FlipperWasIrish]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

so show me the data, DVD has already had a quick demise. When D&D titles hit 50% then for those titles DVD is not king anymore. Once that is happening there is no way back, like a stone falling gravity makes the velocity faster and faster until it hits rock bottom. Just because you don't understand the simple math does not make it untrue.

You do the work and get your own data, not that it would matter as you are so off-base in regards to the OP's question (surprise, surprise...lol).

You can keep your simple math that is what you understand, things like profit & Loss, Capitalization, ROI may be beyond your abilities.

The question was this;

Originally Posted by LethalStriker

So how long until Blu Ray completely phases out DVDs?

Within 2-3 years Total Blu-rays sales will not even come close to outselling Total DVD's with exceptions made possibly for a small percentage of entertainment films.

Part of this is that a great many popular film DVDs will never be produced on Blu-ray.

Why, for a number reasons, but I'll stick with financial ones for this post. There are huge amounts of DVD producing capacity filling a need of the market. Yet, you say within 2-3 years all these companies will junk the equipment and purchase new Blu-ray technology to replace it.
Where are the funds coming from to follow this course of action? One, which will result in the loss of the valuable DVD revenue stream (Good luck getting any CFO to sign off on this). And this is just for entertainment.

What about the enormous volume of Government & Corporate DVDs that are made each year (training fillms, Power Point presentaions etc...). Ones that would not benefit from the increased cost of Blu-ray (either in equipment or the discs themselves). Given the global economic situation this alone will keep DVD technology around for 10+ years just for them.

Point: If you think all US companies and governments are just going destroy valauble on-the-book assets and invest in new technology without a clear benefit to the public, then yes, you must be living in an alternate universe.

In closing: I have just dealt with the United States, there is the rest of the world to account for also. If you care about the OPs question?

[STARSCREAM]

Probably 5-10 years.

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by FlipperWasIrish

You do the work and get your own data, not that it would matter as you are so off-base in regards to the OP's question (surprise, surprise...lol).

You can keep your simple math that is what you understand, things like profit & Loss, Capitalization, ROI may be beyond your abilities.

The question was this;

You mean profit, as in what the studios have been losing YOY since about 2006? Would that be the loss you are talking about? And ROI, seems Blu-ray is much better option there too.

Within 2-3 years Total Blu-rays sales will not even come close to outselling Total DVD's with exceptions made possibly for a small percentage of entertainment films.

Maybe, if you count exercise, porn, backyard wrestling, Girls Gone Wild or fetish videos.

Part of this is that a great many popular film DVDs will never be produced on Blu-ray.

Like? Ichi the Killer is out, so is City of the Living Dead, and Dr. Strangelove, and Machine Gun McCain, and, and, and...

Quite frankly, that sad argument is getting old. If anything can be said, it is that just about any film is likely to come out on Blu-ray. Just like DVD.

Why, for a number reasons, but I'll stick with financial ones for this post. There are huge amounts of DVD producing capacity filling a need of the market. Yet, you say within 2-3 years all these companies will junk the equipment and purchase new Blu-ray technology to replace it.

Ever hear of VHS? That happened seemingly overnight.

Where are the funds coming from to follow this course of action? One, which will result in the loss of the valuable DVD revenue stream (Good luck getting any CFO to sign off on this). And this is just for entertainment.

The same place the funds came from to switch to DVD, it's called investment. You know, like what is happening with home 3D right now? As far as the DVD revenue stream, it's valuable now, but in three years? Five?

What about the enormous volume of Government & Corporate DVDs that are made each year (training fillms, Power Point presentaions etc...). Ones that would not benefit from the increased cost of Blu-ray (either in equipment or the discs themselves). Given the global economic situation this alone will keep DVD technology around for 10+ years just for them.

If you call corporate videos keeping DVD viable, I call my Grandma recording Golden Girls and The Price Is Right keeping VHS viable.

Point: If you think all US companies and governments are just going destroy valauble on-the-book assets and invest in new technology without a clear benefit to the public, then yes, you must be living in an alternate universe.

Point: These profit driven corporations could give a damn about benefit to the public, they care about profit for their shareholders. And the day that profit from Blu-ray surpasses profit from DVD(Avatar, Life?), DVD's days are numbered.

In closing: I have just dealt with the United States, there is the rest of the world to account for also. If you care about the OPs question?

DVD will be around for a good many years, just like VHS hung around... on deathwatch. Just because they are producing DVD's, does not mean that it is a viable format. Just that they are wringing every last drop of profit out of it.


Government & Corporate DVDs...

[jpthomas27]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

so show me the data, DVD has already had a quick demise. When D&D titles hit 50% then for those titles DVD is not king anymore. Once that is happening there is no way back, like a stone falling gravity makes the velocity faster and faster until it hits rock bottom. Just because you don't understand the simple math does not make it untrue.

As much as I understand your intent with this analogy, your comparison is flawed. A rock does not continue to gain speed as it falls until it hits the bottom. Every object has a "terminal velocity", a point at which it no longer gains speed as it falls. It's different for every object and with out gettign into the phyhsics of it all, it depends on the weight and mass of the object. A feather is a very exagerated example of Terminal velocity. Drop one from a cliff or a sky scraper, what happens? It drops very slowely and never gains speed, it reaches it's terminal velocity very quickly because of it's weight and mass.

And to try and stay on subject here, I think abou 10 years is the best estimate. A couple factors I think that come into play here...
1) When DVD came on scene you could see a quality difference without buyinga new TV. For Blu ray to be effective the industry is asking people to not simply buy a new player and a new media, but they also need to buy a new TV in many cases to get the benefit. This will slow the adoption of blu-ray fora large part of the poplulation.
2) When DVD came on scene the home viewing movie industry basically stayed exactly the same, simply changing media type. In other words, people still went to Blockbuster, rented thier movie, watched it in the living room and had to return it the next day. Now not only has the rental industry changed dramatically but people don't simply reant a movie and watch it in the living room. Now many people are just as happy watching it on thier computer with is not HD, so they don't care. Many people use DVDs in thier car, which is not HD, so they don't care. Many people stream or download movies, so they don't care abotu Blu-ray either.

My point is that there are large parts of the population that simply don't care about Blu-ray becuause it is beyond thier needs for enjoying a movie, and for these reasons it will take longer for Blu-ray to kill DVD than it did for DVD to kill VHS.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by mjbethancourt

... from your tone, I get the idea that you think blu-ray adoption and survival of DVD are mutually incompatible. I think you are very wrong about that.

no, BD adoption has happened, if DVD survives or not it is irrelevent, so if you think I see the demise of DVD because I want BD then no that is not the reason. But history shows that it is very rare exceptions when there is noit a demise and that only happens when the new the old has something to offer that cannot be offered by the new. For example 78 records got replaced by 33's but tapes coexisted with 33's, why? because tapes where convenient (used with a car, walknman...) and recordable, while 33's had better audio and did not deteriorate as fast. then when CDs came out that where recordable and convenient and had good audio the other two dissapeared. Same with video, you had VHS, and then LD, LD was niche but it was around for obver 20 years, VHS where cheap and simple, LDs where expensive but much higher quality. The issue is that DVD does not have any advantages over BD so naturaly it will eventualy fade away as more and more people naturaly go to BD (like I said in my reply, why would anyone buying a disk player buy a DVD player when a BD player is almost the same cost?

No, my argument is valid if they continue to make DVDs, period. People will still buy them, because they will still want titles that are not and may never be on blu-ray, and they will still buy them as long as they are cheaper. Grandfathering a DVD collection over to a new player will play a major factor in the survival of DVD...

not realy. But let's make a simple example. Avatar sold just as many BDs as DVDs. Now if there was no BD, how many DVDs would it have sold, probably 2x as many (can't imagine anyone bought the BD and the DVD and I also can't imagine that anyone said "I won't get the DVD because they also released it on BD") but what if an equivalent movie comes out next year, obviously the number of BD owners would have grown so BD sales would be up and DVD sales lower and so the % would be in BDs favour. Eventualy it just becomes not worth it, the DVD sales will be too low and the BD sales too big. Let me go an other way, I posted this link http://www.amazon.com/Bambi-VHS-Walt.../dp/B000BAVLYS a few posts earlier to show that VHS continued until 2006, do you see how it says "in stock", we are 2010 now, why is it in stock, because in 2005-2006 even the last few VHS only owners moved to owning DVD as well and so they did not run out and buy the VHS but bought the DVD. That is why amazon has had it "in stock" for the last 4 years. The stock is not decreasing. You are stuck in the past eventualy stores and studios will slow down DVD reproduction/selling/renting because it won't be cost effective. As to your cheaper comment, that also plays a role. Lety me ask you this, something costs 1M$ and you divide it by 1M sales, how much does it cost per sale? 1$, now if it is 100k sales how much does it cost? 10$. BD is at the 50% mark for some titles, at this point that means that the fixed costs are equaly divided, but since DVD will continue to drop (o we agree on that) the cost (to the studio) of DVDs will rise. The same for the replication as the replicator moves more production facility to BD.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by FlipperWasIrish

You do the work and get your own data, not that it would matter as you are so off-base in regards to the OP's question (surprise, surprise...lol).

funny how when someone does not have a leg to stand on they always revert to "get your own data"

You can keep your simple math that is what you understand, things like profit & Loss, Capitalization, ROI may be beyond your abilities.

not at all I taught those concepts and many more advanced ones in University.

Within 2-3 years Total Blu-rays sales will not even come close to outselling Total DVD's with exceptions made possibly for a small percentage of entertainment films.

BD sales are close to DVD sales. Only new releases (be they catalogue or D&D) count because new releases are what are being sold (now). Do you think Disney is releasing or should be releasing VHS tapes of their mnovies because AMazon still has stock of Bambi II? Amazon paid for those many years ago and they still have them on their site because it does not cost them much.

If you take completely phases out as " they have been wiped off of the face of the earth and there is no traces that they ever existed" then I would have to agree with the people saying never since even 20 years from now someone (me, if I am still alive) could have some in a box some wher. But if you take it to mean " when will studios stop releasing on DVD and many places will only have BDs for sale/rent" then 2-3 years is my guess and it is extremely realistic. And if you bothered to read the actual question from the OP you would see that he said " So what is your guess in a year or two, 5 years or 10 years before it takes over the industry? " so it was #2 and not #1 that he was asking.

Part of this is that a great many popular film DVDs will never be produced on Blu-ray.

And they will never be reproduced on DVD. So it is 0-0 just like movies that where not reproduced on DVD did not help VHS last longer.

Why, for a number reasons, but I'll stick with financial ones for this post. There are huge amounts of DVD producing capacity filling a need of the market. Yet, you say within 2-3 years all these companies will junk the equipment and purchase new Blu-ray technology to replace it.
Where are the funds coming from to follow this course of action? One, which will result in the loss of the valuable DVD revenue stream (Good luck getting any CFO to sign off on this). And this is just for entertainment.

any inteligent replicator would not have bought any new DVD equipment past 2004 (which was when DVD sales started to drop) any mildly inteligent replicator would not have added DVD lines past 2006 since several years of declining replication as well as two new format(HD DVD and BD) make it a dumb move to invest in DVD. Anyone that is not a complete moron would not invest in DVD past 2008 when BD won the war and HD-DVD went bye bye because he would realize that DVD was being replaced by BD. So any DVD lines would be old especialy in a few years. Also, let's face it, if DVD does survive or not, it is imaterial replicators will need to add more BD lines since BD demand is growing (doubeling every year)

What about the enormous volume of Government & Corporate DVDs that are made each year (training fillms, Power Point presentaions etc...). Ones that would not benefit from the increased cost of Blu-ray (either in equipment or the discs themselves). Given the global economic situation this alone will keep DVD technology around for 10+ years just for them.

not the OPs question, it was on the movie industry. On the other hand, if it is corporate and internal stuff that no one ebvver watches, then keeping them as data files on a server makes much more sense.

In closing: I have just dealt with the United States, there is the rest of the world to account for also. If you care about the OPs question?

I do, that is why I I dealt with what he asked (specifiacaly talking about the movie industry) and not some asinine "make up my own" question.

[FlipperWasIrish]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

funny how when someone does not have a leg to stand on they always revert to "get your own data".

One zing for me, one zing for you.

Originally Posted by Anthony P

BD sales are close to DVD sales. Only new releases (be they catalogue or D&D) count because new releases are what are being sold (now). Do you think Disney is releasing or should be releasing VHS tapes of their mnovies because AMazon still has stock of Bambi II? Amazon paid for those many years ago and they still have them on their site because it does not cost them much.

The number of movies and TV shows that are still being produced only on DVD is a big revenue stream. It should not be discounted.

Originally Posted by Anthony P

If you take completely phases out as " they have been wiped off of the face of the earth and there is no traces that they ever existed" then I would have to agree with the people saying never since even 20 years from now someone (me, if I am still alive) could have some in a box some wher. But if you take it to mean " when will studios stop releasing on DVD and many places will only have BDs for sale/rent" then 2-3 years is my guess and it is extremely realistic. And if you bothered to read the actual question from the OP you would see that he said " So what is your guess in a year or two, 5 years or 10 years before it takes over the industry? " so it was #2 and not #1 that he was asking.

We will have to agree to disagree here as we have different views on the economics of the studios. While I agree, at some point studios will stop releasing DVDs. At the earliest I don't see this happening at a major studio for 7-10 years. So in 3 years (you) or 10 years (me) we will know if we are both wrong or one of us is correct in predicting the future.

Originally Posted by Anthony P

And they will never be reproduced on DVD. So it is 0-0 just like movies that where not reproduced on DVD did not help VHS last longer.

any inteligent replicator would not have bought any new DVD equipment past 2004 (which was when DVD sales started to drop) any mildly inteligent replicator would not have added DVD lines past 2006 since several years of declining replication as well as two new format(HD DVD and BD) make it a dumb move to invest in DVD. Anyone that is not a complete moron would not invest in DVD past 2008 when BD won the war and HD-DVD went bye bye because he would realize that DVD was being replaced by BD. So any DVD lines would be old especialy in a few years. Also, let's face it, if DVD does survive or not, it is imaterial replicators will need to add more BD lines since BD demand is growing (doubeling every year) .

We don't disagree that Blu-ray will continue to grow, so I am not going to comment on your impressions of the people who run the production side of the industry.

When 2014 comes and 5 of the top 10 films of the year are only produced on Blu-ray I will conceed that you were correct in your assumptions. Will you do the same?

Originally Posted by Anthony P

not the OPs question, it was on the movie industry. On the other hand, if it is corporate and internal stuff that no one ebvver watches, then keeping them as data files on a server makes much more sense.

Of course the content is on servers, but millions of DVDs are used to view this content. And no, I am not going to argue that this is the ideal way to do things, it just is what is being done at present.

Originally Posted by Anthony P

I do, that is why I I dealt with what he asked (specifiacaly talking about the movie industry) and not some asinine "make up my own" question.

I followed the OPs "topic" which I viewed as his question, with his comments fleshing it out. No matter, 2014 not far away.

Future prediction: If we are both still alive when the next format comes along and Blu-ray has 90% of the market AND it also is backward compatible we can have this debate again.

[AKORIS]

Originally Posted by Gandalf Stormcrow

I don't think DVDs will be completely phased out any time soon but sometime in the next 2-3 years blu-ray will be the main home media format. Now that CRTs are no longer in production and studios are making a 3D push, HD will become the "cool new thing" to own. Movies like Avatar and Iron Man 2 and such help, of course.

I'll go with your comments-- sounds just about right!

[crxvtec]

One thing it will come to is storage space. i know hdd's are getting huge and cheap but they can still fail. I like to have all my pictures, movies and music on a physical disk. i have 9k pictures, not too many movies and about 3k songs that I have backed up on an external HDD and on disk( it would REALLY suck to lose the pictures). With picture files getting bigger and bigger, BD storage would be the way to go. My wedding pix were on 12 CD's and then I put them on 2 dvd's. Now i can put on 1 BD.

Another thing that will help is portable BD players. I know a 7-15 inch screen I will not see a difference in PQ but it will be the fact that I can watch my Blu rays on the go without having to buy the DVD version. When BD players start showing up in mini vans, that will help push blu ray even more.

DVD will be here for awhile more (at least 5-7 years) but Blu ray will become more accepted as people start to buy HDTV's in the next few years.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by jpthomas27

A rock does not continue to gain speed as it falls until it hits the bottom. Every object has a "terminal velocity", a point at which it no longer gains speed as it falls. It's different for every object and with out gettign into the phyhsics of it all, it depends on the weight and mass of the object. A feather is a very exagerated example of Terminal velocity. Drop one from a cliff or a sky scraper, what happens? It drops very slowely and never gains speed, it reaches it's terminal velocity very quickly because of it's weight and mass.

agree

As much as I understand your intent with this analogy, your comparison is flawed.

not at all, at least as the physics of the analogy work. An object does not need to reach its terminal velocity, and in my analogy, it obviously does not before hitting the ground. If an analogy needs to deal with every and all scenarios analogies would be useless. For example I could say, to what you said above, drop it over water and obviously it hits water before hitting the ground, so saying it hits the ground is flawed, if it hits a wooden boat on the water then it stops there and does not hit the ground.... and even at that, go far enough and the falling object could end up in orbit constantly falling, but never hitting the earth. Since I did not talk about sky scrapers or large cliffs, those examples are immaterial.

And to try and stay on subject here, I think abou 10 years is the best estimate. A couple factors I think that come into play here...

but that is your estimate, the reason it is, IMO, way too big is simple, BD came out in 2006 it is now 2010, in roughly 4 years movies on BD went from 0% to 50%, and BD sales roughly doubled from last year to assume that things will change extremely drastically without any reasons for it does not make sense. Now doubling sales does not necessarily mean doubling market share, and just having a few titles reach 90+% is not enough, but this is it, in reality a person is not likely going to buy the BD and DVD so if he moves and buys the BD chances are he won't buy the DVD. So if a title would sell 50k copies on BD and 50k on DVD this week, if the BD buyers double it will be close to 100k and since the market did not really grow those people would have left DVD and went BD so DVD could be very little. Now don't get me wrong, I don't think we will see BD get close to 100% next year. but my guess if we say titles are 30-50% now in a year they could easily be 60-80% and in two 80%-95%+ and once you are past 95% studios will be dumping DVD because it is no longer cost effective and no one really cares except for some bottom feeders (which means you can’t price it so they will buy while still making money). Which is why I think (assuming like with VHS/DVD that they go with the end of the year) that they will call it quits by Dec 31 2013, there is little chance that movies (except possibly some exceptions) are released on DVD past that point, (the same way that in 2006 there where some movies released n VHS). In order for it to take 10 years you must assume that BD goes from doubeling every year to practically standing still.

1) When DVD came on scene you could see a quality difference without buyinga new TV. For Blu ray to be effective the industry is asking people to not simply buy a new player and a new media, but they also need to buy a new TV in many cases to get the benefit. This will slow the adoption of blu-ray fora large part of the poplulation.

not at all. First of all the TV I had in 97 (since I had it from my University years) only had RF in, so I could either buy a modulator and watch it on ch3-4 or buy a new TV (went with the later) if it would have been a modulator it would have been NTSC standard so not better then VHS (and many did buy modulators later on). If someone wanted 5.1 surround sound that also meant new receiver, speakers and whirring. These where no small expenses. On the other hand if someone has an HDTV (and many do and many upgraded because of the digital transmission change) they don't need a new TV to take full advantage of BD (at least as full as they did with DVD). Also the discussion is not about full advantage of BD but if they have a BD player and buy/rent BDs. Do you really think it makes sense to pay 60-80$ on a DVD player instead of 80-100$ on a BD player?

2) When DVD came on scene the home viewing movie industry basically stayed exactly the same, simply changing media type. In other words, people still went to Blockbuster, rented their movie, watched it in the living room and had to return it the next day. Now not only has the rental industry changed dramatically but people don't simply reant a movie and watch it in the living room. Now many people are just as happy watching it on thier computer with is not HD, so they don't care. Many people use DVDs in thier car, which is not HD, so they don't care.

most of that is not true, many laptops have HD screens, after all you are meant to watch them from inches away (check the resolution), also portable BD players have hit the market, and lastly the person will rarely (if ever) buy for the alternate uses, when they buy they think "I will watch it in my LR (and in the case of some here an HT)" then They also use it in the car, PC.... where ever they want. On the other hand with DC and some BDs including a DVD the person does not even need to make a choice of “will I want to maybe someday use it once in the car), they can buy a BD and use the DVD or DC when and if they need it. While if they buy the DVD they are screwed.

Many people stream or download movies, so they don't care abotu Blu-ray either.

but the discussion is DVD vs BD if people watch movies that are streaming then they are not buying DVDs, which is what DVD needs to survive. And since people that want quality can’t stream quality, that means the guy happy with DVD is most likely to be the one switching.

My point is that there are large parts of the population that simply don't care about Blu-ray becuause it is beyond thier needs for enjoying a movie, and for these reasons it will take longer for Blu-ray to kill DVD than it did for DVD to kill VHS.

but no one needed or cared for DVD over VHS either. My sisters MiL got a DVD player in 2006, because that is when VHS was stopped. My Grand parents still just have a VHS player, but it is never used, the only reason they have that was in the 80's (?) my parents and aunts and uncles got it as a present for them so that we (grand kids) have something to do while we are there and so that they could show them home-movies filmed on VHS tapes (on those humongous camcorders back then)

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

But if you take it to mean " when will studios stop releasing on DVD and many places will only have BDs for sale/rent" then 2-3 years is my guess and it is extremely realistic.

Anthony, you pointed out in one of your own posts that studios were still putting out VHS releases 9 years after the intro of DVD:

https://forum.blu-ray.com/3404713-post8.html

So how is 2 years from now realistic for studios to stop DVD releases?

I predict a longer trail off for DVD than VHS.

We may see some studios exclusively going with combo packs or dual sided discs though to go with one SKU per title.

[Clark Kent]

No credible home media analyst or anyone inside the studios thinks Blu-ray will completely replace DVD for all titles. What is likely to happen as the years progress are major day-and-date releases exclusively go to Blu-ray, while Internet streaming/downloads replace the lower-end titles and television shows that now only end up on DVD.

[mjbethancourt]

I know people in the home-video production and distribution business (no, not porn, you wise-asses) that have no interest in doing blu-ray at all. It is a lot more expensive to produce than DVD.

no, BD adoption has happened, if DVD survives or not it is irrelevent, so if you think I see the demise of DVD because I want BD then no that is not the reason.

Then why do you keep citing BD sales and market-share numbers as evidence of the demise of DVD?

You're really missing the point, Anthony:
all those blu-ray players out there are still DVD players, too. Content makers see this, and therefore continue to make DVDs. That's not a prediction, that's an observation. See, you're thinking strictly in terms of big boys like WB... while they are certainly the largest piece of the pie, they are not the whole pie. Whenever a big studio eventually ditches their DVD presses, that gear is just going to go on Ebay and get bought up and used by a small operation.
Likewise, there are a lot of people who will be fine with DVD and never give it up until they really do stop making it. Unlike VHS, a lot of people do not want to give up their DVD because it still works. In contradiction to what you have said, DVD does offer something over blu-ray: price. It is cheap to make, and cheap to buy, and the world is full of cheap people, especially in a recession that is not ending anytime soon, (no matter what the government keeps telling us).
That is my point: DVD will persist for a good while because it still works, the same way that CDs persist because they still work, (yeah, I know, the trend is towards MP3s, but that doesn't change the fact that CDs are still a widely used because widely supported media format).

You and Rob can laugh all you want about "porn" and "backyard wrestling" as the sole survivors of DVD, but it's still true, there will be minor productions on DVD for a long time to come.
Sure, DVD will fade pretty quickly into a minor consideration, but it will still hang around for the foreseeable future, it's still a perfectly functional personal-use media format, and will be for a long time.

[Beaner666]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

I won't bother with the rest since they tend to be equally as erroneous or ridiculous as your first statement.

I think he brought up some very valid points, the following that he said perfectly explains just about everyone I know:

Originally Posted by BillieCassin

Now, Blu-ray has all that stuff, and as we know the PQ/SQ is much better, but again, to Joe Public, that's not really enough to invest in a new format and new system. Even those that have HDTV's (which is quickly becoming a large amount of people). Most people I know who have HDTV don't have HD service...they watch SD "zoomed in" or "wide". Personally, that gives me a headache almost instantly, but for most people that's enough. And their DVD players look "pretty good" to them.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by FlipperWasIrish

The number of movies and TV shows that are still being produced only on DVD is a big revenue stream. It should not be discounted.

they are not, I explained what I meant by new release. they include both catalogue and new movies. We are also not talking about today but 3 years from now. What you can’t understand is the way the market works. A studio creates something new (be it a new movie for a re-distribution of an older movie) then they replicate it. The store asks for X copies (let's say 100 to keep it simple) the 100 copies go to the store (assuming there are enough disks replicated) the store does not pay for them, if 10 get bought the first week then they pay for the 10 copies, the consignment is for a few months and any agreement allows a certain sent back. Let's say an other 10 sell (bad pricing) during that period and they are allowed to send 50% back, now they send back the 50 they did not sell as well as have to pay for the 30 they have not sold yet. At the end of that period the studio does not care if the movie ever gets sold because the store has paid for it already. Do you think Disney is still waiting to see if Bambi II on VHS will find buyers? do you think if it does, Disney will say "let's release the princess and the frog on VHS, people are still buying it"? It does not affect decision any more.

We will have to agree to disagree here as we have different views on the economics of the studios. While I agree, at some point studios will stop releasing DVDs. At the earliest I don't see this happening at a major studio for 7-10 years. So in 3 years (you) or 10 years (me) we will know if we are both wrong or one of us is correct in predicting the future.

you said 10-20 before (page one) but if you feel you need to come closer to my estimate, that is OK.

When 2014 comes and 5 of the top 10 films of the year are only produced on Blu-ray I will conceed that you were correct in your assumptions. Will you do the same?

yes, I don't have an issue accepting when I am wrong, on the other hand let's say it happens in 2015 so I am off by a year or it is 4 out of 10 in 2014, would it really support your comments "Perhaps in an alternate universe the above could be true.

But, not here on this planet and this reality. Fantasy wishing aside, the current economics just do not support such a quick demise of DVDs. " concerning my guess?

Of course the content is on servers, but millions of DVDs are used to view this content. And no, I am not going to argue that this is the ideal way to do things, it just is what is being done at present.

agree, but again we are talking about the future. Many years ago, you went to a conference/mega-meeting and you would expect a paper copy of presentations (bound in a journal for conferences), A few years ago you would expect a DVD/CD, and sometimes you would get it at the conference (depending if it is more scientific or corporate). Today in many they just give you a piece of paper (or e-mail) with where and when you can DL them (or have a section on a web site with coming soon).

Future prediction: If we are both still alive when the next format comes along and Blu-ray has 90% of the market AND it also is backward compatible we can have this debate again.

not sure what you mean, with 90%, just to put it into perspective VHS stopped as HD media came out (as I pointed out above) so it never had 100% and if you include VOD and other none-physical distribution systems then DVD was never >90%.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by blu2

Anthony, you pointed out in one of your own posts that studios were still putting out VHS releases 9 years after the intro of DVD:

https://forum.blu-ray.com/3404713-post8.html

So how is 2 years from now realistic for studios to stop DVD releases?

I predict a longer trail off for DVD than VHS.

We may see some studios exclusively going with combo packs or dual sided discs though to go with one SKU per title.

I am human and I can be wrong and it is a prediction so that makes it even more so (what if the world ends in 2012, I can't see that coming and use it in my estimate). But BD has been out for 4 years now, in 3 years it will make it 7 years and if we go with end of year like they did* with DVD , DVD ended Dec 2005 , so that makes it 8 years and 9 months, here we are talking 7.5 years (with an assumption of dec 2013) is it that hard to believe that BD will do it " a year" faster especially since BD players are penetrating the market faster then DVD players did?

* it was in the news that Jan 1 2006 there would be no more VHS releases, but like always there can be delays and stuff and so some did come out in 2006

[mjbethancourt]

Tape was a terrible technology, in all its forms. Consumers were happy to ditch it as soon as replacement technologies were offered; and in music, a lot of consumers skipped tape altogether because it was so awful. The fate of one particular tape-based product (VHS) is a terrible analogy for something as well-conceived as DVD, or any other laser-optic media.

The fate of all laser-optic media is intrinsically tied together through backward/cross-compatibility, both in use and in manufacture. DVD, and blu-ray, and CD, laserdisc, and any future laser-optic media, will all die out together at some point in the future, when that technology is convincingly superseded.

I would bet money that in 2020, if blu-rays are still being made, then DVDs are also still being made.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by mjbethancourt

See, you're thinking strictly in terms of big boys like WB... while they are certainly the largest piece of the pie, they are not the whole pie. Whenever a big studio eventually ditches their DVD presses, that gear is just going to go on Ebay and get bought up and used by a small operation.

for someone who is a self proclaimed expert because "you know people" you don't even know that studios don't own presses. They are always farmed out to replicators. The only company that owns a studio and a replicator (but they are distinct divisions) is Sony

Likewise, there are a lot of people who will be fine with DVD and never give it up until they really do stop making it. Unlike VHS, a lot of people do not want to give up their DVD because it still works.

a lot of people did not want to get rid of VHS either because it worked, it also worked better because until very late in the DVD life cycle if they wanted to tape something, they still needed a VHS player.

In contradiction to what you have said, DVD does offer something over blu-ray: price.

notr at all, you are the self proclaim expert. Give us the exact price difference.

the same way that CDs persist because they still work, (yeah, I know, the trend is towards MP3s, but that doesn't change the fact that CDs are still a widely used because widely supported media format).

yes, CD is still king but it has advantages, it is not proprietary, it is not encrypted, it is easy to share, it is higher quality.

You and Rob can laugh all you want about "porn" and "backyard wrestling" as the sole survivors of DVD, but it's still true, there will be minor productions on DVD for a long time to come.

No, I disagree with Rob, porn won't be one of the lasts to remain on DVD. It is an extremely competitive field, that is why as small independent studios go they jumped on HD and BD very early on, plus I think a lot of it is just off the internet

Sure, DVD will fade pretty quickly into a minor consideration, but it will still hang around for the foreseeable future, it's still a perfectly functional personal-use media format, and will be for a long time.

but cheap and minor consideration don't go together, expensive and minor consideration do but that is a different subject. That is why LD lasted long as a niche product. A movie has a lot of fixed costs (first making a movie, making the transfer, author the disks....) the more you sell the less of an issue they are but as numbers shrink so does the distribution and so the fixed costs become more nad more important. It also assumes something that is extremely wrong. That it won't affect sales if it is DVD only. I know that I am not the only one, but I have stopped buying DVDs, everything old that I want I own on DVD, everything new I don't want on DVD. That is the problem, why would I go out of my way to buy an unknown film that is on DVD when there are more good films that I can afford on BD so each week I need to limit what I buy?.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by blu2

Anthony, you pointed out in one of your own posts that studios were still putting out VHS releases 9 years after the intro of DVD:

https://forum.blu-ray.com/3404713-post8.html

So how is 2 years from now realistic for studios to stop DVD releases?

I predict a longer trail off for DVD than VHS.

We may see some studios exclusively going with combo packs or dual sided discs though to go with one SKU per title.

Anthony P said it but I want to reiterate.

In spite of all the anti-Blu-Ray "journalism", Blu-Ray is growing faster than DVD did, in all ways except for catalog titles (and thus, total revenue/revenue %).

As time progresses, this will matter less and less.

Thus I don't see a problem at all with the claim that DVD will die off one year faster than VHS did. It's not like he said it'll be by year's end.

And I too know a lot of people who had no A/V benefit to DVD over VHS, on an RF-in connector the difference was negligible (about the same as Blu-Ray vs. DVD on a 15 inch TV).