81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

3:1 should be 33% on the otyher hand I ma sure that it would also not be that precise. But if it was 25% then they would have said 4:1

I think you may want to check your math.
75/25 is the same as 3/1

80/20 is the same as 4/1

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by atomik kinder

I always hated math, so what do you figure Ratatouille sold? I guess we will find out Friday.

Unfortunally there is now way of knowing what Ratatouille BD sold form the data disclosed.

[Anthony P]

Anthony 3:1 means that for every three copies Shrek 3 HD DVD sold 1 copy of Oceans 11 was sold

yes it does (well Oceans 13 not 11). Now look at what you wrote
"Oceans 11 HD DVD sold 25% of Shrek 3"

it sold 25% of Shrek3+Oceans not 25% of Shrek. If Shrek is the whole then 3*33=99~100 and Oceans has 1*33=33

I think you may want to check your math.
75/25 is the same as 3/1

well I have a Masters degree in Math and taught it at a university, what are your credentials?

75:25 =3:1 but 75 is not 100, and what we need is 100.

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

yes it does (well Oceans 13 not 11). Now look at what you wrote
"Oceans 11 HD DVD sold 25% of Shrek 3"

it sold 25% of Shrek3+Oceans not 25% of Shrek. If Shrek is the whole then 3*33=99~100 and Oceans has 1*33=33



well I have a Masters degree in Math and taught it at a university, what are your credentials?

75:25 =3:1 but 75 is not 100, and what we need is 100.

We're talking ratios.
75BDs sold compared to 25 HD-DVDs sold. 75/25 ratio = 3/1 ratio

75BDs + 25 HD-DVDs = 100 units

Edit: Whoops! My bad! You are correct, sir. I concede defeat and I need to get some sleep. I will leave my posts as they are as a reminder to myself to never mix insomnia and mathematics.

[Terjyn]

"Real" math:

Shrek 3: 100
Oceans HD-DVD: 33.3.

Shrek 3: 100
Oceans overall: 85.5

85.5 - 33.3 = 52.2

52.2 : 33.3 = 1.57:1 in favor of Blu-Ray.

[MrBogey]

Assuming 100 equals baseline.

100 would be Shrek
33 would be Oceans 13 HD

Now they threw a combined total out there for BD/HD DVD with Oceans next.

83 would be Oceans BD and HD


That means it's probably:
1- Shrek -100
2 Ratatooie ->50
3 Oceans 13 BD -50
4 Oceans 13 HD -33

And so on and on.

At least if I understand this right then the top 4 spots just about nullify each other out and we'll get a very close percentage for the week. HD DVD might edge it out but not by much.

[Terjyn]

If you look at the normal numbers posted in Home Media Magazine, if there really is a 3:1 it means Shrek got 100. Oceans HD-DVD got 33.3.

If Shrek 3 outsold Oceans combined by 17%, then Oceans got 100/1.17 = 85.5.

85.5 combined - 33.3 HD-DVD = 52.2 Blu-Ray.

[darinp2]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

If you look at the normal numbers posted in Home Media Magazine, if there really is a 3:1 it means Shrek got 100. Oceans HD-DVD got 33.3.

If Shrek 3 outsold Oceans combined by 17%, then Oceans got 100/1.17 = 85.5.

85.5 combined - 33.3 HD-DVD = 52.2 Blu-Ray.

The article at the Hollywood Reporter doesn't say it outsold those by 17%. It says:

...total sales were about 17% less than the HD DVD-only version of "Shrek the Third."

So, if that is right it would be 83, not 85.5.

Is there a different place that said it outsold those by 17%? It is a common mistake for people to think that 17% less means 17% more in the other direction, when it is more like 20% more, so it wouldn't surprise me if an article swapped those around. Just like with exchange rates with money where most people seem to think the same percentage applies in both directions, when it is from the reciprocal, like you did.

--Darin

[Iron Man]

Of course Blu-ray has great weeks with big exclusive titles like Ratatouille but it's going to be exciting to see the numbers for the Oceans movies.

Hopefully it will show at least a 2:1 lead for Blu-ray.

[LynxFX]

Why do people keep buying into Shrek? I just don't get it. The first was cute enough, ha ha some pop culture references, ok then. 2nd was more of the same, less cute, already dated itself by the time it was released. 3rd is just god aweful yet every single year they are released it tops Pixar's releases which are quantum leaps ahead in story telling and animation. Monster's Inc., The Incredibles, Ratatouille.

[Beta-guy]

Originally Posted by LynxFX

Why do people keep buying into Shrek? I just don't get it. The first was cute enough, ha ha some pop culture references, ok then. 2nd was more of the same, less cute, already dated itself by the time it was released. 3rd is just god aweful yet every single year they are released it tops Pixar's releases which are quantum leaps ahead in story telling and animation. Monster's Inc., The Incredibles, Ratatouille.

I enjoyed the whole series the 2nd and 3rd didn't live upto the first granted, but I enjoyed it still...

[Robmx]

Is anybody noticing that we have been outsold on Amazon.com the last 3 days in a row? Never seen this before ! Be prepared 2 weeks from now for those numbers they won't be good at all !

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

Good thing we have lots of good new releases coming out... this Christmas we are in for a fight !

[atomik kinder]

Originally Posted by Robmx

Is anybody noticing that we have been outsold on Amazon.com the last 3 days in a row? Never seen this before ! Be prepared 2 weeks from now for those numbers they won't be good at all !

http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/

Good thing we have lots of good new releases coming out... this Christmas we are in for a fight !

They are giving away free movies with the purchase of an HD DVD player. Remember, Amazon is only one store and it doesn't make much of a difference. If it was Best Buy that had a BOGO or the same deal, I would be worried. Look at when they gave away Heros just a while ago with the purchase of the add on for the 360, that showed up, but not very high. Amazon isn't the biggest seller of HDM. No one should go basing their opinions on what the week is going to be like because of Amazon. Remember a few months back when Premonition came out? It was the #1 title that week. It never even hit the top 100 on Amazon. Remember when the PS3 first dropped in price and Amazon gave away Casino Royale? It hit number one for a whole day on Amazon, then they gave away Resident Evil and that hit number one. Neither of them even showed up on the top 10.

Then for those who seem to be thinking BD is going to lose last week because Shrek hit number one of HD DVD sales, well, you don't know that Ratatouille was not the number one seller over all or Shrek. You are just making assumptions. Also basing your guess on just the top four or five or even ten won't get you the right numbers either, because the Nielsens doesn't do it that way. They take into account EVERY disc that is sold at EVERY retailer that reports to them.

Just don't go basing your projections on Amazon.

[JAGUAR1977]

Originally Posted by T-Wrecks

that Sony is the "Vanguard" for the Blu-ray front and is selling PS3s to ensure an install base so that other companies can, in fact, maintain a profit margin down the road?

Does no one else get that Sony is taking big losses short term AND saturating the market so that its business partners can build and sell standalones that make them money 6-12 months down the line?.

Sorry, but the way it's going there won't be a market worth fighting for 6-12 months down the line, HD-DVD will either have won or there'll be a stalemate that will kill both formats stone dead, right now the BDA most certainly does not have a policy that will win this war within 12 months.

The BDA seem to be 6 months behind the game, by the time they get their act in order it's going to be too late.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by AlaskaDon

I also agree that a huge blow could be dealt to HD DVD with a nice price drop on the 1.0 players, but considering that BDA members want to operate as a team, I think the decision would have to be made as a group. The one that could most easily do this would be Panasonic with their 1.1 player already on the market. They could easily drop $100 off the BD-10 in order to get rid of the remaining inventory. But if they did that, Sharp is gonna say "Hey, wait a minute..." and you have discension in the ranks. It's a complicated situation which Toshiba has not been forced to deal with since they are all by their lonesome. I guess the best thing would be if all the manufacturers could agree to collectively take one for the team. But why not? The profile 1.0 players are basically going to be considered obsolete anyway.

I don't see the political dimension suggested here. Panasonic is _competing_ with Sharp. They are both members of the BDA but still are after the same consumer dollar (and pound, euro etc.).

If Panasonic were to slash the price on their 1.0 players that would be a tremendous boost for Blu-ray whatever Sharp et al. might think about it. Would also generate some bright PR for Panasonic. "News release: Panasonic Leads the Way in Blu-ray Profiles, Pricing" etc.

[Neo65]

Originally Posted by LynxFX

Why do people keep buying into Shrek? I just don't get it. The first was cute enough, ha ha some pop culture references, ok then. 2nd was more of the same, less cute, already dated itself by the time it was released. 3rd is just god aweful yet every single year they are released it tops Pixar's releases which are quantum leaps ahead in story telling and animation. Monster's Inc., The Incredibles, Ratatouille.

Actually, by the non-announcement from Paramount on shrek3 numbers, I'd say Shrek3 did not sell well at all, but as far as animation goes, it might have done reasonable numbers. Quick math show Ocean's 13-BD as a single disk is roughly 50% of Shrek3, Rat is more than Ocean's 13-BD.

There is the Ocean box set that should also be on the list. My feeling is the generally big selling warner titles will fall in the 60:40 to 67:33 range, and Ocean13 alone looks like it's roughly 50:33 which makes it closer to 60
:40.

It would be curious what Shrek3 did. Going by the roughly at least 50% drop by week1, if Rat was > 50% of Shrek3, that meant Rat week1 probably outsold Shrek3's week1. But the drop in numbers is speculative --- note that other titles can easily drop to 1/4 or 1/3 of week1 numbers.

[OokieSpookie]

Originally Posted by atomik kinder

They are giving away free movies with the purchase of an HD DVD player. Remember, Amazon is only one store and it doesn't make much of a difference. If it was Best Buy that had a BOGO or the same deal, I would be worried. Look at when they gave away Heros just a while ago with the purchase of the add on for the 360, that showed up, but not very high. Amazon isn't the biggest seller of HDM. No one should go basing their opinions on what the week is going to be like because of Amazon. Remember a few months back when Premonition came out? It was the #1 title that week. It never even hit the top 100 on Amazon. Remember when the PS3 first dropped in price and Amazon gave away Casino Royale? It hit number one for a whole day on Amazon, then they gave away Resident Evil and that hit number one. Neither of them even showed up on the top 10.

Then for those who seem to be thinking BD is going to lose last week because Shrek hit number one of HD DVD sales, well, you don't know that Ratatouille was not the number one seller over all or Shrek. You are just making assumptions. Also basing your guess on just the top four or five or even ten won't get you the right numbers either, because the Nielsens doesn't do it that way. They take into account EVERY disc that is sold at EVERY retailer that reports to them.

Just don't go basing your projections on Amazon.

I will say that the free movies is not the whole reason.
The A3 is in the top 5 and the A30 is even at #53, Planet Earth HD is #11 in all dvds, the dvd version is #1, and the blu version is at #71 or so.
Not everything can be blamed on the sale, and I do hope that the BDA is not hiding behind that assumption and the install base security blanket.

[Neo65]

If you meant the amazon list, I've been watching amazon since 6 months ago, and I can't even remember a time when the rankings on there match the nielsen rankings.

The data is entertaining, but if they correlate to the weekly nielsen numbers, that would be 1 first in all the weeks we've been watching the numbers.

Tomorrow's result with Shrek3 is HD DVD's 2nd big chance to come out 1st on the nielsen numbers. If they succeed, it would be the first week in 2007 that hd dvd outsold blu-ray. The next week would potentially be Die Hard's turn on the blu side. After that, we have PotC for blu and then we have Bourne for red.

Outside of that, the other movies likely won't have a chance of going near 100k in week1.

The reason why the blu studios have the bogo sales is likely to keep the bragging rights to outselling the red format every week of 2007. Note how deflating the knowledge that with NPD numbers there were at least 9 weeks starting mid june when BD standlone players outsold HD DVD players by units --- that was an eye opener even to the extreme-fringe blu supporters, and something many red supporters still don't believe.

Btw, I predicted that hd dvd will take 2 weeks in 2007 to 50 weeks for BD. My prediction could still be right, but if Shrek3 doesn't take this week, then Bourne is the last chance for red in 2007 (for the weekly sales shootout).

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

Sorry, but the way it's going there won't be a market worth fighting for 6-12 months down the line, HD-DVD will either have won or there'll be a stalemate that will kill both formats stone dead, right now the BDA most certainly does not have a policy that will win this war within 12 months.

The BDA seem to be 6 months behind the game, by the time they get their act in order it's going to be too late.

And you base this on all the weeks Blu-Ray has lost, right?

Blu-Ray has widened it's lead every single week this year. Every...single...week.

You are buying into HD-DVD FUD. The look and sound of "just wait until..."

[dialog_gvf]

All the Dolphins need to do is win one game, and everyone will think they are heading to the Superbowl?